Social engineering is what explains it. 2 40-year periods. One of centralization split in blocks of 20 years. One of the order, then an unravelling of that order.. followed by another 40 years of decentralisation, split into 2 20 years. Order followed by a period of unravelling.

11:26 Abe Lincoln the tyrant who suspended habeas corpus?

Overprotective parents show up in overprotective politics but checks and balances hurt rather than help

came here to listen to Mike but he was not allowed to talk.. goodbye!

Fantastic

This guy has dreamed of a theory an axis, though it’s all backed up by fact it’s totally predictable. It’s a squishy and mushy is oatmeal.

Sorry for dropping one of the worst words in English... yes, you've guessed it, the K-word... "Karl Marx." Reading Karl Marx (who was an economist after all) would probably shed more light on this conversation than bringing up sketchy notions such as "Generation X" or other similar concepts. People react to their environment. After WWII, the economy was booming, which led to "Peace, Sex, and Rock 'n' Roll." Today, this generation is indebted, facing global warming, the opioid crisis, the rise of AI, underpaid jobs, and exorbitant rents and house prices. No wonder this generation is anxious and depressed.

Wow he is correct on GenX . 55 year old and latchkey kid. I was not overprotective but didn’t give my kids the freedom I had. I just didn’t want them doing and making some of the mistakes I did.

Very informative......thank you

It all comes down to how much elite overproduction takes place. Elite overproduction, compared to available positions for elites, *always* causes discontent. And as they say in the military, "Shit flows downhill." Ancient societies may have had (almost certainly did) less of a sense of linear progress (where everyone expects their lot to improve noticeably over time) than later, "modern" societies, but people in all societies (and all societies are pyramidal), are extremely sensitive to losing their social footing. In fact, people are much more sensitive to that than they are to some perception that they are not getting ahead of anyone else. "I may not be able to climb, but god help rulers if me and too many of my friends perceive 'slippage'."

Harley, you're absolutely right that cycles are global, but at the same time country specific. Demographics (no surprise) is the huge driver. If you haven't, please read "End Times" (not a religious tome) by Peter Turchin, a proponent of something called 'Cliodynamics'. Agree or not, it's an interesting theory of cycles.

An awful lot of seemingly anecdotal stuff said by Neil that just wouldn't hold up to any even cursory examination. For example, (talking about the 'G.I. Generation') "They were communal." Oh, really? They were incredibly tribal and racist, truth be told. This was the generation that, post-war, came home and red-lined huge chunks of American urban real estate, and who built superhighways smack through the middle of what wasn't deemed worth red-lining. Many of these "it was better back then" stories sound great. But the closer you look, the more you think, "Plus ça change." And it was *that generation, not the Boomers, who reacted so viscerally to Brown v Board of Ed, and to the Civil Rights Legislation that, LBJ correctly surmised, "... will cost us the South for as far into the future as I can see". It was adults, then, born in the 1920s and 1930s, who reacted like that. It was *that generation, born pre-war, that peppered the USA with "Impeach Earl Warren" billboards from coast to coast.

The only reason Millenials have been labeled "entitiled" has been due to Boomer projection on to their kids

Great guest and interview. Thank you.

Great insight and conversation.

Every conversation with Mike Green seems like a debate over who is more intelligent. Do you want to be right or do you want to make money? Harley can't opine as eloquently as Green, few of us can, but the less he says the smarter he seems to me as Green doesn't know the first rule about digging a hole, to stop digging! Another interesting interview from Howe who is always refreshing to listen to.

Mike once again deflects being wrong on inflation by ridiculing Harvey albeit in a good natured way. Even Powell has acknowledged his error, something arrogant Green can't bring himself to do.

At 7:44 you state that the fund will distribute more than what it actually earned, during some months. That's scary. How long can that go on for? I would really like to buy SVOL but I'm still working to fully understand the fund.

As an investing enthusiast, I often wonder how top level investors are able to become millionaires off investing. I do have a significant amount of capital that is required to start up but I have no idea what strategies and direction I need to approach to help me make decent returns.

did simplify hire cathy wood?

superb conversation (listening from India)

Are children expensive especially in a developed society? Compared to child labor in an agricultural economy. Can we forget "It's relative?"

2:30

Very helpful. Thank you. Interplay among convexity, spreads, implied vol, inverted yield curve, etc. Very helpful for understanding this stuff.

I'm long India. But GDP growth is a bad argument. Demographics, FDI..etc..but the stock market is not GDP and you can look at the last 10 or 20 years in China for that.

this indian is painting such a bulish picture of India as if he is being spied on using Pegasus and income tax authorities, CBI and Enforcement directorate are after him. India spends only .39% of its gdp on research, 1/3 of world's stunted and malnutrition children are in India, worst air quality, water shortage, food adulteration, lack of medical welfare, education system is outdated, brain drain has increased by 85% in the last ten years, 1.2 million high net worth individuals have given up Indian citizenship in the last ten years. I can go on and on, but you only have to look at our illiterate political leaders to understand the caliber and maturity of our population. Religion, caste and reservation system have deprived this nation of its long due economic prosperity thats why indians do so well when we are settled abroad. We are born in this country to leave it period.

On birth rates, everyone misses the effects of industrialization. People living on farms and rural villages are poor, yet they work from home and have time to spend with their families and space to set another bed. Even small stores or bakeries have children of the vendors right there in the shop. Once they move to cities and factories, they work long hours apart from their families, often far away, and they have much smaller dwellings which are often shared with strangers. Rich people have more kids than lower middle class factory workers because they can. Birth rates are so low throughout much of the world today because costs of living are high relative to wages, while working hours are long and apart from family. These dynamics make child rearing exceptionally difficult. I also think its quite snobbish to say that immigration “solves” this low birth rate problem. Whenever I hear that I think “what are we to you? Numbers on a ledger? Widgets that can be replaced by identical ones from abroad?” People who want to have kids should have a reasonable way to do so, and that often isn’t the case. Preventing people from having kids through systemic industrial poverty while bringing in loads of immigrants to replace them leads to anger and social problems which should be obvious to other humans, even if they make enough money so that they don’t have to deal with those problems personally.

Ok, I think yo should try again. Not as informative as usual.

Democracy vs Dictatorship is a very different decision than government-led economy vs more open capitalism. The periods of rapid growth in Japan, then South Korea, then China have all used state-sanctioned economic policies and favored industrial champions, yet they have very different forms of government.

Cheating is endemic in the culture over there. Can't trust management and can't trust auditors making it uninvestable for the foreseeable future

2000 shares and I receive monthly rent like an apartment owner in Baltimore. Just without all the trouble around 😊

The best fund next to yieldmax 💰💰💰💰💰

Interesting conversation, guys. Thanks!

Looking at Simplify's current top 5 sellers beyond $200m Net Assets the sequence is: *SVOL* ($966m) - *MTBA* ($714m) - *TUA* ($517m) - *HIGH* ($420m) - *AGGH* ($201m). I'd have appreciated a slide showing how *CRDT* fits in the portfolio resp. how it's approach differs from that of other ETF labeled 'Alternative' or 'Fixed Income'.

To Prof. Atwater, you know darn well there will be no glut of engineers or computer science grads. The colleges and universities will sell the empty seats to wealthy foreigners. Paleeese!

Michael Green absolutely nailed it @47:00. I am exactly that demographic. Retired, asset rich and income poor, except that I would add is, some of us are "intentionally" income poor. I don't understand what he means when he states that during covid "we gave a lot of money to old people". What did I miss out on?

BLS use the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages for the basis of the birth-death adjustment, not the business formations stats that you cited (www.bls.gov/opub/hom/ces/calculation.htm#business-births-and-deaths). The business net births from the QCEM is a lot less pronounced (although still strong) that what you showed

Before fees and expenses? What is the net?

I think this talk woulld be more interesting if each of these speakers shared their bank account balance with the viewers

Is it making gains though ?

Authoritarian - trying to take down your opponent w the DOJ

Harleys so cute

Any plan to pay dividend to investors?

Interesting discussion. One thing I always hear that I have to push back on is the lack of trade jobs … I lost a lot in the GFC when my career in HVAC was de-railed, and I remember very well the voices from the top saying that construction workers needed to re-train, telling them to learn to code. Now those voices are telling programmers to learn a trade, but these jobs are all cyclical and they always push people to the last shortage. So many people have recently been crushed by getting into trucking at the top of the 2021 freight boom, and this isn’t even acknowledged by those at the top.

Loved the discussion as always

Harley, fyi Top Earner Florida via Zip Recruiter. All are 25%> than Median. Plumber $74,000 Electrician $64,000 Welder $48,000 Owning a plumbing company, sure $200k, but that's not the 95%. Helping you be in touch, the numbers you pitch are double accurate and actual wages.

Great discussion. Thanks to all three of you for your time.

I agree with Mike that a fine arts degree is pretty much useless in terms of qualifying you for a job but I think he misses the point. I have a bachelor' of arts degree. It didn't qualify me for any job. That is true. However I did learn philosophy, political economy. The media, and many of those subjects are becoming more relevant today.

always excellent research; mike has to be one of the most smart people ive ever listened speak on markets.

The "entitled snowflakes" are breaking their backs to do all the actual work for entitled and incompetent DEI hires Harley, isn't it so interesting how you have a whole ethnostate where that isn't an issue?