2022 Oscars Prediction: STAT STACK - Is the Best Picture race really over?!

Cods is surging to the front and Power of the Dog is slipping behind, but is this race really over? It's time to evaluate all that stats with my annual Oscar Stat Stack, where I decide what film statistically has the best chance of winning Best Picture.
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Check out the Stat Stack experiments from other years:
2021 Stack Stack:
• 2021 OSCARS - Predicti...
2020 Stack Stack:
• 2020 OSCARS - Predicti...
Thanks so much for watching!

[@sasha-stone]

Love it!

[@julianvergara2886]

you should have more recognition! this thing is amazing and exciting. I'm also with the Stat Stack mostly because my mind can't simply conceive CODA winning best picture, but the race this year is impressive.

[@RecoveringChristian]

I clicked bc cute white guy, stayed bc insightful content

[@slc2466]

Agree- this is a fantastic Oscar video every year!

[@michaelreffold3170]

Brain says Power of the Dog, Heart says CODA, Dream Pick would be Drive My Car. I will laugh so hard if after all this Nightmare Alley gets Best Picture.

[@RyanCasselman]

Haha! I did see one of the anonymous ballots mark Nightmare Alley as their number one choice. So….you neeeever know 🤣

[@michaelreffold3170]

@@RyanCasselman To be honest, I'd much rather Nightmare Alley won than half the other BP nominees. I really enjoyed Nightmare Alley and it's not a great year for Oscar nominated films. Last year was way better.

[@JeffAllenHammer]

Wow.... you said you didn't feel great about it. I'm gonna give you credit. I was pretty convinced The Power of the Dog had it between this and your Voter ballot explanation video. Coda just brought too much momentum I guess.

[@Gabrielcezar94]

I changed CODA to TPOTD on my betting pool after watching your video. Thanks 🤧

[@RyanCasselman]

I’m sorry!!! Hope I didn’t lose you any money.

[@moviemazlow]

I love this video, such a good recap of awards stats and what to consider when making predictions. I'm sticking with The Power of The Dog, I'm going down with the ship

[@slc2466]

Love your breakdowns for Best Picture over the last few years. I agree- can't see "Dog" winning Best Director and maybe nothing else, as I think current predictions are showing to be the case. I'm still backing "Dog" for the big one tomorrow.

[@TimeIdle]

Awesome video as always. 9:00 - Telluride - Actually it's 11 out of 12, not 10. That's because while 12 Years a Slave wasn't officially chosen as part of the lineup at Telluride, it did have a special/surprise screening there. Green Book is the only one that didn't screen there. EDITED: The Hurt Locker didn't screen at Telluride as you corrected. So 10/12 is right. If you want to make the film festivals stats 100% (12/12), you can include Toronto with Telluride. Both GB and THL screened there. :)

[@RyanCasselman]

Thanks! I believe Hurtlocker didn't screen at Telluride. So I have Green Book and Hurtlocker down as being that ones that didn't screen at Telluride. :)

[@TimeIdle]

@@RyanCasselman - You're right. I forgot that THL premiered early summer, so it couldn't have screened at Telluride.

[@jianfeishao]

Changing Telluride to fall festival makes a lot of sense, this pattern is just very prominent in the preferential era.

[@gregfeasel5874]

Ryan, excellent job my friend. I am glad you're sticking to your guns. People are picking CODA (as stated) because of its feel-great nature and how well it did at the Guild awards, winning 4 major Guilds. Pretty much everybody picking CODA acknowledges the statistical anomaly it would break: (a) Only three nominations - 1934 was the last time a movie won with less than 5. And that was when there were only 13 categories. 10 of them had only 3 nominees. (b) No BAFTA Best Film nomination. (c) No directing or editing. Hamlet was the last time a film won Best Picture with only 1 of the 3 major non-acting nominations. Generally speaking a movie wins Best Picture with directing, editing, and screenplay nominations. Heck even Daisy got a film editing nomination. Also, Daisy was the most nominated film in 1990. No director nomination, but three acting nominations, writing, and editing nomination. At the BAFTAs, they nominated Bruce Beresford for Best Director. Last year, I posted my best picture algorithm on your last year's video. My accuracy goes back to 1999's Shakespeare in Love beating out Saving Private Ryan. It was 6 questions and 3 potential tiebreaker questions. When I ran through the numbers, CODA and Dog got 3 out of the 6 questions. Belfast and King Richard got 2 out of the 6 questions. Don't Look Up and West Side Story got 1 out of 6. It seems really weird that Dog would lose this thing. Lets look beyond your stack stats and the 12 nominations. It received 8 Oscar nominations in the 7 out of the 8 major categories. Perhaps people are being misled by the WGA win. Drive My Car, The Lost Daughter and The Power of the Dog were not eligible. Dune was the only other Oscar-nominated screenplay.

[@sebastiano728]

The idea with CODA I think is that people didn't really start watching it until after SAG. I think BAFTA made it clear that they loved CODA when they voted it ahead of Power of the Dog in screenplay. I have no doubt that if the film were more widely seen prior to nominations, it would've snagged Editing. Also, think back to the last few years. Basically every time there's this big emerging film that poses a threat in the last few weeks of the race, it has gone on to win. Parasite, Green Book and Moonlight all defeated the early frontrunner. And I called all three of those races incorrectly. The reason I switched to CODA is because I don't want to make the exact same mistake over and over again.

[@RyanCasselman]

Thanks Greg! And great information/commentary as always. I definitely want to shout you out in a future video for creating your own stat formula!

[@RyanCasselman]

@@sebastiano728 yeah… the screenplay win at BAFTA is the most concerning and the biggest pieces of evidence that the love has grown for Coda post-nominations. I’m curious to know how often BAFTA has awarded Screenplay over their Best Film nominee/winner. Also curious what would have happened if Coda was nominated for Best Film at BAFTA. 😬

[@gregfeasel5874]

@@RyanCasselman That would be wonderful Ryan. The biggest stat that favors CODA is my initial two questions. (1) Did the movie win the PGA, DGA or WGA award? (2) Did the movie win at least two major Guild awards from the PGA, DGA, SAG (acting + ensemble), WGA or ACE. Every single Best Picture winner answered yes to the first two questions. But we will see what happens. 🙂

[@vincenzomei1565]

@@gregfeasel5874 Your algorithm is very interesting. How many questions does a film have to answer to be declared Best Picture?

[@garneyjohnson]

I think people voting with their heart leads to an unprecedented victory for the statbreaking CODA. I think there's a timing factor of CODA hitting its momentum at just the right time, and it winning on Sunday will be good for the Academy as far as appealing more to the general public but the legacy for CODA might be better served as "the great little film that almost" rather than getting the Green Book treatment as the Best Picture headscratcher, going from a movie that's universally liked to the "it's not THAT good" stigmatism. I could also see the timing factor being a benefit to Belfast with the impact of global current events, but maybe not enough for a win. I also have to think that there will be so much more exuberane in the room when CODA is announced as Best Picture. Everyone will be shaking their hands in appreciation or throwing up I Love You signs if their hands aren't covering their mouths to hold back emotions, and it will be a memorable moment. The Power of the Dog winning feels like it would be very plainly spoken with all the enthusiasm of polite golf applause.

[@TimeIdle]

"leads to an unprecedented victory"? Has CODA won yet?

[@garneyjohnson]

@@TimeIdleIn many ways it has... but I'm just making a prediction for Sunday

[@osofilms1319]

Lol golf applause sounds about right

[@gustavolemos1908]

So that would be about publicity rather than a fair election. CODA is a remake about a french movie that is much better than CODA, It wasn't even that long ago, and It just went down unnoticed, probably because of lack of publicity.

[@mediterraneanturtle6456]

Great video as always! I predict the Power of the Dog to win BP as well. Do you see an upset in other categories? I see Penelope Cruz getting Best Actress.

[@Psyfoob]

Another great video Ryan! I really love the way you analyze the Oscar race with your videos breaking things down in a way that’s concise, and fair.

[@jianfeishao]

Great video, the one other rule that I've always looked at (not sure if this count as a stat) is that since the preferential ballot era began, every single best picture winner with the exception of one had a metacritic average score higher than 85 (Green Book being the clear outlier at only 69). This year, this would favour POTD (MTC 89) over CODA (MTC 74).

[@RyanCasselman]

Interesting! I didn't know this one. 👍 Thanks!

[@nadinepineault9407]

That video is awesome Ryan!!! Can't wait to see the results!

[@marcochen9117]

another factor for me is that in a time where the oscars want more publicity, the power of the dog is literally the polar opposite to coda, where audiences for the most part really disliked the power of the dog but really loved coda. POTG is lingering around 6.9 on imdb which is really really low, even Roma had a 7.7 and was still considered a critics pick. I think its gonna be a repeat of green book vs roma

[@michaelenglish1992]

The problem is this year it is emotional. People watch CODA and feel good. It won't be remembered as a good choice, but it makes sense that it is what they are choosing.

[@abdimalik.]

CODA WONNNNNN!!! What does this mean for the future of your stat stack?!!!!! Very very SHOOK

[@baraka92]

Just found your channel! Great stuff for Oscar nuts.

[@LD812]

I'm on your ship Ryan! Let's hope we don't sink. TPOTD FTW!

[@RyanCasselman]

Nice to have some company!! We should put on some life vest in the meantime, but welcome aboard! 😆

[@dianamonge4406]

Well, i'm here after the ceremony, waiting for your reaction. Coda completely smashed all stats, incredible to witness. I think we all needed a comforting movie after a hellish year and coda gave us that

[@kassiogomes8498]

And in the future we will look back and laugh at this ridiculous choice. It's just a silly movie with a shallow story.

[@harsh125ami]

Great Video. I am going with momentum/passion over stats and predicting CODA.

[@wbj9058]

Great video!!!

[@weboughtamic]

it really is neck and neck... shocking to see statistically how unlikely a CODA win would be

[@小高叔叔]

Let’s just call this video “The Power of the Stat Stack”👍 Personally I don’t think CODA can be in the nomination of BP in the past years (but somehow it did this year) and I am not quite like the story of TPotD (but it’s awesome in all other parts), so I am rooting for Licorice Pizza to win BP and BOS. All right, I am just dreaming😂😂

[@christinedugas3089]

I'm going to assume this is very scientific and accurate given it puts The Power of the Dog and Belfast as #1 and #2, which is how I'd rank them. If things don't go Power of the Dog/Jane Campion this year, I'd like to see Belfast/Kenneth Branagh. A little surprised at the utter lack of love for Nightmare Alley. It has its problems and was a good 1/2 hour too long, but still. Not sure how Don't Look Up is ahead of it.

[@rudulph785]

amazing video. also, great comparison with Moonlight. Moonlight had a great chance. It had everything! CODA is really off... 7 more hurdles than POTD..?

[@georgeehret3480]

This thing has been driving me absolutely crazy, but one thing that really makes me think CODA might actually pull it off is the reception that Power of the Dog has received compared to CODA. Laugh at me all you want, but in most of the anonymous ballots, I see people saying that they appreciated PotD but didn't love it. I feel like only three or four of those voters actually really loved PotD. Some of those same voters proceeded to rank CODA very highly. The lack of passion for Power does seem to be reflected in certain ways. Why is the only major guild that it won the DGA? Why did it only win two awards at BAFTA when it could've won five or six? On that note, why did CODA beat it in Adapted Screenplay at BAFTA where the lineup is literally exactly the same as the Oscars lineup for Adapted Screenplay? Why are some of the awards that are supposed to be the easiest for PotD to win not going to PotD? I don't have any other explanation. The stats are obviously more in PotD's favor which does make me second guess myself, but I can't help but feel that this overwhelming feeling that I see amongst these voters and what I've been hearing does make me think that CODA may actually pull it off. Am I confident? No, and you shouldn't be either. But there's certain things with PotD that I can't get past in the time I've been thinking about this over the past week or so.

[@94dfk1]

I'll also add that many voters may actually put PotD towards the bottom of their ballots, since I could see several Academy members viewing it as "too cold/slow/boring/all three".

[@AmnistY21]

@@94dfk1 Actually most voters put TPOTD on second and third places in those anonymoys ballots.

[@stephen6799]

I know it's a long shot but I am hoping Coda and Power of the Dog split enough votes that Belfast wins. It was such an amazing film.

[@joleyeytel3699]

My two favorite films of the year were Dune and Nightmare Alley. However, I knew they didn't have a chance. Dune will not get it because it is part 1. Nightmare Alley is beautiful when compared to the original. It is a great film noir. There are some brilliant choices, production design and cinematography, but it is not Del Toro's best work. It is also too soon for him. He just won for Shape of Water (2 years ago) The academy will not give him another win yet. Coda is The Little Miss Sunshine of this year. It is the little movie with a big heart. If it wins, I will be surprised. It is not the type of film that the academy goes for. The Power of The Dog is still the front runner. Dramas always get more attention from the academy then comedies. It is also an original story that deals with issues that are very topical at the moment. I think my money is on Power of The Dog to win.

[@emiliobello2538]

I hope King Richard or Dune or Drive My Car wins. They should have nominated Encanto, Flee, and Summer Of Soul for Best Picture

[@southendonseaarts]

For me the two front runners are Power of the Dog and Belfast Coda will likely get acting awards but not Best Picture.

[@theqrm]

DuDe...I had finally come to accept Coda as the big winner until I saw this video. Now I have to go get a drink.... :-)

[@ushmeychakraborty2678]

Power of the Dog will win

[@monicamerle1417]

Which of these movies would be your personal choice? Would like to see a video using your own preferential ballot 😁

[@itsybitsy999]

I read somewhere that no film that won both SAG and WGA has lost Best Picture. Not sure if that's true but if it is, that is a huge stat in CODA's favour.

[@RyanCasselman]

Hmm interesting...I know Little Miss Sunshine won WGA and SAG, but lost picture. But since 09, by my count, I have three times WGA and SAG matched up (Parasite, Argo, and Spotlight)...all lead to picture. Inteeeeresting. 🧐

[@itsybitsy999]

@@RyanCasselman You are right, sorry, I should have said since the introduction of the preferential ballot.

[@karenpaolalopes9524]

It’s not a stat but I keep thinking about the international voters: imagine an Academy member from France being like “okay Hollywood you made another remake from my country and now want to give it an Oscar? Not on my watch!” Hahahah My point is the international members are not being heard from the guilds of America and they can make a difference so I think TPOTD will do better with them, but I can be wrong!

[@RyanCasselman]

That's actually something I have thought about as well. The international voter's influence has shown in the nominees as well.. Drive My Car got in for picture, director, and screenplay. The Worst Person in the World for Original Screenplay. Maybe there's enough votes from the "old" Academy and American voters to push Coda through, but I agree, I don't think majority of international voters will be as charmed. We'll see soon enough though. Thanks for bringing up the international voters!

[@karenpaolalopes9524]

@@RyanCasselman thank you Ryan! Keep it up the good!!

[@datdame]

I agree.

[@sambaum6362]

What were the tie breaker stats?

[@avichristiaans9058]

It's going to be Belfast, the same way Green Book won against ROMA. All these stats in its favor, added with that Toronto People's Choice Award.

[@beccabex321]

I'm pretty much always hoping for an upset; it's so much more fun

[@alexmeyer5260]

If there is an upset, I hope it's Belfast.

[@irenepowell4343]

Power of the Dog. I like dogs. No, really, I believe your stats and it’s just a better movie even if I didn’t “enjoy” it as much as CODA.

[@bruh_hahaha]

Great video! ….but still secretly rooting’ for DUNE. 😁🍿

[@RyanCasselman]

Dune is likely to win the most Oscars of the night! :)

[@ayazmalik5260]

I think Coda is going to win. And Jane Campion Will take Best Director for POTD…

[@eirikmatias]

Great video, subscribed! What was the Sudden Death tie-breakers btw?

[@RyanCasselman]

Thanks Eirik, I’ll be sure to cover this is a future video for sure. It was a pretty elaborate process

[@tinahesse186]

In my opinion Power of the Dog is such a weird movie lol. But if it wins then it will not surprise me. But I'd rather Coda win.

[@Alex-go1sl]

I respect going down with the ship but also have some integrity while doing so XD you don’t feel comfortable doing it and you explain why but imagine how the people of the titanic (since you used that comparison - which already you’re counting as a lose since the titanic DID sink…) would feel about it? It’s not that deep hence XD but it’ll be interesting to see your reaction if POTD does hold the stats and wins, and you had no real faith in your own stats. See ya Sunday :)

[@saraalessi]

What film do you think is gonna win for best adapted screenplay? I really love your channel

[@RyanCasselman]

Most likely Coda. It’ll likely pair up with Picture. So you can put down whoever you’re picking for Picture. Or just play is safe with Coda.

[@ekhamp1]

deep down...you know it's CODA! LOL

[@RyanCasselman]

Haha. Deep down…I do think it’s Coda. But my instincts have served me wrong many times…hoping the Stat gods work their magic.

[@jefnyssen1937]

Coda really saying fuck stats

[@RyanCasselman]

Seriously. Coda: We gonna win Best Picture. Us: I don’t know about that, the stats say otherwise. *knocks over my Jenga blocks* Coda: Fuck your stats.

[@jayswift9945]

Your methodology gets the winners correct, but it also gives lots of points to films that come nowhere near to winning Best Picture, or even any other categories. Just in the last two years, your runners-up were ties between OUATIH/Irishman and PYW/TOTC7. Two of them won nothing, while the others likely weren’t runner up on Oscar night. I’d say that the stats you use favor technically impressive films that are respected enough to get lots of industry nominations, but ultimately end up largely being category filler… kinda like POTD this year. I’m also wondering if you underestimated CODA. You combined “WGA, PGA, or DGA win,” but doing so fails to acknowledge that CODA won 2 of those. It’s PGA win is particularly important, since they’re the only other voting body that uses a preferential ballot. You also combined “SAG Ensemble win or multiple SAG noms,” which fails to acknowledge that CODA is the only film that meets both criteria. I’d also consider adding an Oscar Screenplay stat here. It’s actually more important than an Oscar Director nod, which you included. Titanic is the only BP winner since at least 1975 to miss a screenplay nom. In fact, more BP winners since 2009 have won a writing Oscar (9/12) than a directing (7/12), acting (6/12), or technical category (5/12). Obviously you can’t distribute points for winning the screenplay Oscar since that hasn’t happened yet, but it counts for something that 2 of this year’s nominees missed writing nominations.

[@RyanCasselman]

The stat stack is definitely a working progress. I have to get creative with the stats to get over the 80% accuracy rating. And new stats are brought up every year in context to the current race. I’ll definitely look closely at adding that screenplay stat. It’s tough to include stats about wins, because as you mentioned, we don’t know technically who’s going to win that category. But definitely will look at adding a screenplay nom stat, as well as refine the formula over the next year. Very much a working progress. Thanks!

[@Awardswatch]

The Telluride stat comes with a bit of a caveat or possibly in need of a correction. It's actually 11/12 with Green Book as the only outlier since 2009 and the preferential era (2007, outside of that). Since the 2020 edition of the festival was canceled but we know the actual lineup of films it would either need to be removed (making it 10/11) or count since Nomadland was scheduled to play there had the festival gone on as planned. That said, between this video and your preferential ballot this is basically porn for me. 😛

[@RyanCasselman]

Thanks! Big fan of yours actually. I have Hurtlocker and Greenbook as being the outliers for the Telluride stat. Let me know if that’s not accurate though. And yeah, there’s definitely some wishy-washiness surrounding the Telluride stat and nomadland. I’ll definitely reevaluate that stat next year.

[@Awardswatch]

@@RyanCasselman Oh damn, I feel DUMB. Mark is right and you're right. I don't know why but I almost always forget that THL had that super weird rollout where it premiered at Venice and Toronto 2008 and skipped any fall 2009 fests since it was a summer release. Wild year.

[@nicholasgarcia6099]

#moonknight#wed#3days

[@filipealbertino1234]

I do hope that The Power of the Dog wins

[@marcor7044]

CODA just doesn´t have enough nominations for Picture.

[@RyanCasselman]

Probably a stat I should have mentioned in the video. You have to go back to 1932 to find a film that won Best Picture without at least one nomination below-the-line.

[@9114SouthCentralAv]

It’s over. Coda will go 3/3

[@michaelz9892]

CODA was cute. CUTE. CUTE CUTE CUTE.

[@SohailJafar1]

IMO, I don't want Coda to win, per say - I just want The Power of the Dog to lose.

[@PretentiousStuff]

ok

[@ahmedkamal7095]

babe why are you shaking dont tell me is it that ryan guy

[@berkcansevgi2714]

and you were wrong

[@lindieriksen1968]

well, now what? lol

[@RyanCasselman]

We regroup! Make the stat stack stronger by revising it and try again next year 🙂

[@LynRodriguez123]

i REALLY want CODA to win. i think it deserves it but i also want to see overly angry people on film twitter screech about it.

[@JW-ff8uf]

Great video!