16.3 Critical Chain Project Management

This video is about Critical Chain Project Management For project management simulations specifically aimed at students of project management, visit www.ablesim.com

[@JackVinson]

Thanks for doing these videos. I agree with Aksel Andreassen with the comment about task estimates in the CCPM discussion. CCPM doesn't think people are lying. People operate in an environment where they have to provide the estimates they provide. If we change the system so that they can move faster (reduce multitasking, start fully prepared, relay-racer mode, don't hold people to start-by/finish-by dates, reduced Parkinson, reduce Student Syndrome - as you say, full engagement of the organization and team), then we can change how we do estimates -- ideally those estimates should be much more aggressive. And if we have aggressive estimates, then we need that buffer at the end of the project (and at integration points) to protect the overall project deliverable from the impact of variation in actual execution times.

[@hillviewmews]

Or simply put statistically, , estimates should be given at the 50% Confidence Limit and a buffer contribution is provided to allow for Variability. Nothing to do with dishonesty then if all resources commit to "Relay Race" approach when they have the batton.

[@mnada72]

Thank you very much for the clarity of the concepts you've presented in this video. During my effort to prepare for PMP I searched for some videos to explain CC but didn't buy-in any of them till I found yours. I will plan to watch your complete Playlist :)

[@jzgonzo]

Thanks for the explanation, i enjoyed the critic vision of the critical chain method !

[@axllii]

Mr Bell. Your explanation of CCPM is clear and very understandable. I have a small comment to your explanation of estimation. The estimated task duration should be the 50% probability of completion. The 50% cutting of the estimates is a crude method, which is meant to be used for simpler and less experienced project organisations. The 50% cutting is based on experience data from people's self reported estimates of durations. eight2late.wordpress.com/2008/03/04/on-the-inherent-uncertainty-of-project-tasks-estimates/ The duration estimates are assumed to follow a gamma distribution curve, or a skewed normal distribution. E.g. When I give you an duration estimate, I wish to be about 80% certain of completion. While CCPM wish to have 50% probability estimates. In such cases, experienced individuals' estimates may vary between (very optimitstic) 10 and (realistic or pessimistic) 14 days. Then the 50% probability is between the 10 and 14 days, e.g. 11 days. The exact duration is not vital for the project plan or for buffer consumption. The most important when planning is the task sequence, which must be technical correct and should not change during the project. When using the buffer consumption as a progress indicator, it is important to acknowledge the uncertainty of task completion durations, and how one manage the project! With good management and good people the task may be completed quicker, with better quality (no rework), than with less experienced people and management. For that reason, the buffer consumption is a status indicator to be wisely evaluated by management, and not be considered as exact description of the project. I hope that clears up the duration estimation from the original Critical Chain Book.

[@christianmarvinfernandez1525]

Nice video, learned a lot. thanks!

[@arunjaiswal2566]

thank you for the detailed video sir.

[@rksmith5273]

I have watched several critical chain presentations. Your explanation is by far the best. Not sure I would say that your use of software is best. I watched this video to gain a better understanding of the CC method because I am studying for the PMP. I did enjoyed your teaching method. If the project management world have been doing this for so many years, why hasn't anyone figured out the IS system needed to support CC? And lastly, if you can't find a real example on the internet, then create one that has real world implications. It should be easy for you. Thanks.

[@360nm5]

So so so so good

[@salvatoreshiggerino6810]

11:32 having worked in the shipping industry I can tell you right off the bat that the owner of ship 2 would rather spend an extra three days being unproductive than to know that one of his competitors, ship 1, gets off a day earlier than him.

[@Welcome2TheInternet]

I'm doing my PhD in Singapore and i have PM exam next week. Ironic that the best video on CCPM is from my Alma Mater Coventry Uni :D

[@Welcome2TheInternet]

btw I DID submit coursework early, much to the annoyance of other group project members haha.

[@rubendas6265]

Brilliant !!

[@andrewbell-projectmanageme1434]

Many thanks. Project Management tips weekly - sign up here! ablesim.com/newsletter-information-and-sign-up/

[@yellowperchtastegood]

Great Video thank you so much ...from: some guy @Amazon

[@bjornsandbakk]

Excellent explanation of CC method. Principales are ok with this approach, but cutting duration time 50% is telling people they can't calculate. I believe it must be considered contextually from when theory was brought to life and some time forward perhaps. In these times of increased collaboration and transparency it will negatively impact trust, and then also the project.

[@shyqyridomi862]

Hello Professor, Hope you're well . Just a quick question please. If there is a project that failed due to quality issues caused by the pressure to finish on time (which probably is not enough), which methodology would you use to make things right the second time. Is CCPM worthy to use? Thank you for your time.

[@andrewbell-projectmanageme1434]

Big organisational culture changes are required for CCPM to work. All projects need to deliver TCQ. If as you say the project failed on the Q - was this the most important? Did it deliver T &C ? There will always be a pressure on T to beat competitors and gain economic benefit from the project. AGILE looks to focus on the Deliverables possible in a short time - so for software projects is a good choice. The next time you do a project you should have the evidence of the first poor project to guide the senior managers on timescales and schedules.

[@shyqyridomi862]

@@andrewbell-projectmanageme1434 Thank you very much for your answer sir.

[@JayChiew]

He's said the CC method implies that people aren't honest. This goes to show his understanding of the method is only superficial.

[@andrewbell-projectmanageme1434]

You are correct, my knowledge of Critical Chain is not at a practical level. However I have detailed knowledge of project management and human nature, and therefore stand by my comments that an organisation needs its culture changing if critical chain methods are to be employed. I still believe that there will be some people in the organisation who 'pad' estimates regarldless.

[@JayChiew]

The reason why people are padding is because of how they are measured. Goldratt addressed this more than 20 years ago. I am not disagreeing with you that people do pad. I am just saying your understanding of CC is not comprehensive. You may want to check with others on this understanding.

[@ianheptinstall9041]

I don't think "pad" is a helpful verb, like the idea of "sandbagging", because it implies an unnecessary and almost underhand action. All estimates carry uncertainty that arises from many sources, and the way most prevailing projects are managed and individual's performance is measured simply encourages those responsible for tasks to provide very conservative estimates. Due to the inevitable subjective nature of estimating, one persons padding is another's sensible. The only time you can decide if part of the estimate wasn't needed is after the task is done! CCPM acknowledges this and brings it out into the open, which is a major source of the success it has (another misleading claim in the video - there are hundreds of public domain case studies from all kinds of industries).

[@andrewbell-projectmanageme1434]

For project management simulations specifically aimed at students of project management, visit www.ablesim.com

[@batirk1899]

It won’t work. Consider this, the Resource A (R.A) estimates time to complete Work Package 1 (WP.1) in T time. The PM compresses schedule for WP.1 to T/2 time (plus T/2 buffer). Now, R.A will finish late and use buffer time, or finish in T/2 time and submit incomplete work with hidden errors. R.A knows he/she is now underperforming and feels bad about it. For the next Work Package B, R.A will submit time estimate of 2T. The PM will half it to T and allocate a buffer T. This will allow R.A to comfortably complete WP.2 on time. It will also wise up other resources to use inflated numbers in their estimates. Great, isn’t it? Another problem is, what happens if there is dependency, if R.A has to hand in completed WP.1 to Resource B. As I mentioned above, Resource B will either receive incomplete package on time, or will have to delay working on WP.1 because R.A is late and is using extra time from buffer. Also, this completely goes against principles of agile (self-organizing teams, and what not).

[@andrewbell-projectmanageme1434]

Totally agree. Critical Change requires a corporate culture change, and a believe in the method, and total trust between the project leader and team members.