Why the Housing Crash Never Happened

[@economicshelp]

Why high house prices damaged the economy. kzbin.info/www/bejne/pZezYYqEZrd-nKM

[@GillerHeston]

In the UK, individuals living in cars due to partial homelessness result from a complex interplay of factors. High housing costs relative to income, stagnant wages, and income inequality drive this issue. Job loss, weak social support, medical expenses, evictions, and lack of affordable housing also contribute, while systemic problems and inadequate policies further perpetuate the phenomenon.

[@rogerwheelers4322]

Considering the present situation, diversifying by shifting investments from real estate to financial markets or gold is recommended, despite potential future home price drops. Given prevailing mortgage rates and economic uncertainty, this move is prudent, particularly due to stricter mortgage regulations. Seeking advice from a knowledgeable independent financial advisor is advisable for those seeking guidance.

[@joshbarney114]

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[@FabioOdelega876]

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[@joshbarney114]

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[@FabioOdelega876]

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[@daedaluxe]

Easily the most underrated channel on yt, keep doing amazing work!

[@jasbindersingh2441]

Not a crash but a slow descent. I've never seen so many reduced asking prices on right move, and in my part of Essex for flats ,they've definitely dropped.

[@beemerdek]

Nobody wants a flat. That's why

[@HJM49125]

loads of recent SOLD STC in my area in the South of England. Mostly properties 25-45 years old, less so new builds that come with estate management charges. Flats...no one wants them

[@gordon1201]

​@@beemerdekplenty of people want them. Just not at these insane prices... There are millions of young people early in their careers wanting to own their own place. The problem is that all these flats are starter homes being sold at prices that you'd want to spend on a proper house when you have a family. The market is totally distorted due to the fact that people NEED a place to live, so they accept the higher prices to get a place of their own. Doesn't mean they're worth it. This is called inelastic demand

[@Ozman676]

The Crash is coming, don't be fooled. prepare yourselves.

[@jasbindersingh2441]

@beemerdek what's wrong with a flat ? The ones I'm talking about have a 1500 quid a yr servuce charge amd 250 quid land rent.... a yr. Those prices ain't gone up in years And Labour.....Will probably reform the fk out of rip off leasehold anyway.

[@kenville1429]

Always enjoy your videos and analysis. People talk about a “housing ladder” but I don’t think that exists anymore. If you can buy a house, the gap between a 2 and 3 bed, or.a 3 or 4 bed is so large that the build up of equity still can’t reach it. Plus stagnant wages also compounds this problem.

[@annemoore4461]

I plan to retire at 62 in another country outside the US that is free, safe and very cheap with a high quality of life. I could fully just rely on only my SS if I wanted to when that times arrives but I'll also have at least one pension, a 403 (b) and a very prolific lnvestment account with my Abby Joseph Cohen my FA. Retiring comfortably in the US these days is almost impossible. I honestly don't understand why people don't move to another country when they get older in retirement. It seems everybody has excuses for almost anything to not take action to better their situation.

[@dilara4130]

I know this lady you just mentioned. Abby Joseph Cohen Services is a portfolio manager and investment advisor. She gained recognition as a former employee at Goldman Sachs; a renowned investor she is. Abby Joseph Cohen has demonstrated expertise in investment strategies and has been involved in managing portfolios and providing guidance to clients.

[@dilara4130]

@ahlfieldmontalto her name is 'ABBY JOSEPH COHEN SERVICES'. Just research the name. You'd find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.

[@ohmakure4716]

Abby Joseph Cohen hooked me up with a late-stage fund that got me in on private shares of some hot companies before they hit the market or blew up. Those investments totally paid off when the companies went public and their stocks shot up. Now, I'm stoked because I'm heading into retirement with almost a million bucks in my portfolio.

[@moisheshekelberg7632]

Scam thread

[@Jonnyicey]

In my local area ive never seen as many houses for sale, many have been on over 6 months and had multiple price drops.

[@andrewtaylor6737]

Don't mention this, all the homeowners replying to the threads on here are crapping themselves! Clueless springs to mind!!

[@jayc342009]

Housing shouldn't be an investment asset, people who own more than 2 houses should be taxed heavily for it.

[@369dabbler]

@@jayc342009bit late

[@Draggonny]

​@@jayc342009We already have taxes that target landlords with small numbers of properties but these apparently do nothing to property management companies that own 4 or more properties or holiday lets. Instead of encouraging small landlords to sell to owner occupiers it's encouraging them to Airbnb or sell to big companies. To make a big change we need to target the biggest property portfolios.

[@user-hs4ei27]

Interest rate will stay above 4% for the next 10 years

[@100Noddy]

Average rental cost £1300.00 a month. That is insane, I can live on less than £700/month in a Band D house and run a car. Youngsters do not stand a chance. Bring in rent control and build more social housing.

[@ep1929]

Yes I'm same, £670 per month total living costs also with a cheap car on a band C house.

[@TheWhitehawker]

I also live in a band D house £233 per month , but no car and would struggle to live on £700/month when taking household maintenance plus recent dental and medical bills into account. Rents are high, but only in line with house prices which have soared over the last 25 years as people have seen property as a good investment, me included.

[@JackGreen-gh6sw]

@100Noddy you ignore the most important fact that is immigration. Do you understand supply and demand? Demand of 1.2million new ppl every 2 years Supply of only 250 000 new houses every 2 years.... If you don't addres the elephant in the room, you will NEVER stop the rising prices. Vote REFORM to reduce immigration

[@voice.of.reason]

Rent controls never work and only make landlords sell up making less rentals available. Its typical thick socialist thinking

[@Lesley_Snipes]

Rent control doesn't work. Just means landlord will make initial rent higher

[@AM_o2000]

Transaction volumes are considerably lower and the people who are transacting are overpaying muppets. On paper, it looks like everything's broadly OK, but one has to consider how representative of the market's health the figures are when transaction levels are so diminished.

[@atilla4352]

I doubt houses prices will see fall because there will be always corporations, big companies to buy them off and create renters. We are heading toward a cyberpunk future where corporate will be in charge of everything

[@seabreeze4559]

this is why landlords are the problem for residential, ban unearned income altogether instead

[@moisheshekelberg7632]

​@seabreeze4559 careful, that statement is awfully close to antisemitic 😂

[@philiphall8325]

The only solution I can see is more social rented housing to break the business model . They keep saying the BTL model is broken already but I don't see it

[@c46236]

the corporations will flee, running out like rats immediately the conditions for a deep recession are meet.

[@InvestgoldUK]

In terms of gold, the housing crash has been massive since 2005 and that's what we need to seriously measure it against, real money. The major issue at the moment is salaries have not caught up yet.

[@philipjamesparsons]

House prices round where I live have been in the Doldrums for a couple of years. Demand props up the prices, but affordability keeps them from falling. Lots of renovation projects advertised as top money and going nowhere. Yet, the money I have in index tracker funds has gained 25%+ in that time.

[@Definetly_not_a_BOT]

Too many youngsters want to play the losing house game in the UK. I dont get why more people dont leave tbh. We didnt want to become slaves to a morgage for decades for low quality houses. I think we were lucky that we could leave easily.

[@SuperStargazer666]

I want to leave, after Brexit it’s much harder

[@petersmith9689]

In 1970/71 a semi-detached house in west London cost £6,000. In 1970/71 a civil servant at EO grade earned £2,000 a year. In 2024 the same house costs £700,000, and today's EO civil servant earns £30,000. The financial burden is about 8 times greater. We have been slowly and silently screwed over, somewhere along the line.

[@garethwilliams4467]

but you forget the house will be a lot better than 71. Central heating, double glazing etc ... not a like for like comparison

[@jerrycampbell-ut9yf]

I think it's time to make it more appealing for potential buyers. Real estate can be quite the rollercoaster! the stress and uncertainty are getting to me. I think I'll cut rents to attract potential buyers and exit the market, but i'm at crossroads if to allocate the entire $680k liquidity value to my stock portfolio?

[@Peterl4290]

"Overall, buyers hold a lot of the cards right now, and sellers are having to give out more concessions to close a deal." All the best, buying on sale is actually one of the best ways to invest in stocks, and advisors are ideally suited for such task

[@larrypaul-cw9nk]

Until the Fed clamps down even further I think we're going to see hysteria due to rampant inflation. If you are in cross roads or need sincere advise on the best moves to take now with financial markets will be best you seek a fin-professional with fiduciary responsibilities who knows about mortgage-backed securities for proper guidance.

[@sabastinenoah]

this sounds considerable! think you know any advisors i can get on the phone with? i'm in dire need of proper portfolio allocation

[@larrypaul-cw9nk]

Her name is “ Annette Christine Conte'' can't divulge much. Most likely, the internet should have her basic info, you can research if you like

[@sabastinenoah]

I just googled her and I'm really impressed with her credentials; I reached out to her since l need all the assistance l can get. I just scheduled a caII.

[@MrStanneken]

Well researched, well referenced, coherent analysis well presented. I wish all of KZbin was like this.

[@SandymoorFerrariClub]

Having bought houses a few times and rented more than 10 properties between the age of 18-35, another factor which tends to push prices for renting and buying houses up is this: There are a lot of twats around who are so insistent on getting their 'dream house/flat' that they will gazump you without hesitation, pushing the prices up. There are far fewer who have the guts to low-ball the seller/landlord and risk walking away without securing the house if it means they have the chance to get a lower price. Yes, in some areas it might be investors pushing the prices up but in most areas it's largely due to house buyers/tenants having less gumption than landlords and agents.

[@michaeledwards8079]

there is another side to the argument, if a property is bought for £200,000 with a 10% deposit of £20,000 and an interest only mortgage over 5 years fixed at 5% gives a payment of £750 per month , but the same property fetches £1000 rent on the open market for year 1, year 2 rent goes up to £1050, year 3 £1100, year 4, £1200 and year 5 £1300 per month, so who is better off financially

[@andrewtaylor6737]

lol, you haven't factored in all the maintenance to the mortgaged property. Hopefully interest rates will continue to climb also, as they're still to low to sustain a successful economy!

[@Metro6am]

@@andrewtaylor6737 maintenance is way lower than rent vs own comparisons allow for

[@bhatra10]

Landlords get 40% tax on that £1000 Mr Numpty

[@Metro6am]

@@andrewtaylor6737 what maintenance? lol

[@NoShirtMan]

@@Metro6amyou should factor in 10% for maintenance. Then think about management agency fees (10-20%) and taxes on gains.

[@philiphall8325]

People spend a fortune on housing because its a 1 way bet. If they made council tax proportionate to the property value it might dampen down demand a bit. At the moment a £100m mansion pays about 3.5 times as much as a shitty studio flat

[@Dr.Stacker]

How silly, why on earth you should be taxed on the value on your property is silly, i live in a 4 bed house with my partner and child and pay more council tax than a neighbour down the road in a 3 bed with 6 people, they make use of more council services than i do... doesnt make any sense

[@KelticStingray]

Nope. increase supply and stamp out letting agencies, corporations, absent landlords, foreigners and airbnbs. Council tax increases every year for absent or abandoned units.

[@Dr.Stacker]

@@KelticStingray At least thats a better solution than to blindly tax based on the value of the property. There is just no correlation between the value of house and how much services someone used, It would be much fairer if it was based on household composition as opposed to a number I have no control over, the market will do what it likes, whereas turning a house in a lovely area into a 10 bed studio complex for rent is surely taking more advantage of the services

[@philiphall8325]

People with big houses make the rules so that will never happen!

[@zenastronomy]

is cracks in brick work a structural issue, subsidence or settling? is it something to worry about?

[@Cool76574]

If it's old crack it shouldn't be a problem. Unless it's growing then gets someone to check it

[@zenastronomy]

@@Cool76574 8 year old new build. straight down for metre near windows. estate agent said it was settling cracks. so long as it is something normal i guess it's ok. survey hopefully will tell. didn't realise new houses bricks can crack like that. so wasn't sure if they were lying. as thought it only happens due to subsidence.

[@mickyh93]

When you look at the actual prices of building houses, the actual value isn't really in the house. It's more the land it's on. The cost of building houses has been relatively stable in construction costs thanks to the developments in construction methods and materials. Now however new build houses would likely have super high prices now labour rates and material costs have shot up. Id be surprised in this interest environment if you even got 7% decrease over 5 years.

[@andrewtaylor6737]

It's called losses, the economy is crashing if you haven't noticed already. What good is land value, when an economy / its people are in dire straights!

[@economicshelp]

Good point, inflation really pushed up cost of building

[@mattx4253]

10 million immigrants that’s why. You can’t build enough houses fast enough. That’s why wages suck here too. Because the Uk is a low skill low value economy and immigrants can come here and do those jobs

[@aa6-sf6qd]

I hear people complaining about the low wages they get. Well there are billions of people in developing nations who would gladly work for half what they make. And both the Tories and Labour stand with the immigrants.

[@liammateo287]

This seems like the worst period. Even the market are now very unpredictable. Started investing recently when the market prices were a bit high,today I am more than 60% down!

[@Ashermicheal6341]

Don’t be confuse buying the dip in a bear market, with guaranteed future returns. Just because that company is down 60%+ from ATH does NOT make it a sound long-term investment. Make sure you’re investing in great companies. kudos to kiana rachel

[@Lucas75332]

I agree just reached my goal of $500k monthly trade earnings. Setting realistic goals is an essential part of trading.

[@liammateo287]

How can someone know a professional broker when legit once are hard to find this days

[@Ashermicheal6341]

She's recognized as 'Mrs Kiana rachel . One of the finest portfolio managers in the field. She's widely recognized; you should take a look at her work.

[@philipbenson746]

I agree. Based on personal experience working with an investment advisor, I currently have $1m in a well diversified portfolio, that has experienced exponential growth. It is not about having money to invest in stocks,but also you need to be knowledgeable, persistent, and have strong hands to back it up.

[@JohnHookham-u3e]

Property in London bought in 2017 and now back on the market are at asking prices below the purchase price in 2017, not all but many, so down in nominal terms and a massive fall in real terms.

[@adamkershski]

Where is this happening? 🤔

[@deedee8740]

Is it a flat? Flats have not gone up in London. I am in the same position. However, my house in London has shot up in value. Houses have definitely held their ground.

[@quackcement]

i really hope the house price boom is over, housing should be a right, and not treated as if its a commodity like gold.

[@RoniiNN]

For Uk is will be much much much worse.

[@spokes1018]

Yes but it is, it depends where you are, go and buy a 2 up 2 down in hartlepool for 20k. If prices are high, demand is high, simple as that, invest in yourself and earn more money to buy where you want to be. Its that simple.

[@quackcement]

@@spokes1018 look at the overall figures of average income to average houses prices. average house prices compared to real wages has sky rocketed. Having larger portions of peoples incomes locked into property or rent does not serve our economy well. that money could be used to invest in business or purchase goods or services which will help the UK economy is grow. even if you disagree with what I said what is an acceptable amount for average house prices to get, 12x earning, 18 times earning , or maybe 30x average earnings?

[@andrewtaylor6737]

@@spokes1018 WTAF?

[@spokes1018]

@@andrewtaylor6737 not sure what you mean, socialists don't like facts I guess.

[@MattMarsh2]

Can you please cover reform uk policies?

[@einseitig3391]

Sadly, one has to pay 'nominal house prices' and in the UK with a population that has increased from 58m in 2000 to 68m in 2023, that means there is little to no chance of a major correction. Property represents an investment and people choose to invest for their retirement. All we can hope for is a period of lower price appreciation. However, whilst we want inflation of 2% we are happy to see property appreciate at 20% which leads to a feel good effect and positive growth. With so much in the UK in dire need of fixing, asset mis-allocation ranks as high as any that needs urgent attention.

[@deldia]

Another reason is the expectation that the government will do whatever it takes to avoid a crash.

[@garethwilliams4467]

that's the truth. The government will get involved long before a crash. hence why anyone with property or looking to buy should just carry on as normal

[@prairiehills416]

You can thank the government for this catastrophy. They bailed out Banks in 2008, when the market crash. Wall Street got low, or 0.OO% Interest Rates. They became Corporate Landlords. That has not changed; got worse. Private Equity needs to be regulated in tfe area if Single Family House Rentals. 😭🤑

[@smellypunks]

The trend of inflation beating house prices might well continue and in doing so a stealth house price decline. This would be a good thing as it will give the children of today a chance of buying in the future. Wages beating house price would be even better.

[@sparkymmilarky]

We import 1 million people a year. It is as simple as that.

[@dallysinghson5569]

Wot happened wif Brixit

[@andrewtaylor6737]

@@dallysinghson5569 We had spineless Tories that never delivered a proper Brixit as you so eloquently mentioned! Vote Reform!

[@GeorgeOhYesPlease]

​@@andrewtaylor6737 lol yes get the guy who made false promises over Brexit that got us in this mess back in, fantastic idea 😂

[@andrewtaylor6737]

@@GeorgeOhYesPlease The only mess we're in is due to Tories that their noses in the EU trough, never wanting it to happen. A proper Brexit was never delivered but they're history now, Liebour no doubt will get into power & the coming months will be comedy gold!

[@geoffallibone4026]

@@andrewtaylor6737 Brixit?

[@silvafox7719]

Have house repossessions not slowed due to many paying interest only, so not reducing their mortgage, but treading water on it? How long can that last? I think house prices will stay high, due to the inability to build the amount needed. We don't have the amount of builders necessary, and materials are high in cost.

[@ben00367]

This was incredible. Thank you so much for doing this. Invaulable. I'm an immediate subscriber.

[@stephfoxwell4620]

House prices have doubled six times since 1970. They fell in only eight years out of 54.

[@JackGreen-gh6sw]

And immigraton is bringing millions more ppl to the population every 3 years... nobody wants to accept facts though, as facts hurt their feelings

[@realest-12]

Never seen so many houses for sale and for so long.

[@petearmstrong2778]

Mortgage arrears reaches highest amount for 7 years according to a survey from the BoE (The Times). Plus credir cards missed payments is also on the rise thus masking the problems for the consumer. This could be storing problems but lenders are probably hoping for lower interest rates (doesn't help those on fixed)

[@anthonyduncalf-uk]

High house prices take disposable income away from people then the economy suffers. They should have never been allowed to get to current levels but nobody would stop it as rising prices are a vote winner.

[@andrewbrooks1392]

Personally I would like to see the emergence of a more mature ethos toward the housing market, less focused on capital growth and more on the provision of housing as a 'home'. Less focused on greed. Sure I have made some serious money out of growth of equity in my own home, but I would be happy to see that equity seriously eroded, if it meant that those less fortunate and very often the young could purchase. If only our housing market were akin to that of many of our European neighbours. Take the French for example. One of the reasons they have a much superior standard of living has to be that their disposable income is so much greater since it is not consumed by mortgage/rent payments. Over pricing of housing has indeed distorted the UK's economy to our collective detriment. Heres hoping for a big drop in property prices!

[@garethwilliams4467]

France does not have a superior standard of living

[@ilikelampshades6]

If you're young, due to high costs and high interest rates, you'll still feel poor on £150,000 per annum and still won't be able to have the quality of life your parents' had on £50,000 combined

[@juleswombat5309]

That is because of our low productivity, and GDP/ Capita has plummeted in the last twenty years since Gordon brown. So obviously our living standards will continue to decline. Invest and adopt the use of advanced software tools and technologies, for higher skilled work, and not rely upon cheap imported labour is the only route to halt our decline.

[@ilikelampshades6]

@@juleswombat5309 agree we need to reduce cheap foreign labour, it's ruined nursing and medicine for our own nurses and drs. My service has not decreased in productivity, but my wages have dropped 40% under thr torys

[@hollywoodactress]

Good video. Not sure what I can add to the debate. I would like to see house prices become more realistic, so mortgage repayments are more manageable. What I am seeing down south, the bigger semis coming down in price, but still expensive at 4.5% plus interest rate However I don’t see them crashing. I think the model will be for longer mortgages so 35 to 40 years maybe even 45 years if you’re young enough. Also there is a bigger wealth divide that’s increasing, between those earning a lot and having all good amount of disposable income so they can afford larger mortgage payments vs those that just about get by or struggle to. The middle ground when a good number of people were doing ok, had money to spend and save a bit, has disappeared

[@andrewbrooks1392]

Now that is an absolute terrific Idea.Thank you.

[@l.j.turner185]

Honestly disgusting that housing is treated as an investment to speculate on instead of a basic right and need for survival. Its not a stock price.

[@emberplate]

There's tons of cheap houses in the UK at affordable prices, just not in places people want to live. You'd be hard pressed to say, "affordable housing in trendy places is a basic human right"

[@siskinedge]

Thats a margret thatcher problem, decomodification of the housing market let to the golden age of capitalism in the UK in the 60s within 20 years. we can do it again.

[@machine0182]

@@emberplate It is people trying to live in places near where the jobs are. Most of the time that will be London for the best paying jobs/best for career progression.

[@RoniiNN]

That happens when all the state cheap homes disappears. And slow build rate.

[@emberplate]

@@machine0182 Yep, that's definitely the main reason. I'm just saying it's not a human right to be able to afford to live in the "rich cities", when you could buy a 3 bed in somewhere awful like Hartlepool for next to nothing.

[@RichardEnglander]

Mass immigration has caused wage and productivity stagnation whilst exacerbating the housing EMERGENCY both by driving up demand and therefore costs, as well as all the hidden overcrowding and tiny ever lower quality homes. There isn't enough social housing, Blair and Brown government built even fewer social houses than Thatcher did in a single year... The incumbent Tory government did no better. But we do get the unprecedented population increase due to immigration so the demand keeps increasing. All this when the domestic housing market is open to global investors and corporations. We need to stop the immigration, ban foreign ownership of domestic housing and prioritize British people for social housing, at the moment in London near half the social housing is inhabited by people born abroad. If foreigners can't find a house then they can go home, but this is our home and we have nowhere else to go. Time for a paradigm shift.

[@anthonylulham3473]

Bang on. GDP per person has barely changed in 20 years, but inflation has been significant. £40k in 2004 to £44k in 2024 average GDPpc. but you need 70K to afford the goods and services that you could get in 2004 for 40K. so we are half as wealthy in 20 years. its a disgrace. send them home, ban foreign ownership. foreigners can rent if they want to stay

[@dallysinghson5569]

That's not gonna happen. The anti immigrant folk tend to favour wealthy elites even if they're foreigners because money before everything, even their own citizens.

[@tip00former1]

Although your arguments make sense you can't stop immigration as the workers are needed to fulfill demand. You can maybe be more strict on visa-duration and family-reunification. So this can only be countered if you do away with demand which is very complex and time consuming (training, investment, nursing at home, etc). The UK also used the immigration to prop up growth and taxes. But realizing the UK immigration is like double any other comparable country (and has zero to do with illigal immigration) should make you think about making some changes indeed. So it's not simple, cheap or quick but something has to give regarding immigration. Some major investment is needed. Thank you for the inspiring comment.

[@RichardEnglander]

@@tip00former1 nope We can stop immigration don't be silly. I'm not anti all immigration, being very selective with small numbers is probably a net good. Your views are stuck in the past, in 1990s GSCE level understanding. We are in the 4th Industrial Revolution and the robots are going to take all the low skilled jobs and many others. Population isn't the key to productivity when you have robots. Have another think about it, try thinking for yourself instead of uncritically regurgitating outdated dogma.

[@tip00former1]

@@RichardEnglander lol, disappointing reaction man. Robots are nowhere near replacing anybody in the service sector. That's just an hype. No problem, enjoy the weekend.

[@firmbutton6485]

It’s great to see you appear less anti or pro one party or other. Stay impartial.

[@zfvr]

Nice analysis. I wonder if mortgage stress tests take into account future pay raises. High inflation period has also seen higher than expected pay raises, producing kind of opposite effect of Fisher's debt deflation.

[@imrang6055]

Well, you have to Factor into that or other things into the equation from this point onwards you've got artificial intelligence automation Humanoid Robotics AGI, Job Replacement via these this construct of economics etc will be replaced or changed very quickly to take into account these

[@CaribbeanEmbassyUKTV]

00:30 - What is the historical long term average & where did you get that number from? I calculated 4.7 based on the data sheet provided

[@keelyparker80]

Thanks Mate, the sad truth is that no one has a clue, we all react to what happens as it happens and try to analyse it but can’t predict an iota of what is going to unfold in the markets… content creators are like amplifiers, when times are good they affirm it and try to tell you why it’s good and that it’s looking bullish but then all of a sudden the market turns bearish and everyone affirms it again and try to analyse why… it’s so sad that many are so powerless and it's not about guessing the market's next move; it's about playing it smart and steady during trading...managed to grow a nest egg of around 2.3Bitcoin to a decent 19Bitcoin in the space of a few months... I'm especially grateful to Linda Wilburn, whose deep expertise and traditional trading acumen have been invaluable in this challenging, ever-evolving financial landscape.

[@keelyparker80]

Linda Wilburn program is widely available online..

[@blue_jay31]

Britain still doesn’t have a clue about the scale of the disaster heading its way ! 😢

[@edsirett3860]

Seems like every video about housing, uses the view from the top of Hillfield Park, N10, looking toward the city of London.

[@christieomojo]

I see this stock picture everywhere lol

[@evilzzzability]

You need forced sellers to have a real nominal crash - ie a jump in unemployment, coupled with higher interest rates.

[@Duncan-Bizkitts]

A big problem going forward is the lack of decent wage paying jobs in the UK. While the big corporates are busy virtue signalling at the top of their voices, they’re even busier clandestinely relocating jobs to Poland, Mexico, Ireland …..all over, at lower wages. The effect is doubled by allowing pretty much anyone in the world to come and work here, creating more competition for the beleaguered Brit to gain and maintain a decent standard of living. If any UK government can’t say British jobs for British workers then they’re not worthy of a vote IMHO

[@MrFrobbo]

No mention of Brexit, are you OK?

[@andrewtaylor6737]

lol, well said! I thought if we left the bankrupt club, house prices would crash 30% overnight? Remoaners don't want to hear this, though!

[@viktorianas]

It depends on region, I don't see any overvaluation in South Yorkshire. Also compared to Canada or Australia it's dirt cheap in the UK excluding London.

[@aliasgur3342]

Love the comments, everyone is an expert

[@suryanshkesarwani9688]

I'm firm India and want to come uk for finance manager job but after seeing the the current cenerio in uk I prefer to choose australia or Canada for better stability 😅

[@martinmarjuszycz4133]

Canada is a disaster. Please do your research before coming.

[@ABombs1]

I'd review housing reports from Canada if I were you first lol. Their problems are the UK's on steroids

[@jonnoMoto]

@@ABombs1 same for some areas of Australia w.r.t housing

[@blahbleh5671]

It's the same everywhere in the west for some reason, Canada is far far worse

[@vonder7]

To be honest not sure if not better to stay in India, if you can get a decent job. The quality of life in most English speaking countries is declining. In the uk housing is a big issue, even with a well paid job its difficult to buy a modest property

[@eddieharris6004]

Puzzled........no reference to continued high immigration. 🤔

[@johntheaccountant5594]

The reason the housing market hasn't crashed is nothing is selling and therefore the prices are not falling. There is a demand for housing because of the massive influx of immigrants needing housing.

[@RichardEnglander]

And because population keeps growing, big companies keep buying housing to rent to the government for immigrants

[@dallysinghson5569]

Doubt immigrants are buying them houses. Often these folk are living 5 in a room lol. Gotta keep our landlords happy

[@RichardEnglander]

@@dallysinghson5569 he didn't claim the immigrants were buying the housing, only that they need housing. Nice disingenuous response to point not made

[@andrewtaylor6737]

Don't let the woke lefties hear you speak, such sense!

[@BinanceUSD]

It's a council regulator problem tightening supply

[@AdamReynolds82]

It's certain that this year will bring more challenging challenges. Looking back, I realized that I spent the entire previous year making expensive financial blunders because I was so consumed with worrying about my portfolio. I was forced to decide between raising my investments and purchasing a home. I discovered that the property I had bought needed more work than I had anticipated after deciding to sell my investments. It's becoming more difficult to determine how much longer I can take this.

[@HunterPack2018]

Take things easy, we've all made mistakes

[@mayhemconductor]

Invest in companies that provide current cash flows to diversify your portfolio. I hired a planner at the end of 2022 to enhance my portfolio, and in the last ten months, I've made profits in over fifty thousand different marketplaces. Should 2023 teach us anything, it's that luck doesn't last forever. Even in times of abundance, we should put in more effort to prepare for the worst-case scenario.

[@AdamReynolds82]

Do you mind sharing your financial planner?

[@mayhemconductor]

Leah Foster Alderman

[@mayhemconductor]

You are most likely to find more info when you look her up

[@mmv3481]

In a lot of other countries UK people ie non native people are not allowed to buy property, full stop; only rent. Or they have strict immigration rules like Singapore has a 60% tax at purchase for foreigners and 65% for an entity or trust. This needs to be replicated in the UK

[@andrewtaylor6737]

The pain hasn't even started, the free money is still out there but it's slowly drying up! Let's hope Liebour come to power, that should put the final nail in the coffin to the economy & over inflated house prices!!

[@echoecho5244]

Hands up if you hate the uk homes market.

[@CCP_Operative]

Get Tony Blair in to add another few million to the country. That will elevate prices and lower living standards for us peasants

[@iainawatson]

What are these "annual wage negotiations" that economists keep insisting all workers have? Are they in the room with us right now?

[@gerhard7323]

Can't blame them, but Bank of Mum and Dad are effectively helping to prop up the system of overpriced property by helping their kids borrow more than they otherwise could afford. Ultimately it doesn't help address the overall mismatch between people's earnings generally and what they can afford as all it does is 'artificially' sustain the higher prices.

[@terryj50]

No you will need to put rates to 15% and build 4 million homes a year for prices to fall. Supply and demand in the uk is too much. 1.2 million people coming in a year and only 300k homes built is not enough.

[@brandon_youtube]

A crash will never happen. Lobbying for more home building is the only alternative for UK citizens who want homes or affordable homes.

[@garethwilliams4467]

what good will that do ? ever seen a home built and put on the market at less than it's peers ? we could build miles of them and prices won't drop really.

[@patdbean]

7:16 1.5 million over 5 years? So 300k at year. With net imigration of 700k a year, that is only just enough to keep up with imigration, assuming 2.x people per household.

[@SteveAvidius]

Interest rates are not coming down without entering a full recession first. Once people realise that, then markets can mean revert.

[@borisj]

Friends of mine paid £350k for a 1-bedder in North London 7 years ago. They paid their mortgage for 7 years, including a whole lot of interest, of course. Now their flat is on the market and the best offer they got is £320k. Real Estate never a bad bet, huh? Renting for them wouldn't have been dead money if they had invested the difference between theoretical mortgage cost and rent. The Nasdaq rose 94% in these 7 years.

[@RichardEnglander]

What location? It must be one of the very enriched/diverse/edgy ones, won't be anywhere nice.

[@gasface7275]

don’t forget to factor in rent increases

[@Jonnyicey]

They must have paid way over the odds to start with?

[@AM_o2000]

Don't forget your analysis is in nominal terms. Consider their loss in real terms. Much heftier.

[@HJM49125]

Service charges probably went sky high...or cladding issues.

[@thorstenroberts4726]

So is your argument that the current housing situation is sustainable? If the answer is "no", then house prices will drop, regardless of how much can -kicking the government and industry does.

[@damiandamianov5821]

Great resource ! Thank you.

[@hungo7720]

Soaring housing prices have worsened the economic woes with which the UK is currently grappling. Overregulation and high interest rates have undermined youngsters' efforts to have a roof over their head.

[@wizzyno1566]

Immigration? People have to live somewhere...

[@anthonylulham3473]

@@wizzyno1566 yeah 8 million people arriving in 20 years wouldn't put pressure on the market. Also the same period the GDP per capita has basically not moved, while inflation has done a number. GDP pc in 2004 was £40K and in 2024 its £44k, but youd need 70k to afford the goods and services that £40K in 2004 got you. so we are nearly half as wealthy as in 2004.

[@andrewtaylor6737]

High interest rates! Lol!! For those who've had a mortgage for for over 15 years, they should have a very healthy stash of cash put to one side from all the years of low interest rates. Youngsters yes, they've only experienced low interest rates & plenty of free money! Those days are over!!

[@kevinsyd2012]

My neighbour's 28 year old son (+ girlfriend) have moved back to his parents home "to save for a deposit". The lad is adamant that they want a 3-bed semi with garden and garage and will consider nothing less. That's around £400k here (Berkshire). Meanwhile, they drive two cars, holiday twice a year, the girlfriend works part-time and shops for clothes when she is not working, and party every weekend. One year later they have £2,000 saved between then a set of very unhappy parents.

[@auldfouter8661]

At 9.34 surely the graphs are wrongly labelled ? Inflation is currently below wage growth rates.

[@mrmeldrew693]

700,000+ extra people in a year VS how many new houses? Something happened in the 90s.

[@terryj50]

Labour and people want another Labour gov.

[@tj9382]

House prices will not fall because certain powerful people don’t want them to. I’ll be very surprised if Labour doesn’t renege on its pledges.

[@101lakeside4]

There are areas where house prices have fallen significantly, to say they are not is naive. In these areas people are getting wiped out. Again, some people HAVE been forced to sell. I see lots of praise for your channel below, but I’m sorry, I am a realist. I know what I have seen with my own eyes. Either your data is wrong or it is being manipulated. I feel very sorry for the people losing their homes, it is devastating.

[@garethwilliams4467]

but if it's reposessed it goes to someone who can actually afford it. so what's the problem

[@T2K22]

Always clear and concise videos. Appreciated.

[@Nicho2020]

Your inflation figure reflects price inflation, not wage inflation, and the 15% drop is not in any way comforting or meaningful to buyers.

[@bluegoose7832]

I genuinely believe the only way for me to even get on the housing ladder now is by buying my grandmothers house off her and move in either when she moves into a bungalow, or god forbid if she passes before that... And I dont want to do that, really. The area isn't great for starters, but I mainly just don't feel comfortable taking advantage like that. She's offered it for a decent price, but she could easily get another £70k for it, and she doesn't have a private pension so she does need as much as she can get for it, really. Thing is, I cant afford anything more than £100k to £120k at my age (25, full time worker, on £26k per year), the bank has detirmined I am allowed to borrow £86k, and my alternative option is privately renting and giving up 60% of my wage.... so I either fall into the renting trap, or I rip off my f*ckin grandma.... That's what this country has become. I'm forced to choose poverty via private renting or take advantage of family

[@anthonylulham3473]

Buying a house alone has basically never been achievable in british history except post war boom, could you find a wife? a dowery? perhaps she would have a saving pool of her own and would earn some money to help with the bills?

[@sanjayfurtado3993]

Move in with your Grandma and save on rent. Help your Grandma by being with her.

[@Jay-xr3sb]

you're at the start of your career, plenty of time to up your earnings. Get into a trade like plumbing or electrician is you're at a dead-end. 26k isn't going to cut it long term and a house isn't supposed yo land in your lap at 25. Also, buy joint with a partner/wife or double up with a friend instead of renting if you can. In the meantime live with your grandmother while you progress the above, but youll have stop feeling sorry for yourself first, or you'll get trapped in a cycle of negative self defeating noise.

[@spankeyfish]

My plan is just to continue living with my remaining parent as her inept live in carer and inherit the house we're in.

[@garethwilliams4467]

try and be less dramatic! there's a good girl

[@peterscott6818]

Gary Stevenson says that house prices stay high because of growing inequality. The very rich have seen their wealth grow through the rising value of their assets. They invest that wealth in buying more assets, property being the chief of those assets. Ordinary people see wage levels still below 2008 levels and cannot afford to buy even one house. The property owning middle class is disappearing fast. As long as the rich get richer and keep investing in property in large numbers then prices will stay high. Is Gary correct? For me it’s a fairly obvious yes. Anyone else?

[@andrewtaylor6737]

Agree to a point with Gary's economics, but will the rich really want to invest in some crappy property in the back streets of the midlands / the north? Maybe they will, but personally I can't see it. Personally I wouldn't buy another over inflated house again, with the cost of utilities / maintainence etc etc!

[@hollywoodactress]

@@andrewtaylor6737maybe all depends on the type of housing stock in the area Where I am, the run down big semis are being bought then chopped up into HMOs or the posh term I hear is “service accommodation”. Those developers say they get better yield, so that’s what they are doing

[@garethwilliams4467]

No .. I thinkhe is wrong to a point. He is correct that QE - which wasn't the same money creation as covid, which when given to banks/bankers had to be invested and that was houses, fine wines, art, gold etc ??? But that doesn't describe what we are seeing now - and in the places we are seeing. Not many city traders buying in Hartlepool etc.

[@jamessmith1652]

The only way to build wealth is to increase your assets and for most people this is getting on the housing ladder (because you can live in your asset and it gives you discipline to save). Most people under 40 are priced out and cannot build wealth. This is a disaster.

[@fiddley]

Economics: The art of explaining why the predictions didn't come true :)

[@hTyKn1]

So let's think about that... GDP per capita is lower now than it was 5 years ago despite net immigration. So we have more people (who are competing for houses) and we're now poorer than we were.

[@goncalosousa3192]

Only if offer is way Lower Than offer

[@jim-es8qk]

Our wonderful government keeps finding evermore elaborate ways to keep them propped up.

[@andrewtaylor6737]

Let's hope Liebour get in, that should crash the housing market quite nicely!

[@cthymnn2010]

It should not be so much that housing prices should fall but that the ridiculous skyrocketing disparity between rich and poor should eliminated. The bottom 99% should have a much greater income increase. The top 1% MUST stop hogging the wealth.

[@jons9721]

The entire economy (and employment) is closely linked to house prices. If house prices go down then (the majority) who own property stop spending money and the economy crashes and even through the houses will be 'cheaper' no one will have a job to be able to afford one

[@CCP_Operative]

Sounds like A-level economics nonsense to me. Reverse causality

[@jons9721]

@@CCP_Operative No the reason consumers spend money is they know they have capital even through they don't have cash. Show me a point in modern history where house prices have gone down without the economy following. It's not a good thing but the reality is for a majority of people in the UK the housing 'crisis' is there retirement plan. Until those without a house outnumber those with nothing is going to change

[@CCP_Operative]

@@jons9721 Regarding your last sentence in 1st paragraph. Could be reverse causality Regarding second paragraph. I agree but only way to access gains is by downsizing or selling and never buying a home again.

[@jons9721]

@@CCP_Operative Or borrowing against the property either directly or indirectly (max out Credit card because you live in a 500k house). A large part of this is psychological but a large part of economics is. The problem we have is democracy itself, its literally produced a society where for 55% of the population to win the other 45% have to really suffer

[@anthonyduncalf-uk]

True but this is the reason they have been allowed to get so high as it creates a feel good factor. The problem is this way of thinking eventually fails when they become out of reach for people . This is where we are at now.

[@paulmessenger9836]

People need to realise the value of the pound is worth less than five years ago

[@lewisjackson2185]

Is it just me or does the argument of improving housing supply having minimal affect on demand stink to anyone here? I doubt you'd have such massive levels of speculation and urgency to massively over leverage yourself if there wasn't sluggish supply growth. For anyone reading surely if you knew house building was keeping up with population growth or even surpassing lets say you would be more hesitant about how much you're willing to pay?

[@harry130747]

The population in the UK is rising only due to inward migration. These people don;t have any money. Who's going to pay for all these proposed new houses?

[@garethwilliams4467]

Angela Rayner already said the tax payer will. There will be tax rises somewhere/somehow guaranteed.

[@mohammadcheema7375]

This is a good video but I feel it misses points specific to the housing market. As has been pointed out already in the comments - building costs have gone through the roof (no pun intended). In addition, a lot of people are using housing as an inflation hedge including the super rich. This is also keeping a floor under the housing market. So my guess is that house prices are actually like the early 1970s right now. Most likely we’ll finish this decade with the average house price well above £400k.

[@andrewtaylor6737]

Delusional! Someone else who follows the sheep & thinks house prices will always rise, or maybe afraid your house price is already tanking!

[@mohammadcheema7375]

I used to have the same view. The key thing that changed my mind was looking around me. Wages are falling or stagnant and wealth inequality is rising massively. And I’ve concluded that, sadly, this increase in house prices is actually a sign of our economic decline. Eventually we’ll end up similar to India or Brazil where house prices are completely unaffordable to all but the top 10%. This is the hidden reason why Lloyds bank and others have openly stated they want to be the nations’ largest landlords. How could they say that if there was still lots of scope for people to buy their own homes? I’m not revelling in this and I’m not worried about my own house as I don’t have a mortgage anymore. We should all be worried for our children and young people’s ability to get on the housing ladder.

[@mark4lev]

The political class all have property portfolios. Look at what they do not what they say

[@bhatra10]

Angela Rayner has already cashed in

[@marioskoutras6583]

"Prices are high because of house shortage". I don't know about UK but here in Greece this theory is pure nonsense. Prices went up in 2018 when Chinese and Russian people started buying apartments to transform them into airbnb. Now, the number of available apartments is way bigger than before. Like 5 times bigger! But the prices are a total joke, most people choose to live with their parents. In other words, the whole thing has a much simpler explanation. Greed.

[@Fishstickification]

Say it with me ‘Rent is theft’

[@garethwilliams4467]

so lets give everyone free/subsidised housing .. do you think taxes are theft from the rich ?

[@goncalosousa3192]

In this country I can’t understand it but I guess not!

[@MonkDave666]

Honest Money channel still sitting around waiting for the MASSIVE CRASH! after completely reking his family lol.

[@imyourhuckleberry8009]

As soon as he said inflation has fallen quite sharply I had to tune out. If you have 100 people and 1 is a billionaire and you take an average for wages across this lot, it will look like everyone is doing swimmingly and inflation is not an issue. So Gov figures that average in this way are uselessly misleading and so you get such in inane comment from an "expert".

[@CarlJones14]

We've had real inflation between 8% and 20/25% since 2008, and the pound in real terms, has collapsed. The notional property values are a joke, and taken in the wider context, house prices are collapsing. Two things keep notional prices looking reasonable. Banks are lending, and some blocks of workers are getting one third pay rises, in comparison to house prices. The Nazi regime is throwing the economy and the pound under the bus, just to keep the sinking ship afloat. Wait, Poland will some overtake the UK by GDP, and bankrupt Britain is now around 8th or 9th place, and soon to fall to 15th. Even Russia is ranked in 4th place, and that's based on corrupt official data, so Ruusia is probably closer to 3rd spot, and China is way ahead of the US.