Your Questions on Open Conventions, a Gaza Schism and Biden’s Chances

We received thousands of questions in response to last week’s audio essay arguing that Democrats should consider choosing a candidate at August’s D.N.C. convention. Among them: Is there any chance Joe Biden would actually step down? Would an open convention be undemocratic? Is there another candidate who can bridge the progressive and moderate divide in the party? Doesn’t polling show other candidates losing to Donald Trump by even larger margins? Would a convention process leave Democrats enough time to mount a real general election campaign?
In this conversation, I’m joined by our senior editor Claire Gordon to answer these questions and many more.
Mentioned:
“Democrats Have a Better Option Than Biden (www.nytimes.co...) ” by Ezra Klein
“Here’s How an Open Democratic Convention Would Work (www.nytimes.co...) ” with Elaine Kamarck on The Ezra Klein Show
Thoughts? Guest suggestions? Email us at [e-mail].
You can find transcripts (posted midday) and more episodes of “The Ezra Klein Show” at nytimes.com/ezra-klein-podcast (www.nytimes.co...) . Book recommendations from all our guests are listed at www.nytimes.co... (www.nytimes.co...) .
This episode of “The Ezra Klein Show” was produced by Annie Galvin. Fact-checking by Michelle Harris, with Mary Marge Locker. Our senior engineer is Jeff Geld, with additional mixing from Efim Shapiro. Our senior editor is Claire Gordon. The show’s production team also includes Rollin Hu and Kristin Lin. Original music by Isaac Jones. Audience strategy by Kristina Samulewski and Shannon Busta. The executive producer of New York Times Opinion Audio is Annie-Rose Strasser. And special thanks to Sonia Herrero.

[@celestialtreetarot4260]

Thank you for this helpful podcast and for asking the Democrats to take Trump as seriously as we voters should. If Biden is going to lose, they need to act

[@jybrokenhearted]

Does that mean more democrats rioting in the streets again???

[@simonalexanderwood]

We are all weird political junkies 😅 this show does deserve a much larger audience. It is very high quality.

[@paulheydarian1281]

Nah, not really. Hard Pass! 😮

[@cbl1984]

Actual election in November...uhm, NO! Early voting starts in mid October!

[@searose6192]

9:16 What!? The voters have no say! Only the party insiders who were gifted the boon of being delegates.

[@theparadoxicaltouristtrave9320]

And the same type of people who picked loser candidates in election after election.

[@robertadaversa2503]

David Feldman believes that, other than Harris, there can be no alternatives to a Biden candidacy simply because it’s too late to raise the necessary money for a general campaign. Seems like a fair idea.

[@erinm9445]

What? Of course there's money for a general campaign. It's for Biden. Would be transferred if there were a different candidate.

[@Avengerie]

lt is surreal hearing Ezra talk about Biden’s achievements when he doesn’t know where he is half of the time. Talking about whether he can pull it off when he’s clearly not up for the job (regardless if people vote for him or not).

[@juliamathews956]

How important is it to you that you totally ignore the arms to Israel as a reason for abandoning Biden?

[@molybdaenmornell123hopp5]

Who are you asking? Ezra doesn't ignore this.

[@lomotil3370]

🎯 Key Takeaways for quick navigation: 00:03 *🎙️ Ezra questions Biden's campaign ability, suggesting he might not be up for the race based on polls, press conferences, and interviews.* 01:28 *🤔 Chris Hayes raises the question of who decides if Biden runs, expressing doubt that anyone other than Biden himself can make that decision.* 02:39 *📉 Ezra predicts potential scenarios where Biden's campaign could worsen over the next few months, leading to increased pressure for him not to run.* 04:02 *🤷 Ezra emphasizes his respect for Biden but stresses the importance for Democrats to consider alternatives if Biden's campaign deteriorates further.* 05:51 *⚖️ Ezra discusses the need for Democrats to contemplate the possibility of a convention and acknowledges the risks involved in both scenarios.* 08:22 *🗳️ Responding to a listener question, Ezra defends the democratic nature of a convention, arguing that primaries are not inherently more democratic.* 12:58 *👥 Ezra acknowledges Biden's success in maintaining unity among different factions within the Democratic party and discusses potential risks of a contested convention.* 14:34 *🌐 Ezra asserts that Trump, rather than Biden, is currently the glue holding the Democratic party together, focusing on countermobilization against Trump.* 18:05 *😕 A listener asks Ezra about Kamala Harris's low approval ratings despite being viewed warmly in private, prompting Ezra to explore the complexities of Harris's public perception.* 20:26 *🎭 Kamala Harris is perceived as more cautious and scripted on stage, which can be unfair due to biases against candidates from different backgrounds.* 21:35 *🏛️ Harris faced challenges in 2020 due to her position between the moderate and progressive lanes, struggling to define her political identity.* 23:55 *🌎 Harris' politics are rooted in California, and winning over voters in other states with different contexts, like Pennsylvania and Michigan, may pose a challenge.* 24:36 *📉 Despite a drop in esteem, there's an expectation that Kamala Harris might have a better 2024, given the low bar set, and she is considered a skilled speaker and debater.* 25:42 *🤔 Concerns raised about the risk of nominating Biden versus the risk of a potentially weaker candidate chosen at the convention, with a reference to polling data.* 27:46 *🗳️ Evaluating the upside and downside risk of Biden and other candidates, emphasizing the importance of anti-Trump sentiment as a primary motivator for Democratic voters.* 34:44 *🕰️ Three months is considered sufficient for a national campaign, and the long election period in the U.S. might not necessarily benefit candidates.* 36:47 *🚗 Ground game and campaign infrastructure are crucial, and even a candidate with less familiarity in certain states can rely on the party's existing groundwork.* 38:53 *🎉 Enthusiasm for the candidate and the product is paramount, and a well-organized ground game requires a genuinely enthusiastic voter pool.* 39:32 *🗳️ Voter Disillusionment: Many left-leaning voters, disenchanted with Biden's presidency, seek alternatives due to perceived lack of appeal and disagreement on issues like Israel-Palestine.* 40:27 *🎟️ Convention Strategy: A convention might prioritize a strategic ticket over an ideological one, focusing on key states. Concerns about Gaza and Democratic party ruptures could influence candidate selection.* 41:20 *🇮🇱 Biden's Israel Policy: Biden's approach to Israel-Palestine faces criticism for not substantively shifting policy. Calls for a new ticket that isn't tied to Biden's stance on Netanyahu and Gaza.* 43:12 *🧳 Shifting Policy: Calls for Biden to make a significant shift, like giving a speech at the Knesset, to alter perceptions. The current approach is seen as inadequate in dealing with Netanyahu.* 44:21 *😠 Voter Anger: Growing anger towards Biden on Israel-Palestine, especially on social media. Uncertainty about the issue's impact at a convention, given the unpredictable situation.* 45:18 *🏛️ Strong Incumbency Argument: The primary counterargument is that Biden-Harris is a robust ticket, and changing it carries risks. Democrats emphasize Trump as an existential threat, making a strong ticket crucial.* 46:40 *📉 Risk and Incumbency: Changing the ticket is deemed risky, especially when incumbents often have an advantage. Democrats may prefer a comfortable loss over an uncomfortable win.* 48:02 *🛑 Setting Red Lines: Democrats need to define red lines for the ticket's viability, questioning the strategy if Biden's performance weakens. May-June polling seen as crucial for decision-making.* 49:28 *🤝 Party Duty: Emphasizes the party's duty to act against perceived dangers, insisting that supporting a weak candidate contradicts their responsibility. Encourages self-reflection on individual roles within the party.* Made with HARPA AI

[@surlypiratewench1969]

That’s why NYT needs to be boycotted

[@gerriperreault6905]

Biden sidelined harris until he was sure he had the nomination. No accident.

[@lhaviland8602]

21:34 She won by a SINGLE GODDAMN POINT in 2010, Ezra.

[@stayclean777]

We all know RFK Sr. or JFK could've made mincemeat of Donald Trump. Unfortunately Joe ain't them, he don't talk good. Aside from that aspect he's been a wise, honest, effective president. This will matter in the end...my 2 cents FWIW.

[@jennysteves]

I think we live in times when we realize our flawed Perpetual Economic Growth / Environmental Overshoot /Zero Sum paradigm is no longer working but we fear, or cannot yet imagine, a different and potentially healthier paradigm that could emerge from its ashes. We are anxious, and disillusioned, and clearly stuck. So here we are, still clinging to the broken crumbling old: Trump and Biden.

[@maritapinkstaff3199]

There are plenty of low wealth and low income working people in both parties. I feel like this group of people is waiting for someone to speak to them.

[@theparadoxicaltouristtrave9320]

One of those two candidates bends policy very mildly away from those terrible extremes. And one bends towards fascism. You might not like the one who only supports those extremes 98% of the time, but it's worth it to campaign for a 2% improvement vs. An unknown decline.

[@hadiza1]

💜

[@jamesgorham8170]

I won't vote republican and am not vote blue no matter who either. My mom had Alzheimer's,I know dementia when I see it. It would be unethical and cruel not to mention stupid electorally to run Biden. Find someone competent(sorry,facts) and quick. We all know it will be a centrist,which means I will write in West most likely,but many other independents will go democratic who might sit a Biden run out.

[@willdon.1279]

So you sacrifice a competent, honest, successful administration for a criminal mafia? Clever guy!!!

[@theparadoxicaltouristtrave9320]

The democratic establishment has only once in the last half century picked a winner. Are you asking for them to change those spots? Furthermore, Biden is centrist. You are merely very conservative. If there is a fire, we call the fire department. Global warming declares that the world is on fire. The Republicans want to hire arsonists to take care of it. Biden cleared up a bit of dry brush. Nobody calls for a near immediate cessation of Carbon emissions. There are virtually no far left candidates out there. The democrats are moderate. Maybe even conservative. Just because their opponents are crazy doesn't make them liberal.

[@-Gramps]

I think you hit the nail on the head regarding VP Harris. She seems scripted & cautious when speaking, even during 1:1 interviews. I’m in rural Texas, where no one but me votes Blue. People here can be quite overtly racist, equally disparaging of Black & Brown skinned people. I have heard over 100 people complain about Harris, & 100% of the criticism is about her “woke California views.” I’ve not heard a single person mention her racial heritage. Nor have I heard racial concerns about Nikki Haley. Here in Texas, 90% of the concerns are, as you would expect, about “our open borders. I think Amy Klobuchar could do well.

[@theparadoxicaltouristtrave9320]

Excluding biden, when was the last establishment democratic candidate that won the presidency. Hint: it wasn't clinton or Carter. The establishment can't pick a candidate worth 💩. Are we asking them to pick a winner to reduce the chance of losing? If you're concerned about losing. Call. Knock. Talk to friends But asking the establishment to pick a winner is like asking a blind man to represent your country in Olympic archery.

[@sebastienloyer9471]

What about the people don't vote in this FICTION. What about people do theyr DUTY, and don't vote away their duty and rights away.

[@theparadoxicaltouristtrave9320]

They need to call Knock Talk to friends.

[@aquababy2012]

Ezra was so like a mentat on this episode. I'm so impressed by the accuracy of this analysis in the first few minutes listening to this on 7/3. Wow that I'm only 215 in likes!

[@searose6192]

8:26 A little bit? How about COMPLETELY UNDEMOCRATIC!

[@molybdaenmornell123hopp5]

It's not a leader that gets picked at a convention. It's a candidate that you then get to vote on in the general elections.

[@barbarahayes2028]

I vote for Biden and his teams, appointments and department professionals who are effective in running government.

[@MarkHWillson]

Appreciate the thoughts Ezra. Can tell you've been really thinking hard about this. I'm very on the fence with the idea of picking Harris - she may be a better candidate to run but also has so much historical baggage that I think is worth considering, and how her opponents might use it against her.

[@tammyburke9453]

Let's start now vs 3-4 months, ur crazy, Biden is our best shot!

[@maritapinkstaff3199]

I would need to see a candidate that addresses poverty in our country. I would need to see a candidate that recognizes the economic contribution of the working poor and low wage workers in our country.

[@dogsdomain8458]

Unfortunately, the federal government is very limited in what it can do to address poverty without raising taxes substantially or cutting certain programs (like military funding, which is actually mostly spent people working in the army, not on equipment.). State governments need to do things like: 1. apply land value taxes, vat taxes and Pigouvian taxes (ex. taxes on carbon, congestion, cigarettes, fast food/HF corn syrup) that are efficient and promote saving rather than consumption and also disincentivize land speculation which causes high land prices 2. being more generous with those taxes revenues via a negative income tax (basically a UBI with income limits) 3. de-regulating the housing market and just funding public housing. zoning laws prevent houses from being built 4. making homeless shelters safer so people want to stay in them (including making it harder for people to steal from each other which is a common complaint I've heard from people in those shelters. Maybe by giving people small individual rooms and lockers) 5. Bringing back asylums. A lot of homeless people are crazy and need to be put in some kind of care facility. Asylums can be humane. 6. Make it easier for poor people to find cheaper places to live, find jobs there and move. (the federal government could probably help by having agencies across the US that help poor people find jobs in low-cost-of-living areas but that actually pay well. Remember, $15 dollars in NYC or San Fran is worth much less than $15 in Idaho. 7. To add to point 6, having reliable, quick, efficient public transport both within states and between state lines. This is what European and Asian countries have and it works 8. Funding education 9. Not subsidizing poor people having more children (because that actually promotes poverty, since every child born to someone on welfare is cetris peribus much more likely to be poor or lower class themselves). We can continue supporting existing children but should tell parent that future children they have wont be subsidized. Perhaps we could even just pay them a little extra to get a vasectomy/tubal litigation. That would save the country money in the long term if really poor people actually decide to take the money and have fewer children. 10. Encourage people to form unions and protect the rights of workers to freely discuss unionization without fear of being fired. A lot of the things above are really decided on a state-level. The federal government should definitely subsidize public transportation, early childhood education and maybe implement a higher tax on really super duper high income earners (the 1% of the 1%) to help pay for things like the relocation program i described (where the federal government would basically pay a person to move and find a job in a cheaper area and provide them with temporary housing, food assistance as they settle into their new job)

[@TheLucanicLord]

I'd like to see one who wins. We can worry about everything else next time. Because that's the only way there will be a next time.

[@theparadoxicaltouristtrave9320]

So, biden with regard to student loans and the chips act?

[@cbl1984]

NOPE, just RAISING the issue brings out cries of 'Socialism'. Next question. /smh

[@lisawilliamson5012]

I totally agree with you, and admire you for breaking the taboo. It's not too late to change.

[@victoriapearce6145]

Sad that a very effective president who doesn't put in a good pony show is unpopular

[@jfkst1]

You're delusional if you think he is effective. Economy isn't attributable to the President as factors are well outside their control so I don't blame Biden for inflation. But the border crisis is 100% his fault and most Americans HATE his policies on the border.

[@stayclean777]

So true! FFS we already have more than enough "entertainment".

[@sarahknehr1362]

This!

[@56spider]

Biden has been a fake plagiarist -slightly above shoe salesman - since 1972

[@theparadoxicaltouristtrave9320]

True. Furthermore, asking the establishment to pick a winning candidate is unreasonable. Other than biden, they haven't done it since before Carter.

[@jfkst1]

Not sure approval ratings matter when voting has transformed from in person to a massive percentage of mail in balloting.

[@BrianSweeney1985]

Why? It never occurred to me the two were linked.

[@jfkst1]

@@BrianSweeney1985 Because mail in balloting makes people that would never be bothered to respond to surveys vote. It appears to low investment voters that are not willing to put in much effort to politics.

[@jybrokenhearted]

​@jfkst1 It opens the door to massive voter fraud. We need in person, paper ballot with a state issued ID by US citizens.

[@travishite3950]

Ummm Kamala Harris isn’t a progressive 😂

[@stayclean777]

What will close the gap is when the general public tunes back in to Trump's deranged public statements.

[@molybdaenmornell123hopp5]

I hope so.

[@SandeepSingh-bw9fe]

Lifelong democrat here. I would rather Trump win than cast my vote for someone who actively supported mass murder in Gaza. There is no rationality behind this decision. This is purely an FU vote.

[@ralucashu]

If elected, what will Trump do? Are you under the impression that he will support the cause of Palestinians?

[@Africanknight88]

No. but he understands the money aspect that will make crazy Netanyahu listen. No world leader fears Biden. An ultimatum will be given to the right wing government of Israel whose people want Benjamin out already.

[@joshuafrank3803]

LOL. Good luck with that strategy. How long before he reinstates his Muslim ban?

[@existentialvoid]

How about vote for US policies and leave the middle east politics at the door. I find democratic voters are in a bind - the average democratic voter does not want the US to intervene in international politics - we didn't in Syria, we left Afghanistan even though we could have kept it going for little or no cost (after what we already spent), we are not in Sudan, or Ethiopia and not even in Ukraine. . . people still buy Chinese made goods which are made with Muslim slave labor who live in actual concentration camps, our iphones and electric cars are made with minerals from actual african slave labor. . . but no one wants to intervene in any of these. . . but suddenly the Palestinian Arabs change your vote? So what about Israel upsets you so much and enough to vote against everything else. Vote for domestic political reasons, and leave the international stuff behind imo. It's better to work from what you understand rather than what has been propagandized to you. And if you do vote for international reasons, think strategically rather then emotionally. International politics is pretty cut throat and most people don't have the stomach for it.

[@willdon.1279]

Sanddeep - You really are supporting mass murderers - Hamas planned to sacrifice their people to smash an Arab peace plan. Trump ignored all Palestinians to support his criminal Likud buddy. Sorry - NO democrat could wish that. Only a Trump Troll.

[@gerriperreault6905]

Jennifer Rubin endorsed ?ed her as did Eug😮en😮e Robinson receny😅 feb 2024

[@Edo9River]

I agree with you completely about Harris . Im a S. California teacher

[@trespittman1055]

Isn't the real question how we got stuck with Biden in 2020 when there were so many better options? Why did James clyburn get to decide for the whole country before people in my state even got to vote? Also, Harris' campaign collapsed before Iowa Ezra, it wasn't about ideological swim lanes or lack of support

[@jamesgorham8170]

It's vote blue no matter who that got Biden in,with major Clyburn assist as you said. It won't work any longer imo,18 to 40 demographic is lost completely. Just going to write in West,wtf I'm in Minnesota.

[@jamesgorham8170]

It's vote blue no matter who that got Biden in,with major Clyburn assist as you said. It won't work any longer imo,18 to 40 demographic is lost completely. Just going to write in West,wtf I'm in Minnesota.

[@jamesgorham8170]

It's vote blue no matter who that got Biden in,with major Clyburn assist as you said. It won't work any longer imo,18 to 40 demographic is lost completely. Just going to write in West,wtf I'm in Minnesota.

[@theparadoxicaltouristtrave9320]

The answer was that there were 2 lanes. Progressive lane, which saw quickly that sanders was their only viable candidate and mainstream. Pete buttigug saw he could not beat both biden and sanders. He bowed out, and mainstream won. In 2023 biden was massively successful in his presidency in PROGRESSIVE issues. Huge leaps in environmental issues, massive protection for health care, both in reducing costs and accessibility, even student loans made great strides. Frankly, nobody expected such strides. And in retrospect, it's still a marvel. The mainstream had their candidate, and the Progressive wing could say nothing bad about biden. Even mtg calls him the second coming of fdr. Then October 7th came around, and it was too late to campaign. Collecting the signatures for nomination was nearly impossible. We are stuck with biden. A massively successful president on the domestic issues, and a president with mixed foreign policy. Historically, that is a good foreign policy. Only a handful of presidents didn't totally mess up foreign affairs.

[@markbantz9699]

No body talks about how old and incoherant Trump is!

[@Avengerie]

I am yet to see Trump trail off or lose his train of though in the middle of sentence.

[@molybdaenmornell123hopp5]

​@@Avengerie Covfefe? Mostly, he doesn't so much trail off as go full steam into nuance-free absurdity. He makes mistake after mistake and never admits them because he can't or because he thinks it looks weak. He would rather march decisively to disaster than stand still and think. Is America really going to vote for whoever moves faster, no matter WHERE they're actually going?

[@stayclean777]

A sincere, authentic Kamala...the ex- D.A. they had to pull off Jeff Sessions in that 2017(?) Congressional hearing, could win elections. W/Joe's age, and the VP half of the ticket looming larger, hopefully she will grow into what we need her to be. It is doable.

[@theparadoxicaltouristtrave9320]

She keeps sounding like she's not confident. I think it's the california uptalk in her accent.

[@stayclean777]

@@theparadoxicaltouristtrave9320 I know what you mean.

[@oril22]

Non-democrat here. Amy Klobuchar is the safest bet for a win. She out performs, has dealt with unreasonable people through her life, no skeletons, and occupies a nice moderate lane which will draw moderate Republicans (RFK will take his share from progressives regardless).

[@erinm9445]

Her skeleton is that she created a hostile(abusive work environment (think Steve Jobs style yelling, flipping out, etc). Don't know how much that would work against her, but I feel for sure it would work against a woman more than a man.

[@janeayre96]

“Thanks for being a fan of the pod, John”. 😂 Come on Ezra… I listen to John. Watch me bounce from progressive to moderate and back again, just that fast. I just adore a good moderate / progressive knock down drag out. Ezra wins this round… but John got his licks in. 😂

[@tuber6382]

Highly of a guy that has a son on drugs? Wow!!! Do you have a son on drugs too or do you wish you had one??