It is probably a matter of cost vs return - A recovery method for an oilfield is determined in the initial development plan to give the maximum return for the money invested - EOR can be done from day one - but a. you need a source of CO2 or steam and significant extra engineering which costs b. the extra oil recovered by EOR needs to be worth more than the cost of the EOR c. The operator needs to really understand EOR - the more complex a project (and EOR is complex to implement) the more scope there is for cost and time over runs d. Most large oilfields for which EOR is suitable were first developed a long time ago (decades) when EOR was a mere glint in an engineers eye rather than a proven technology, hence late implementation e. There is a not invented here mentality among some operators which can hinder progress

The OECD are just not as important as they think they are. Only USA (7% of global coal exports) and Australia (25%) are significant coal exporters non OECD countries represent 2/3 of the world export coal trade. Most of the growth in coal production in recent years has also been in Asia and the biggest consumers (China & India) are relatively self sufficient Only 21 % of world coal is consumed outside the country where it is mined, compared to the 42% of oil which is consumed outside the country of production

The source of the coal plant data is globalenergymonitor.org/projects/global-coal-plant-tracker/

CO2 capture is not a particularly chemical intensive process, Amine solvents are used in Co2 absorption in some low volume settings - This paper by Dziejarski, Serafin et al might help www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2589234723001690#:~:text=Generally%2C%20the%20most%20widely%20used,%2C%20biochar%2C%20and%20hydrochar).

I think that the Oxford Institute of Energy studies - www.oxfordenergy.org/ may be a good place to start

I do not remember saying 19.5% for a recovery factor having re looked at the script PowerPoint I tend to use round numbers A 20% recovery factor would be disappointing for an oil field, 35 to 40% would be more typical for a mid case A recovery factor is an artificial construct being the recovered volume / in place volume - a 19.5% recovery factor is therefore possible but I would be a bit suspicious of anyone quoting decimal places in this situation

Mike - using Swanson's rule takes both high and low cases into account which I believe is necessary - the tricky bit as you say is choosing appropriate high and low values for the estimation - a high case which is too high will as you say skew the result upwards a probabilistic / Monte-Carlo approach may be better - I do feel that using a single number from a best /most likely case will also have its flaws as it does not take uncertainty into account , however many managers do like a single number

I talk about this in my Basic economics primer video To sum up we should use recoverable resource estimates not Volume in place We should really use 3 cases , low. mid and high: weighted using Swanson's rule - with 30% weighting to low and high and 40% weighting to the mid case to come up with a summary NPV value If we are to use one case only (not ideal) then we should use the mean case as this represents an average of all the cases

@@AlanFoumGeophysicist ok thank you. i appreciate your swift response

Yes to paraphrase Confucius - a discovery has a thousand parents , a dry hole is an orphan

Effective porosity is the porosity that is connected, Total porosity includes non connected pores. The non connected pores cannot contain hydrocarbons. The connected pores may contain producible hydrocarbons and therefore this is what should be used in HC in place estimation. The two porosity estimates are usually very close in most rocks - please see my video a basic primer on porosity and permeability

I do not know - but almost all the giant fields that have been discovered since 2000 worldwide have been in deep water and about 70 to 80% of the volumes discovered by large listed companies since 2000 were also in deep water settings If you are talking about the USA , namely the Gulf of Mexico I do not know enough about it but some significant discoveries have been made in the recent past - Question will the US large Caps that have concentrated virtually exclusively on shale come back to conventional exploration?

The best accessible videos on this subject are by Mike Cooper of Trove = www.youtube.com/@TROVE-1stSubsurface

I cover this part in my videos on advantaged oil barrels (2 parts)

@@AlanFoumGeophysicist Watching it now.