Human Extinction: What Are the Risks?

[@Nefville]

A nice break from the heavy topics, like black holes and neutron stars.

[@TheWorldTeacher]

You are urged to become VEGAN, since carnism (the destructive ideology which supports the use and consumption of animal products, especially for “food”) is arguably the foremost existential crisis.🌱

[@useodyseeorbitchute9450]

@@TheWorldTeacher I thought that existential crisis is accumulating mutational load that with combination with gene-environment mismatch is causing surge of evolutionary maladaptive behaviours and bizarre ideologies. You just presented a symptom of the problem that I point out.

[@komalley35]

Funny

[@michaelblacktree]

hehe

[@1voluntaryist]

Unless you consider extinction the ultimate, i.e., heaviest, topic. I do. But it's not science, it's philosophy, specifically, psycho-epistemology.

[@sahebchoudhury]

I am scientifically almost illiterate and yet I almost never miss watching Sabine's videos. You are gift for people like me. Thank you.

[@Dan-dy8zp]

Well, Imagine someone 200 years ago, 1823, declaring something about how expansive a particular computation is going to be to perform in 2023. That's still not as dumb as her prediction about AGI being unrealistic for the next 200 years because the pace of technological improvement has actually increased since the 1800's. Her claim that AGI is unlikely in the next 200 years COULD be true, but there is no good reason to ASSUME so.

[@sheilakijawani2526]

Samajh bhi aata hai bhai? Kuch chize bouncer jaati.

[@Dan-dy8zp]

@@mootytootyfrooty Yes, I think the big hurdle left is on the software side. Then again, GPT-3 might be 1/300th the computing power of a human brain so whose to say what properties the current systems would have if simply scaled up. Interesting time to be alive, for sure!!!

[@Dan-dy8zp]

@@sheilakijawani2526 Something bounced? This is not clear when translated into English directly.

[@kyran333]

Well imagine what would happen to you if you listen to a Tom cambell video

[@MedlifeCrisis]

I can’t say I’m as optimistic as you regarding COVID being Pirates 3. No one learned their lessons, they still went to see the fourth movie and judging by how humanity reacted with a mild virus I am confident we’ll totally balls up the response to a future super plague

[@theblinkingbrownie4654]

I have seen enough zombie movies to know that we are doomed

[@Chamelionroses]

Happy New year

[@flagmichael]

@@theblinkingbrownie4654 Absolutely! No species that was _not_ doomed would make zombie movies. That would be ridiculous.

[@hugegamer5988]

I think Covid hit a sweet spot. If there were hundreds dropped to the ground in the street, with cars driving into poles and the drivers collapsing on the ground, like in plague movies, people would be scared shtless and take it seriously. It’s the being spread without symptoms and only killing 3-5% slowly that allowed it to infect everyone and really bring out the stupid. I’m sure the next response will be stupid, it’s just going to be hard to top the last stupid.

[@michaelblacktree]

@@jamielondon6436 - The word 'hubris' comes to mind.

[@marope]

Sabine at 19:25 "In summary, the biggest existencial risk is our own stupidity" Thank you, Sabine. We have already guessed that conclusion but at least now we can say it is been endorsed by a prestigious German theoretical physicist.

[@user-yc3fw6vq5n]

Haha

[@LeanAndMean44]

Who is we?

[@gessie]

@@LeanAndMean44 I assume those of us who view human psychology, history and anthropology empirically as opposed to relying on self-aggrandizing claims such as divinity, moral relativity or other gobbledygook.

[@neilgerace355]

Unfortunately the stupidest ones are the loudest and so they are listened to more. That makes them more powerful than the rest of us.

[@r.guerreiro140]

You are the stupid here, Mr P You and your hate speech toward mankind

[@MeitarAbarbabnel-jp5wb]

I am a math student who relies on physics videos to complete some gaps resulting from our not-so-great educational system. After watching all the big videos out there, you're the only one I keep follow and I constantly learn new things with every video you post. Although there are some things I don't 100% agree with you on, you always educate me and present subjects very simply, no matter how complicated they are. Love you jokes, which is a whole other thing I enjoy. Thank you!

[@michaelworkman4057]

Gotta hand it to Sabine, she's reassured us and warned us in ways that are very useful, well-put and simplified but not dumbed down. Happy new year Sabine and thank you again!

[@ififif31]

10:35 Sabine's take that "we pretty much learned nothing" to a 16.4% average probability of a nuclear attack by experts is flat out wrong and dangerously misleading. Sabine obviously never heard of an important statistical/probabilistic concept called the WISDOM OF THE CROWD. She seriously needs to look that up and make a correction video because she's dangerously misleading the public and it's this kind of ignorance that's gonna end human civilization. For example, we know that if you ask a bunch of people to guess the weight of a cow, the range of guesses is gonna be very wide but their AVERAGE is gonna be a VERY GOOD approximation to the actual weight. (BTW a 16.4% probability of a nuclear attack is basically the same probability as dying in a single round of Russian roulette.)

[@jeromethibodeau4378]

kzbin.info/www/bejne/sKKspWxpmal6Z68&ab_channel=NielsvanderWolk

[@ArtemisShanks]

I can always count on Sabine’s videos to amplify any existential crisis I happen to be entertaining.

[@philipm3173]

Impermanent and suffering are all conditioned things and all formations have the characteristic of impersonality (egolessness). When one perceives this with insight one ends suffering

[@fredflintstone8048]

A lot of 'gain' in the amplification...

[@AurelienCarnoy]

@@philipm3173 it's true only if it's true for you.

[@TS-1267]

....OH! .. INDUBITABLY OLD FRUIT!. .... 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿🙏🖖😆😆

[@carlodave9]

Same here. The worst thing about human extinction would be that all chihuahuas would die.

[@maxmustermann9587]

A talk about human extinction is not complete without a detailed consideration of the benefits. Thank you for this.

[@publicdomain1103]

Whole other segment on machine cannibalism and the ethics of recycling ones own.

[@flirtwithdanger_les]

Human extinction might be a bad thing for nature; consider atomic power plants, chemical factories and bioweapon / chemical weapon labs without maintenance.

[@maxmustermann9587]

@@flirtwithdanger_les Nah, nature has survived much more dangerous things than humanity. It just won't be the nature we live in.

[@mr2981]

@@flirtwithdanger_les Maybe the last few people left could turn the lights off.

[@Erowens98]

Thats impossible to determine objectively. As there is no objective meaning for life. Its just the outcome of accidental chemical reactions. Anything that doesn't directly effect humans, essentially, does not matter. Since we're the ones making up the rules for what "matters" to begin with. Space rocks don't care. The only reason we even care about climate change is because it might make earth harder to live on for humans via its effects on the ecosystem

[@chucknaussie]

Sabine, I don't usually comment but just wanted to say I appreciate your channel/commentary and it is indeed "without the gobblygook" and yet it is rigorous and disciplined and this has great appeal to the educated and curious. Another aspect I also like is your dry humor. Look forward to seeing more of your content !!

[@rileyhoffman6629]

I so appreciate someone with such a profound understanding of her subject she doesn't need jargon or a proprietary grip.

[@rileyhoffman6629]

@@annarock8966 What ??

[@phaymphantom256]

Everything she says is gobbledygook.

[@marcomoreno6748]

​@@phaymphantom256Least upset flat earther.

[@sully671]

Loved the intro, lighthearted talk about human extinction. Sabina humor fills me with joy.

[@carlodave9]

For me, this was the Midsummer Night’s Dream of Sabine vids. A masterpiece! But perhaps her informed cynicism and dry humor has slowly damaged me in some way.🤔

[@Angel_EU34]

The title with the :D face absolutely got me rolling on the floor xD

[@jeromethibodeau4378]

kzbin.info/www/bejne/sKKspWxpmal6Z68&ab_channel=NielsvanderWolk

[@RhaniYago]

Habe den Kanal erst vor ein paar Tagen entdeckt und bin total begeistert. Jetzt weiß ich genau, wie ich die nächsten Tage und Wochen abends verbringe - alle alten Folgen ansehen. Sabine, Sie sind eine Wucht.

[@jeromethibodeau4378]

kzbin.info/www/bejne/sKKspWxpmal6Z68&ab_channel=NielsvanderWolk

[@throckmortensnivel2850]

Another excellent presentation from one of the best science presenters on the internet. I always look forward to your videos, Sabina, so keep them coming.

[@area51z63]

LOL if you buy Alphabet she can work for you like she works for me.

[@BigDsGaming2022]

Sabine

[@area51z63]

Sabine has decided to not deal with reality and instead pretend that the math works

[@segfault-]

@@area51z63 LOL right back at ya. Your comment about the big bang.. I can't... You've got to be trolling.

[@area51z63]

@@segfault- Actually since I own Alphabet, I have a responsibility to monitor my company for excellence, which you appear unable to provide on any topic. However as long as your comedy routine gathers enough views and advertising dollars for my bottom line you will be allowed to continue. PS. Did your crypto go to zero yet?

[@dennistucker1153]

Love this subject. I thought about this for some time. This concluded with a couple statements about survival. Survival comes down to 2 items. 1) Recognizing threats before too much damage is done. 2) Taking appropriate mitigating actions in time before too much damage is done. I agree with the categories of threats(natural caused & man-made). I estimate that most threats are man-made and mostly due to not being able to recognize the threats.

[@waynesloane8447]

Great video Sabine, the voice of reason, very informative; and with some fab humour.

[@jeromethibodeau4378]

kzbin.info/www/bejne/sKKspWxpmal6Z68&ab_channel=NielsvanderWolk

[@Nero-dz5gr]

I really like the dry humor mixed with valuable information. absolut "edutainment" (which is the best form to learn) Also the firm way of talking sabine really envokes attention.

[@jeromethibodeau4378]

kzbin.info/www/bejne/sKKspWxpmal6Z68&ab_channel=NielsvanderWolk

[@kbjerke]

Just started reading your book, "Existential Physics." (It was a Christmas gift.) Fascinating read, Sabine! Happy New Year!

[@ProfessorBeautiful]

It was very good... I scarfed it down in a day.

[@kbjerke]

@@ProfessorBeautiful I am trying to "relish and savour" it!! Very enjoyable as well as entertaining. Happy New Year to you!

[@ChrisJones-cp6mn]

Watching average one of your videos per day. Really easy to follow along, without being condescending. Thank you!

[@jimbenge9649]

Sabine, I have enjoyed learning so much this year from your channel/channels (including how to pronounce your name). You make me think very deeply about what I think I know, what I learn from others and most importantly, how to help educate the willing and enquiring minds of my grandchildren. Just like to say there is something about your dead-pan humour that endears you to us Yorkshire folk. Happy new year to you and yours. 🍾🥂

[@user-mo5hz9kp6y]

She's nice looking too.

[@Secretname951]

The recent prime minister we had from Yorkshire was quite deadpan…

[@ififif31]

10:35 Sabine's take that "we pretty much learned nothing" to a 16.4% average probability of a nuclear attack by experts is flat out wrong and dangerously misleading. Sabine obviously never heard of an important statistical/probabilistic concept called the WISDOM OF THE CROWD. She seriously needs to look that up and make a correction video because she's dangerously misleading the public and it's this kind of ignorance that's gonna end human civilization. For example, we know that if you ask a bunch of people to guess the weight of a cow, the range of guesses is gonna be very wide but their AVERAGE is gonna be a VERY GOOD approximation to the actual weight. (BTW a 16.4% probability of a nuclear attack is basically the same probability as dying in a single round of Russian roulette.)

[@dmd7472]

@@user-mo5hz9kp6y cringe comment.

[@polarpalmwv4427]

I enjoy the high level concepts and the dry humor! Very entertaining AND informative. :)

[@johnpetrakis379]

Yes! Almost, dare I say? sarcastic

[@jeromethibodeau4378]

kzbin.info/www/bejne/sKKspWxpmal6Z68&ab_channel=NielsvanderWolk

[@itfrombit]

Never before has such a serious topic been discussed so lightheartedly. Wonderful, as always. Should the world end, I wish Sabine would comment on it all for us. Black holes and LHC? Good to see, that the universe is not so badly designed.

[@jeromethibodeau4378]

kzbin.info/www/bejne/sKKspWxpmal6Z68&ab_channel=NielsvanderWolk

[@alcyone1349]

I like how you save a place for a light-hearted comment even around a grim topic such as extinction. Other than that, excellent demonstration as always.

[@sparky7915]

There are so many satellites in orbit now. What happens if one should fall to earth? LInk: kzbin.info/www/bejne/jXWcZaB7jquUedk

[@js70371]

“So today I want to talk about something light hearted - human extinction.” Hahahaha!!! I love this channel and I love gallows humor. Happy New Year to you and your family Sabine!! Wish you all a happy, healthy, peaceful, prosperous and Nuclear Armageddon free 2023 from Canada!! ☮️❤️🙏🇨🇦😂🍻

[@kindlin]

I think we can all get behind an armageddon-free 2023.

[@NyscanRohid]

Could you maybe chill?

[@carlospenalver8721]

👍🏼 this was her best one yet, looking forward to more in the new year and as an added treat I’m going to apply to 2023 a new way of thinking about the end of the world with something Sabine talked about in one of her previous videos concerning “ does the past still exist” and take 1 second off the doomsday clock right so each time I go to move it forward to boom time it’s already too late and walk back and forward and back and forward . 🤣 happy New Years .🎉🎊🍾🥳🍻

[@js70371]

@@NyscanRohid Nyet 🇷🇺🙏🍻

[@HxTurtle]

she used to live in Canada (and so did I; not that this would matter any, lol)

[@Medley3000]

7:07 This shows a completely wrong understanding of the problem. Just assuming that greenhouse gas emissions would be reduced or even reduced to zero, the climate will not return to pre-industrial levels. Rather, we are on the way to a new normal. One that is much more dangerous to the human species than before. Because we will lose our habitat in large parts of the world. Sir David Anthony King a British chemist, academic, and head of the Climate Crisis Advisory Group said: "If (and that is a big IF) we should reduce the emissions to zero tomorrow [...] The loss of ice from Greenland will continue irreversibly and the loss of methane from the permafrost regions in the landmasses around the arctic circle will also be lost. The first giving rise to a sea level rise of maybe seven meters. And the second giving rise quite possibly to temperature rise of 5 to 8° C."

[@naughtrussel5787]

Useful information to consider whilst doing the planning for the next year. Thank you, I'll take it into account.

[@Oler-yx7xj]

The best New Year's day gift! (Video, not the extinction)

[@TheWorldTeacher]

You are urged to become VEGAN, since carnism (the destructive ideology which supports the use and consumption of animal products, especially for “food”) is arguably the foremost existential crisis.🌱

[@michael-ms4ho]

Thanks for keeping it lighthearted this time around 😂 a lot of people can explain this but doing it and making you laugh at the same time is truly a gift thanks

[@therealb888]

Now this the kind of video that a a true physicist would do on the new year eve and I LOVE IT! ❤

[@ricardopena4961]

Sabine always puts a smile on my face.

[@basteagui]

it was a really uplifting video this end-of-the-year. i feel renewed!!

[@genoesposito3526]

Sabine, I love your videos and how you approach these complex subjects. Keep up the fantastic work!

[@AJPemberton]

Interesting and amusing. The best combo :-) I think I did catch one error: Super volcanoes eject 1000 Km3, not 1000 m3 (11:50)

[@petermacinnes5313]

Good spotting !

[@thomashunt6681]

My Godson and nephew is studying physics and math and engineering. He is not an over achiever, he is just intellectually curious and seeking to be challenged. Your videos have been a godsend to my brother. It isn't just that you discuss a broad range of cutting edge science that doesn't require high level fluency in mathematics, it is also that you model a way we can interact with my brother's son on the topics with which he is engaged. Thank you.

[@d.p.7520]

8:30 Pirates of the Caribbean 3 movie reference is HILARIOUS! I must say I wasn't prepared for that one. Thank you Sabine.

[@thomassmith6232]

I recall that before they set off the first atomic bomb in 1945 that someone asked what the probability was that it would set fire to the atmosphere and destroy all life. The flippant answer; 50-50.

[@kittypeanut4102]

Sadly we survived

[@jessicamorgan3073]

Fab video, thanks 😊 A small correction, a super volcano emits >1 000km³ of material, not 1 000m³. Happy new year!

[@verbumsat]

Yes - this "small" error, is of 9 orders of magnitude, error. But what's an '9 orders of magnitude' error, among friends!?!

[@tfan2222]

@@verbumsat Or, or, consider: Maybe it was a typo and someone missed the “k”?

[@magnot9884]

The advantage of extinction is that we no longer have to fret about the possibility. It will give us total peace of mind.

[@taidee]

Oh Sabine, this was so relaxing, great stuff to enter the new year with 😂

[@BryanLawlor]

Totally agree about the pandemic being a blessing in disguise. It was a mild disaster that gave us a preview of the challenges we might face. Can't say I'm super optimistic about our ability to handle disaster well, but it is what it is!

[@TheHesseJames]

I'm afraid we didn't learn much. Mankind is good at learning in the field of science but not in the field of sociology or politics. That's not how we roll.

[@jasonking1284]

Well, it is very apparent if something like super contagious Ebola did make an appearance, we would all be fucked. The authorities seem to take action AFTER the infection has settled in. That is way, way too late. Restrictions and quarantines need to be enforced immediately, not wait until several hundred of infected people are allowed across borders....

[@leonstenutz6003]

@@TheHesseJames My initial impulse is to agree fully with you. Yet if we observe the bigger picture, despite all that is still terible in human society and politics, we have, overall, come a far way from the days of cannabilism, savage tribal raids, mass open slavery, serfdom and feudalism, widespread tyranny, and so on. That said, your point is well taken. We humans are nowhere near as advanced and secure in ecologic, economic, social, and political development as we are in technology and science. Changing this stark reality is actually a central focus of my current work. Regards from Bolivia.

[@putyograsseson]

@@leonstenutz6003 yeah technology advances faster than ethics

[@the-based-jew6872]

The man made bioweapon you mean. Oh and now the usa are experimenting with them. Much like China have been. Since 2002 China have been researching rcial bi0weapns. Not a good time for humanity. Especially experimenting with such deadly weapons.

[@webenbanu]

Great video! There was a time when I was staunchly in the "human extinction would be good for the planet" camp, but I'm not quite as much of a misanthrope as I used to be. But I also now realize that if we go down, we're taking a lot of other species down with us. They don't deserve that, and we don't have the right to do that to them.

[@bernhardlangers778]

Well, the nuclear winter theory has been heavily challenged as of late, especially since the actual amount of material being blasted up into the atmosphere is dwarfed by volcanism. A full scale nuclear war would likely end most modern civilisations, but an extinction should be considered highly unlikely, especially since modern weapons produce very little nuclear fallout in comparison to past weapons.

[@BartdeBoisblanc]

Because only Sabine could deadpan the sentence: I want to talk about something light hearted human extinction.

[@leokaloper4132]

The crucial phrase lies at 19.24. it really is so true. Making all this video to tell us that ? Well. it was worth it, You're great.

[@BoonPflug]

I thought the most convincing argument against the black hole at the LHC was that the lifetime of a black hole depends on its size, and since it would be extremely small, its lifetime would be negligible and it would practically instantly turn into hawking radiation.

[@Archgeek0]

Yup. Even if there were a major malfunction that somehow both let let a hole form, and also let the beam pile several entire kilograms of protons into it... you'd still have a monumentally tiny black hole that would violently shine itself apart, dumping the mass-energy of several kilograms not far from its point of formation. It would, at worst, completely wreck the collider facility in a way distressingly similar to a low-yield nuke, but it'd pose no threat to the world at large, unless a powerful militarist organization mistook the event for a hostile nuclear strike and started an exchange about it. That's of course at the absurd end of the severity spectrum, because if something did really somehow let a hole form, its mass would much more likely be scarcely in tens of grams range or less, so it'd violently shine itself apart much faster, but with only enough yield to wreck the detector and irradiate its surroundings.

[@Volkbrecht]

I didn't care about it not because it was unlikely, but more because a black hole devouring the planet is nothing that would affect humanity. It would just wipe us out, without a lot of time for feeling sorry for ourselves. If we ever manage to end the species, something like that would be a good way to do it.

[@billspruce8368]

You are awesome, Sabine... thank you and Happy New Year!!

[@ericlipps9459]

Sabine's extrapolation about supercomputers reminds me of predictions made about computers in the 1950s: that there would never be more than a small number of really huge machines under the control of major corporations and the government and no need for anything more. Who knows _what_ will _really_ be available 200 years from now?

[@MaGaO]

That smile at the end of the intro

[@TheWorldTeacher]

You are urged to become VEGAN, since carnism (the destructive ideology which supports the use and consumption of animal products, especially for “food”) is arguably the foremost existential crisis.🌱

[@MaGaO]

@@TheWorldTeacher For some values of _arguably_

[@dradenlol8667]

This video is very informative and the humor riddled throughout it is not lost on me :)

[@mollypenwhistle7918]

Thank you for this video..... and for all your work, making thing understandable and with humour, priceless. Do keep doing what you do 😊

[@MCsCreations]

Well... That's the biggest issue, Sabine. We have more than enough stupidity among humans. 😬 Anyway, stay safe there with your family! 🖖😊 And happy new year!

[@rico_cavalierie]

Phrases like: "Hold my beer", "What could go wrong", "Hey, watch this" and "Wow I didn't think that would happen" lead me to believe that human extinction is a real possibility.

[@HxTurtle]

not to ruin your ideas about the human race, but sentences like the ones you provided are considered fun which is typically the start to what eventually leads to more humans, ya know. (now hold my beer and watch me how I do this gurl because what could possibly go wrong, right?)

[@ififif31]

10:35 Sabine's take that "we pretty much learned nothing" to a 16.4% average probability of a nuclear attack by experts is flat out wrong and dangerously misleading. Sabine obviously never heard of an important statistical/probabilistic concept called the WISDOM OF THE CROWD. She seriously needs to look that up and make a correction video because she's dangerously misleading the public and it's this kind of ignorance that's gonna end human civilization. For example, we know that if you ask a bunch of people to guess the weight of a cow, the range of guesses is gonna be very wide but their AVERAGE is gonna be a VERY GOOD approximation to the actual weight. (BTW a 16.4% probability of a nuclear attack is basically the same probability as dying in a single round of Russian roulette.)

[@HxTurtle]

@@ififif31 I'm pretty sure she kinda heard of everything you also heard of and a bunch beyond that. for starters, this is an urban legend and doesn't hold true under most circumstances. you only believe that because it kinda sounds funny and you simply wanna believe in it. but that's the actual dangerous behavior to only follow what looks like the correct path. instead of objectively assessing it.

[@ififif31]

@@HxTurtle It's definitely not an urban legend and it applies in vastly different areas (eg even marbles in a jar). You're just a POS troll disseminating dangerous information and literally worse than a child molesting serial killer ;) ;) ;) Care to explain why it would've apply here? Note that the 16.4% average probability here was derived by EXPERT analysis so it has even greater validity than just guesses.

[@HxTurtle]

@@ififif31 when you grow up, one day you'll look back and be ashamed of how insanely tight-minded you once were. marbles in a jar isn't any different an example. size of an atom or stars in the universe would be at least a different category. it's not how you thinking it that wrong guesses always cancel out. more often than not, most guesses are just too far off that a few could counter that general misconception. so, to think that the general mass will get it right on average is it course the most dangerous thing that I ever heard of. (in politics, I happily let the masses decide what they want just in order to satisfy the most amount of people. but that's still absurd to think, they'd know it all and everytime without long and difficult expert guidance.) and also, once you grow older, you'll realize that those that think they know it all like yourself are the only real danger or threat we could possibly come across. more you know. so you can stop molesting the Internet with your childish comments. ;)

[@semsenya]

Precisely formulated facts explained with a nerdy humour. Brilliant combination, as always. Thank you, Sabine, keep it up!

[@djelalhassan7631]

What precisely formulated facts?

[@semsenya]

@@djelalhassan7631 I just love the laser-sharp precision, with which Sabine is able to put facts into words. Leaves no space to misinterpret them, even if one wanted to.

[@billy-raysanguine2029]

Very interesting and as always entertaining! I'd absolutely love for the audiotracks of your videos to be available as podcasts so you could listen to them on the train or in the car.

[@aleksandrpeshkov6172]

Enters Maseratti : " Moving Your freights along with Your rates..."

[@toughenupfluffy7294]

One proximate cause of possible extinction you didn't mention is trophic cascades. If we kill off all the insects-which we're on a path towards doing, at least to a significant degree-then we set up a scenario where the intricate food webs that sustain our ecology disintegrate.

[@scambammer6102]

she didn't say much about pandemics either

[@LivBoeree]

It’s bizarre how you completely dismiss Toby Ord’s estimate as “it’s not given with uncertainty so it’s as good as anyone else’s” even though he VERY CLEARLY shows his methodology and uncertainty in the book he wrote on it. Why would you misrepresent things like this?

[@fredericdewitt1208]

A happy note to start the New Year. Seriously, Sabina, I love your sense of humor. Best wishes for the New Year.

[@jgarbo3541]

At least get her name right...

[@bepaminondas7520]

Hi Sabine, thank you for all the videos. Can you please consider doing a video on ergodicity and why it is so important for decision-making? Apparently the foundational paper is "Evaluating Gambles Using Dynamics"

[@albertobernal2537]

Hmmm, interesting. Do these scammers actually sift through comments with "Hi Sabine" or "@Sabine" manually to post their message? Or is it automated by scraping site data, flagging comments and inserting the scammy message? Hmmm... :P *Oh and I meant the "Text me via..." comment using Sabine's YT avatar - I suppose it will be purged eventually.

[@petermaunsell4575]

@@albertobernal2537 pretty sure thats an AI bot trying to find someone to explain ergodicity to it.

[@ericlipps9459]

That ten degrees would be Celsius, corresponding to 18 degrees Fahrenheit, which is roughly the difference between current conditions and those of a full-fledged ice age.

[@michaelkyriacou7026]

Yo Sabine, thanks again for your time and effort!! Gotta mention its unlike you the way you brushed through global warming without even taking into consideration tipping points!! We're about to surpass our first major tipping point before the end and the decade!! Which projects a 2c temperature raise before 2030,you dont need me to point out how unforgiven tipping points are!! Thanks again, happy holidays!! 🖤🖤🖤

[@sanb8595]

While not debating that human activity is causing global warming, it’s irrelevant to human extinction. Greenland used to be Green and lush. There will always be plenty of land for humans to thrive. Miami Venice can disappear but new lands will become the next frontiers. Global warming is irrelevant to the survival of human species.

[@wotireckon]

Thanks Sabine, have a happy new year (if we survive that long).

[@Taladar2003]

3:16 Technically the answer to the question "Would that be bad or not bad?" is always yes (as to any "Would that be x or not x?" question)

[@AnthonyKongSYD]

Exactly what I need to watch on NYE to prepare myself for the next year 😁

[@brianedwards7142]

Yes, Supervolcano: strange visitor from another world who, in the guise of Clarke Caldera, fights a never-ending battle for truth, justice and the upwelling of magma.

[@rerite2]

Love Sabine's sense of humor and puns.

[@friedrichjunzt]

aah some good ol' German optimism on New years eve! 👍 (no sarcasm here, this video is really optimistic by German standards 🤷‍♂️)

[@brothermine2292]

The extinction probability is likely greater than the estimates, due to possible causes of extinction that are being overlooked.

[@aljoschalong625]

I don't think so. The different probabilities only concern the time frame. The probability for extinction is without doubt 100%

[@aljoschalong625]

@@liquidKi You're right!

[@gibbsey9579]

"The biggest risk is our own stupidity".......Spot on. We are not nearly as clever as we think we are..

[@sciagurrato1831]

“Better an end with Horror than a Horror without end.”

[@robertschlesinger1342]

Excellent video. Very interesting, informative and worthwhile video.

[@mymusicmymusic6154]

I love listening to Sabine’s videos. I learned enough to battle people! The funniest part with her sarcasm people think I actually know what I’m talking about! However I seriously don’t know what I’m talking about!

[@fixingyourdystopia7131]

😄 Sabine, you put me a smile on within the first ten minutes, once again! Thanks 👍 A happy new one to you, too!🍾🎇

[@gregmattson2238]

apparently sabine hasn't read about the stanford alpaca AI model. Trained a model that was within 90% of GPT3.5 given a single GPU. There is a LOT of room to make these things a lot better with a lot less hardware.

[@sophiophile]

Stanford Alpaca is a training data set, not a model. The stanford model, trained on the alpaca dataset is available on huggingface (along with others trained on the same data set). If you try some of the models trained on this dataset, and run on a single GPU (like a A10g) on places like huggingface- you'll quickly discover that the 90% performance is on very unrealistic benchmarks of performance that don't compare meaningful to GPT-3.5 (or even 3 or 2)

[@gregmattson2238]

@@sophiophile ok sure.. maybe so. but I still maintain that Sabine is off here. NVIDIA just announced their H100 GPU/TPU, which is estimated to increase the rate of inference here by around 30 times - and it scales linearly with the number of chips that you throw at it. With this chipset, a GPT-4 equivalent can run with 2 H100s at around 1400 watts. And that is one announcement (albeit a big one). They also so happen to have revolutionized the production of these chips by a breakthrough which allows wafers to be etched by light patterns computed by GPUs rather than CPUs, so the chance that this will stay state of the art is slim. Combine that with the alpaca sized datasets and we are likely to see lots of these smaller bots work their way into everything.

[@sophiophile]

@@gregmattson2238 100%. If you want to learn more about all the crazy stuff Nvidia is doing+powering, register and watch some of the videos from Nvidia's GTC conference that just happened. They mention a bunch of what you said (and more) in the keynote, and there are probably 100+ in depth talks on different topics. I recently switched from time series forecasting with ML to customized LLMs (including fine-tuned GPT-3 models, you can't fine tune 3.5 or 4 yet unless you get granted early access), it's a really interesting field.

[@alukata9763]

Well, in regards to climate change: Either we do a controlled collapse of the economy to stop climate change or climate change will collapse the economy. Since the economy will collapse either way, i'd say we take the controlled economy collapse and save a lot of lives that way.

[@maxhubych2443]

Thank you, Sabine, I'm curious about that other kind of extinction you refer to at 1:41. Has this possibility of human extinction been researched? I can fairly well imagine the possibility of doctors fundamentally altering human genetic material to the point where the most successful/favored individuals are no longer closely related to us "organic" humans. I guess this would be a kind of extinction via eugenics. What do you think? Have you come across any research into this?

[@aleksandrpeshkov6172]

Enter Huxley Bros : " 100 + annos in the.... making "

[@Volkbrecht]

Not research, but this is basically what Elon Musk and others spekulate to achieve when they think about starting out towards space. Since Transportation would be scarce, that'd basically mean restarting the species from a small, select sample of highly intelligent individuals, in an environment where genetical engineering may become a necessity.

[@eonasjohn]

Thank you for the video.

[@dushratt]

Sabine's sense of humour is 👌🏾😁 Especially the deadpan delivery of zingers. Can't get enough of it.

[@techworld8961]

Thank you, Sabine, for all the info in the video. Very informative, as always!

[@InfinityBlue4321]

Info and misinfo ( the climate change part)...

[@ckleanth]

19:25 That summary, spot on 😂

[@stephenwright8257]

I am glad you came to the correct conclusion…. Our stupidity is the greatest threat.

[@redbaronsnoopy2346]

Sabine, thank you for all content for our edification & enjoyment. You have a brilliant sense of humor and perspective, and I thank you again for sharing it. I wish you and yours a wonderfully Happy New Year. . . .always looking forward to your next lessons. 🖖

[@joylloyd6636]

Came to this late. The comments make me so despairing. Down-playing the effect of Climate Change is truly staggering. The data show catastrophic change is occuring so much quicker than anticipated. Our stupidity will cause our demise, since we've left it too late to fix.

[@raymondswenson1268]

I worked at HQ Strategic Air Command during the Cold War. I participated as legal advisor to annual nuclear war exercises. It became clear to me that hardly anyone in charge of America's nuclear weapon systems had given any thought to what happens AFTER an initial launch of nuclear weapons. There was definitely NO PLAN to reconstitute Civil government or to help civilians survive the aftermath of massive nuclear strikes on the US. There was no planning by the People who controlled nuclear weapons, and no other Federal agency had plans for it either. I participated in a week long field exercise of responding to a nuclear weapon accident. FEMA participated, but they had no clear plan for even paying for the cleanup of land contaminated with plutonium residues from broken weapons. I explained to them that the Federal Superfund hazardous waste cleanup look law (CERCLA, 42 US Code 9621 et seq) empowered the Defense Department to plan and pay for cleanup of radioactive contamination from a weapon accident, and told them it needed to added to the Federal government manual for weapon accident response. It had not been done years later, so I presented the plan to an American Nuclear Society symposium held in Salt Lake City in 2006.

[@gagarinone]

I recommend that you lecture on this at the Mars Society. Because there will probably be people living on Mars, who will have to come here to Earth and try to clean up after a worlwide nuclear war, and restart the civilization. Please get in touch with Robert Zubrin.

[@Moon_Metty]

Human extinction would be a disaster, because without humans there would be no gobbledygook.

[@7HPDH]

Is surreal to see a scientist like her advertise NordVPN just like all the other KZbinrs 🤣

[@Vastin]

Gotta pay those bills somehow. It reminds me of the 1940-50 radio shows where the narrator would spin off into a spot for some product or other - and then back to our show! :D

[@GeographRick]

I love the topics she covers and how she explains things. Also, her sense of humor is great. /Talk about a light hearted topic like human extinction.

[@jasperlawrence5361]

I don't understand how anyone can believe that autogenocide of some kind is anything but inevitable given the variety and multitude of possible ways we have set in motion. Thanks for addressing the issue.

[@LuisAldamiz]

We like to know we can control what we do, just as we mostly don't get injured when using knives, saws and sledge hammers, or even when driving one of those deadly coffins on wheels we call "cars". Same with nukes, right? 😅

[@matthewparker9276]

Just because there are many ways something could happen, doesn't mean that it will happen. For example, there are many ways I could forget to make dinner on any one day, but I often still eat dinner.

[@grahams1097]

Very amusing, Sabine. Happy New Year from the island in Scotland. If you want to canoe up to my survivalist cave (80 pints of homebrew IPA stashed) let me know.

[@buckrogers3727]

Thanks from Australian Sabine, good luck up there, we’ll be thinking of you!

[@GodfatherXXI]

Human Extinction: How Likely Is It? - 100%

[@deebee4575]

I believe so.

[@chrisdraughn5941]

“On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero.”

[@Jawst]

If we delete India, africa and Russia it would definitely extend our resources and reduce risks...

[@fannyalbi9040]

it is a light hearted topic 😂

[@manofsan]

After I'm dead, I don't care

[@MaGaO]

That _Pirates of the Caribbean_ burn…

[@MichaelLloydMobile]

"Well not too seriously, I'm not good with that." Words to live by.

[@merrymachiavelli2041]

The thing that people don't typically appreciate, and wasn't touched on in this video, is that _extinction_ is orders of magnitude less likely than civilisational collapse. As long as a few hundred individuals survive _anywhere_ humanity has a chance to repopulate. That means 1 village in Nepal, or an uncontacted tribe in the Amazon, or senior government officials in a bunker somewhere - humans live in so many places, and in so many different ways, that wiping out _all_ of us would be very, very difficult. Climate Change wouldn't do it, nor would nuclear war, nor would a typical supervolcano eruption, nor a pandemic. You'd have to at least have something on a level with the KT or Permian mass extinction events - and even then we'd probably have a shot at surviving those.

[@bajsbrev4651]

Indeed, it's industrialized society and it's logistics as we know it that is fragile, not the literal continuation of humanity.

[@aljoschalong625]

I believe a few hundred won't be quite enough. Too much inbreeding. My estimate would be >1000. Theoretically two would do. The evolutionary bottleneck just gets smaller. But this, in a way would also mean extinction - the fewer humans survive the stronger the evolutionary pressure. A new species might arise and homo sapiens would die out. But that doesn't change your argument. Maybe some more extinction events, besides the evolution of a new species of homo: "advanced" bioweapons", nano-robots

[@juanausensi499]

Absolutely. Civilization collapse is both more likely and also more nasty. I mean, complete extinction means nobody would last to complain, but civilization collapse means most of the people dying (that includes you and your beloved ones) and the ones surviving would be living in a hellhole for decades or centuries.

[@Anonymous-df8it]

@@juanausensi499 And every civilization before us collapsed

[@thomasrebotier1741]

I'd say the risks are 100%. The timing, however, is what matters :-)

[@michaelwinter742]

With space travel on the horizon, we may become immune to extinction events.

[@IronKore]

@@michaelwinter742 would a handful of us be enough to carry us forward? Space expansion is being restricted by governments and billionaires. Exploration by foundations/organizations is restricted unless backed by the overlords and not actual worker ants

[@rudra62]

@@IronKore Probably not. A spaceship would need to be extremely large to allow for enough individuals to provide adequate genetic diversity to keep a species alive. However, we can store frozen sperm, eggs, and embryos - which could be made into people when we got to a place suitable for colonization.

[@freeheeler09]

Michael, agreed! Though I’m a botanist and soils guy. Take a look at the Biosphere experiments from the 1990s. We have a hard time understanding why it is hard to restore Earth habitats we’ve degraded, much less creating a habitat ourselves that we can survive in to travel to and terraform other worlds

[@Castal-xo1yz]

@@IronKore Space travel is an extremely difficult task that requires vast resources to accomplish. It’s not something available by default that is being taken away from you by elites. Those governments and billionaires are actually the ones pushing forward space travel so that it might one day be accessible to more and more people. If those resources were equally distributed, no one would be going to space.

[@ericlipps9459]

The greatest dangers will always be the ones nobody sees coming until it's too late.

[@kennethedwards3095]

Ahhh Sabine, you never disappoint. Now what to do for an encore? 🙂🙃

[@Oktokolo]

As much as i like lighthearted episodes purely focussing on uncontroversial trivia like this one, i would also like to watch an apisode about the really serious topics - like how long it still takes until robots that actually clean my home, cook and do the dishes become affordable.

[@Oktokolo]

@NewTube Channel Of course it is speculative - it involves the future. And i don't care about halfassed Roombas. I want the classic house slave - just as a bot instead of a human so i can legally own one.

[@sandramoorewilliams5384]

I love your videos - and your dry sense of humor. Both are brilliant!

[@someguy_namingly]

Great video, although I think it's underestimating the existential risk from AGI a fair bit, especially the "let's just extrapolate this" part. There's a lot of interesting research on AI safety out there :)

[@randomusername6]

Yeah, I feel Sabine didn't do this particular topic justice.

[@Ockerlord]

Her claim is that we won't be able to run AGI at consumer hardware for a few hundred years. a) that seem extremely unlikely to me. b) even if it were true, it doesn't solve alignment in any way.

[@Poth94]

I came for the science talk, I stayed for the puns.

[@Ramkumar-uj9fo]

You mentioned that before KZbin it was stone age with conviction. Nobody will get bored in KZbin technology. 🙏 Thanks you are on it

[@erictaylor5462]

It should be noted that very rare events happen all the time. When I was a little kid someone had booby trapped a playground by putting a 2X4 under the sand with a huge nail sticking up. When I jumped down I landed on this nail driving the nail clean through my foot so the point of the nail was several inches above the top of my shoe. Someone put this board there hoping to injure a random child. And if I had been any other child I would have been badly injured, but there was something very unusual about me. I was (and still am) an amputee. My foot is as fake as Donald Trumps collage degree. Thankfully, amputee children are very rare. When I was growing up I attended school from 1976 until 1988, and in all that time I was the only child in the schools I went to who was an amputee. There was one other amputee in my high school who was missing her arm, but she was in 9th grade when I was in 11th and we never actually met. And I wasn't going to small schools. What are the chances that a booby trap, set to injure a random child just happened to impale the fake foot of a child who was an amputee? How many kids would say it was damn lucky they were "injured" rather than someone else? So rare events do happen. Sometimes it's good luck, sometimes, not so much.

[@KeithCooper-Albuquerque]

Thanks for another great video. I have enjoyed all of your content this year and I look forward to much more next year! Happy New Year to you and yours!