You’re welcome! I appreciate the support

Yes, definitely downward pressure on prices. The market is softening

Yeah Vermont doesn't have much diversity

You too Jefferson! Appreciate the support

They have lot data available on the site. I left the link in the description if you’d like. Lots are much more variable. There are fewer comparables, and vary greatly in price based on accessibility and improvements.

@@vermonteconomicrealtorthank you!

Westmore, depending on the lot and size, can be considered a desirable area of the NEK

Glad you liked it! Thank you for the comment

@@vermonteconomicrealtor Hey, thanks for your reply. Do you face any problems to continue your youtube journey?

In what way?

@@vermonteconomicrealtor I can help you if you want

Thank you Jefferson!

That's true. Insurance especially in some parts of the country make owning a home nearly unaffordable.

20 years old and already working towards your first property. That's amazing! There are some good duplexes on the market in the Barre area and the numbers seem to work well. Let me know if you need any help. I do work down in Barre. I appreciate the support on the channel!

Congratulations! That’s amazing. Holding on to your first property is a great decision. It’ll pay off in the years to come. Wishing you all the best at the new home

Thank you Jefferson!

Depends on the market. Interest rates have increased quite a bit which has slowed the market nationally. If you can put yourself in a position where you're not in a rush to buy, that will allow you to submit a handful of offers under list price to try to get a good deal.

@vermonteconomicrealtor Great Thank you for the feedback. I haven't seen many recent videos on sell/buy due to a move. I may need to close twice in one day. Cool topic to consider.

That's a great idea. I've done 4 of those transactions this past year. Definitely possible in the current market.

Great! I appreciate the support!

I appreciate the congratulations! Thank you for the valuable insight. Those trends you've noticed are interesting. It makes sense that more rural areas or places in Florida away from the ocean decline first and rebound last. It seems like those areas have less demand than the cities or oceanfront property. It does seem like VT is starting to mirror Florida. I appreciate the continued support Jefferson!

I'm glad you're finding this channel helpful! Happy to connect you with an agent in Oklahoma when you're ready to start looking.

Did you watch the whole video? I’m talking about significant increase in home buyers compared to this year’s extreme lows. Yes, home buyer demand is still way down from before the pandemic. It seems like you watched 30 seconds of this video before writing this comment

Truly is...

Depends on how you look at it I guess. Data is showing a big uptick of buyers, but we’re still well below pre pandemic demand

That’s an interesting perspective as well. Maybe most home buyers purchased their property in 2021-22 and that’s why demand is suppressed. My only thought with that is demand declined drastically as interest rates rose from 22-24. Because interest rates and home buyer demand appear to be correlated, I don’t think we would have seen the reduction in home buyer demand if rates haven’t fallen. If everyone who wanted to buy a home did so from 2020-22, we would’ve seen a drop off in demand before the rate hike cycle. That’s just a theory though. I appreciate your perspective

@@vermonteconomicrealtor in my area, sales stayed pretty high into early 2023. Life in general was much more affordable a few years ago. I think the covid housing boom had much more to do with the stimulus, extra savings, and work from home boom. If rates were high during the pandemic I think it still would have played out the exact same way

That very well could be. I don't think there's a way to know for sure whether rates or direct stimulus played a larger roll into the pandemic boom. Great points. Thank you

That's a possibility, although I'm not sure if downpayment influences mortgage rates. If you are putting less than 20% down you need to pay private mortgage insurance with your monthly payment. That's a separate fee to protect the lender against default, and applies to the APR, but I don't think PMI impacts the mortgage rate. I'll have to look into that further. I appreciate the comment!

Where can I find resources on what hedge funds are doing in my local market?

@hychiu1610 , I'm not sure. If you are a small market they may not be doing anything. Blackstone, and some other funds are selling off single family homes in Florida. They are also dumping apartments. There's some weird stuff going on in Texas. Some large builders are trying to liquidate inventory. I would just look into which of these big companies own property in my area, and see if they are selling. I live in a smaller community, town of about 70k people. Blackstone doesn't operate here.

It sounds like you have a great thing going with your new build. Have construction experience and family to help with the build goes a long way. Watching for hedge funds selling homes for cheap is a good strategy. That will happen in a few specific markets (some parts of Florida, potentially Atlanta and Vegas). Hedge funds don't purchase property in most markets. They tend to focus on a few specific areas. I appreciate the comment.

What do you mean by higher rates will be locked into all outstanding by 2027? It’s a bold statement that buyers concerned about price should defer their decision until 2027 with no data or facts backing up that claim. Buyers should look at the data in the housing market and use that to make the best decision for their individual situation. Realtors are incentivized to earn more business by representing their clients needs. Any realtor who lies for a short term gain that puts their client in a bad position won’t last long in this industry

@@vermonteconomicrealtor *outstanding mortgages* Many mortgage holders haven’t yet felt the pinch of higher rates. Every outstanding mortgage holder who hasn’t yet renewed will be locked in to higher payments by 2027 unless there is a reduction to early 2022 rates beforehand. Spoiler, we are not going back to pre-pandemic rates. The Bank of Canada has signalled the steepest payment increases felt by mortgagees will be happening in 2026, where the median monthly payment will be increasing by 60% Look to RBC’s graph showing ownership costs as a % of median income. Affordability is at it’s lowest level since they began collecting data in the late 80’s. Others have found the same trend to show property is now more over valued than it’s been in all of Canadian history. Purchasing in Canada right now is as risky as it’s ever been. I agree that our supply issue is going to keep prices glued to the upper end of their feasible range, but lenders have already been drastically increasing loan loss provisioning for mortgages. If the big banks see it coming and are signalling to us what’s coming, you would be foolish to ignore these signals and dive into a purchase.

Ah I see, it sounds like you live in Canada? I really only focus on the US housing market on this channel. From what I understand, Canada could have some major housing issues in the near future because you don't have 30 year fixed rate mortgages. Canadian home owners get adjustable rate mortgages, correct? I'll defer to your judgement about the Canadian market. The US is more insulated because most homeowners have locked in rates under 5% for 30 years.

Good question. I think some markets will see price decreases. Particularly markets with high inventory. If there are more homes on the market than people who want to purchase those properties, prices will come down. I don't see this being the case for the US housing market as a whole. The COVID stimulus that has been yanked from most of the economy is still working it's way through the housing market, and likely will be a factor for the next 15-30 years. Many homeowners have locked into 3% mortgages for 30 year terms that they won't want to give up. Those home owners can take advantage of those rates for the foreseeable future and that's playing a big roll into why home prices aren't dropping.

@@vermonteconomicrealtor Thanks for the reply! That sounds logical given the average person spends around 14 years or so in their home. I'm hoping it's still a leveled market or better when I go to buy in 6-12 months.

Don’t sleep on right now too. Rates have come down a bit and some sellers are desperate. It could be more competitive 6 months from now. Tough to know for sure

Right, I completely agree. It is a good thing and shouldn't affect the market drastically. There definitely isn't a foreclosure crisis brewing. I appreciate the comment

@@vermonteconomicrealtor Thanks for the reply! :)

@@zacharyhenderson2902 you’re welcome!

Completely agree

Thank you Jefferson!

Couldn't agree more

Corporations were buying houses but are much less of the market share than people think. Look up my video about corporations purchasing real estate on this channel. I dive deep into the stats

Yes, I’m sure immigration has played a huge roll in the lack of housing. I haven’t seen any firm statistics about that though. Mega corporations account for 3% of home purchases nationally. Not enough to shift the market one way or another

The ratio between supply and demand is the largest factor. Demand has dropped and it isn’t affecting home prices because supply is still low

@@vermonteconomicrealtor that exactly what I kept on telling people. Don't expect massive price fall like post-2008 because supply ain't there to facilitate that. If people want to buy, pick the home price they can "comfortably" afford even at high interest. Don't go buy an expensive home expecting a lower interest rate in the near future to refinance.

@@Baebon6259 100% agree

Did supply drop in equal proportion to the demand drop? thus keeping the ratio between demand and supply the same or did just demand drop and supply stayed at its low level?

@@jsphsimons Supply is starting to increase, but is still extremely low from historical standards. Portions of the country, like Texas and Florida are seeing huge inventory spikes which is currently affecting home prices. The rest of the country is seeing small increases. Nationally speaking, US active homes for sale are still at historic lows. Excluding covid, national housing inventory is still lower than any point over the last 40 years. The ratio between homes for sale and buyers is starting to converge. That’s the month’s supply of inventory metric. Between 4-6 months supply is generally considered a balanced market. Under 4 months is a sellers market. Over 6 months is a buyers market. We’re currently at 3.6 months supply according to Redfin. This is much better than covid because demand has drastically decreased. Home buyer demand matters, but the ratio between buyers and available homes to buy is the most important factor. If supply dropped this year at the same rate as demand dropped, the market would be just as competitive as it was during covid. Things are shifting to more of a balanced market now, and that’s reflected in the months supply

Yes but RE has become a very popular investment vehicle over the last several years and if that unwinds that will crush housing.

Housing has never been more unaffordable. Who will be able to push the price up?

Housing won't go down because housing stimulus is locked in for 30 years. Most mortgage holders have low interest rates from a previously stimulated economy that's no longer available to new purchasers. The cost of everything has gone up. The principle and interest payment for the majority of home owners hasn't changed. That reduces distressed sales, lowers listings, and encourages people to stay in their home. It's housing stimulus that will be working its way through the housing market for the next 30 years.

@@vermonteconomicrealtor my 30y is 2.875%. You are right about that!

@@vermonteconomicrealtor But these rates will come down over time. Its a nice weapon for the fed for emergencies. They bought themselves a ton of clearance by getting the fed rate to 5%+ and a new environment may emerge that we didn’t quite see coming if all that happens. Thats how it always seems to go anyway.

Right, but housing demand is already extremely low. Is it really going to drop further as mortgage rates fall?

Yeah, there's too much new money in the system to cause home prices to crash in most areas. The media is powerful, but I don't think they can cause a housing crash. I appreciate the perspective.

Absolutely. Great points.

Terrible spelling. Thank you for pointing that out. That's an interesting point about the Florida market. I appreciate the comment.

@@newyorkminute6847 july…. Of last year? Dude its been inverted for over a year now!

I hear what you're saying. The economic health of the US is not in a good place. Probably more tax hikes in the future that will eventually lead to a failed capitalistic society. It feels like we're slowly moving towards socialism, which isn't good for anyone. I appreciate the comment.

Thank you! I appreciate the support

Did you watch this whole video? The comment has a lot of emotion but not a lot of facts and doesn’t touch on many points stated in the video. Investors are a small portion of the housing market. I have other videos on this channel going over the stats. The bottom isn’t going to fall out like in 2008. Too many people have 30 year fixed rate mortgages at a sub 5% rate. Their mortgage is extremely affordable and they’re going to do everything they can to keep that low monthly payment. That’s why homes are so expensive. People can’t afford these prices now that the fed took stimulus away. No one is buying and no one is selling. Now there will be some markets that experience downturns, like Florida and Texas, but the bottom won’t drop out from the entire nation. I suspect prices will remain flat nationally. Commercial is a different story. Commercial is in big trouble.

That's really interesting. We've seen home flipping almost completely die out up here in VT. The margins aren't there for flippers in my area right now. I hear you with people from metro areas pushing out the locals. The fact that you're still seeing most properties sell for well over list price makes me think your metro has a severe supply shortage. Is your town encouraging building to help stabilize prices now that there's increased demand? What part of upstate NY are you in? The only thing I'll push back on is landlords feeling the need to increase rents. One factor that most people don't consider with larger apartment complexes is that their interest rates also drastically increased. Commercial loans operate on 3-7 year fixed rate products with balloon payments due at the end of the term. Many apartment operators with mortgages are forced to refinance their debt with a higher rate that drastically increases their expenses, on top of increased taxes and insurance. Those costs are ultimately passed down to the tenant. Also, rent is most often dictated by demand. If tenants aren't willing to pay higher rents, landlords won't be able to increase rent. Increased supply could also help alleviate that problem. It's easy to point the finger at the landlord who increased rent. It feels good to make the landlord the enemy when rent is increasing. It's much less convenient to blame the local politician who is suppressing new building, or the federal government for implementing horrible monetary policies that inflated money away from those in need. I appreciate the comment.

@@vermonteconomicrealtor I am in Ulster County, NY. I’m about two hours north of Manhattan. We saw a surge of metro transplants post 9/11 and Covid. The only difference is the post Covid surge has not slowed. Our local cities and towns have largely approved the building of new habitational dwellings. Both single and multi unit projects. I’m watching swaths of “woods” disappear at a fast pace, replaced by small tract houses going for $450-500k. These are small three bedroom homes on postage stamp lots with two car driveways. Mind blowing, they do not sit empty for long. Some municipalities have also approved accessory dwelling units. As for the flippers, they are still going strong here. I’ll see a fixer upper hit the market and it’s gone within a day or two. I know it’s gone because I’ve been helping my young nephew and his wife look for a starter home. Inevitably that home hits the market in a month or two at a much higher price. I did not realize the individual landlord refi aspect but how does a one bedroom that once went for $1k now go for $1700 in just a couple years? The problem is, tenants don’t dictate what they will pay. The demand here is so high due to lack of supply that tenants have no choice. Honest question, why is there such a huge demand for housing in such a short period of time? I do not understand where this population explosion came from. And yes, I will fully disagree with the horrible federal and state governments monetary policies.

I appreciate the perspective. It sounds like you live in a really interesting market. Demand is still crazy, despite higher rates and demand generally cooling throughout the country. I agree with you that the rental prices have to do with a supply issue. We saw basically the same increase in rent charged at 1bd apartments in the Burlington area over the past 3 years. There could be a few reasons why demand remains so high in your county, but the reasons I'm about to give are more my theories as opposed to fact. Covid stimulus and the work from home craze is the first reason. I think climate is another. States like Florida appear to have much lower demand now compared to the past few years, which could be because of natural disasters, a warmer climate, and insanely high insurance costs. I believe Ulster County has a relatively moderate climate and is at low risk of major natural disasters, correct? I also think part of the demand increase is timing. Baby Boomers are downsizing from their large family homes and buying smaller, starter homes. They can often outbid Gen Z and Millennials trying to break into the housing market. We now have 3 large generations competing for similar properties. There's a good change the demand issue you're experiencing is also being driven by supply. There's a map that shows housing inventory data relative to 2019 numbers on the "Fast Company" website in an article titled "The Housing Market is Shifting - Here's Where It's Happening". They don't have Ulster County, but they do track a handful of counties in upstate NY that you can view. It appears inventory is between 40-70% below 2019 levels in your area. Demand could be at or below what it was in 2019, and the market will still be very competitive because there is much less inventory. The reason why inventory is so low is because 78% of mortgages are below 5%. Who wants to give up their 4.5% mortgage to purchase a more expensive property at 6.5%? The way I've been thinking about it is stimulus has stopped for the broader economy, but the pandemic stimulus will be working its way through the housing market for another 15-30 years while people have their low, fixed rate mortgages. Another reason for low supply could be that building was well below historic norms for the 15+/- years after the 2008 crash. Now builders are scrambling to catch up. The expensive and competitive home purchase market push would be home buyers into the rental pool, driving up rents. That's my quick assessment of what's going on in the Northeast. I appreciate the comment and discussion.

I appreciate the support!

Absolutely! I appreciate the support.

I think it's government incompetence. This is what happens when central planners manipulate markets.

That plan sounds good in theory, but it's tough to know how it will work in practice. The reason why these corporations invest in rental properties is because there is demand for rentals. Banning corporations from purchasing single family homes won't make that demand go away. I appreciate your perspective.