We haven't seen a GTA spring real estate market like this in over a decade | GTA Real Estate 2024

GTA home buyers are doing something they haven't done with sellers in years: refusing to cave to their demands. For the first time in forever, it feels like the tides are starting to turn in favour of GTA home buyers when it comes to negotiating a home purchase. And the numbers are backing that up.
In this video, I'll walk you through why I think walking away from negotiations is a great strategy in this real estate market. We will take a look at GTA home sales activity, real estate showing activity, and spring home price increases.
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We haven't seen a GTA spring real estate market like this in a decade | GTA Real Estate 2024

[@John-bq9jh]

Wouldn’t rates be dropped because the economy is slowing down with job losses. Wouldn’t give me much confidence especially if I lost my job. Looks a little like the 70’s. stagflation.

[@robertmarsigliorealtor]

Exactly, John. I think that's the piece that people are missing: 1. Rate cuts won't improve affordability. 2. Significant rate cuts will only happen as a result of a big stressor. Thanks for the comment!

[@davidkania3720]

It's good if your a top elevator mechanic troubleshooter. I have job security and I'm just waiting for the dip. I'll probably jump in at the end of the year.

[@robertmarsigliorealtor]

I've heard that the elevator business is always up and down... 😏

[@davidhughes6048]

Achievement unlocked: Dad Joke.

[@JerryFacts790]

When you work on something that only has the capacity to make you 5 dollars, it does not matter how much harder you work - the most you will make is 5 dollars.

[@ThickMommy]

Very possible! especially at this moment. Profits can be made in many different ways, but such intricate transactions should only be handled by seasoned market professionals.

[@Grace-uj6ey]

Having an investment advisor is the best way to go about the stock market right now. I was going solo, but it wasn't working. I've been in touch with an advisor for a while now, and just last year, I made over 80% capital growth minus dividends.

[@DaveMorris894]

Finding yourself a good broker is as same as finding a good wife, which you go less stress, you get just enough with so much little effort at things

[@ChristineMeier963]

Brian demonstrates an excellent understanding of market trends, making well informed decisions that leads to consistent profit

[@DavidFinley812]

I'm surprised that you just mentioned and recommend Mr Brian Nelson. I met him at a conference in 2018 and we have been working together ever since.

[@theresasmith1]

Many are moving here to Alberta . Buying homes unseen and accepting prices posted

[@robertmarsigliorealtor]

Sorry for all of the Ontarians that you will have to deal with! 😂

[@theresasmith1]

@@robertmarsigliorealtor I'm from Ottawa lol .I've been out here a decade

[@robertmarsigliorealtor]

@@theresasmith1 The appropriate apology would be for any Torontonians you have to deal with then! :)

[@Lifer996]

Do you have any data on GTA condo completions? I just read that only about half of low-intetest, fixed-rate mortgages have reset to current rates. Could be volatile. Any thoughts on how these forces will affect the market? Good video.

[@robertmarsigliorealtor]

I don't have anything on condo completions, but Jordon Scrinko might. As for renewals, we have until 2027 before everybody that bought/refinanced at ultralow rates has to refinance or renew again. I think that downward price movement up until then is the most likely scenario. It's hard to say how much/quickly prices will drop, but there is much more support for prices falling than prices rising. Those are just my thoughts and not a guarantee or advice though! Thanks for the comment.

[@izylord]

what's the story on that huge jump in March on showings/listing? Dropped nearly 50% in 2 weeks!

[@robertmarsigliorealtor]

Had to do with new listings being way down that week! Just a quick spike before the downward trend continued. Thanks for the comment!

[@diyfinanceguy]

The markets are volatile, and forecasting rates or prices is tough sledding. I am interested to see what direction fixed rates take in the second half of the year. Thanks for the insights, Rob!

[@robertmarsigliorealtor]

I'm with you. Fixed rate movement will have a bigger impact on what happens with the market going forward.

[@stephenfermoyle4578]

gee.... thanks so much for telling us what we already know

[@robertmarsigliorealtor]

My pleasure! Thanks for the comment!

[@davidkania3720]

You the best rob ! You should collaborate with market mania to gain followers or even John. I like your neutral approach to the market. Honestly is the best policy

[@robertmarsigliorealtor]

Appreciate the comment, David. I'll get my people to reach out to their people 😂

[@Kadmos]

The 2023 reaction to the rate pause I think is very telling of how fast sentiment will change once the cuts start. Theoretically 0.25-1.00bp cut shouldn't do anything like you said since variable remains high, but this is Canada. I fully expect bond yields to drop on expectations of further cuts, and sidelined buyers to go into a frenzy again due to deflated prices this year.

[@robertmarsigliorealtor]

What's the timeline that you figure this plays out over?

[@Kadmos]

@@robertmarsigliorealtor September/October/December 0.25bp cuts each. September-October will be busy fall market. Quiet down again November-January. Reignited Spring market next year.

[@jamesimcb]

I don't have a crystal ball but we heard the media and RE agents claiming rate cuts were going to happen this spring and ignite the market. Instead the opposite happened. Your data is what experts were predicting last month. Reality has shifted dramatically since (based on U.S. data). If experts are right they are now predicting 1.00bp won't happen until December 2025! If you look at bond yields they are back to November 2023 levels which has resulted in mortgage rates increasing. If experts are right, the market will stagnate and possibly even decline. Canadians (and the Canadian government I might add) are up to their eyeballs in debt. So many variables (including immigration policy changes) will affect the direction of prices. Let's stop using the word frenzy to drive FOMO. The market could just as easily go in the opposite direction.

[@robertdimanno7518]

You are the fucking man! Said like a true professional.

[@robertmarsigliorealtor]

Appreciate that, Robert!

[@dinoa.17]

Toronto Vancouver house prices ll go down %85 imminent

[@7966016]

Great insight and advice!

[@robertmarsigliorealtor]

Much appreciated! Have a great weekend!

[@stevebond4916]

On Maui, home inventory is still low.

[@robertmarsigliorealtor]

I'm waiting for my invite to come see some of that inventory!

[@X-Prime123]

Good, time to clean house! These prices are complete fantasy.

[@robertmarsigliorealtor]

They've been detached from reality for a while. Higher rates are really shining a light on that issue.

[@dirtlump]

NOT looking good for GTA Real Estate valuations nor anyone overleveraged therein ? My best guess is any BoC rate cut(s) may be completely moot in stimulative effect if U.S. Economic data remains strong..... very simply because of the high probability therein for resurgent cpi inflation as the Loonie drops under any deviation from US Fed Policy. Regardless..... and IMO, BoC rates probably can not drop sufficiently to alleviate significant consumer spending reallocation of income away from GDP into very difficult Mortgage renewal fundamentals for still ~750,000 households(~40% NEGAMS) presenting now thru 2026. Almost a perfect storm of recession/demand destruction and a very painful deleveraging cycle..... and NOT a damn thing Mr Poilievre can do about it ?

[@robertmarsigliorealtor]

Thanks for the comment, Bob. What do you think about the US GDP miss? Are there cracks starting to show in the data?

[@dirtlump]

​@@robertmarsigliorealtor One data point does not a trend make ? That said.... with the US Election cycle rapidly approaching time is running out for the Fed to cut significantly if data is rolling over..... and allow the BoC latitude to cut without deviating more than 50 Bps (where the worst loonie damage would occur.) from the Fed rate .... prior to a US Fed election rate impartiality freeze ? I am not optimistic more than maybe 2 x 25 Bps this year ? and even that is dwindling. I knew April would exacerbate Fixed Rates given the unprecedented Bond auctions..... and now with Canadian Gov't buying $30 Billion in MBS's.... just NOT looking good for the Loonie into inflation for BoC cuts either. Never seen such a mess anywhere one looks ?

[@audittheauditors]

People will opt for variable mortgages and will assume further rate cuts will be made down the line albeit smaller over longer. I think buyers will falsely believe its the bottom of prices and surge into the market driving prices up but not near march 2022 prices.

[@robertmarsigliorealtor]

When do you think this will happen? When rates are cut? Thanks for the comment!

[@robertmarsigliorealtor]

Thanks, Bob.

[@QuestRader]

anyone want ice cream?

[@robertmarsigliorealtor]

I'm in. Who is buying?

[@Juba24-mx4ni]

Sellers market will last until fall in eastern US. Western regions will see sellers market last until mid summer. Buyers will have to wait little longer to have the upper hand…September-October 24🥸🥸✍️

[@robertmarsigliorealtor]

Not a lot of motivation for homeowners to give up those low 30 year rates from what I'm hearing