10 Day Trend 01/05/2024 - Weak jet and flabby lows - Met Office Weather Forecast

This is the Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next 10 days, dated 01/05/2024
A feeble jet stream makes for slow moving weather patterns and a mixed forecast. The bank holiday weekend looks particularly tricky before higher pressure may move in next week.
Bringing you this 10 day trend is Met Office meteorologist Alex Deakin.
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[@neilporter3286]

Typically British weather for a Bank Holiday - mixed and hard to predict!

[@simonh870]

What a surprise. I hate the UK climate most of the time.

[@MrPhillipgraham]

I think we just have to embrace and enjoy the rain, and then when the sun comes out that's a bonus! 😅

[@edwardsp1916]

If I was a weather forecaster in the UK, these are the 3 lines I would use in Summer @07:33

[@matthewclatworthy3597]

As always, thanks Alex. Question for you, compared to, say, 20 years ago how much more accurate (or confidence in) has a 10 day forecast become?

[@matthughes6474]

Not a complete answer but I was told that, at the time of the Fastnet Storm in 1979, the confidence in the two day forecast was about the same as for the seven day forecast now. Firstly, that was from a journalist and, secondly, development is not linear, but if it is true then it's a 350% improvement in 45 years. So the last ten years would see about an 80% improvement. That's a very unscientific analysis 🙂

[@ruperthiggins7358]

Thanks once again Alex!

[@hallstewart]

Makes sense, Spring is always messy. I think we forget we are geographically stuck out in the Atlantic ocean storm conveyor belt most of the time.

[@viviennehamilton4127]

Today in the East Midlands it was very misty until about 9.30am then it was cloudy until 12 noon then sunny and warm until 1.30 then dark clouds then sunny and warm from about 4pm 🙈 what kind of nonsense is that for May Day 🤬🤬🤬

[@philipmurphy2]

10 day trend, even the computers don't agree with each other on UK weather.

[@SamsVlogstrainsmore]

Thanks for the detailed forecast Alex

[@matthewtrow5698]

Had to rebook a trip to Skomer island tomorrow due to having a bad cold, certainly looks like it may have been a fortuitous outcome. South West Wales is a total washout tomorrow! This 10 day trend sadly (and obviously) doesn't cover the South West Wales forecast for _next_ Thursday (rebooked for then), but I'm working on the theory it couldn't get much worse ... could it? 😬

[@markrichards7164]

I don’t make plans ahead these days. Hope to have a couple of days away next week for a tandem skydive.

[@chrisa9043]

10 day out look should be interesting.

[@georgejohnstone4235]

Thanks

[@Denathorn]

I knew as soon as I watched this that the North-East of England would be generally be taped off from the nice high temperatures... Seems to be always the case... For the last YEAR nearly! :D

[@machandler70]

So, the southwest has been brutalised with a powerful south shifted jet over the last 6 months and now gets done by a flabby, weak and meandering May jet. Will it ever end?!

[@paulbrum6690]

Ai seems to be a big thing at the moment, does Ai play any part in the weather models that you use? - love watching the Deep Dives and 10 Day Trend, Thank you to everyone involved at the Met Office. 👍😁👏

[@Arya-cf7vu]

Nice weather from 2nd week of May? I'll believe it when I see it. Weather in South east this year, so far has been pants and boring😢

[@elaineambrose7413]

Oh well if it’s nice it’s an added bonus if not there’s plenty of films on the fire stick 😂

[@cronavirus_ragnareich]

Weak, flabby, low, low confidence and unpredictable. Sounds like he's talking about my brain.

[@markrichards7164]

How often do these 10 trends turn out to be correct

[@ruperthiggins7358]

I don't think 'correct' is the right category for these 10-day forecasts in the same way it might be for a 24-hour forecast. As Alex said, every forecast has a probability attached to it, which gives the likelihood of the trend (or not).

[@Mykst]

I recommend that you watch the Deep Dive video that was posted on Tuesday of this week. It gives insight as to why forecasts can be difficult, especially at the current time of the year.

[@soton5teve]

Is the title a weather report?, or have you hacked my recent physical exam.

[@yesmate78]

So usual average weather then.

[@orbitspec9199]

Met office's uncertainty principle.

[@terencemeikle534]

Yay. The Dalmatian plot is back! ⚫️ ⚫️ ⚫️

[@marycamilleri447]

Yeah but you are dealing with the environment

[@johnadams6771]

We hear all the time about the various computer models and their outputs, but does anybody actually do a manual forecast these days, or at least look at the computer outputs and make manual modifications?

[@huntersawyer1373]

The jet stream is supposed to be a stream. That's not a stream.... It's like gymnast with ribbons. It's all over the place. Climate collapse incoming.

[@charlieh2492]

Truth is you haven't got a clue, computer says ?

[@Mykst]

I recommend that you watch the Deep Dive video that was posted on Tuesday of this week. It gives insight as to why forecasts can be difficult, especially at the current time of the year.

[@TrancetasticWilza]

Let me guess... look out the window?

[@jimdowney91]

I love the way people think forecasting is easy especially as the UK and Ireland are Islands in the Atlantic Ocean..

[@Smiffy-72]

More of a clue than you I would of thought 😊

[@garycwikla6385]

Genius. You spent 11 minutes telling us absolutely nothing.

[@Mykst]

I recommend that you watch the Deep Dive video that was posted on Tuesday of this week. It gives insight as to why forecasts can be difficult, especially at the current time of the year.

[@vv7611]

Harsh

[@TheFlyingHaggis]

It's not their fault that spring has been miserable.

[@davewright9313]

I've travelled around the world and Alex is one of the best forecasters there is.

[@garycwikla6385]

@@davewright9313 I’m not knocking the presenter, I’m just saying that it was long winded (pardon the pun) to give us no information.

[@Brenda1235.]

Gibberish 🙄

[@Mykst]

I recommend that you watch the Deep Dive video that was posted on Tuesday of this week. It gives insight as to why forecasts can be difficult, especially at the current time of the year.