First I want to thank you for your educational videos! In this backtest the stop-loss and and and commissions are not shown. Can you give us those inputs? Tnx in advance 😊
@zerodaymark21 сағат бұрын
Lol just noticed that I cut that off in the screenshots. $0.05 entry & $0.15 exit slip.
@beregesh20 сағат бұрын
@zerodaymark no stop loss?
@pilotstefan1322Күн бұрын
Ive learnt more from Mark in the last few months if him starting his channel than i have over the last few years watching numerous channels!
@richardcui48172 күн бұрын
hahah, John Grady and you are all legit traders.😂
@jotunngigantopithacus2 күн бұрын
For the first SPY strategy, your sub ought to retest the trade with a 3:59 forced exit. OO assumes that these SPY 0dte options are worth 0 cents at 4 pm if they are OTM at that time. That is never the case and at minimum they are gonna be 1 cent at that time. So the only way to get accurate data with their service on SPY is to never let options expire in the backtest, always exit at 3:59 pm or earlier. That has a good chance of ruining the backtest.
@reason-i4p2 күн бұрын
Any differences between using XSP vs SPY options?
@zerodaymark2 күн бұрын
XSP is cash settled you cant get assigned and the fees are less also
@anthonylowe70682 күн бұрын
Hey Mark who is the host of the derivatives podcast you referenced in this video? Thanks as usual.
@zerodaymark2 күн бұрын
RCM alternatives
@NYWhitewater2 күн бұрын
Great video, really appreciate all your content and advice.
@lightmediaproduction2 күн бұрын
Amazing content. Would love to see more of this type of videos with links to the backtest. I know it’s a lot to ask but thought I would just throw it out there
@zerodaymark2 күн бұрын
I can link them. I mostly do not because I think it is a good skill for people to be inputting the back test to get better at the skill fo testing. I also wanted to respect the viewer that shared their options omega portfolio to not openly link it across the internet
@caiobortoli2 күн бұрын
For calendars I prefer to open them Friday aswell, but I go for weeklies only. When you do same week exp. calendars (like short Wednesday long Friday) you can get squeezed by vol shrink since the expirations are so close for so little credit. So I put them at least 1 week apart (like on Fridays I go short next weeklies and long the weekly after that one) because that's what's worked best. When you go for 2 to 4 days apart calendars it's like going for a tiny little credit spread. There's just so little juice to squeeze for so much vol risk.
@zerodaymark2 күн бұрын
Nice i do some of that also. Do you have any fixed mechanics for delta time and profit take / stop loss I would like to back test it and take a closer look
@caiobortoli2 күн бұрын
@@zerodaymark I found out that calendars behave much like butterflies, but you can leg in & out paying less commissions and slippage due to them being 2 legs instead of 4. Diagonals also behave like Broken wings when the long option goes further OTM. I love things like ratio spreads, BwBs and diagonals when tech stocks goes like 2 times weekly std in just a few days, IV rank is on the roof and further OTM calls are very rich. When you do a BwB for a credit you are basically buying a cheap vertical and selling a rich one. These types of spreads tend to decay 50% of it's premium VERY fast. As you probably already know, 8 delta options loses 50% of it's value sooner than 16 delta options, which also will get to 50% sooner than 30 delta, 50 delta being the slowest. When large moves occur the discrepancy goes even further. But I won't digress further haha to answer your question: I generally do diagonals shorting fronth week 16 delta, going long back week between 16 and 8 delta. So not too much "diagonal" but it's not a calendar anymore either. I'm a bit discretionary but a good rule of thumb is to have a call calendar each time there's a 2 std up move for the period (2 std weekly move in less than a week, 2 STDs monthly move in the middle of the month, but in this case I do it with monthlies)
@caiobortoli2 күн бұрын
@@zerodaymarkmy reply isn't showing here, let me know if you can't see it
@zerodaymark2 күн бұрын
@ Yeah i cant see it
@sandstorm9732 күн бұрын
Amazing ideas. Thank you.
@andrekirsch-ur2id3 күн бұрын
I cant believe this video only has 917 views, so much sauce here
@globaltraders13385 күн бұрын
That one dude got those crazy eyes with the brows that look like he just blew a 5k trade on 0dte lol😅 when it dipped on those options
@thebrownguy96 күн бұрын
serious value in this video thank you!
@Mr.Anderson-y2j7 күн бұрын
Great video. What percentage stop loss are you using for these backtests? How does the stop affect the results?
@zerodaymark7 күн бұрын
The mechanics are listed within the video. Stop loss manage your risk so managing your risk regardless of the result is worth it. As long as your slippage assumptions are accurate with what you have programmed in your backtest they will not affect your results in live trading and you will match the backtest
@Mr.Anderson-y2j6 күн бұрын
@@zerodaymark Sorry, I couldn't see them on my phone. I had to review on a bigger screen.
@borrow09877 күн бұрын
Have you tried to test it for years before 2021? For 2020 we could say that it was an exception year(COVID), but for 2019 it also doesn't work. Wondering what would be the reason for that, since the rebalancing strategy should be the same for the institutional
@zerodaymark7 күн бұрын
There has been a much larger rise in the use of ETF's and mutual funds so that could be it but for a niche trade like this I would not expect it to be as accurate dating further back
@borrow09877 күн бұрын
Pure edge, thank you! 🙏
@brandond28687 күн бұрын
I don't know how you guys trade this. With 1.00 credit and up to 100 points wide you will be buying long leg at .05 ish. This is looking to make 100 while risking almost 1,000. And then same on the other side. But on 0 DTE this is with in a 1%-2% move, which the market does on a daily basis. Without taking profit targets and letting this expire you are just asking to get blown up.
@zerodaymark7 күн бұрын
We manage these trades with resting stops so our risk is not that of the width of the spread but rather a multiple of the credit we receive. But yes if the exchange instantly shutdown that is the risk. So if you take in $1 of credit and manage at a 4x stop we are risking 4 to make 1
@brandond28687 күн бұрын
@@zerodaymark Well that makes since, but then that is not what your backtesting. Your back test is 700% or something which is closer to full risk. But if in reality your testing 1:4 then you should have that in the auto-back test. I assume you will have a lower win rate, but you won't blow up. But with lower win rate you will hurt your CAGR as well. But that is a more realistic trading plan.
@richardcui48178 күн бұрын
This is the shit i want to learn about trading. Not doing some random technical analysis and size heavily into a gamble.
@richardcui48178 күн бұрын
Man, this is some high quality stuff. Really anti-guru😂
@brandond28688 күн бұрын
The CAGR or compound annual growth rate on this strategy doesn’t seem worth trading. That last one was 1%. Is that even worth compounding? A CD would beat that with no risk. Also, that is a naked option so huge risk. You said buy protection, so if you added the spread for .05 to your 1.00 or .90 credit, this gets even worse and now your CAGR would be even lower. I'm not sure this is viable in the current iteration.
@zerodaymark7 күн бұрын
It should be traded as a spread we are just displaying the naked option in the test to get the most accurate data for testing purposes the cost of the wing is worked in on the entry slippage. If you are testing it I would encourage you to test just since SPX dallies and as a vertical spread the return and risk to reward become much more attractive
@brandond28687 күн бұрын
@@zerodaymark I think the most accurate data would be what you actually trade. Why not just put the wings in there and have slippage for those as well?
@zerodaymark7 күн бұрын
@@brandond2868 I only manage the short leg so I believe this is the most accurate way to backtest because by only managing the short leg if I tested as a spread my stop would hit $0.05 to $0.10 earlier than in options omega because it is buying back both legs. I also think the slippage here is overstated I often beat the stop loss slippage by $0.10. It is more just preference i like to be really brutal on my backtest parameters because it prevents me from looking at trades that probably are not very profitable and makes my max drawdown more unrealistic because they are overstated by the backtest parameters. Basically under promise over deliver
@xKeithKimballx9 күн бұрын
Mark, for your double calendars, do you enter them as separate single calendars in TAT or as doubles? And thank you for all the videos! It's been an amazing learning experience!!
@zerodaymark9 күн бұрын
About half and half if they test the same i prefer to enter singles because their are less variables in the back test so I think that is more accurate to match the results
@xKeithKimballx5 күн бұрын
@@zerodaymark Thanks! Btw, do you have a referral link for Options Omega?
The total numbers since SPX daily are good, BUT...The back-test shows for some reason calendar strategy start losing money from October 2024 and continues...This is 100+ days loses. Some comments on this will be appreciated.
@zerodaymark9 күн бұрын
Yeah it depends a little so when you look back to 2016 it is quite common that a trade will loose an entire year on Mondays, Wednesdays or Friday entrances but never stays that way for 2 consecutive years just based on the gaps that occurred during that year. So i would say diversify your days of week entry first. in regards to all calendars getting smoked since then calendars often have small wins and large losses and are risk defined so edge can be much smaller since we had the massive VIX spike along with vol being held up with the election that really dragged calendars performance from those two events. Also in regards to expectations even the best strategies i expect to not make any money over 90 days periods about 1 quarter a year the real thing is if that happens for 2 or 3 quarters in a row its a red falg
@tonyelias10 күн бұрын
Great video
@EscapeTheMatrix-o4c11 күн бұрын
mechanical trades are boring yet net profitable
@tylermullinax971311 күн бұрын
Hey Mark!! Just recently discovered your channel, but I love your theories and backtesting methodology. I am planning on putting some of your concepts into practice this year. Do you have any books you would recommend??
@zerodaymark11 күн бұрын
I would recommend trading small to get experience and backtesting. Navigation trading is a good community. Options volatility and pricing by nattenburg and positional options trading by sinclair are good
@Phil-lip8512 күн бұрын
Hi Mark, I was curious, on the backtest of the power hour strategy "130/230 EMA 5>40'", how do you program the Exit condition "Exit when Put Tested"? I don't see that rule in OO explicitly. Is it some combination of exit parameters?
@Phil-lip8512 күн бұрын
Disregard, I found it. Thanks for all the info!
@caiobortoli12 күн бұрын
To optimize this strategy's execution and improving the winrate, maybe instead of opening positions at fixed timeframes you go for fixed market moves in % so you are cost averaging the distribution of returns? Like opening a new spread every 0,5% move in spx instead of every 15 minutes. And of course setting a TP aswell. I would go for 50% TP (If your spreads are OTM, if they are ATM something like 25%) and 100% stop loss instead. Aren't you a Stop loss user yourself? What's your approach like, cutting losses when it breaches previously chosen price level instead of a fixed % of premium collected?
@zerodaymark12 күн бұрын
I am 100% mechanical and execute everything on the exact same daily predefined mechanics. You could do all of that and it would make sense if it tested better
@PadmaInguva12 күн бұрын
How do you set up bots for this? I am using TradeSteward and tranches and slippage at SL are a little iffiy for now. I watched most of your videos. Would appreciate one more video on TS.
@polomarkos13 күн бұрын
so can we conclude that most of the times....when you take more risk you make more money?
@zerodaymark12 күн бұрын
I would in terms of width of spread yes in terms of selling no there is definitely a clear diminishing point of return from the drawdowns incurred from selling to much credit comparative to the return
@swami9113 күн бұрын
Alternative to stop loss is to keep the Capital requirement low?
@zerodaymark13 күн бұрын
Yes trade very small and trade vertical spreads with stop losses. i sell about 1.5% of my account per day in credit so pretty small
@AssBlasterInThe1000112 күн бұрын
@@zerodaymark does this mean you risk 1.5% of the acc with a stop or collect 1.5% of the acc in credit?
@AssBlasterInThe1000112 күн бұрын
@@zerodaymark Do you mean that you sell 1.5% of the account such that you risk 1.5% of the account with a stop or you sell enough spreads to get 1.5% of the account in credit?
@lightmediaproduction11 күн бұрын
@@zerodaymark is this an iron condor your putting on?
@zerodaymark11 күн бұрын
@lightmediaproduction yes but managed as separate verticals you can enter as a iron condor or vertical spread
@Mr.Anderson-y2j13 күн бұрын
How do you manage your spreads when the market moves against you? When do you roll or close positions?
@zerodaymark13 күн бұрын
I always manage with a pre defined stop loss at the time of trade entrance
@karthiks97092 сағат бұрын
@@zerodaymarkare your long vols the wings for your credit spreads.
@kennethdoucette605215 күн бұрын
Mark, you mentioned bots being important and preferring Interactive Brokers. How does Think or Swim compare to IB regarding the API integrations?
@zerodaymark15 күн бұрын
there is basically no difference you can use which ever one you like best you can use tradesteward on think or swim
@lightmediaproduction15 күн бұрын
Mark, just so I understand correctly if I want to place this trade would I sell a put in spx for a $1.00 credit and buy a put for protection at .O5 cents around 3:25 eastern time
@zerodaymark13 күн бұрын
Correct I sell them in one order as a vertical spread but yes the credit target is correct
@wid390816 күн бұрын
Why are you suggesting to use vix max 15 filter if it reduces the capture rate
@zerodaymark15 күн бұрын
I think you should always traded it I was giving an example that even when it is below a 15 VIX it still has a positive expected return and in aggregate trading it with no filters yields a better P/ L
@artifactsantlersoh17 күн бұрын
I got bit. Had to throw in the towel. Had large success for 14 trading days in a row (lucky timing) zero skill. Promptly gave it back
@thebrownguy910 күн бұрын
thats a quick give up but no worries its not for everyone
@artifactsantlersoh9 күн бұрын
@ yeah, wasn’t for me. The thrill of making 10k in 2 weeks was too euphoric that it made me wanna chase easy money. I chased and did he market happily took it right back. The feeling after? 100% awful. I’d rather not feel that again and live somewhere in the middle of those two emotions loo
@jayeshchhabra53296 күн бұрын
What were you doing specifically? 0 DTE options on SPX? Or was it something else
@artifactsantlersoh6 күн бұрын
@ 0DTE SPY
@schen31417 күн бұрын
Any strategy for smaller account e.g. $10,000 ?
@zerodaymark16 күн бұрын
No I would recommend not trading unless you have a minimum of $30k just stick to index funds and focus on working at a skill that produces more income
@wid390817 күн бұрын
200% stop loss is $3 or $2 stop if you collect a $1? Is the 200% a net stop ?
@zerodaymark16 күн бұрын
Yes it is net stop so if you sell $1 200% stop would be loosing $2 or buying back the order for $3
@JoelMillar-i6u17 күн бұрын
Awesome! Thanks for the generosity
@RaziJavaherian17 күн бұрын
Single best 0 DTE presentation I have seen keep it up
@swami9117 күн бұрын
sorry, today it did not work..
@pilotstefan132217 күн бұрын
Awesome stuff Mark! If we were looking to enter when the imbalance is greater than 2bln at 15.48 is there any sources where the nunbers are released prior to 15.48? The financial juice site doesnt release them until 1550/1551.
@zerodaymark16 күн бұрын
They release estimates every 10 minutes the last hour if you want to peg it to that I would just make the test enter at 350 or 351 and backtest off that
@Flamtaps17 күн бұрын
This got burned today - also its kind of lame that you comment on your own videos using your alts
@pilotstefan13224 күн бұрын
It's free content, if you don't appreciate it don't watch it!
@jayeshchhabra532918 күн бұрын
in regards to slippage and execution, when you're buying and selling do you typically get filled (and thus calculate slippage) as at the opposition price? I.e. if you're exiting a trade do you exit at the bid price and vice versa enter at the ask?
@zerodaymark17 күн бұрын
I like to use 3-5% of the exit premium price for stop loss slippage. For orders that are bought or entry orders i like about 2% slippage of the price to enter or exit does not matter if its buy or sell stop loss slippage is the only one on credit trades that i calculate differently
@billybellomy987018 күн бұрын
Any reason why last Friday AND last trading day? Does it work better with either, or, or both? Not a get rich trade but the risk reward looks phenomenal!
@zerodaymark18 күн бұрын
It is based on the market on close imbalance which is often very high on those particular days
@mikevogell748818 күн бұрын
What is the trade?
@mcdawgzy18 күн бұрын
Man you are a legend - I've got like 5/6 systematic strategies just from your videos alone.... which would be the top 3 strategies i should focus on as a beginner?
@zerodaymark18 күн бұрын
I would focus more on the act of just placing 3-4 strategies at a small size and matching the backtest as close as you can that is the underlying skill. Keep checking the backtest vs the forward test every week and once you have done that for 6-8 weeks you can think about optimizing trades or adding more but make sure you can match the trades first
@lightmediaproduction16 күн бұрын
@mcdawgzy would you be able to expand on the strategies your working with. I got two strategies so far from mark but i have not gotten the chance to go through all his videos yet. any tips would be greatly appreciated.