中字 20240703 米尔斯海默：美国如何避免与中国开战 Mearsheimer: How the U.S. Can Avoid War with China

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@phillee8666 2 ай бұрын

The best way to avoid the war between US and China is that China get much more military power. Power balance is the key in preventing war from happening.

@Khan-hd5vn Ай бұрын

這老白人幾乎是忽視歷史發展軌跡大聲疾呼逼免與俄羅斯開戰甚至是認為西方國家該將俄國拉入北約成為歐洲大家庭成為與美國在戰略上結盟卻是毫不掩飾與中國開戰的必要性這老兄在中國問題上根本不是什麼現實主義而是種族主義

@user-zh8dk8gi9j Ай бұрын

我正在找個詞想形容這個老白男………. 對，你說的種族主義者！發自DNA 那種

@boxing5818 2 ай бұрын

我听他的老调调很久了。他自诩为“现实主义者”。可确认识不到霸权不可能持久。在“阻吓”中国“侵略”台湾这个议题上除了空话之外，没什么有价值的战略战术提案来保证“中国赢不了”或“会损失惨重”（而美国和其根班不会？）。也从来没提过“我的国家”美国能够承受的代价。朝鲜战争的妥协是因美没有承受伤亡的能力（民众不支持政府的非正义战争，也不愿为此付出牺牲 - 孙子兵法里的“道”）。中国现在的经济，工业生产能力，军事技术水平上至少不像朝鲜战争时代了吧？他要真的是“现实主义者”，为社么从来没有对美国可能付出的代价做个评估？这代价是否可以承受？这战略智商实在是堪忧…

@lindagonzalez5513 2 ай бұрын

其实这个人是一种种族主义者，他认为中国人低人一等，应该由白人统治。这一直是他们的思维方式。中国和俄罗斯应该在美国周围建立军事基地以遏制他们并阻止他们轰炸和摧毁世界其他地区！ Actually this man is a racist he considers Chinese people inferior and should be ruled by white people. This has always been their way of thinking. China and Russia should build military bases around the US to contain them and stop them from bombing and destroying the rest of the world!

@typicalKAMBlover21 2 ай бұрын

从经济周期上来看（比如Ray Dalio的Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order分析）美国确实是一个衰落中的强权．但是中国的经济增长会很大程度上放缓，再加上人口负增长的问题，有一个还没有变富先行老去的问题．而美国作为一个移民国家，虽然本地人口负增长，美国的总体人口一直是所有发达国家中唯一的持续增长国家．所以Mearsheimer相信的是以拖待变．如果你把中国人均收入占美国人均收入的百分比，和日本人均收入占美国人均收入的百分比，进行对比，你会发现我们今天正好站在日本1970年一样的位置．但是中国的今天不可能再来一次像改革开放时期那样的双位数增长．所以美国的智库们相信，只要不让中美差距拉开，即便美国一时落后，美国移民人口和平均财富的优势仍然会在2100年左右凸显出来，导致美国再次超过中国．所以美国人所追求的是拖字诀，以最小的代价，利用自己之前建立的忠实的狗们(proxy)，尽量拖缓中国成为亚洲地区唯一强权的速度．台湾牌是一张没有成本的牌．美国为什么不打？而且美国人永远不会允许让台湾独立，台湾共和国的出现（台湾改国号或者修宪），会让其失掉台湾牌，不符合美国的战略利益．但是用台湾卡住中国的进度，是必须的．真的打起来了，美国人也只需要站在后面煽风点火，就可以让中国花费大量人力物力，即便中国在北方国家一片指责声中花大价钱收回台湾，美国还可以利用这个创造把中国拖垮的机会．我要是美国智库我也这么做．中国要想做老大，现在的老大怎么可能这么容易让其上位．

@masterwong5568 Ай бұрын

@@typicalKAMBlover21所以中国能用的最好策略就是围台穷台，以及尽量的带领更多国家逐渐的去美元化

@typicalKAMBlover21 Ай бұрын

@@masterwong5568 你说的对，但是如何在做这件事情中不明着挑衅，闷声发大财，Speak softly and carry a big stick 就是国家领导人的智慧了．

@pizlee2762 Ай бұрын

中国在最高速发张阶段90年达，00年代大部分靠廉价人工，轻工业，房地产给，如今中国的高科技，重工业，金融业，海外投资，南方市场都还没发力，你太悲观了，中国好几年就已经布局到今天这些困难，不信，我们让时间说话

@beanp2024 2 ай бұрын

Why would China attack Japan, S Korea, Australia etc. when its vital interest is national security and territorial integrity vis a vis Taiwan, that has always been legally part of China? Didn't Mearsheimer insist that Russia is only securing its vital security interest in Ukraine, and isn't looking to invade other European countries? So why one set of standards for Russia and another for China?

@lindagonzalez5513 2 ай бұрын

meirshimer is a racist bigot and looks down on Chinese he’ll do anything to keep China down and stop them from surpassing the racist white US ! It’s a matter of feeling superior and to maintain their hegemony!

@lindagonzalez5513 2 ай бұрын

Exactly! This man is a racist neocon, white supremacist it’s all about feeling superior to enslave the world ! He knows japan, South Korea, australia and the fillipines, taiwan are spineless lapdogs! This fraud was touring Asia trying to convince them to join together against China ! This all about looking down on Chinese/ Asians as inferior and the US white people as superior !

@thesheepthemightythecrazy 2 ай бұрын

Because he thinks Russia is not a danger or geopolitical rival to the USA. China is. So the double standards is reserve for China only. He thinks USA needs Taiwan to contain China. That is why he talks like that. How does USA avoid a war with China if they want to use Taiwan to contain China? Oxymoron moment.

@typicalKAMBlover21 2 ай бұрын

thesheepthemightythecrazy is right. Mearsheimer's view of competition among great powers demands that he treats Taiwan(China) and Ukraine(Russia) very differently. In his words, Taiwan is a place the US should be willing to spill steel and blood, because China is a true peer competitor, and Russia is a No.3 that is far behind. In his book, the US should have Russia on its side of the equation instead of forcing it into the embrace of Beijing.

@user-mw8pm6nc1h Ай бұрын

如果美国用这些国家的基地攻击中国，他们肯定会被攻击。而且如果美国战败，这些基地会被接收，如果这些国家抗拒会被惩罚。

@scotttao1782 2 ай бұрын

非常非常坦诚直白，米尔斯海默这个家伙有意思。换个角度看问题，有这样的对手存在，也能让你时刻保持警惕，不敢松懈怠慢！

@lindagonzalez5513 2 ай бұрын

@gfs1212 2 ай бұрын

Because Ukraine is not critical to the hegemon. 乌克兰不是霸权的核心利益。If you listen to Mearsheimer in this video, he is focused on 3 things. 如果您注意听米尔斯海默的视频，您会注意到他所注重三样重要的点。 First, containment. 第一，遏制。Two, proxy war. 第二，大国代理人战争。Third, hegemony. 第三，霸权。You can better understand his concepts once you accept that Japan, S.Korea, Taiwan, Philippines and Australia are their proxies. 您想清楚明白他的观点，必须先接受那个日本，韩国，台湾，澳大利亚和菲律宾是他们的代理人。So, if in order to contain China, they have to start a proxy war in either of these 5 places. 所以，为了遏制中国，他们必须得在这五个地方开战。

@mmaker88 2 ай бұрын

If you ask Australians how worried are they about China attacking them you will be laughed at. It is the politicians who keep saying that so the US can sell more weapons. The AUKUS deal is a case in point.

@qipaguancha 2 ай бұрын

Buying U.S. weapons helps Australia guard its trade routes from being threatened by China, but Australia's biggest trading partner is China

@thesheepthemightythecrazy 2 ай бұрын

@@qipaguancha So another oxymoronic proposal.

@typicalKAMBlover21 2 ай бұрын

You got it wrong. Australia's national security is completely in the hands of the Americans. Think about Assange. Why would any normal country sacrifice its own citizen's freedom to cater for the need of another government. Australia is no different from Japan or South Korea, it's a pushover country, a proxy of the US. In the end, Australia will always sacrifice its economic interest for national security. Australian politicians are in the pocket of the US cooperate money, just look at the most recent behaviors of Kevin Rudd. Australian people are controlled by the western media, you'd be a fool if you think otherwise.

@codzymajor 2 ай бұрын

他不能客观看中尾競爭，中国不想權力競賽、美国的恐惧心理不会讓中国和平相处，这些一切他不会理喻。

@zhuohonglin4130 2 ай бұрын

你想太多了，他看得比你更深刻。因为他知道美国主导这世界的话，有太多特权了，如果我们中国主导或者跟美国平分秋色的话，特权就没有了，就如美元，美国靠印美元，卖美债，19年疫情时，美国可以每个人至少发钱3000多美元，而且美国发的钱不止就美国通货膨胀，而是全世界通货膨胀。个人认为，如果美国没有美元来维持比较好的福利制度，就黑bro就可以让美国内战了。美国每年上百万人偷渡来美国，真以为口号民主，自由？实际赚美元，拿福利，而这些所有福利都是榨取全世界人民获得的。

@zhizhu2571 2 ай бұрын

这部分对话太多信息了！经典片段！

@user-dl8cp6li2o Ай бұрын

突破島鏈是已經發生的事，統一也是，而且不會太久

@qinfugu2816 2 ай бұрын

very direct， but his strategy doesn't work against China，because China has better strategies 😂

@lindagonzalez5513 2 ай бұрын

Yeah that racist fraud mearsheiner is very direct about harming China !

@typicalKAMBlover21 2 ай бұрын

He is just a realist, casting away the moral argument pursuing the fundamentals of the problem. He didn't propose a strategy, he is only describing what a great power under rational considerations will do.

@user-mp1kx9sf5d Ай бұрын

這兩個陰陽怪氣的，雖是人卻比鬼讓人拔涼拔涼的

@michaelwong8988 2 ай бұрын

只要認真看看中國幾千年歷史，就能夠明白世界會如何發展，美國當然會用盡所有方法去壓制中國崛起，美國不夠膽跟俄羅斯直接戰爭，當然更加不夠膽跟中國直接戰爭，如果美國不直接開戰，相信中國亦不會開戰，美國總統已經說得非常清楚，美國要跟中國激烈競爭，但不要開戰，假設中國決定強硬統一台灣，美國亦不會跟中國開戰，就等於現在俄烏戰爭，美國用其他強硬方法對付俄羅斯，當然中國應該不會學俄羅斯用戰爭手段收回台灣，中國是一個超級大國，有很多手段可以用，其中一個就是經濟手段。

@adan-yo5wf 2 ай бұрын

按照5000年的经济来说，每次屈辱百年后，就来迎来超强帝国的时期。2035年是一个重要点，等待超越美国。

@typicalKAMBlover21 2 ай бұрын

@@adan-yo5wf 这个我不乐观，我从2015年就看报道说中国即将在2019年超过美国，之后是2023，现在又说2035.没什么意思．中国超过美国了，老百姓平均收入还是美国的1/4.老百姓生活更好才有意义．我们现在的平均收入是美国的20%,跟1970时代的日本一样．中国要再来一个改革开放才有可能让中国老百姓和美国老百姓过的一样好．国家再富，老百姓都跑去走线，有什么意思．

@不与小人论短长 2 ай бұрын

老百姓都去走线？您的都是指百分之几？美国华人总共500多万，就是全算是走线的，500万/14亿=0.357%，是阁下说的都吗？您如果是＜30岁，当我没说。如果您＞30岁，建议您您多去读读书，多看看数据，多多独立思考。不要总是您觉得怎么怎么着，谁都怎么怎么样的下结论，幼稚，让人笑话。

@perrylee1913 Ай бұрын

He thinks Taiwan is a country already. This assumption is fundamentally wrong. There are 60% people in Taiwan still think they can be Chinese. They are not sure will risk death to support the idea of independence.

@chengxin2928 Ай бұрын

I love this badass.

@lyouy2383 2 ай бұрын

老头有够无耻，但还算诚实

@typicalKAMBlover21 2 ай бұрын

这个有什么无耻有耻，大国竞争从来就是不择手段．因为国家之上，不存在一个法庭可以判谁是正义的一方，或者哪个国家违规出局．枪杆子里面出政权，实力的对话而已

@user-qe1pp5wy9s 2 ай бұрын

一句话解释清楚“非我族类其心必异”！这老头用的“我们”和“他们”，跟我们古代中央帝国用的“华”和“夷”是一个意思。你是美国人，你想美国永远统治世界，我是中国人，我想中国重回巅峰时期，这就是竞争，这就是战争的起源。

@qipaguancha 2 ай бұрын

其心必异这点中国人的看法很有意思，这个异心并不是光指坏心思，对你特别好的心思也算在里面，外族为了融入你想尽一切办法拍马屁也算异心哦。美国人但凡历史再久一些就不会对那些高华高印高日之类的这么信任了，hahaha

@user-qe1pp5wy9s 2 ай бұрын

@@qipaguancha 这就是所谓的民族认同了，高华只恨自己不是白皮，永远融不进西方社会，成为鄙视链最底下的一层。中华五千年历史，什么场面没见过啊。

@tequlia50 2 ай бұрын

@@qipaguancha才240年。不過幸好現在美國沒人聽他說話。

@lindagonzalez5513 2 ай бұрын

其实这个人是一种种族主义者，他认为中国人低人一等，应该由白人统治。这一直是他们的思维方式。中国和俄罗斯应该在美国周围建立军事基地，以遏制他们并阻止他们轰炸和摧毁世界其他地区！ Actually this man is a racist he considers Chinese people inferior and should be ruled by white people. This has always been their way of thinking. China and Russia should build military bases around the US to contain them and stop them from bombing and destroying the rest of the world!