There was a rapid increase of money supply even before that. From 2010 to 2020 money supply rose by roughly 160 % without central banks meeting their inflation targets (or barely). Household net worth in the US trippled and gold was up just 10 %.
@Bolognabeef10 сағат бұрын
This seems so incredibly simplified. Obviously there's no inflation, the community is part of a wider economy and the increase wasn't in Kenyan Shillings but USDs, so money wasn't printed out of thin air like Friedman was implying, but it was a transfer of wealth by US citizens to Kenyans. Really tricky video, to justify a correct and already known ending...
@MoneyMacro10 сағат бұрын
@@Bolognabeef no. They chose the area because of its economic isolation. Money was distributed not in USD but in local currency. So, it was essentially printed out of this air. This is why the researchers actually expected some inflation going in
@Dominic416_9 сағат бұрын
@@MoneyMacrohow did they get that local currency? It wasn’t printed out of thin air it was exchanged for USD.
@MoneyMacro9 сағат бұрын
@@Dominic416_ Why does that matter for the context of a local relatively isolated economy? Do you think an exchange rate movement somehow would have countered this?
@epgui10 сағат бұрын
Is there anything we could infer, based on these studies (or any other study), as to strategies for improving homelessness in large cities in developed countries? For example I am thinking of the type of situation you find in San Francisco or Vancouver. One would think there'd be first-order similarities between these issues-- But it's unclear how far you can take the comparison because the structural causes of these issues is a bit different.
@bignate1010 сағат бұрын
Wow. Great video
@prasenjeetrathore10 сағат бұрын
Nauru 🇳🇷 probably had more money during phosphorus mining boom. And they spend it all 😂
@onchz131410 сағат бұрын
Milton Friedman's theories were meant to describe a developed economy like the US, so it's not surprising that these predictions wouldn't hold in a very underdeveloped economy like rural Kenya. They also tried cash transfers in the US and found that there was no significant long term benefit after 3 years.
@MoneyMacro9 сағат бұрын
@@onchz1314 to my knowledge Friedman did not limit his theories to advanced economies. In fact, he was very much involved in development economics, e.g. in South America. If you have a reference to back up what you say, I would love to read it and post a correction of course
@lordcommanderdire511310 сағат бұрын
Hey Money Macro, i dont know if youve already done a video like this before, but would you consider doing a "How Britain can fix its economy and start growing again" sort of video please? :)
@Dominic416_10 сағат бұрын
Is this a paid sponsorship?
@MrGolibroda10 сағат бұрын
In the short-term I have no reason to doubt the results in impoverished and uneducated countries. These people are still motivated, optimistic, looking forward to a better future and establishing their companies. Once the market consolidates and corpo take over injustice, perception will rise leading to the conclusion that they can live off welfare programs. These programs greatly depend on people's attitudes and knowledge.
@JoeJackaboa10 сағат бұрын
Addictive catnip for anyone interested in economic theory, i was intrigued by what you said about how regions staffed by solopreneurs have greater slack, did I get that right, where can we hear more about that?
@MoneyMacro10 сағат бұрын
@@JoeJackaboa in the interview on money & macro talks. See link in description of the video
@airbound177910 сағат бұрын
Free money isn’t useful unless there’s a reserve bank managing labor. Tired of this argument that free money by itself benefits long-term economic development. It’s nothing but a tool of economic colonialism.
@Dominic416_10 сағат бұрын
Friedmans statement is better contradicted by the 2010-2020 ZIRP period with massive money printing and no inflation. Not this random African experiment where they are just importing more stuff.
@Dominic416_10 сағат бұрын
‘Money given in local currency’ actually means USD converted to local currency, spent by locals on imports, converted back to USD.
@TheAmericanAmerican10 сағат бұрын
Money is like 💩 in that if you pile it up high in one spot, all it does is stink. However, if you spread it around nice and evenly, it makes things grow! Translation for the coping Milton Freedman kiddies: If you let the rich get all the money through tax breaks and loopholes, they will just hoard it in offshore bank accounts where it will forever stay doing NOTHING for the economy. But if we were to implement a global wealth tax on say every dollar/euro/pound over 999 million, then ya better believe we would see an economic boom like never seen before!
@Baamthe25th10 сағат бұрын
Friedman wouldn't have said that it would create inflation, though.
@heldercaze633310 сағат бұрын
In truth i believe that the low inflation is more realitioned with productivity growth because the capital influx.
@playyourturntodieatvgperson10 сағат бұрын
wish I could afford to donate
@playyourturntodieatvgperson10 сағат бұрын
Personally, I think that donating money directly and importing goods from the countries in need are the most effective ways to help.
@adrianpaulwynne10 сағат бұрын
really interesting, thanks for sharing
@sproo641210 сағат бұрын
Give money to the poor and you'll benefit the economy because they have unmet needs that they'll immediately seek to meet and economic activity will increase. Give money to the rich and you'll hurt the economy because the money gets sequestered as they do not have unmet needs, meaning the greater value of those resources has been removed from the economy. This is why tax cuts for the rich make zero sense. Or as Will Rogers said, "Give it to the poor and the rich will have it by nightfall, but at least it wen through some poor folk's hands".
@upstateNYfinest10 сағат бұрын
This comment section is wild. People cant seem to accept that the absolutes posed by milton friedman might not be 100% correct. Friedman was a non-quantitative theoretical economist. That isnt to say his work added no value, but it is to say that he wasnt right about everything, or nearly everything. Just like every other economist since adam smith.
@Carthodon10 сағат бұрын
I think the problem here is the degree to which you can extend the findings of this study with larger conclusions, and this comment section reminds me of the OpenAI funded UBI research where it was clear that there was an agenda being pushed. The study doesn't really change my views on either what should be done to deal with poverty or the mental blindspots of people involved in this space, and the disproportionate response suggests I'm not wrong to feel that way.
@TheAmericanAmerican10 сағат бұрын
First time encountering Miton fans? Yea they can be quite the embarrassing lot, as is expected by a bunch of teenage boys who think they understand economics after reading Atlas Shrugged 🤣
@cartrollator989910 сағат бұрын
This is such a gem of a video
@olafsigursons10 сағат бұрын
Who was right, Friedman or Keynes? yes
@scpatl4now10 сағат бұрын
This could have real world implications here in the US. Instead of distributing aid via FEMA, just give it to the people who need it, like in Western North Carolina after Helene. You eliminate all the middle man costs
@TheAmericanAmerican10 сағат бұрын
A scientifically proven study showing how much of a quack Milton Freedman really was? Christmas came early friends! 🥳 I will be donating to Give Directly now to celebrate our unshackling from hair-brained economic "theories"!
@northofself10 сағат бұрын
That's a really creative and well-conceived experiment. Good on the researchers and the new topics this will open up
@Proletarian-ud8du10 сағат бұрын
I'm not surprised by the results of this study at all! Ever since I came into contact with the hack Friedman's theories years ago I dismissed it as nonsense. Keynesian theories made much more sense to me and now see we can see plain as day what it can accomplish. We can also deduce that Keynesian wconomic theory was probabalu one of the major factor for economic growth here in the west during the middle 20th century. However, it's noteworthy that this is a short term program of only 2,5 years. A longer program would most likely produced even more dramatic results and likely boosted the economy quite a bit more. I hope this will put these annoying neoliberals and monetarists in their place. Confidently incorrect smuglords.
@TheAmericanAmerican10 сағат бұрын
Based! ✊️
@Alex-ee5pl10 сағат бұрын
don't be ridiculous, have you suffered brain damage recently?
@royboyshaw333210 сағат бұрын
This study is transformational. It's always been frustrating to know that whole donations don't reach those in need because of admin, fees, and other variables. I hope this method can be replicated by different organizations. Thanks for taking the time to share this!
@AUniqueHandleName4449 сағат бұрын
Give Directly is nowhere near the point of saturation, there really isn't a need for a similar org at the moment.
@davidwitt619810 сағат бұрын
Very very excellent info and presentation! What might be interesting in (extreme) future studies is at what point of poverty / relative wealth the free money DOES create inflation (for the future of UBI application)
@MoneyMacro10 сағат бұрын
Absolutely..I talked to egger about this in my interview with him (near the end)
@周羽-v3j10 сағат бұрын
I’m Chinese and I must say the two countries has a big difference. I just want to say one point,China is a communist country and the workers always think they are the owner of the country,and most of them just focus on their own job and don’t like to do something that make their leaders feel good and comfortable , but the Indians is opposite,most of them are focus on how to make their leaders happy and forget what their truly job is, and if you are the leader you definitely like the Indians because Indians knows what drink and temperature you like and always make you feel happy, but if you are the boss you definitely don’t want Indians because they are talking too much but doing so little, and that’s why Chinese hear something like India will be next China will laugh,India,from the bottom to the top,all of them are talking too much but doing so little and just dreaming .
@markwithak205510 сағат бұрын
USD DOWN -35% YTD versus GOLD. The USD used to be fixed at 35 USD per OZ untill 1971. Then "temporary suspended" by Nixon right?
@petermalindzak688610 сағат бұрын
But from total state point of view the amount of money was insignificant.
@MoneyMacro10 сағат бұрын
Yes.. But, they tracked how much money left the local economy and determined it to be relatively self contained because most people still travel by foot and buy and produce locally
@lt883310 сағат бұрын
Stop shitting on Milton Friedman's name
@MoneyMacro10 сағат бұрын
Friedman was a scientist. No reason to think he would not have appreciated the evidence based approach.
@2023_GJ10 сағат бұрын
@@MoneyMacro Exactly. Unfortunately most ideologues don't understand that science isn't the same as hero worship.
@lt883310 сағат бұрын
"science"
@TheAmericanAmerican10 сағат бұрын
@@lt8833no. That's sociopath deserves every criticism laid on him. He, Ronald Reagan, and Margaret Thatcher are the reason why both the USA and UK have seen the rich get ever richer while the middle class has shrunk(AKA fallen into the poor class).
@markwithak205510 сағат бұрын
@@lt8833 That's why they block replies such as "No worries, Nobel prize winner helicopter Ben will save us all"
@cauwenberghsroeland860710 сағат бұрын
The programm is non-sense, because all those people knew that the "free money" was but for a while... Anyhow, they couldn't act as it was granted... AND , where "free money" does exist, as social aid, there is no place for accepted "informal" economy...This means, this study is of no value. Even less, because there will be differences as well in function of culture, natural environment, market structure. But, IF accès to ground is relatively free, you can imagine that they will invest it ... Better have a wheelbarrow than to have to carry , better a two-wheel charriot than a wheelbarrow... better a pomp ...than carry buckets of water... Where is the city ? What about waterreserves, acces to the market, etc...And, if their production would expand, but not OUR consumption, the growing part of the market would make other people sell less or for less money... This "study" is just transforming human beings in toys to play....and have a topic to make carreer , big show, you've seen my face...: narcissic psychopathy.
@tuomasronnberg524410 сағат бұрын
You spend a lot of words to not make much sense. Your opening paragraph consists of English words, but don't form a coherent thought.
@juanmiguelreyesguerr10 сағат бұрын
Your writing is incomprehensible, either because you need English lessons or because you really don’t have any true ideas to express, just feelings.
@TheAmericanAmerican10 сағат бұрын
@@juanmiguelreyesguerr Common Miton Freedman Fan L on full display 😂
@ahmednadim585911 сағат бұрын
Doesn't still Milton Freidmen was right that cash transfers are better than most types of paternalistic government welfare programs. Also doesn't also show how useless the aid industrial complex is since its literally worse than throwing money at the problem.
@Dominic416_10 сағат бұрын
They are the same. Both increase the consumption of the state without increasing the production. Usually they are debt based so it actually does decrease consumption longer term.
@MoneyMacro10 сағат бұрын
@@ahmednadim5859 interesting take! I talked about a similar take with Egger at length in the interview on M&M Talks. I linked it to Hayek rather than Friedman.
@goodyearspokane11 сағат бұрын
If only the barbers weren't so greedy the world over
@Omer1996E.C11 сағат бұрын
Dear big hearted aid donators, if you send aids directly to people like this, as an african, thanks, we really appreciate it. If you send it like the USAID/US government, I can't thank you, because these always help our governments to stay repressive, use the money to buy arms from your country, and use it on our protesters to protect their thrones. Please, oppose government to government aids. We prefer no aid whatsoever instead of this. Thank you
@pauladam286711 сағат бұрын
I like when you explain academic economy in layman terms, more so than news recaps. But I'm ok with both
@baltulielkungsgunarsmiezis971411 сағат бұрын
I wish they dropped 10 millon in highland Latvija. Also I suspect the resuls would be different so if any rich scientists are interested...
@martin_kass10 сағат бұрын
Latvia mentioned 🇱🇻
@fnansjy45610 сағат бұрын
I think I might move to the Latvian Highlands if that happens
@ivani323710 сағат бұрын
@@fnansjy456 There is no highlands in Latvia, bro
@A-qw4fw11 сағат бұрын
Very nice
@indigosnow_11 сағат бұрын
Neat
@MoneyMacro11 сағат бұрын
Happy holidays everyone!. Please visit www.givedirectly.org/macro/ to support groundbreaking research like this and help send life changing cash to 164 families in a Kenya directly, no strings attached.
@CirclingDuck11 сағат бұрын
There's an error in the first 3 seconds. The year is actually 2024.
@baltulielkungsgunarsmiezis971411 сағат бұрын
The study occured in 2014...
@briantang644011 сағат бұрын
Good on you for noticing that it is currently 2024🎉
@2023_GJ10 сағат бұрын
Maybe where you are.
@18meter10 сағат бұрын
2020s is just a bad dream, wake up.
@pyeitme50811 сағат бұрын
Bruh
@golagiswatchingyou296611 сағат бұрын
On paper Germany should be doing very well, it has all the wealth, tech, knowledge and positioning to be a powerful economy into the future and it will be a powerful economy in the future. But the problem with Germany is that it's political class and demographic issues are a gapping wound that continue to cause problems, the fact the Scholtz government has fallen is very good but it does not erase the years of bad policies they had enforced, not to mention the legacy of Merkel which has in my view been mostly a disaster for Germany's and the EU's overal growth. Germany has gutted it's energy sector (on purpose) and then found itself being tied to Russia which is now not just mostly over but has aided the Russian war machine, the reconstruction costs will also be massively costly for Europe as a whole. Germany has betrayed both it's own people and it's fellow European economies by it's policies and while it could still change course the political will seems very lacking. German democracy has always been a bit of a scam, it's cardon sanitary and authoritarianism has not exactly been hidden from most people, this does not create confidence and worst of all Germans themselves seem unaware of this long term decline in competent leadership. Germany needs radical change and a pragmatic policy change and less far left radicalism which has dominated them for so long. If you wonder what I mean by far left policies, just look up whatever the Grune party says or the other coalition parties that work with them, they are all far left extremists.
@thelasttellurian11 сағат бұрын
Here is an idea for your next video: Have we reached peak humanity?
@mav4567811 сағат бұрын
13:35 Zeighan's argument is that China's fleet mostly consists of ships which can only operate with 1000 miles (IIRC) from Chinese coast, which is not enough to protect most of the trade routes Chinese imports and exports depend on.
@abhishekjain314811 сағат бұрын
11:00 One India One Election can fix this part at least. While there are many ethical and logical arguments against this, it definitely adds to the pros list