Crash bros crying and changing their formats all over KZbin now is a tacit admission they were wrong about literally everything and are throwing in the towel on "the narrative". Good riddance. Thankfully we still have Jason's even keeled, unbiased data presentations and analysis.

The American dream of owning a home is more of an emotional decision than logical at this point Realtors/lenders love using that emotion as leverage to get you into a situation that likely isn't good for your financial health. It's pretty transparent, and insulting

I live in “a hot market” that I’ve been watching since 2019. I can 100% tell you home prices have not gone up in this hot market. This month the entry level homes have actually been seeing more and more cuts and still very few are selling. The luxury market however are having significant cuts and are seeing a lot more sales overall after major cuts. But yet redfin still brags that prices are up here every month.

Big crash coming to a town near you soon 😮

Just don't buy it.

Prices continue to climb in my part of FL even though there's more inventory and longer sell times. Oh well...

Top 10 states with the highest projected average home price by 2030. 1. California $1,048,100 2. Hawaii $889,627 3. Washington $782,708 4. Colorado $763,309 5. Utah $672,847 6. Nevada $652,526 7. Oregon $631,143 8. Idaho $628,110 9. Massachusetts $626,935 10. Arizona $557,853 -Yahoo Finance

Makes no sense, price up, interest rates up and sales are up. People must love paying more for homes.

Good morning Jason, hope you had a great Thanksgiving. Pretty clear to see the effect rates are having on the market. It will be interesting to see what happens going forward as inflation is officially accelerating again as of the most recent pce report and that will likely cause Treasury yields to rise and probably mortgage rates along with it.

Mahalo still patiently waiting for the dip that’s coming good morning 🤙🏽🤙🏽🇺🇸🍍

Hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving. ❤

Nets get nerdy

Happy Friday, Jason here’s one for the #Algorithm😊

This is great! Buyers you are winning! Stay patient save your money, pay off debt, and be smart about buying your home when the time comes.

The voters scrapped government subsidies for new home builds when they voted for Trump.

IMO the reason homes prices are declining is bc realtors need to make sales

I’m hearing that lumber supply is decreasing bc of a chain of events with interest rates, thus not harvesting as many trees causing closures of Mills . It just hasn’t caught up yet . Lumber futures are 500 per 1000 which needs to be 6-650/1000 Lumber is your best forward looking market.

Interested to see if the market rebounds a little bit this month or if the hurricanes were enough to scare away a lot of prospective buyers

Amen

Great report Jason. It just seems like builders will quickly react to whatever is going on, and put the brakes on future projects, or get going if things look better. This isn't 2009 anymore.

#HappyThanksgivingJason🦃🍗

#1 😊 #RealEstateIsLocal #LetsGetNerdy

ITS THE PRICE- NOT NOT NOT THE RATES

THE PRICE IS THE PROBLEM

Jason I noticed you mentioned on a previous video that the majority or recent refi’s, were people looking to cash out. In the late 2000’s I know a lot of people that did the same and walked away from their houses in 2010. They ended up purchasing something newer or bigger down the road, through a relative, and kept all of their money. I wonder if we’re near a down fall? Why would anyone refinance with the current rates.

Thank you. Happy Thanksgiving.

And sellers in Phoenix are raising their prices, they will learn the hard way that buyers have had enough of the inflated prices.

And prices continue to rise 🥱

Zillow hasn’t successfully predicted anything housing related so why would anyone start buying their BS predictions now. The only trend that is obvious to anyone who’s looked at a home on Zillow is that price decreases are on the rise which should lead anyone with half a brain to conclude that prices are declining.

Jason your analysis doesn't reflect how new home sales work. Go to the last page of the census report showing the not seasonally adjusted numbers. If you look at the number of homes COMPLTED for sale you'll see 116k which is 2.6 months of supply. This is the inventory that builders currently have at risk and as you mentioned this is a low number and they clearly have the upper hand. One simply needs to walk into any model home and see they aren't trying to negotiate. 107k are home not even started, so these are dirt lots that they are willing to sell. Then you have 269k UNDER CONCSTRUCTION. This number is actually DOWN. Most of these homes wont be completed for another year or so. These are usually the remaining lots in a subdivision after they've already sold bulk of homes and don't want to keep up of the overhead of sales people/model homes. Notice if the "completed" unsold homes start to rise then the "not started" homes rise as well. So as soon as actual inventory starts to rise they simply cut off production, thereby limiting supply. So sure if you look at chart of new homes completed it is higher than in the past. However this misses the context that currently it's very hard to buy an existing home. New homebuilders have record profits and can buy down the rate on a house that is newer than whats available elsewhere. The builders are taking advantage of this. You can look up the major homebuilders and download their financial reports. They are crushing it while you are implying that they somehow have a glut of unsold homes which simply isn't the case. Also the mix of homes sold is show in the report and it is roughly the same and therefore the median price increase isn't due to selling more high end homes and prices are in fact going up.

Nice update, happy Thanksgiving Jason. Current trend not surprising, housing price due for a correction, just cannot keep going up after a huge blow up 😢

Mahalo😊🦃 day

Was about to get a home loan but seeing lenders raising the interest rate quickly made me reconsider

🏡

Appreciate the updates! Election should be a factor. Do you service Davis area?

Most of the Florida big bend area has a low population..

I don't always agree with your analysis, but you have some of the best data and presentation skills on yt

So I expect that new home construction is going to be reduced from increased tariff on supply’s and reduced workforce due to deportation. I would predict that foreclosures will increase.

Happy Thanksgiving Everyone! 🦃 hope you all have a fantastic day

2030: six homes sold in the USA for an average price of 2.9 million dollars.

So it’s even better to buy a rental or primary house! Let’s go!

Apply for a mortgage loan here (refinance or home purchase in select US states - please inquire at [email protected]) revesthomes.my1003app.com/2566691/register Or, schedule a free consultation with Jim Black and Jason Walter here: calendly.com/d/cmmc-xv2-xx9/jason-and-jim-real-estate-review

Even in light of near record low sales…the house price index will continue to rise, especially with lower end homes being averaged out. Guess what, the same will be true for wage growth! As we layoff and factor out lower incomes, the average goes up. You have to look at data in context. Edit: the gov would have you believe these are indicators of a thriving economy. We know we have a bifurcated economy. The bubble is in the lower income range of homes. Again, context tells you why. Numerous factors.

It needs to drop another 20-30%. New home builders are being stubborn and trying to prop up prices with temporary rate buy-downs incentives. This just kicks the can down the road. I wonder how many rate buy downs loans are getting reset in 2025/2026? With all the tech companies layoffs there is definitely trouble in paradise its only a matter of time unless consumer level 30 yr fixed mortgages get back down to 2.5-3% which I don’t see happening with our debt situation as a country.

The house price index will continue to rise, especially with the lower end homes being averaged out. Guess what, the same will be true for wage growth! As we layoff and factor out lower incomes, the average goes up. You have to look at data in context.

I’m hoping to buy in March 2025. Asking Santa to bring lower interest rates and 20% price drops for homes. Yeah, I know. Not enough cookies and milk in the world to get this by March. He said he would consider it. 😂

Wait until the tariffs hit Canadian lumber 🎉

Here is 1 for the algorithm!😊 #Realestateislocal

1st 😂 Happy Tuesday/Wednesday Jason!👍 #LETSGETNERDY

New home sales down 17.8% in October 2024. Huge disparity in geography with the South getting crushed, West down 9%, Midwest up marginally, while the Notheast up 50%. This report shows the new (and by many unexpected) reality of the housing market. Will it persist? I don’t know, but I see strong demand and very limited supply throughout southeastern Pennsylvania.