Why the pollsters didn't predict a Trump landslide

“It’s particularly tricky in the US because you’ve got the popular vote and you’ve got the electoral college, which is very very hard to predict.”
The pollsters miscalculated how close the US election would be, in particular miscalculating Kamala Harris’s support among women, says Tom Calver data editor, at The Times and The Sunday Times.
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[@atouchofgreatness]

Here’s a better question. Why did Times Radio predict a Harris landslide?

[@Paul83614]

Absolutely!

[@thegreatujo]

...because of the polls ?

[@JosephStealin]

Because they are establishment creatures

[@po-cf1ut]

particularly when they are owned by same Murdoch's of FOX.

[@CMDR_Hal_Melamby]

@@JosephStealin projection projection progection

[@infiniteloopcounter9444]

Lol, the irony of these guys talking about polls misleading people when that's what these guys do on a daily basis.

[@Walt1972]

It was definitely biased coverage. You only had to go online to realise that across the board Trump had huge support. The Times do not think to speak to ordinary people.

[@JoshuaMolotov]

Precisely. Shameless misleading through clickbait and discourse bending and pseudo data. After all Times Radio wants views to make more money. No one ever said they have a professional truth oriented ethic

[@Cara-JeanLopez]

SO TRUE

[@jenkinsljenkinssquire9137]

I haven't seen a man beat a woman this badly since the Olympics

[@malekkushimuzik3580]

😂😂😂

[@ygmistique8155]

😂😂😂

[@MrPoiuytre91]

Times Radio are USELESS. Video after video of telling us that Trump was going to lose.

[@mr.mayhem7402]

That's the problem with propaganda. Once it's blown, then no one believes the source on anything, ever again.

[@tommymorrison6478]

But that's simply untrue. It's just a lie. Some interviewees reckoned Trump would lose, others that he would win. Are you deliberately lying or do you struggle with reality?

[@stuartcarter7053]

Don't forget about the videos telling us how evil Trump was.

[@tommymorrison6478]

@@stuartcarter7053 I don't recall Times Radio saying that, though some of their guests might have, but in any case it's a correct assessment of the man. Trump is, to all intents and purposes, evil. You don't understand this but enlightenment will come, and when it does you'll go straight into denial.

[@j.heilig7239]

Every single media outlet is useless.

[@jaisriram295]

Bring back that guy who never gets elections wrong 😂😂😂

[@timothykatende8484]

Ooh yes let them bring him back.I hear since 1980 he never gets predictions wrong . They did everything to convince us how Harris would win...bring him back.

[@eccehomer8182]

I heard Lichtman rage quit his broadcast. Whamp, whamp! 😂

[@Wppsamsung2024]

@@jaisriram295 13 kEyYss

[@KevinSmith-gu7fb]

@@Wppsamsung2024 Yeah, I've known for months or at least weeks that even by his own standards he would be wrong, because he was so obviously assessing his keys incorrectly. The economy is good? DT is not charismatic? JB and KH's administration is free of scandal? Get real, Alan Lichtman! I knew he was wrong on these things, just like anyone who was honest did.

[@jajaja7]

Of course that is not true.

[@blessingz]

What a change of tone in 48 hrs times.

[@Simon-zb6fp]

You got the popular vote wrong too. Why don't you apologise to all of us on behalf of Times Radio?

[@FERKILL377]

Not all votes have been counted yet though? Popular vote is not final

[@jessicaslave5940]

Trump won by 4.75 million votes

[@melodyseverything6999]

@@FERKILL377 -- Counting has been completed. Trump won the popular vote as well.

[@animula6908]

They don’t owe us an apology for being as dumb as God made them. They’re not sorry and we are not sorry. We owe them a thanks for creating humor by being wrong.

[@jaisriram295]

Keep crying Times after spending the last few months pumping out BS propaganda 😂😂😂

[@hkuiper100]

Haven’t they ever. Completely lost all credibility. Trouble is that it keeps coming up in my feed.

[@eccehomer8182]

@@hkuiper100 That's Google for ya.

[@jeffmurray6219]

It’s been non stop nonsense.

[@DavidGitongawriter]

Another propaganda that will be proven wrong - Ukraine is winning.

[@thomasrobinson182]

The pollsters didn't take into account how many voters didn't like Kamala Harris or her supposed agenda.

[@benjaminunruh7970]

Idk if kamala ever had a stated agenda lol...

[@donaldmackerer9032]

I agree. She was way too woke, p.c., and liberal for so many people. She practically ignored the issue of illegal immigration which was the biggest concern along with the economy. I'm in a county in Georgia which is on the edge of the suburbs of Atlanta and it's overwhelmingly pro Trump. Kamala ran a terrible campaign. Obviously out of touch with the American public.

[@tonabnehmer9407]

All serious pollsters had the popular vote a tie with +-3% margin of error... Trump will win by about 1.7% so where were the polls wrong?

[@NeilGlass-h8q]

Hopefully Times Radio will choke on humble pie having posted all their videos predicting a Harris victory and panic in the Trump camp

[@jeffmurray6219]

So funny. They have no idea.

[@schoolofgrowthhacking]

They won't. They're establishment creatures

[@johnmuzic3475]

How can the polling industry be so wrong so many times, time and time again, and why do people still take them seriously at all?

[@nosuchthing8]

Its bizarre

[@jupiler02]

@@nosuchthing8 Meanwhile...in the real world... ;-)

[@robbiekop7]

Maybe when asking people in the street the average person doesn't have want to reveal his/her true intentions. People don't want to be judged & manipulated...Who knew 😳

[@peterrauth118]

I think people just like spoofing the pollsters - for a laugh

[@fainitesbarley2245]

Pollsters used to pride themselves on getting it at least close . Now they don’t seem to care.

[@ahamed4152]

lol love when non Americans chip into US politics and are shocked they are wrong.

[@mrjerzheel]

The Iowa poll was garbage, and so were the others saying its a tight race.

[@test-bu8sw]

Its really not hard to understand, when you shame people for voting for a candidate, they wont chage their vote, bt they wont reveal it either. If people were at risk of losing friends, jobs etc for their voting choice, you cant blame them.

[@megaloschemos9113]

Exactly. People will keep quiet about supporting Trump, but once in the voting booth, they are free to vote for him

[@paulgee8253]

Pompous Times Radio way way wrong. Kind of makes you wonder about Times’ take on other things.

[@mr.mayhem7402]

Look at all their recent videos: everyone has had enough of Trump, Republicans are switching away from Trump, etc. They really are in a smug, self-satisfied bubble where only they and the Left actually believe their own propaganda.

[@HenryHobson-uc2bk]

they had zeniskilelly winning the ukrain proxy war 18 months ago, 21st century version of lord haw haw

[@CountDuckEgg]

Ukraine. They keep telling us Ukraine is winning. It isn't.

[@mr.mayhem7402]

@CountDuckEgg It can't win a war of attrition with Russia and never could. This will be the Don's first big test- if he can persuade Putin to withdraw troops from Ukraine in exchange for vetoing Ukraine's entry into Nato, maybe thermonuclear war can be avoided.

[@JoshuaMolotov]

- Putin is running out of road as his army lies in ruins - Xi plots to betray Putin in Russia land grab - Military analyst's disbelief at ancient weapons used in Russian drills - South Korea and US to eliminate North Korean troops with advanced weaponry - Putin deploying North Korean troops proves Ukraine invasion is failing - Putin's plan to save economy flops at BRICS summit ...

[@andrewmorrison1557]

Embarrassing for Times Radio as they bought into the Harris narrative, apology maybe?! 😂

[@ronclark9724]

I won't be holding my breath waiting for an apology from the BIASED lame stream news media....

[@RobertLund-d7d]

Did I miss the apology for all the mis-information peddled by Times Radio ?

[@daviddorward7684]

Really sick of Times Radio who has NO credibility at all left. Your left wing bias has been completely exposed and this pathetic broadcast is all about covering your exposed behinds!

[@animalian01]

Times Radio must be in mourning even last night they were pridicting a Harris win.

[@frankr2513]

The US is a republic, in that it js a federation of 50 mini nations (called states) if you will. Thus its really like 50 elections taking place within an overall single election

[@HowlingWo1f]

We all knew Trump was gonna win and we told you all along, but you allowed your biases to affect your common sense. Trump 🇺🇸🇺🇸💪

[@bauer9101]

4 years of stating Trump supporters are fools. Many will of course keep quiet, cast their vote and then heave a sigh of relief on results day.

[@copaloadofthis]

Trump supporters ARE fools… just more of them than predicted….

[@Erime]

Money talks. The betting shops were pretty much spot-on. They're not interested in spin - there are direct profits to be made.

[@dmf37207]

How could Times Radio be so wrong? Your credibility has taken a huge hit.

[@robertjenkins9900]

When you only listen to what you want to hear, this is what happens

[@casperdog777]

''Times Radio'' was trumpeting a Harris victory and happily predicting a Trump defeat. Why so partial and biased ?

[@Mpxyzm2by]

That one guy looks so upset 😂😂😅😅

[@aidanm5578]

Because of wishful thinking.

[@michaeld.1128]

This is clap back from all the social justice causes. People didn't brag about their choice prior to the election.

[@TrevyBabe]

Times Radio's credibility, apart from Andrew Neil's, has taken a massive hit, along with much of the mainstream media, especially on TV. I've had to start watching Fox News!

[@marthavillegas3662]

People lie

[@GregMoylan-pn6sr]

The world owes US voters a big THANK YOU.

[@Kratatch]

Dont worry, n. Korea, China and Russia will send their thanks.

[@kmg474]

​@@KratatchAnd their tanks.

[@janetblanc7658]

The US has now allied itself with Russia, North Korea, Iran, and maybe China. It will.no.longer consider itself allied to Australia, Canada, Europe and countries in Asia. A new world order or disorder.

[@nicholascazmay2126]

lol, I hope you’re ready for the consequences.

[@Chetifs1095]

@@kmg474 Only if it serves as a trigger for European military and economic revival. The west (western commentators) has assumed that the average American is a reasonable, sane person; they're not...alas, education, apart from for the elite, in the US has declined for years, and the 'red' middle America on the map is filled largely with the ignorant and undesercning, who prefer a Godlike figure! even if he is an evil God.

[@zakariyeyahye5566]

“A victory over Zionism is a victory for humanity?.” - George Galloway

[@a.u.b1]

Times Radio and its favorite warmonger John Bolton have been defeated😂😂😂

[@walterrwrush]

He is the world's most successful conman .

[@PeIeus]

Cope

[@michaellim8601]

You fools were wrong 😂🤣😅

[@georgethompson453]

The Democrats have just spent an absolute fortune on this, especially since Harris became the candidate. 🤔

[@badillorivera4355]

I’ve been watching a KZbin channel that has been providing averages of all the polls for each state. Those averages have been predicting a huge win for a long time. The uk press has seemingly only reported what aligned with their wishes.

[@nosuchthing8]

Good lord, how could so many people be SO wrong? It was a complete waste of time for Harris.

[@zakariyeyahye5566]

“We know too well that our freedom is incomplete without the freedom of the Palestinians.” - Nelson Mandela

[@michellemirembe6057]

❤

[@Cosmoscosmos1]

Nothing went wrong,it went right!

[@zakariyeyahye5566]

“Today, everything is Made in China. Except courage, courage is made in Palestine.” - Anthony Bourdain

[@HornetVF103]

Atlas Intel and Rasmussen got it right! It is who you follow.

[@zakariyeyahye5566]

“God Sees the Truth, but Waits.” - Leo Tolstoy

[@sangmoon2464]

Pollsters, except a few like Rasmussen, don't take the effort to get a representative sample. Most pollsters are like a shady insurance company where they take your money but have no intention of providing the service purchased.

[@created1991]

Kamala is now neither black nor indian 😂😂😂

[@Mpxyzm2by]

He didn’t even say the thing about Puerto Rico lol an ignorant comedian did. God

[@JoshuaMolotov]

Here is a handful of recent Times Radio video titles concerning the war in Ukraine: - Putin is running out of road as his army lies in ruins - Xi plots to betray Putin in Russia land grab - Military analyst's disbelief at ancient weapons used in Russian drills - South Korea and US to eliminate North Korean troops with advanced weaponry - Putin deploying North Korean troops proves Ukraine invasion is failing - Putin's plan to save economy flops at BRICS summit ... rings awfully hollow doesn't it You should all be ashamed, Times Radio. This is Russia level of propaganda that doesn't reflect reality. This is Kremlin levels of indoctrination. Please take a breath and have a long deep think about what you are causing

[@PawelLeszczynskipav]

That choice will backfire on Americans. Their allies will feel it first though.

[@garrettchristopher3462]

As an American you're so right

[@nosuchthing8]

As an American that voted for Harris I concur. I hope Trump has some wisdom with that power

[@patrickbateman7122]

cry more!!!! hahah the copium!!!

[@HowlingWo1f]

Don’t be so disappointed that Americans will finally get to have our tax dollars spent on Americans, it’s our money & our right 🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸💪

[@humanonearth1]

@@HowlingWo1f Ya like the trillion dollar tax break he gave to his rich friends when he already had 4 years? And all the infrastructure spending that poured into your state under trump? yaaaaa......

[@jeffmurray6219]

Times radio have been a source of great hilarity for months now. Your experts and pundits are all left wing bar a small number and are left wing activists not journalists. Will keep watching because it’s comedy gold bar a few where you offer some nuance and balance.

[@player9117]

You all told us that a Trump victory is the end of everything........are you prepared for it??

[@raubism]

Im sorry europe has forgot what freedom is. Small govt and low tax is good for everyone.

[@craig7083]

I was so confused by all the political yard signs, I think I voted for a realtor!

[@chickenLegs2.0]

Get the title right!! Times gets it wrong again!!!!! Hahaha 🎉😂🎉😂🎉😂🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿

[@FASTCAPITAL-x5w]

I tried to warn you but you all were blinded by hatred towards trump forgetting hardship unit even the best enemies

[@raymondpaul6233]

There is a saying - "People get the politicians they deserve " RIP America !!

[@koiguidenishikigoi4972]

What's your view on UK though 🤣🤣

[@gamemonzster]

@@koiguidenishikigoi4972 you know someone has a lot of intelligence when they use laughing emojis

[@ricardosmythe2548]

​@@gamemonzsterthere just a reflection of our smugness 😂

[@eccehomer8182]

@@gamemonzster 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

[@gamemonzster]

@@ricardosmythe2548 I can see by the sheer number of comments you leave on youtube that you have no life whatsoever

[@deniscunningham3059]

I'm not surprised Trump's at 312 in the Electoral College. You're giving credence to the wrong polls, gentlemen.

[@johnecoapollo7]

The pollsters ask all the wrong questions. The only reliable measure of victory or defeat in politics in my humble opinion are polls that people what issue do they consider the most important. Whichever candidate can better articulate and more widely articulate a solution to those issues or if they are seeking reelection, has delivered on those issues in the past, they will be reelected. 9/10 the most prevalent issues in those polls are i)the economy, ii)immigration, iii)distant third, foreign policy.

[@cvbposhd2789]

Because you guys are just jealous 😂

[@la7dfa]

RuZZian facism in the West? No thanks. Democracy have to fix this in 2028 years,

[@hifijohn]

It's called echo chamber living. I'm not a dem or rep, and I had no problem predicting Trump winning.

[@richardgadsby6642]

I'm a centrist and can see both side of the arguments but what is disturbing is how many people are getting off on the perceived misery of over 65m people who are deemed to voted the 'wrong' way. It gets worse each election.

[@9psi]

Need to get out of the bubble

[@olowoaye]

Did Trump define her as left wing? She did that herself four years ago and then try and evolved to a moderate in this election

[@GairikGhosh]

1. Because there is no accountability in certain jobs like pollsters, economists, historians etc. 2. There is money to make in running interference in favour of your paymasters.

[@aguy6641]

If you don't respect pollsters you'll tell them whatever.

[@Infopirates]

😂😂😂😂😂 Times Radio's crying😅 Priceless 😁😁😁

[@livingtribunal4110]

Everybody better buckle-up: *The Trumpinator* is fckin BACK.

[@genwcd91]

Let's face it, Times Radio doesn't represent the average working class person, I listen to it, often enjoy it but do wonder what world they are living in, and the US election is a classic example?

[@infostudy101]

Polls were actually fairly accurate. 538 had Trump ahead in 4 of 7 swing states. 1 tied and 2 to Harris. When you look at the percentages, Trump only won by 1.4% in Michigan, 2.1% in Pennsylvania and 2.2% in Georgia. The popular vote was projected to be tied or with Harris in a very small lead.

[@1951tortola]

Times Radio apparently didn’t listen to the expert pollsters out there, the best of whom was actually on KZbin, who were consistent in predicting a Trump win. Reflects poorly on TR who seemed more intent on flogging a position.

[@alexchr380]

"We were not wrong, the polls were wrong"

[@a5cent]

The obvious answer: Because it wasn't a landslide! *facepalm*

[@hugogomes1077]

He polls were wrong 😂 you mean you were wrong and probably knowingly.

[@Marty3317]

The polls have not been wrong they have just been manipulated. I’ve watched pollsters on KZbin such as gold crown and they have called exactly what was going to happen!! Gold crown politics….. 312/226 that’s just one a dozen that were spot on!!

[@DavidKane-z5g]

Polls...utter...garbage....again...😂😂.....sack the pollsters...leave it to the people..to decide

[@sebastianfinocchiaro870]

Pollsters make up their own figures, according to what side of politics they favour.

[@eq1373]

Copium?

[@bobmcdonnell4371]

BUT HOW MUCH DID HE PAY ELECTION OFFICIALS TO GET HIS NUMBERS UP?

[@primozmokorel3589]

You just can't stop with identity politics...why would someone vote just on gender or race basis...some do, but most poeple just want to live in peace.

[@bob___]

The result was within the range of poll results over the last two weeks or so, but we shouldn't disregard the fact that the inaccuracy of public political polls may be a feature rather than a bug. The sample sizes are too small (typically in the hundreds of samples per state) to be broadly accurate, yet they produce results that are consistent over time and among pollsters.

[@BrianWillcox-qp2hr]

Zelensky's given birth to a litter of kittens this morning. 😅

[@thomfiel]

Biden, upon taking office, should have announced that he'd serve only ONE term. Then, the Democrats would have had time to prepare for this campaign, instead of changing horses in the middle of a stream. Also, Harris should have been more critical of the Biden administration.

[@mjmej4734]

Polling industry should start using tea leaves

[@nicholascazmay2126]

I hope everyone is ready for four years of Stockholm syndrome.

[@MichaelScheerer-jh4ti]

After having watched and listened to Times Radio pollsters for months on how the outcome of the US election would look like, I am really surprised about the final result. Seems that voters just didn‘t understand the message.

[@NoahSpurrier]

So a completely useless industry.

[@militaryandemergencyservic3286]

1:55 'THEY MIGHT LIE TO POLLSTERS'. Good old Times Radio. Enjoy the next 4 years.

[@jamesberonja1539]

Polls were garbage this year.

[@theloniousm4337]

Look at the female presenters eyes....everyday is Halloween.

[@artic_dh]

Because they do a bad job at polling

[@ikechukwunwaeze2205]

You 'thought' what...?? Hack job gone wrong...!!😅

[@Carol.Allison]

Totally agree with you, something very fishy going on

[@snaggy13]

Keep in mind many of the swing states were still within margin of error. Too much certainty placed in arithmetic mean, without looking at confidence interval. Yes, the trend of underestimated Trump support s there as well. We need more nuance and less hype in media.

[@johncarter1150]

The up-evil continues, another political movement that doesn't deny reality must emerge for the long term survival of life!

[@Alan-lv9rw]

Why did this website predict Harris winning every day since July?

[@zakariyeyahye5566]

“Every time he [Zelensky] comes in [the United States], we give him 100 billion dollars. Who else got that kind of money in history?.” - Donald J. Trump

[@tommymorrison6478]

I always knew some people were utter fools, but I never understood the sheer numbers of them until Trump came along and they all voted for him.

[@zakariyeyahye5566]

“I want to get prosthetic arms and play soccer again.” - Mahmoud, a child (8 years old), who lost both of his right and left arms due to an immoral, unethical, and illegal Israeli airstrike on his family home. He dreams of traveling to get prosthetic limbs.” - Hani Abu Rezeq, a Palestinian journalist from Gaza

[@roberw1912]

the signs were there, you ignored them and went with views you liked

[@eltonmuchemwa2276]

They are simply corrupt

[@ebadd3468]

Who won the genZ and male vote? Thats all you need to know.