Why Rookie Picks Are the Most Important Asset in Dynasty

[@PurePotentialFF]

Use my promo code PURE10 for 10% off ANY plan at fantasypoints.com/plans!

[@kevinblue1976]

Congrats on 2k! Most slept on dynasty KZbinr thanks for the great vids

[@PurePotentialFF]

@@kevinblue1976 thanks 🥲

[@sirspook4374]

While I agree, I think the answer is compiling those picks for a year or two to get major buying power, supplement your roster by buying vets/stars to move into competing, and then bet against other managers 1sts when you reduce capital. I also like picking early in rookie drafts and using late 1sts in drafts. Not as interested in mid 1sts as they cost more than late 1sts and are normally capped in value gain. Zay flowers at the 1.12 last year and penix jr at 2.01 are value spike swings that im referring to. I bought jj, breece, waddle, ect on injury years from competing teams using that capital buildup and now i feel like i have the best competing roster in the league with those guys complementing vets such as henry, kelce, ect. To top it off, the 25 1st i have is from a fragile team. Balance is the answer, and looking for opportunity

[@tylerklepek4716]

This is my favorite dynasty content show. Great content. Keep it up! Going to your finance example. I think the baseline picks are similar to bond duration (bond risk metric based on interest sensitivity). The further the picks are from maturity (The more risky they are- uncertainty in price). As the future picks get closer to the end of the season (the intrinsic value becomes more defined). I love getting contenders 1sts - 2-3 years out if I think they could bust soon. Especially at discounted prices. Those managers normally price those marshmallows too low!

[@monsieurmac25]

Nice video. Although I never had the terminology you use for roster construction, everything you suggested really resonates with my approach to drafting and building rosters. I just need to consider the idea of buying super far firsts vs the risk of the league folding before I see the benefit of that pick. With friends or coworkers, it’s not an issue. With random leagues, it’s something in the back of my mind so I mostly focus on upcoming and the year after firsts. So right now, I have 5 25 firsts and 5 26 firsts but I haven’t looked to acquire 27 firsts. I use my 27 picks for equalizers (2nd, 3rd, 4th upgrade/downgrade to finish a trade kind of thing)

[@parkerphelps5202]

Great video as always! You mainly touched on future 1sts as the example for rookie picks. I think it would be helpful in a future video if you touched on some strategies for how to best utilize 2nd and 3rd round rookie picks as the hit rate continues to decrease for those players.

[@Reekstr]

Keep up the great videos. I’m excited to see your ranks in the future. I hope it’s somewhat soon. I have my rookie draft Aug 10. I’ve got the 1.02, 1.08 (mine), and 2.01 in a 10 team 1qb league

[@PurePotentialFF]

@@Reekstr not sure on the timeline, but I have done a few videos on the rookie class. 1.02 should be easy at least: MHJ or Nabers

[@Reekstr]

@@PurePotentialFF yeah that’s for sure. It’s the 1.08 and 2.01 that I’m debating. I’d hope someone offers a 2025 1st if they really like someone here. It’s a win win as it’s basically a first and this class is deep af

[@Garrett_Builds]

Nice video! Would love to see examples of trades you are making on competitive, middle, and rebuilding teams using these concepts.

[@bennettmoore4619]

That's how I started my dynasty career... Traded two of my first round picks, I think a second too. For the most part I regret it... I got Hockenson with one 1st, and DJ Moore for another 1st (trades done back in 2021 and 2022)

[@hunterfritts4498]

Best content I’ve seen. Love the reasoning behind base pick value. Can’t wait to see your rankings? Any rough eta?

[@PurePotentialFF]

@@hunterfritts4498 thanks! Hopefully by mid-August

[@brett4932]

Very quality topic. I’d be interested to see some additional commentary on the statistically optimal time to buy young (not necessarily rookie) players as a secondary aspect of this. In our perfect scenario we have excess accrued capital (valuable picks) but in order to compete we obviously need to use some of that capital and compile tangible assets. My thoughts immediately go to first and second year players. I’d love to see a study on ROI for that group with the ultimate goal being to determine if it’s better to invest in year two players at an elevated premium/cost with the trade off that you have less risk because you have a better idea of boom/bust potential and probability. I.E. higher cost but longer and more remaining intrinsic value. We can quite confidently determine that your base pick thesis discussion is the optimal capital accrual methodology. But the secondary and largely more important factor is how we spend that capital and the ROI we’re generating with it. Because if we only use capital to accrue more capital we can never win. I’d also be interested in seeing a video topic discussing some type of super tank strategy. Where you not only rank one year, but optimally tank two-three years in a row. BUT the kicker being you’re selling the 1.01, 1.02 etc. in your tank years for obscene draft capital at its most valuable time. An example being something like flipping 24’ 1.01 (Caleb or marv) for 3 future firsts + something else. Multiple years in a row. In theory if you could pull off those returns 2 or 3 years in a row you could accrue absurd levels of capital and truly truly create a dynasty. Great video!

[@PurePotentialFF]

You're definitely right that value accrual is only part of the equation. We still have to build a team. That's a topic I'll think on for sure. As for the "super tank" concept, I addressed the dangers of multi-year rebuilds here: kzbin.info/www/bejne/mpqwmnp7bMt9nNUsi=yDXB95EbcfK-IR7z

[@Perolikewhy]

Absolutely love your videos. Would you trade away Lamar and DJ Moore, for Love Olave and Demario? Kyler is my QB2

[@PurePotentialFF]

@@Perolikewhy Olave isn’t enough of an upgrade for me to move off Lamar.

[@sirspook4374]

Kyler and dj moore for love and olave is interesting. Demario is a fun swing, but isnt a factor in the trade value

[@hismightyshield4127]

Traded singletary for a second and third, traded jones Akers and the 2 and a 3 I got for Monty a 1st and a 4th

[@patrickmac1]

How do you feel about trading 2nd year WRs for future picks?

[@PurePotentialFF]

@@patrickmac1 check this out: kzbin.info/www/bejne/h5e4pmmiq7aVqZYsi=pgOBCAVMaFEpMCFv

[@owen730]

Hey dude I'm starting up a dynasty league and will be a first year commish. Do you have plans to make a video on making a dynasty league with the best scoring settings that will last a long time?

[@PurePotentialFF]

@@owen730 check this out: kzbin.info/www/bejne/pHq9dp1sdpupobc

[@owen730]

Good looks man thank you!​@@PurePotentialFF

[@jctroller83]

So buy 1sts from bad managers always because their dice are weighted in your favor; and buy 1sts from good managers as far into the future as possible to make for a more fair dice. Good stuff.

[@PurePotentialFF]

@@jctroller83 yeah, good way to put it

[@nicolara7464]

In a startup draft i received an offer of first, second, third and fourth round of 2025 rookie draft for mine startup pick round 9 and 10, what do you think?

[@Peyterrr]

So how about with players that we just drafted in round 3 and 4? Do we sell them for what we bought them for, to keep sustained value? Or keep them for the chance of getting even more?

[@PurePotentialFF]

@@Peyterrr no, I love rolling the dice on 3rd/4th round rookie picks. The risk is extremely low, but the payoff can be great if you hit on a Puka or Dell type.

[@Peyterrr]

@@PurePotentialFF that was my thought as well, so I'm glad I'm on the right track for that.

[@amstel5468]

Great video my friend and I agree with most of what you said but sometimes grabbing the guy who has already proven they can perform on an elite level is the right move, especially if they're under 25..

[@PurePotentialFF]

@@amstel5468 oh yeah, definitely not suggesting we avoid all young players haha

[@kyleb8570]

I like the study . Really interesting

[@marcoprospero3435]

Hey Paul- when are you putting out dynasty ranks? 👀

[@PurePotentialFF]

I'm hoping to have them available by mid-August

[@coltonstrickland3185]

Loving your content! Fresh prospective. I have a trade question if you’re willing to answer it. 10 team start 9 superflex. I was offered Christian kirk + 25 1st for tank dell. I have puka, waddle, dell, cooper, jsn, odunze, sutton, palmer and worthy at wr. Would you entertain that trade as a contender? Im going back and forth on it

[@PurePotentialFF]

@@coltonstrickland3185 take the pick!

[@brotherleo4090]

So, is it wise to accept offer to trade z flowers for 2026 1st rd, and noah fant? Safe to say flowers will just get better while unknown player for 2026...

[@PurePotentialFF]

@@brotherleo4090 I’d say that’s fair on both sides. The pick is technically safer since it can’t get injured and will definitely gain value, but if Flowers can help your team now it’s fine to hold him. He showed enough as a rookie that I think his worst case outside injury is that he plateaus and ends up in that Christian Kirk/Diontae Johnson range of low-end WR2 scoring.

[@brandyns8836]

how do you feel about pollard and a 2025 proj late 2nd and a 2025 proj late 3rd, for gus edwards and a 2025 proj late 1st. Also pollard for edwards and a proj late 2nd might work too. 12 team superflex

[@PurePotentialFF]

@@brandyns8836 definitely taking the 1st there

[@brandyns8836]

@@PurePotentialFF thats what I thought too, probably gonna pull the trigger. Love the videos!

[@drakealvarez-cates6845]

Hey Paul, love your content! Would you trade 3x ‘25 1sts for Marvin Harrison on a stacked roster with 6x 1sts thru ‘26? No other elite receiver is available.

[@PurePotentialFF]

@@drakealvarez-cates6845 in 1QB, I think you could justify it. In SF, I probably wouldn’t give up that much.

[@SrivastavaMan81390]

Great analysis again! That potential is pure! Got a current offer to trade away Joe burrow for Brock purdy, 2025 mid-late 1st, Marshawn Lloyd, and Troy Franklin. Thoughts?

[@PurePotentialFF]

@@SrivastavaMan81390 that’s close, but I’d hold Burrow there

[@PerkinsRooster]

In the start you argue that rookies are insulated for value but then at the end you present data that indicates they are risky. Can you flesh that out for me a bit? Thanks.

[@PurePotentialFF]

@@PerkinsRooster towards the end, I’m specifically arguing that young players that aren’t rookies are risky. Rookies are sort of their own thing, and they tend to be more insulated due to lower expectations.

[@PerkinsRooster]

Thank you for the clarification

[@OutdoorSnail]

Who’s worth a 27 1st in SF .5ppr

[@PurePotentialFF]

I wouldn't trade a 27 1st right now because you're very unlikely to get fair value for it.

[@MuscleMTG]

The pokeball...

[@OutdoorSnail]

Lmao comes out a day after I trade my 25 1st for Deebo and 26 1 for rice 💀

[@marcokreutner1060]

🤯

[@Bindles90]

💸💸💸

[@jaredkeeney1115]

Nerd