The 2024 election in Northern Ireland

Follow me on X/Twitter: @ThePollPosition
Possibly the most unique of the four nations but often the least talked about in terms of elections
Sorry for the slightly more echoey audio
Sources used
BBC News
Sky News
The Guardian
The Belfast Telegraph
Lucid Talk
ElectionMapsUK
Ordinance Surveys Northern Ireland
Land and Property Services (NI)
Wikipedia (don't judge me)

[@edwardhoptrough9933]

Remaining hopeful that with some tactical voting and a DUP underperformance, Alliance can get 3 seats this time: keeping North Downs and grabbing Belfast East and Strangford, which is perhaps a bit of a push requiring a 7% swing, but in that seat there's no real viable competitor based on 2019 results. There's also Antrim East and Lagan Valley, which theoretically require a similar 7-8% swing and they were second last election, but there the UUP were just behind them and will probably overtake them if there's a DUP collapse.

[@xander1052]

Unfortunately only 1 Alliance seat again, but the DUP did take a big fall.

[@In-Christ-Alone]

Good to see alliance didn't gain

[@johncahalane7327]

One very important thing to explain why Sinn Fein do not take up and have never taken up Westminster Seats ,this situation has been since December 1918 when Sinn Fein won an overwhelming majority in the last All Island election a Parliament, Dail Eireann was set up in January 1919 and Sinn Fein never again recognised Westminster as a legitimate Parliament......this is the reason why .....the 43 Westminster seats promised by Home Rule Bill passed in 1914 never came to pass thus Southern Ireland 🇮🇪 went it's own way followed by the Anglo Irish War, The Treaty in 1921 ,independence inside Commonwealth followed by Civil War and Full Independence in 1949 .......Sinn Fein only began to hold seats in The Dail in the 1980s again...

[@sonnyirish3678]

Sinn Fein are traitors.Brits out Africans in.total frauds.

[@johndevoy5792]

the direction of travel is toward a new Ireland. Btw, the 6 counties of the 9 of Ulster is not a 'country' or as you said, 'a nation,' in the usual or normal way those terms are used. Even those in Britain see it as part of Ireland and as Irish.

[@conradgibson3860]

East Ulster independence

[@markmtni]

It’s ironic . As ulster been closer to Scotland than the aggressive south of Ireland . It’s ironic the most Anglo Norman aka english part of Ireland is the south . It’s also ironic that the first Anglo Normans to arrive in Ireland did so by invitation of Dermott king of Leinster to be his mecenary to kill the other Irish and rule the whole island … Its also ironic that this pro nationalist section being also Roman Catholic 1. Catholicism was imposed upon the Irish by conquest and oppression of the papal crown . 2 today it’s laughable as those who demand self government are ulster men as ever while the south is now ruled by the modern papal empire via foreign power of the EU . ROI is not self sufficient or self governing. Sad really

[@BennyandBoppy1690]

your of your rocker , and bitter....

[@johndevoy5792]

@@markmtni you, my dear friend, are on an entirely other planet. I suggest you climb out of your historical pit into the real world of 2024 and its direction of travel ...not pontificating on dubious ancient history.

[@conradgibson3860]

@@johndevoy5792 Ireland is part of the British isles

[@user-nq5zx1gr8i]

Still waiting on our apology for our pain and violence against us

[@michaelmccarthy9411]

It's ironic that there's now a Northern Irish Irish Conservative party considering that the full title of the Tory party is The Conservative and Unionist Party!

[@thepollposition]

It was actually the Liberal Unionist Party that gave the Tories their modern name as the two party's merged in the 1910's to oppose home rule in Ireland with the merger leading to the party we now know as The Conservative and Unionist Party

[@kbreslin7289]

The TUV only getting 1 seat isn't the fault of the voting system. Had they another voting system they would have none.

[@homolgus1]

If the TUV had their way Catholics would have no votes

[@anglodoomer5995]

Cool video

[@cormacmacdonncha1052]

Good synopsis

[@charlesjohn7492]

Referring to 'the six counties as a nation is so laughable.

[@BennyandBoppy1690]

referring to you as a person of good will is laughable...lololololol

[@charlesjohn7492]

@@BennyandBoppy1690 I can't think of anything more laughable than the suggestion that as I do not consider the six counties a nation I can't be considered a person of good will. Calling a nation that part of Ireland which still has not been recovered from those who stole it and colonised it, displays ill will..

[@joeduffy3309]

it's great to see the orange bit getting smaller and smaller every election, another 20 years they'll be nothing but a fringe party

[@VectorTracker]

And replaced with what?

[@robert6106]

Its roughly stayed the same this last 100 years with much of the seats marginal, I think your applying wishful thinking.

[@Lonbet]

Silly man

[@robert6106]

I would also add that the Orange bits is where most of Northern Ireland's population is.

[@joeduffy3309]

@@robert6106 They should get most of the votes then.

[@meiriongwril9696]

Hardly a nation!

[@Joseph13163]

No truer word said

[@conradgibson3860]

Neither is eire

[@Tcoc11]

Lagan Valley and Strangford will be interesting

[@thepollposition]

It's definitely more of a sleeper swing seat in that it may change hands but no one pays enough attention to it (ironically including myself). It's whether or not the allegations around Jeffrey Donaldson have a lasting effect as it is his seat and whether Alliance or the UUP win more votes off the DUP making it a lot harder to predict though I have a feeling that the DUP will just get by with a reduced majority

[@cillianennis9921]

On your point about the DUP being important for the conservatives that likely isn't going to be true this time as well the Tories ruined the unionists through brexit & the DUP has a lot of its problems to blame on Brexit (even if they are mainly responsible themselves for not working in a government but still the point stands that they wouldn't have been forced to do what they did had we stayed in the EU). I also really hate the fact that people let the Sein Fein people win they are a terrible vote for both British & Irish intrests. They don't sit meaning they can't argue against stupid ideas like Brexit related things that can strain Irish relations & all. Stupid Sein Fein I may be nationalist but I'll never vote for them SDLP is the way forward not any other parties that are nationalist. Also I kinda dislike all the unionist large parties but some DUP members are good people which is why I am glad Jim Shannon won in my area even if I didn't vote for him (If it was STV he'd have been like my 3rd option but we don't do that for general elections despite it leading to better people getting into power than just meaning no small parties have a chance to grow often.)

[@VectorTracker]

I suspect Sinn Fein won’t do as well as expected. Fermanagh South Tyrone will be close as Gildernew left to fight for an EU seat in the republic

[@zoso7889]

Wishful thinking Billy.

[@VectorTracker]

@@zoso7889 nothing i have said isn't accurate. What are your thoughts?

[@zoso7889]

@@VectorTracker Boundary changes mean Fermanagh South Tyrone, even with SDLP spoiler candidates, will not be as close. Boundary changes on the eastern side will add around 1,700 voters, the vast majority of which are nationalists. Blackwatertown will be absorbed from Newry and Armagh as well as the rest of areas like Moygashel, Mullaghmore and Ballygawley.

[@VectorTracker]

@@zoso7889 fair assessment. But I still believe SDLP will do better

[@VectorTracker]

@@zoso7889 having said that on the boundary change website it suggests that with 2019 numbers sinn feins percentage would go down from 43.3% to 42.5% voting share.

[@iano239]

Political friction is in the eye of the beholder. The DUP create their own friction. Sinn Fein are relatively moderate. I am hoping that Unionists will finally ask Sinn Fein and the Irish people for forgiveness for imposing partition on Ireland against the democratic wishes of the people and causing so much violence and pain. I'm sure the BBC will continue to ask for apologies from Unionist candidates for various British atrocities during the troubles and will share how unnecessary Partition really was. Maybe a few headlines about how those apologies are still not forthcoming.

[@joekavanagh7171]

Don't hold your breath. Unionists don't do apologies.

[@user-nq5zx1gr8i]

Your expecting an apology after what the ira put us through, bombing the heart out of the country and the killings, even unborn babies weren't safe, who should apologise to who?

[@user-nq5zx1gr8i]

The violence wasn't one way, what a short memory you have, I take it you got my last comment took down? Probably because I mention your little army and all the bombing and killing including unborn babies, who should apologise to whom??

[@robert6106]

North Down, South Belfast and North Belfast may elect Unionist this election but that depend greatly upon the Unionist electorate showing up at the polls. Sinn Fein has long maxed out it's native electorate and has nothing left to draw from other than the SDLP electorate. The SDLP are very much a L/Derry party and their electorate being moderate Nationalist voters and isolated Unionist voters. Alliance gain a lot of votes from isolated Nationalist voters and moderate Unionist voters, east Belfast being a prime example of the isolated Nationalist vote and the other why around in L/Derry. I think Alliance will loss it's seat in North Down and fall short in East Belfast. North Belfast may remain Sinn Fein if the Unionist vote is split with south Belfast having a split Nationalist/Republican/Alliance leading to a Unionist result. As for Fermanagh, flip a coin as it will depend on which way the wind is blowing. One last thing, no idea how Jeff Donaldson will effect this election but it may have a much greater effect or maybe have no effect at all, who knows?

[@plugsocket9432]

Robert; good analysis for predictions for NI election.

[@thepollposition]

It fascinates me that Alliance doesn't seem to have a strong vote west of the Bann which shows that they are struggling more with nationalist leaning voters. I agree with a lot of your analysis on the seats, there are a lot of tossups in this election but to me that's half the fun

[@robert6106]

@@thepollposition Alliance depends greatly upon the isolated Nationalist vote, West of the Bann they are not isolated and as such don't vote Alliance.

[@markbracegirdle7110]

As a Republican, I see little point in voting for a Sinn Fein MP. Loyalists deserve to have an MP who will represent them at Westminster.

[@seancurran6590]

Sure youre a Republican!​@markbracegirdle7110

[@markbracegirdle7110]

Why no mention of Reform UK? They're fielding a raft of candidates, on a joint ticket with the TUV.

[@ciaranfooty7720]

Because nobody will vote for TUV.

[@thepollposition]

It actually slipped under my radar that they had a deal. There has been so little coverage on the topic from the news however I still should have spotted that to begin with so I do apologise. Thank you for picking that up and I'll try to do better next time

[@markbracegirdle7110]

@@ciaranfooty7720 I agree, and it's quite a contrast. Nigel Farage knows how to work a crowd and has loads of dark money. Jim Allister is anything but charismatic and the TUV is permanently strapped for cash.

[@johncahalane7327]

@@markbracegirdle7110 Why would anyone in Northern Ireland recognise or ever vote for an English Nationalists party outside the TUV there are no links to Farage and his pirates ,no is the answer as Reform doesn't care about Ireland why ever would Irish voters care a jot about Nigel Farage... Monster Raving Loonies has more support in Northern Ireland..

[@patrickmccutcheon9361]

Yet Farage is supporting DUP candidates.

[@MitchMurray-my8qy]

The Republican/Nationalist vote hasn’t broken 40% yet despite all of the bickering within unionism. There will be no major changes in Northern Ireland until the union is under threat. It won’t happen for a long time. Both tribes have very ordinary leadership. At least Paisley and Adams had some charisma.

[@tomgreene1843]

They also had an ability to carry their followers I think .

[@bluechip297]

Nationalists have little interest in voting in Westminster elections.

[@shred_hand_of_ulster]

It did this year...