I would also say that you can't just take the percent and think that is people's actual preferences because parties like labour and the libdems tried to squeeze every seat out of the electoral map as possible, and would have done different campaigning in a different system

The alliance party is hope for the future, DUP and SF still mostly stuck fighting the old battles and clinging to the old symbols.

Interesting, you don’t sound like you’re from Scotland

Sinn Fein is a Republican party not a nationalist party.

The north of Ireland is not a nation. It is a part of Ireland that is occupied by the British empire. It is part of the Irish nation. In the next 10-20 years, the wrong will be corrected, democracy will be restored to Ireland - it was partitioned against the wishes of the Irish nation.

Nice presentation.

2nd

Can't believe in this purely political debate, some have brought it upon themselves to mention about looking apologies for British atrocities, as one who lived through the troubles, from a young child and witnessed the bombing, killing,even unborn children it didn't matter, the audacity to ask for an apology from unionist is appalling, most people where and are just trying to get on with their lives!!

The tri colour is sectarian and bigoted and divisive . It’s not only immensely ignorant but arrogant and fascist like to claim that green represents PURE Irish . And the orange the others .. This is a de fault failure of Irish politics the Vatican has successfully separated its flock and brainwashed them into actually believing because they belong to the Vatican they alone are Irish . It’s ironic when it was the papal crown and its unholy pagan empire that othered Ireland and the evangelical church of the ancient Irish that Patrick the British Christian brought to Ulster as a slave by the Scot’s from Ulster ….

Still waiting on our apology for our pain and violence against us

Nice Video!

wow the country is so divided now, thanks blair

Having applied for jobs in the civil service. The one thing that struck me was the exhaustive amount of DEI questions, as well as preferential hiring schemes. So they're most definitely trying to hire people based on what they perceive the applicants politics to be.

2:20 - you cannot add Reform vote to Conservative and conclude this is the only reason Labour won. Firstly, polls have shown that only about one-third of Reform voters would have voted Conservative had Reform not stood. Some people would have voted Labour instead or many would have not voted at all. Secondly, if we adding Reform to Conservative, then we would draw the same conclusion by adding Labour and Lib Dem which is a bigger figure, even disregarding the Greens.

On your point about the DUP being important for the conservatives that likely isn't going to be true this time as well the Tories ruined the unionists through brexit & the DUP has a lot of its problems to blame on Brexit (even if they are mainly responsible themselves for not working in a government but still the point stands that they wouldn't have been forced to do what they did had we stayed in the EU). I also really hate the fact that people let the Sein Fein people win they are a terrible vote for both British & Irish intrests. They don't sit meaning they can't argue against stupid ideas like Brexit related things that can strain Irish relations & all. Stupid Sein Fein I may be nationalist but I'll never vote for them SDLP is the way forward not any other parties that are nationalist. Also I kinda dislike all the unionist large parties but some DUP members are good people which is why I am glad Jim Shannon won in my area even if I didn't vote for him (If it was STV he'd have been like my 3rd option but we don't do that for general elections despite it leading to better people getting into power than just meaning no small parties have a chance to grow often.)

Jolly good

Violent criminal lefties

In hindsight, those were quite accurate, more accurate than a lot of pollsters said. The only things that were out of range were Reform (5), the Lib Dems (72) and the SNP (9)

vote share tends to go down when more parties are introduced and the last 12 months narative has been "please dont give labour a Majowity "

people complaining about PR were very very silent when it delivered tory majority after tory majority ALL below 50% vote share, and all corrupt t the teeth, as soon as the tories lose an el;ection, they and the media and the right wing party are all clammering for PR - i just dont buy it, they only want it so they can manipulate every future gov to be 15% more racist than it wouldve been

Reform UK for government 2029 or praying sooner

The MSM was crowing from the get go that Labour would definitely win. It is that imo that stopped people voting and I think it was a deliberate gaslight. They knew that if people thought they really had a choice they would be more likely to vote. But if they're told that one party is definitely taking it they won't bother for one of two reasons, either because they think that it doesn't matter because it's a fait a complis or because they have become totally disenfranchised. It showed me that it really doesn't matter if you vote because the result is already decided.

great video. First comment!!

Tactical voting has got the pollsters flummoxed!

That's if you believe that the polls treated Reform Party fairly.

the direction of travel is toward a new Ireland. Btw, the 6 counties of the 9 of Ulster is not a 'country' or as you said, 'a nation,' in the usual or normal way those terms are used. Even those in Britain see it as part of Ireland and as Irish.

What about tactical voting? You ignored it. I believe the Tories are going to be almost annihilated.

Good synopsis

Think the Tories and Labour are going to get less than you predict. Reform will get a lot more. There's a real buzz out there. Millions are voting Reform X.

I do wonder if we might see the Tories complaining about how they are under represented at this election (almost certainly true) and adopt a policy of voting reform to some variety of PR. Though I would suspect that any such support would mysteriously evaporate if they were ever to get back into government (just like Tony Blair's did in 1997). And in any case, it won't matter because Labour are unlikely to adjust a system that delivered them massive majority on around (probably) only 40% of the vote.

What's Wikepedia?

HOW you vote under First Past the Post [FPTP] is more or less irrelevant - it's WHERE you vote that really counts! The UK's incumbent voting system is not fit for purpose and (decades) past its sell-by date. Unless and until the UK ditches FPTP it cannot claim membership of the grown-up club of real European democracies. When the dust settles on this election result, I expect to see yet more examples of the grossly disproportionate influence of FPTP; • ReformUK winning a mere handful of seats with 17-18% of the votes cast Nationally whilst the LibDems (who have decades of experience and know exactly how to game the FPTP system) winning perhaps 60 - 70 seats on 12% or thereabouts. • Labour securing close to 70% of the new MP intake with perhaps just less than 40% support from the UK electorate • Conservatives suffering electoral annihilation because the right of centre voting bloc is split down the middle The UK needs to ditch FPTP and replace it with something half decent, such as Single Transferable Vote (used to elect councillors in Scotland and members of the Dáil Éireann). This change would bring so many democratic benefits for the UK: • ALL ballots cast would count in some way to the process of electing MPs • Results within each individual multi-member boundary would be proportional to the votes cast • All elected MPs would boast broad support across their respective constituencies • The electorate would be obliged to become much more engaged and informed (how else can you rank candidates - some from the same party, 1,2,3,4,5 etc, if you know NOTHING about them?) • Multi-member boundaries would encourage the emergence of more coherent localised political communities Lots of benefits, very few downsides - the main one being that it's more complicated to count so it takes a bit longer for the results to come out - so no election night special - what a shame!

Good basic explanatory analysis - subbed!

how many independence will win seats that is the question

01:36 22 + 7 = 29 =/= 39

I think you're right - I think the Tories won't do quite as badly as people think, but will still be humiliated. And yes - voting is the one day every 4-5 years when we have the power to truly influence politicians and policies.

No one knows about the swing from labour to reform

Tories are idiots. Reform are Neo-Nazis. SNP are wasting their time. Vote Labour.

Google conservatives Russian money .. how can they have the gall to propose national service when they were a contributing influence to causing the Ukraine war by taking bribes and causing BREXIT.

41 mins after the polls open I think: 🌹423 🌳138 🟧61 🎗️17 ➡️4 ☀️4 I’d love to be proven wrong 5:37

I am very curious how much of the slump of Reform in the polls will translate into the actual election. Given the current scandals they're facing, it may end up being a case of poll respondents simply hiding their intentions to vote for reform instead of truly being turned off from them, the classic phenomenon right wing populists have seen in polls in the past as shown with Brexit and the past 2 American elections.

Brilliant video. Please could you explain how the polls predict results for the new constituencies?

Political friction is in the eye of the beholder. The DUP create their own friction. Sinn Fein are relatively moderate. I am hoping that Unionists will finally ask Sinn Fein and the Irish people for forgiveness for imposing partition on Ireland against the democratic wishes of the people and causing so much violence and pain. I'm sure the BBC will continue to ask for apologies from Unionist candidates for various British atrocities during the troubles and will share how unnecessary Partition really was. Maybe a few headlines about how those apologies are still not forthcoming.

Referring to 'the six counties as a nation is so laughable.

Remaining hopeful that with some tactical voting and a DUP underperformance, Alliance can get 3 seats this time: keeping North Downs and grabbing Belfast East and Strangford, which is perhaps a bit of a push requiring a 7% swing, but in that seat there's no real viable competitor based on 2019 results. There's also Antrim East and Lagan Valley, which theoretically require a similar 7-8% swing and they were second last election, but there the UUP were just behind them and will probably overtake them if there's a DUP collapse.

It's ironic that there's now a Northern Irish Irish Conservative party considering that the full title of the Tory party is The Conservative and Unionist Party!

Cool video

One very important thing to explain why Sinn Fein do not take up and have never taken up Westminster Seats ,this situation has been since December 1918 when Sinn Fein won an overwhelming majority in the last All Island election a Parliament, Dail Eireann was set up in January 1919 and Sinn Fein never again recognised Westminster as a legitimate Parliament......this is the reason why .....the 43 Westminster seats promised by Home Rule Bill passed in 1914 never came to pass thus Southern Ireland 🇮🇪 went it's own way followed by the Anglo Irish War, The Treaty in 1921 ,independence inside Commonwealth followed by Civil War and Full Independence in 1949 .......Sinn Fein only began to hold seats in The Dail in the 1980s again...

The TUV only getting 1 seat isn't the fault of the voting system. Had they another voting system they would have none.

I suspect Sinn Fein won’t do as well as expected. Fermanagh South Tyrone will be close as Gildernew left to fight for an EU seat in the republic