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@ZaidGraphic 14 күн бұрын
Robert Bro, you should improve your thumbnail so more people can engage with your video. Can I help you with that?
@robertmarsigliorealtor 14 күн бұрын
How would you change it?
@ZaidGraphic 14 күн бұрын
@robertmarsigliorealtor First of all, I will make it in a way that looks real because right now your thumbnail doesn't seem realistic. There are other things too, but I feel it's better to show rather than just explain. Can I redo this? If yes, where can I send it to you?
@robertmarsigliorealtor 14 күн бұрын
All of my contact info is in the video description. I'm always down to look over a free offer!
@ZaidGraphic 14 күн бұрын
@@robertmarsigliorealtor sure man i will redo it and send it to you i hope you like it
@CanadianRealEstateChannel 17 күн бұрын
Super interesting discussion!
@robertmarsigliorealtor 16 күн бұрын
Appreciate it!
@kylefordinvest 17 күн бұрын
Always great insights!
@robertmarsigliorealtor 16 күн бұрын
Thanks, Kyle!
@willyg3241 17 күн бұрын
Buyers aren't holding back, if you don't have large amounts of equity we just can't get approved for that much.
@robertmarsigliorealtor 17 күн бұрын
Even with the down payment assistance from the feds, those monthly payments are steep. It's a huge mortgage to qualify for, and I can't blame people who don't want to take that on
@edamameme1789 17 күн бұрын
The buildup in inventory is in condos only, and its limited to 2025-2026. Prices will spike afterwards due to going from 40000 new units in 2025 to 5000 in 2027 and 0 in 2028. Houses are currently going up in price as "new inventory" is few to none (already). Basically what condos will do in 2027-2028, houses are doing now. The reason prices are "sticky" or going up is because the dollar is getting devalued and going down. A dollar back in 2019 is worth more than the current 2024 dollar, by about 40% (Trudeau printed 40% more currency during the pandemic and destroyed the value that was there before). We're heading towards $20 bread and $1 mil 1 bedroom condos, not because those values are going up, but because the dollar is becoming more and more worthless, Venezuela style. At the rate things are going all Canadians will become billionaires in a few short years.
@kanantony4423 17 күн бұрын
Lmao. And who's going to buy the million dollar condos?😂
@heyyou2104 17 күн бұрын
Why would an aging asset that is technically slowly falling apart keep going up in price? This is just nutts. I for one will not be paying millions and being house poor for the rest of my life. No thanks.
@dansolo360 17 күн бұрын
Same. I don’t want to wake up in the morning paying interest on a $900k to TD Bank.
@edamameme1789 17 күн бұрын
population density (immigration) and devaluing / worthlessness of the dollar ($1 in 1990 is worth $10 today in 2024) houses, gold, etc all have the same value they did back then. The "dollar" you're trying to buy them with, is more worthless.
@Hoser584 17 күн бұрын
What you're not a sheep...
@Hoser584 17 күн бұрын
Doesn't this smooth talker make you want to run out and buy something you could never afford?
@diyfinanceguy 18 күн бұрын
The resilience of prices is quite remarkable, given the inventory accumulation all year
@robertmarsigliorealtor 18 күн бұрын
That real sticky icky, but in a professional real estate way!
@jeffotoole4509 18 күн бұрын
Patience. Patience.
@diyfinanceguy 18 күн бұрын
@@jeffotoole4509 It’ll be interesting to watch, considering all the stimulative demand measures rolling out in December and January and the steady growth in wages. Let’s see! 👍🏻 In any case, I'm just glad we’ve got Rob delivering some objective coverage. 😉
@anthonym9130 17 күн бұрын
Real estate is not like the stock market it was about 5 years after 2008 before prices bottomed keep in mind a lot of these people are still locked in too low interest rates
@arjunsahgal2439 16 күн бұрын
High prices are the result of inflation and currency collapse
@ank337 24 күн бұрын
Very honest and great video !we need more agents like yourself !
@robertmarsigliorealtor 23 күн бұрын
Thank you for the comment!
@pablosubak8567 29 күн бұрын
Good video
@robertmarsigliorealtor 29 күн бұрын
Thank you! Glad you enjoyed it!
@lostlandmarks8305 Ай бұрын
Time for a lost decade or two.
@robertmarsigliorealtor 29 күн бұрын
House prices need to pump the brakes if people want home ownership to be realistic in the GTA in the future.
@diyfinanceguy Ай бұрын
I'm curious if FTHB's demand(supported by 30-year AMs)for resale condos in 2025 brings a floor to prices. Great video, Rob!
@robertmarsigliorealtor Ай бұрын
@@diyfinanceguy I think that might be a market to shop for a deal in 2025. Busy assignment market/potential investor offloading continues? What do you think?
@robertmarsigliorealtor Ай бұрын
Do you think that new mortgage rules will make things easier for the marginal GTA home buyer?
@lunisan Ай бұрын
Great video! The increased cap to insured mortgages will have little effect on the market. Just consider the income required to afford a property with an LTV of 80% or higher on a home purchased from 1 to 1.5 million bucks
@lunisan Ай бұрын
It only helps verrrry high income earners
@robertmarsigliorealtor Ай бұрын
My thoughts exactly. It's helping people that are already very well capitalized, not the marginal home buyer.
@quixomega Ай бұрын
I think the current valuations are so stupid that the only people buying right now are those being forced to by their circumstances.
@robertmarsigliorealtor Ай бұрын
I don't think people are ever forced to buy. Renting is always an option. In my experience, recent buyers are people who have built out a budget that they are comfortable with, and they're very confident in their job security. There are no guarantees in life, but some are still making the decision to purchase.
@winchangkou Ай бұрын
The whole large chuck of Ice mass called Canada is shitsville
@robertmarsigliorealtor Ай бұрын
Ouch
@timjkinney3472 Ай бұрын
What I see as The Sweet spot for purchasing (to find as the least insane stupid pricing for what you get) - semi-detached with three bedrooms main floor and a layout in the lower level that allows for two bedrooms - area of the city where we plan to buy two-bedroom condo is $650/700 + $800 monthlycondofee - townhouse 900+ - semi 900-950+ - decent bungalow 1-1.1mill For us a critical Factor for at least the first 3 to 5 years is to attract rents to help us with carrying costs - min Three bedrooms on the main floor - most of the homes we see have decent kitchen and bathroom in the lower level - usually only one bedroom so we are limited to considering the properties that lend themselves to 2/3 bedroom in the lower - it's rare properties that will accommodate this living plan without looking like a bloody roaming house
@Kevriyal5654 Ай бұрын
The property ladder is very hard to climb in the gta as you need immense appreciation. If you are going from an attached property to a detached. It will cost you atleast an approx $50-70k in transaction fees and land transfer tax. Your property needs to appreciate by this much to break even. In the first few years, not much principle is paid off the mortgage.
@robertmarsigliorealtor Ай бұрын
Well said. It comes down to how much someone can afford to tack on to their budget and whether or not the gap to the step up is too big. Thanks for the comment!
@timothyirwin8974 Ай бұрын
Compare this graph to a graph 1980's to 1990's. Possibly the same shape except housing cost ratio to yearly income was about 3:1. History does not repeat but it can rhyme.
@robertmarsigliorealtor Ай бұрын
Thanks for the comment, Tim. Are you thinking prices level off once we get back to that 3:1 ratio? Seems extreme to me but would love to hear if that's what you mean
@RaySmith79 Ай бұрын
Sound like the new Flordia north.
@robertmarsigliorealtor Ай бұрын
Climate change is making it feel like Florida more often than it used to as well!
@surprisek3918 Ай бұрын
People: DO NOT buy now. Are you insane? The economy is on the verge of collapsing; I don't understand how people don't see this. Where are prices going to go? Up? Really? How exactly? People are being laid off left and right. Ask anyone with a small business and they will tell you all sales are down big time.
@robertmarsigliorealtor Ай бұрын
There is definitely turmoil on the horizon. Thanks for the comment!
@jmela1370 Ай бұрын
No doubt! Job security is key. Why make the biggest purchase of your life when companies are starting to cut jobs everywhere in the economy Also mortgage renewals will cause some Canadians to spend less. Higher taxes in 2025 for CPP2 and carbon taxes will cut disposable income. As people spend less in 2025/26, more businesses will probably cut jobs. It’s a vicious chain reaction but why take risk with huge debt in rough times? Nobody has a crystal ball, but the danger is all around us Dropping rates is a game of musical chairs especially while QT is occurring and long term (3-30 year) bond yields aren’t dropping while real rates drop The 4.2% 5 year fixed mortgages in Sept were a good deal. We might see cheaper in spring but I doubt it’ll be less than 3.75% unless BoC does QE which will be very risky for Canada’s future Time will tell
@Mark-hu9tf Ай бұрын
Only you are forgetting that we have an election around the corner and demand is at an all time high with a constrained supply so prices aren't dropping any time soon.
@jmela1370 Ай бұрын
@@Mark-hu9tf immigration is slowing down Colleges are cutting jobs from lack of enrollment from international students Rent is decreasing Big corporations are cutting jobs Brain drain is occurring from STEM fields as income potential is greater in the US and housing affordability is half the cost Time will tell
@SamTorontoRealEstate Ай бұрын
Good to see u back Robert
@hill4377 Ай бұрын
If you are renting a condo. Pick a building and hold an auction. Lowest bid wins. Do it on the end of the month. Also, part of the deal, the landlord must prove Financials and mortgage of all residence. As well proof of income. Do not rent off anyone unless they provide this.
@GreenBeanGreenBean Ай бұрын
how's your trailerpark under the bridge? nobody cares what you have to say.... as your advice is 100% wrong. Anyone doing what you said would be #22 on a list of renters and wouldn''t get a call back and they would be joining you under the bridge soon enough.
@robertmarsigliorealtor Ай бұрын
Love it. The reverse bidding war. Just make sure the offers are verbal so that you aren't bound to 15 different leases
@fofal Ай бұрын
2025 is when the fake low maintenance fees implode on them lol
@robertmarsigliorealtor Ай бұрын
It's more important right now than ever to really scrutinize condo docs when purchasing
@privatenumber2299 Ай бұрын
🎯 Already-newly-built condos to flood new year + drastically reduced immigration/international student forecasts + rent fees to get reduced + massive mortgage (interest rates are still incredibly high compared to the pre-covid 1% when investors, likely 50+% of them are realtors themselves, jumped in, fueling buyer competitions by all means) renewals new year + investors (70% of market) to dump their rental properties + massive emigrations to USA to speed up + Trump tariffs means inflations and interest rates to hike + industrial investment exodus means C$ to be further weakened + unemployment rates to hike + recessions to deepen towards depression = real estate market to CRASH in short, mid and long-term. Anyone who buys will always lose. Cash is the king.
@robertmarsigliorealtor Ай бұрын
Lots of supply pressure incoming
@CanadianRealEstateChannel Ай бұрын
Interesting to see Toronto condos defy seasonal trends!
@robertmarsigliorealtor Ай бұрын
Coming off of the weakest stretch in history, it was going to happen at some point. I'm interested to see how long it's sustainable for.
@kylefordinvest Ай бұрын
Insightful analysis on offer nights-it's great to see data-driven perspectives for both buyers and sellers in the GTA market!
@robertmarsigliorealtor Ай бұрын
Appreciate the comment, Kyle. What are you seeing in the market right now?
@Carolinapetroska 2 ай бұрын
How about the only 3% of condos selling ??? Lol
@robertmarsigliorealtor 2 ай бұрын
Are you talking new build stuff?
@Carolinapetroska 2 ай бұрын
@@robertmarsigliorealtor Yes and condos in general also.
@mfmcintyre 2 ай бұрын
Don't simply retire from something; have something to retire to. Start saving, keep saving, and stick to investments.
@nandojuace 2 ай бұрын
It’s really heartbreaking to see how inflation and recession impact low-income families. The cost of living keeps rising, and many struggle just to meet basic needs, let alone save or invest. It’s a reminder of the importance of finding ways to create financial opportunities. You've helped me a lot sir Brian! Imagine i invested $50,000 and received $190,500 after 14 days
@LolMan-qy9cc 2 ай бұрын
Absolutely! Profits are possible, especially now, but complex transactions should be handled by experienced market professionals.
@KaylaAnn11896 2 ай бұрын
Some persons think inves'tin is all about buying stocks; I think going into the stock market without a good experience is a big risk, that's why I'm lucky to have seen someone like mr Brian C Nelson.
@grizbaseball 2 ай бұрын
Finding yourself a good broker is as same as finding a good wife, which you go less stress, you get just enough with so much little effort at things
@alasdekarton 2 ай бұрын
I'm surprised that you just mentioned and recommend Mr Brian Nelson. I met him at a conference in 2018 and we have been working together ever since.
@TestTest-l4d 2 ай бұрын
Hi Robert, excellent data! Thanks for sharing, could you also cover outskirts of GTA market as well? Like Guelph, waterloo, Cambridge etc please ??
@robertmarsigliorealtor Ай бұрын
Thanks for the comment. The best I could do is a monthly look at what's going on. I don't have access to that board's MLS to do things as in depth
@noname2031-w5r 2 ай бұрын
imagine falling for a 1million dollar mortgage trap !!!! people going to find out again ! :D
@kylefordinvest 3 ай бұрын
Great analysis-always interesting to see how rate cuts affect the GTA market!
@DmitriiSokolovMD 3 ай бұрын
I guess many buyers would wait for more rate cuts before returning to the market. Especially because Fed recently cut 50 base points, meaning Canada has more room for cuts.
@Nasrumashik 3 ай бұрын
People still won't buy. Can't afford.
@nathanwhitneymusic 3 ай бұрын
Another logical, evidence based video. Thanks Rob!
@robertmarsigliorealtor 3 ай бұрын
Appreciate that, Nathan! But don't dodge the question. Do we end up over or under 65,000 reported sales?
@nathanwhitneymusic 3 ай бұрын
@@robertmarsigliorealtor you know when you assume….. so I say under.
@dirtlump 3 ай бұрын
Same as any 'market'.... Sales will return as soon as 'affordability' returns stimulative to price discovery/demand..... which in my view only, a significasnt degree of Seller 'normalcy bias' exists regarding past valuations as relevant... which they are NOT.... and will result in a eventual cascading deflation effect as listings continue to elevate ..... UNLESS... realtors now engage in that 'conversation' asap with clients prior to listing ! I mean whats the worst can happen.... less 'listings' if clients don't like the valuation forecast ? better than NO velocity of Sales/money/income under rising Listings at untenable prices to realization ?
@robertmarsigliorealtor 3 ай бұрын
So do you like over or under 65,000 sales this year?
@smitpatel9288 3 ай бұрын
I am first time buyer and I have genuine question. Canada had reduced mortgage rate in the past. What is so different this time that people are discussing recession ?
@robertmarsigliorealtor 3 ай бұрын
When rates have come down in the past, it's always been to stimulate the economy. It may not have been full blown recession in the past, but definitely times of economic strife. This time around, there are more signs pointing to an imminent recession, that is if we aren't in one already. A lot of our key economic indicators have been propped up by massive amounts of immigration, a formula that is proving to have many downfalls.
@browngroupinc 3 ай бұрын
get ready for your next fomo market wont effect pricing much worse then where it stands now real estate agents need work asap
@Wolfpack1298--3 3 ай бұрын
The economy shows weakness, Canada needs housing to bring growth. In the last week or so, they are adding measures to improve the market. Wait to see the housing kicks up
@robertmarsigliorealtor 3 ай бұрын
All of these changes will have some lag before we see effects. I'm not sure that the underlying numbers lend themselves too well to the market really kicking off any time soon, though.
@Stom-Troop 3 ай бұрын
I'm tired of signs of life, like series of rates cuts were supposed to trigger life revital to the market, but didn't happen. Maybe it's high time we admit tougher times are ahead and Turdeau fucked up, and prepare for worst instead of keep propping up the market like theres no tomorrowz.
@jeffotoole4509 3 ай бұрын
The powers that be have made huge changes in the past few weeks. Why? Why would they make these changes right now? The words panic, screwed and collapse come to mind.
@robertmarsigliorealtor 3 ай бұрын
Yeah, it strikes me as panicky.
@dirtlump 3 ай бұрын
In my view the OSFI stress test changes are a nothing burger, and GTA valuations are now inevitably still headed lower from here into recession.
@peej91 3 ай бұрын
People please be smarter. Whole point is to get out of debt, not bury yourself more into it. 1.5 million? Get outta here
@robertmarsigliorealtor 3 ай бұрын
That's a lot of debt to take on.
@MR007-r3f 3 ай бұрын
Three generations will now pay the same mortgage. 👏 👏👏
@robertmarsigliorealtor 3 ай бұрын
"You get a mortgage, you get a mortgage, you get a mortgage!" *in the Oprah voice*
@quixomega 3 ай бұрын
So desperate they're doing things that will increase housing prices? No matter what Trudeau does he can't stop pumping housing prices.
@robertmarsigliorealtor 3 ай бұрын
House prices Tru-da moon! (Probably his campaign slogan)
@DmitriiSokolovMD 3 ай бұрын
I’d prefer to pay more money in long run but move in my own house earlier from rented, because I can invest in better appliance or do some renovation (especially bathroom). In this case I will not have to use 10 years old appliance, mold bathroom and fix wholes in old windows by myself. Whatever houses available snd affordable for rent in GTA are not for people and landlords have no incentive to improve them.
@DmitriiSokolovMD 3 ай бұрын
Nice graphs!
@robertmarsigliorealtor 3 ай бұрын
Thanks, Dmitri!
@robertrankin7805 3 ай бұрын
Good job! Would you consider bringing in guests from more far-flung regions to talk stats in their area?
@robertmarsigliorealtor 3 ай бұрын
Appreciate the comment, Rob! Where are you thinking?
@dinagallis2664 3 ай бұрын
Could this be for foreign buyers to buy up homes with min down as there have been “some” rules set in place in their country that they can’t take out as much coin as they once could? Hmmmm🤔.. without money laundering this won’t work IMO
@upsyndrome 3 ай бұрын
Foreigners will put multiple people on title though. Seen mom dad and 3 children all working age going onto property's. In the years past at least.
@jessefaw 3 ай бұрын
If they drop rates too much, might get inflation then the whole shooting match is over!
@KrikitKaos 3 ай бұрын
I don't want rate cuts. I want rates to go back up and prices to come down.
@JJDean976 3 ай бұрын
2.25% target is crazy