Excuse me??? 'Cause I naturally have this mental models since I was a kid.

Will having the hair of a Lego person make me a genius?

thank you❤

Wise, Useful.

Very good! Did notice two things that added noise for me: 1) using four matrix combinations before describing the two axes; 2) (which follows from #1) throwing away inconsequential decisions without understanding how to rate consequences.

ANNOTATIONS/NOTES: 6:37 inversion: approaching a situation in the opposite way (7:09looking for failure and how to avoid it first rather than starting with what success looks like) 10:14 activation energy explained: (10:33 examples) 10:52 ways to go about a challenging task that requires lots of activation energy

Did your guys boarder start light up and darkening?

Great content, thanks 🙌🏻

“Thinking in Bets” is a great book and the closest to probabilistic thinking.

Best thinking model = Think more

Even his examples are not original and yet here we are talking about first principles thinking 😂😂😂

why you here? you think your'e stupid?

🎯 Key points for quick navigation: 00:00:13 *🧠 Mental models are representations of how the world works, simplifying complex realities.* 00:00:27 *🌳 Different perspectives, like those of an environmentalist, botanist, and business person, highlight the limitation of individual views.* 00:01:24 *🔄 Sharing specialized knowledge broadens understanding, akin to using multiple mental models.* 00:02:04 *🗺️ "Map is not the territory" emphasizes that representations of reality are not the reality itself.* 00:03:14 *🎯 "Circle of competence" advocates knowing your areas of expertise and consulting experts when outside of it.* 00:04:12 *🤔 "Second order thinking" involves considering the consequences of consequences, avoiding simplistic decision-making.* 00:05:08 *🐍 The "Cobra effect" illustrates the pitfalls of first-order thinking through an example of unintended consequences in British India.* 00:05:53 *📊 "Probabilistic thinking" uses math and logic to estimate the likelihood of outcomes, adding context to information.* 00:07:02 *💡 "Inversion" seeks to prevent failure by identifying and avoiding its causes, rather than solely aiming for success.* 00:07:47 *🔍 "Occam's razor" prefers simpler explanations over complex ones, aiding in rational decision-making.* 00:09:12 *🧾 "Hanlon’s Razor" suggests attributing actions to incompetence rather than malice, reducing undue negative assumptions.* 00:09:42 *🤝 "Reciprocity principle" states that actions have equivalent reactions, emphasizing the impact of our behavior toward others.* 00:10:12 *⚡ "Activation energy" from chemistry can be lowered with catalysts, making starting tasks easier through motivational triggers.* Made with HARPA AI

Thank you for this!!! Great stuff!!

This video is promoting herd mentality.

I hate when people talk this way to me because it's idiotic. If we know what happened why are you asking me what happened why are you talking to me about the event shut the f****** I'll try again leave me the f*** alone about the past it's in the past shut up.

Seriously good stuff

Follow the Learner's Loop

The circle of competence is a double-edged sword. For example, critical thinking is a skill and a point within most circles of competence. When you learn more skills, you learn more and more and more. At some point you're going to identify algorithms in thinking and start coming up with general models of all other fields of interest. The only difference being nuanced knowledge. Relying on other circles of influence is fine until you lose the ability to think for yourself. [Edit] My mind is a maze at times, let me clarify and correct myself: I wanted to make the point that learning skills on the way to expertise can and will allow you be competent in other fields, but I'm wrong in assuming that.

Love the example of nasa

Reciprocity is generally thought of as true, but if you are a man and you try it out in the dating world women will rarely reciprocate. It works from male to male and female to female, but it falls apart if the relationship is male to female to female to male. Tom Sisson

First Principles Thinking: Break down problems into their fundamental components and build solutions from the ground up. Question assumptions and conventional wisdom to arrive at original insights. Holistic Thinking: Consider the interconnectedness of various factors and systems when analyzing problems or situations. Take a broad perspective and explore how different elements interact and influence each other. Divergent Thinking: Generate multiple creative solutions to a problem by exploring different perspectives, ideas, and possibilities. Embrace ambiguity and explore unconventional approaches to problem-solving. Systems Thinking: View problems as part of larger systems or networks, considering the feedback loops, dependencies, and emergent properties that shape complex phenomena. Analyze how changes in one part of the system affect the whole. Meta-Learning: Learn how to learn effectively by understanding your own learning process, identifying patterns in your learning experiences, and optimizing your learning strategies accordingly. Emphasize curiosity, experimentation, and continuous improvement. Abstraction: Simplify complex problems by identifying underlying patterns, principles, or analogies that allow you to generalize solutions across different contexts. Use abstraction to distill complex information into simpler, more manageable forms. Probabilistic Thinking: Make decisions under uncertainty by considering probabilities, risks, and potential outcomes. Use probabilistic reasoning to weigh evidence, assess uncertainty, and make informed choices. Reductive Reasoning: Break down complex problems into smaller, more manageable components and analyze each part systematically. Identify key variables, constraints, and dependencies to develop focused solutions. Empathy and Perspective-taking: Put yourself in the shoes of others and consider their perspectives, motivations, and emotions when analyzing problems or making decisions. Practice empathy to understand the needs and preferences of different stakeholders. Iterative Experimentation: Embrace a mindset of continuous experimentation and iteration, allowing yourself to test hypotheses, gather feedback, and refine your ideas through trial and error. Emphasize learning from failure and using feedback to improve your solutions over time.

Hello I am the only genius on the planet, so these models are just trying to reproduce... me. I will make it easier for you, thought experiments, being a genius is the ability to solve never before seen problems in reality. You will never be a genius if you specialise, you will become a professor, a genius is someone trying to find the answers to everything, no matter how small, it all helps the big picture. So learn, learn all that can be learned. Your brain capacity cannot handle it, it literally cannot recall everything, but if you recall even a fraction of the essence of all the useful knowledge of humanity, you will be on the path to being a genius. Your iq will need to start above 120 though. You need to be able to remember a lot... It took me 40 years to clarify the difference between smart and intelligence, up until 2019, no one on the planet knew the difference, now, you get avocado chairs... interchanging concepts. If you could see all my blogs, they are long since gone, all my pre-print papers, still there, you would gain a lot of intelligence points. Do not believe the narrative that Einstein, newton etc were genius', brilliant yes, building on prior knowledge, a genius leaves them behind. Matthew

notes: 1. Don't be scared to quit a book that you dislike reading. 2. There are four levels of reading books. (EIUM) - Reading to entertain. - Reading to inform. - Reading to understand. - Reading to master. 3. Find good books. 4. Write what you read, preferably using the Blank Sheet Method. "One of the best ways to learn is to read, the best way to learn more is to read more"

is it not Chris 'Argyris' instead of 'Agyris'?😅

Ok I subscribed. I like the message and delivery. Good job brother. Keep up the good work.

Great content!!! Thank you

Intelligent Investor by Benjamin Graham is the best book to read for investors of all levels

lol I love this

I think it doesn't works for all

Remember that these aren't universal truths. No system is perfect, there's always an inherent risk and imperfection to whatever strategy you choose to follow. There's a popular example for Occam's Razor: What is more probable, has less moving parts? a. Santa Claus is real. b. Hundreds of millions of adults are in a global conspiracy all around the world to fool their children.

You are awesome . . . I have 3 of your booksw and have subscribed to your email newsletter. Keep up the GREAT work!

For some reason honestly, I remember what I read in books more than videos. But anyways, Your book too was indeed amazing! You worth the praise! Thanks a lot!!!

Long intro of nothingness

Thanks you so much

I recall some of the models from the book 7 Habits of Highly Effective People

Have you been day drinking again

affective rippling effects an outcomes implications impact

Omg ! Never knew he had an INdian accent 😳🤓🥸

identify the variables and the range of outcomes. Create a probability distribution for the outcomes. Write down the alternatives before communicating or making the decision. Maintain a decision journal, noting your state of mind and the information available when you made the decision

Beautifully said.

People can anything with a great tone and still be great. Unbelievable

Great summary of the 3 hrs 223 minutes book.

Excellent video!

nice video, srsly!❤

these are similar to the 7 habbits by Stephen Covey....

You are wrong about conspiracies. Once an official story seems suspect and problematic, there is no need to prove every detail of a possible conspiracy to suggest that there is one, and the simplest explanation is in fact false because it doesn't account for, or casually dismisses, the indications of foul play.

Delegation and outsourcing! A tough skill that I am trying hard to master. If anyone has tips, I would love to hear them. Also, I teach a similar matrix but my axes are reversibility and impact. Same, same but different. I love a good matrix. Great stuff, Shane!

To everyone reading these comments and watching this video, you're on the right track :) When I found decision-journalling, it changed my entire approach to life. It's an amazing tool. It just takes a bit of intention to get it started. Once you have got it moving though, it puts you ahead of most people who just say YOLO and cross their fingers.

For those of you watching the video and reading these comments, you're on the right track! Journalling is one of those killer apps like excercise and sleep that are low-cost that can really change your life. I'd love to hear how you're going :)