2012 Election Predictions: ROMNEY vs. OBAMA Matchup

UPDATE New predictions video: • New 2012 Election Pred...

[@Jfg910]

Here's an old prediction 345 Obama-193 Romney.

[@artman40]

You don't know how much these two agree on until you look for a third party candidate.

[@AlternateSteve90]

Good stuff, man. Also, where did you get that awesome soundtrack? =D

[@gozaderadrfunk]

You forgot to mention Gary Johnson who actually will be on the ballot in November and was one of the most successful governors ever to run a state.

[@GeorgiaKev]

Not yet he doesn't. Don't get cocky...this is going to be a tough campaign and it will go down to the wire. It's going to take everything we have to win this election against a highly-motivated, enthusiastic, and extremely well-funded adversaries.

[@shaneusary117]

Indeed. The ever-growing chasm between the "haves" and the "have nots" will widen considerably.

[@jonfan1112]

I love the background music, please let me know what songs are them!! -> I only care about art, politics? Leave it for later.

[@charlesvan13]

The media really screwed the map up. Red is suppossed to denote the left, and blue the right.

[@DavyCrockettFan1]

I know many southern voters. What you don't understand is that when he lost in the South it was a REPUBLICAN PRIMARY. All the people I know did not vote for Romney, however they have told me that they will cast their vote for him in November.

[@WintersHowling]

no he hasn't, mitt is nowhere near the number of delegates required to win the nomination.

[@zengirl4]

Wow,excellent. I'll be watching in 4 years.

[@GuillemotWatcher]

Before Romney came to visit us here in the UK 99% of us didn't know who he was, so you've got to give him credit for making the headlines when he did. He'll be forever known as 'Mitt the Twit'. Every time he opened his gob, he put his foot in it.

[@robertkohl7730]

If Romney is elected, I predict that his claim to "dig America out of the debt hole" We will realize that he didn't dig us out just dug us deeper.

[@vgcq02]

One of the most realistic analysis. Nice job Repubs should focus on keeping the house of reps. If they put more focus on the white house in 2011, they risk losing the house.

[@rayasdfghjkl]

holy shit, the first graph looks identical to the actual map election polls

[@GirlsSociety2]

This was a great debate.

[@hadieislam1]

no. the electoral college does, and their votes are based off what the state wants them to vote for.

[@greenmonko99]

Obama is for "The People." Romney is for "His People".

[@DeadmanInc336]

I dunno. I think the majority of seniors and old people are leaning towards Romney. We all know how stubborn old people can be.

[@holtridge]

I am a white southerner and I will vote Obama. He has done more to help working people than I imagined he would.More southern voters need to wake up and vote their best interest. But sadly they won't vote for a president that is half black.

[@MiFraDeLa88]

Don't write in Ron Paul! Vote for Governor Gary Johnson! He is the official libertarian candidate, and actually has a shot at influencing the election.

[@shaneusary117]

If I had to bet at this moment, I think Mr. Obama will replicate his 2008 results in the electoral college, with the likely exception of Indiana and the possible exception of Michigan.

[@BrokenCrayonStudios]

Romney's path to 270 is looking pretty rough. He literally needs to win every swing state. As of today, Florida alone would put Obama over 270. Romney's only realistic chance is to carry all of the John McCain states, plus Indiana and North Carolina (where he's leading ATM), Florida Virginia and Ohio (all of which currently lean Obama. Even after winning all the major swing states, he is still 4 votes short, and would have to win Iowa, Colorado, or New Hampshire. Romney has to run the table.

[@keribbean]

FORWARD 2012!!!

[@Armando316]

Yep. We could argue that Bill Clinton pretty much set the tone, and now the people are running with it. Now people will have it in their heads of "All of us together vs "Every man for himself" and the undecided voters will make their choice based off that.

[@GeorgiaKev]

I agree. NC will go to Romney. However, if Obama sweeps Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin (a distinct possibility), and then carry one of these three: Iowa, Colorado, or Nevada, he'll have over 270 electoral votes, no matter what happens in VA, NC, or FL.

[@Zamolxet]

193 Votes for Obama 162 for Romney... Look at the likes bar,he still wins!

[@BrookeSpiffy]

I live in FL but I really hope he wins our vote. I don't see how the majority of us Floridians, being senior citizens, would vote for Mittens.

[@HenriqueRMota]

Paper Money can be a solution but the Federal Reserve or Central Banks must be independent. Milton Friedman was a supporter and one of the creators of monetarism and he always disliked the Gold Standard.

[@CoolAfroNinja]

Yeah there are too many people not voting for Obama, just because hes black... It's not that hes Black that makes him the best option, it doesnt matter what he race is. Hes just simply the best option for America.

[@Deb833]

While I agree with that, we've got to act like he doesn't and get out there and vote, among other things.

[@kpsthakkar]

what's the name of the music playing in the beginning of this video?

[@Narunata247]

Idk. I somehow have a feeling that if Romney becomes president, something bad could happen to all U.S citizens.

[@ooovvvj]

The thing is if Romney lose OH he will more likely to lose NH as well. On the other hand if he wins OH then hes got a chance to carry NH as well.

[@neetrab]

Well, I would say his (Obama's) lead in OH isn't all THAT incredibly unexpected. He bailed out those autoplaces there, I believe. He saved hundreds of thousands of jobs over there. Whereas Romney outsourced jobs in Ohio.

[@ndguy2]

The trickle down effect has been shown to work in many cases. For example, under President Ronald Reagan using supply side economics inflation decreased and unemployment decreased as well. I understand we need to tax the wealth a higher percentage than the poor, but not so much that it creates class warfare. I believe that in order to get out of this enormous debt we owe is to stop wasting our money on failing, unnecessary government programs.

[@steppingrock]

Obama will defeat Romney in all debates, but will lose the election

[@GeorgiaKev]

Assuming Romney is the nominee, I don't think Obama will carry either VA or NC this year. NV may also be a bit of a stretch. I agree Obama will sweep the northeast except for NH. Obama will have to win those six crucial midwestern states (OH, MI, WI, MN, IA, and IL) and then he'll need to get either Colorado or New Mexico to get over 270. A loss in any one of those six midwestern states I just listed could doom his re-election prospects.

[@MyMisstoni]

So true. Please people get your ID,get register, and vote!!!

[@tomglavinehof1]

I hope he is on the ballot as an independent so I dont have to write him in, but I will do that if it comes down to it.

[@doodelay]

Not really, obama is leading in the ohio polls which is INCREDIBLY unexpected. CO, IA, and WI are also leaning toward obama with WI more Obama than any of the others. Not sure how, but Obama is pulling it off all over again. At the present day, he is completely dominating the remaining battle ground states. Even Florida is leaning toward Obama, I have NO idea how Romney is going to pull this off.

[@Tsnore]

Can Romneybot win?

[@WeTheHistorians]

actually, Pennsylvania is a swing state, so it could still be a possibility.

[@Deb833]

Hopefully the 99% all agree with that. I know some who are republican and will vote that way no matter what.

[@MrJJsmithy]

If Romney gets Rubio (i think thats his name) as vice prez it will increase his odds with FL and states with large latino populations

[@josephmauro582]

pretty good, 48/50 is better than a few fox news reporters (though its Fox)

[@RoonGang09]

Romney is going to lose worse than what this is predicting. He could be the next McGovern or Mondale when it comes to badly losing an election.

[@shaneusary117]

On reflection, I think you're right on Michigan. The UAW should turn out a big Obama vote.

[@WintersHowling]

no, he's still running.

[@whitesoxrules]

To be quite honest with you, I can see Arizona and Florida turning blue this year's election.

[@dshafesz]

Actually unlike other states, Mormons in Nevada tend to vote Democrat. They're highest Governmental Authority in Nevada is Senator Harry Reed. A Mormon democrat, so it's very likely that the Mormon vote in Nevada will be so divided, that it will be almost non-factor in the presidential race.

[@19EHF]

Mitt Romney: "I stand by the fact that I said it even though I dont know what I said" Imaginary world Mitt Romney: "I stand by the fact I will be President eventhough I won't win the presidency"

[@mj1139]

Watch "When Mitt Romney Came To Town"....and pass it on.

[@BranIL30]

Romney should push a Falt Tax during these next five months.

[@pdoylemi]

Michigan also (sadly) voted overwhelmingly in favor of an anti-gay marriage constitutional amendment in '04, but has still been reliably a Blue state in Presidential elections. I would not guarantee anything based on that one issue.

[@AdamJTannerPhotography]

Loving the pokemon style music lol

[@ndguy2]

that's what's great about America, everyone is given a chance. I am sure that is something that a Conservative like myself, and a Liberal like you can agree on.

[@MiFraDeLa88]

A vote for the lesser of two evils is still a vote for evil. Vote Libertarian and sleep better at night knowing you didn't help vote us into a dictatorship! Gary Johnson 2012!

[@slayer3to10]

Yeah and cat sounds like hat. So they're the same thing, right?

[@Ry-valry]

"Unlikely possibility: Romney takes PA" more like incredibly impossible considering he is losing by twelve points in the polls...

[@Armando316]

Actually, Pennsylvania has been reliably blue for a while. I just cannot see Romney winning there.

[@thecuddlemoose]

I'm a Republican who will vote for Romney and think that you make a good case here. One I have been making to GOP friends. Demographically, presidential elections are tilted toward the Democrats right now. We Republicans have to sweep the swing states to win, the Dems only need to get one or two key "swings" and they get to 270. Depressing, but good vid.

[@20maxilo]

I kinda want Obama to win to be honest, you can't blame a president for something that happened many years back... With Obama us minorities get a chance to be heard and not only are we invisible but more like human beings. I don't agree with abortion or gay laws, but I do agree that all of us in the end of the day are humans and all deserve an equal chance in this world.

[@steppingrock]

@KungfuCow5 Do you really think Romney can beat Obama in a debate? I hope so, but I don't think he possesses the same debating skills as presidents Obama, Clinton, Reagan, Nixon, or JFK. He reminds me of John Kerry.

[@USSSoyuz]

I think the flip flops, and his lack of an ability to articulate his vision for America will kill him in the debate. The president must be a transformational leader, the socio-politcial environment of today is much too volatile for a transactional approach. One of the KEY characteristics of a transactional leader is his/her ability to effectively convey a VISION for an organization (which in this case is the United States). Also I think Ryan will distance himself from him.

[@Deb833]

I understand you're agreeing with me but my friends are not inbred. Just because we don't agree, doesn't mean that I still don't love them all.

[@simpleman72685]

How come no one talks about MO. Ever since 96, MO has been a very close race.

[@willytr3]

Honestly... I don't care who wins. I can't stand political parties. They make everyone an asshole.

[@KungfuCow5]

@steppingrock I know. I was using the word 'No' to deem you previous comment as false.

[@Armando316]

If McCain was President and these current situations were happening, you wouln't be saying that.

[@LittleRockElevators]

Plus Romney is for the Paul Ryan budget. Obama got this election hands down

[@ArkansanMan]

Its the old CNN election night music

[@gibsonsgfan94]

Michigan is definitely going to vote democrat this year. Everything points toward it: large black population, the auto industry bail out, and Michigan has voted democrat in every election since '96.

[@MyMisstoni]

Please,people we cannot let Romney win. He will take us back to the days of Bush, Cheney! Foward, ppl, not backward!!

[@Cardinalsarelame]

There is 0 chance Michele Bauchmann makes it past the field of Republicans in 2016 if Romney loses. Sorry.

[@AbbeyRoadkill1]

Obama's got a great chance to get reelected. Given the economic pain that Americans are suffering, that's no small thing. It's amazing how popular he still is (close to 50% approval) in this tough economy. Romney is a WEAK candidate.

[@jshkendra]

For the sitting President to be re-elected also that election year his has to have job approval rating 50% or better in February of that year his was between 43-47%. The summer will tell a lot. Economist are not predicting a boom the next few months just the opposite.

[@ndguy2]

Conservatives, like myself, do not believe in throwing poor people under the bus. I do believe that a certain amount of welfare should be given to people who simply just fell on hard times, however not so much that it deinsentivizes them. For example: In the 1990s under Bill Clinton, welfare reform was achieved, the economy prospered and many people found jobs, jobs in which they could work hard at and eventually make a decent amount of money. Let's just agree to disagree okay?

[@EnergyTurtle101]

I'm guessing no one has heard of Ron Paul or Gary Johnson. :(

[@TheTeaNinja]

For me it's Ron Paul or Obama. Romney is not an option.

[@Master_Bruce_Wayne]

Thats the most sensible thing i read on here and i'm not even American

[@young1s4u4]

Hey, everybody with any degree of reasoning can see where this election is heading. And if we allow ourselves to become complacent and not put forth the same effort this year to keep him in office, we could have a nightmarish upset!!! So vote people, get out there and vote!!

[@steppingrock]

@KungfuCow5 I agree, and if it were based on debates and not race, Obama will have a field day with Romney.

[@Casioo24]

OBAMA, you are the best President the US has seen in a long time, you will WIN

[@redarrowhead2]

he probably will. Doesn't take a PhD to figure this out.

[@TryTheBLT]

I live 3 miles from Wright-Patt AFB in Ohio (a swing state). Mulitary are averaging 75% for Obama and 25% for Romney. They tell me that Obama has upset some of them because of overruling the generals - forgetting of course that the President is the commander in chief of the armed forces. However most support Obama because he wants us out of Afghan in 2014. Romney wants to keep us there AND increase the defense budget another $2 Trillion which means he's planning on war with Iran and others.

[@TheSkinnyFrog]

So this isn't really an honest prediction, it's a Romney hit piece. Go ahead, laugh it up. Obama will lose.

[@mrmp3guy]

The question is are u better off then the last four years

[@maresv]

You know what the real problem is? The Senate and Congress. We have the heavy conservatives and liberals there. Too many close minded individuals, married with their ways and ideas, and they're there just stop each other from getting things done. Then again, do we want another war? Romney's words are pretty scary and I don't think we can afford another war. So, yes Obama is for sure our "best" choice. :(

[@bigolfudge2983]

Americans aren't stupid enough to actually vote for Romney.

[@youzz33]

Anyone know the name to this song?

[@letmetellyawithladyt]

Obama has a chance in North Carolina just like 2008 but I think it'll slightly go Romney's column. But who knows, we were all surprised in 2008. I'm actually really intrigued to know how AZ will vote and why won't TX vote blue despite the HUGE rise in hispanic population? Sheesh there hasn't been a poll since February. And Obama was leading in South Carolina in the last poll but that was taken in December. The pollers need to step up their game. They need to take one in IN too.

[@NewInternetPlease]

Btw americans please wake up, socalism, democratic socalism, liberalism, arent communism...

[@FURYCHAOS184]

Romney will probably take Indiana and North Carolina. But he NEEDS Florida and Ohio and I really doubt he'll get both.

[@TheJoke97]

It's him or.. *shudder* Romney.. I'm Scottish, so technically I have no say in the matter, but seriously guys? Romney..?

[@kevinchen5709]

I liked the simulation where can i find it?! Also how can you DISLIKE it? Its purely logical and scientific simulation.

[@RacecarsAndRicefish]

Being a democrat in kansas is like being a white person in africa

[@Snake5461]

I actually admire anyone who runs for president because I think that takes real courage. I could never want to become president. It's way too much pressure for me. It would be way too stressful having the responsibility of the entire country's weight on my shoulders. It doesn't matter if you're a democrat or a republican. If you want to take the challenge of running an entire country on so many controversial issues, that means you're really brave in my opinion because it's not easy.

[@VoztokTV]

93 people supports romney that's why now matter who you support this is really informational

[@chrisg0901]

I'll be voting for Romney, but I don't see how he can possibly win. Without the swing states and with only the state's Obama's certain of, Obama's got 268 electoral votes.