Oscar Science | Formula to Predict 2025 BEST PICTURE Nominees!!!

[@ModPopCult]

I LIVE for these Best Picture Formula videos. They scratch an Oscar itch in my brain I cant explain 😂

[@RyanCasselman]

😂😂 Glad you enjoy them!

[@Choekaas]

First of all, I hope that you and your friends/family in LA have all been safe in the disastrous wildfires. Second of all, fantastic video as always! This is a visually pleasing chart. Very surprised that Wicked did so poorly. I really liked that screenplay token. Well thought of having 2 out of 3 count. Makes sense! Now I feel bad about my lineup since I have A Real Pain and Sing Sing for the last two spots in my predictions. With your reasoning, it makes sense to have A Real Pain and Nickel Boys.

[@RyanCasselman]

Thank you so much! I’m lucky to not live near where the fires are. So very safe. Ultimately, if Sing Sing is what your gut says, I totally could see it. We can only speculate only so much what happens behind the scenes. I’m glad you enjoy the videos! And thanks for the feedback with the chart and all 🙂

[@yuri6561]

Watch out for I’m Still Here!

[@ericocardoso3612]

Acertou miserável…

[@Isauramattos]

I’m Still Here!

[@Netoche73]

Yeeeeeiiii!!! So happy to see U again!! Your videos are the best of the awards season!!!!

[@RyanCasselman]

@@Netoche73 Thanks!!!

Im Still Here ❤❤❤

[@torrespark]

I’m new here, just found your channel a month ago and I absolutely love this dynamic! Amazing work! New award season tradition for me

[@axr7149]

Here is a stat I saw someone point out: any film that got both a Globe and PGA Best Picture nomination always made Oscars BP lineup whenever there were fixed 10 nominees. SEPTEMBER 5 got both.

[@RyanCasselman]

@@axr7149 THAT is a scary stat. 😅

[@noseofsauron236]

24:26 "I'm not a doctor but I play one on KZbin" I'm still going Sing Sing over Nickel Boys

[@moondoggy02116]

Having just seen Nickel, I would definitely choose Sing Sing for so many reasons. But I really miss the sliding scale. I find it much harder to predict no. 9 and no. 10 than to say, “You know what, the cutoff will be eight this year.” For the few years they had that, my prediction record was immaculate.

[@oskari7121]

Good stuff. I would personally maybe erase the PGA+DGA combo point, because in the expanded era it's pretty impossible to get a DGA nomination without PGA (no movie has done it)

[@RyanCasselman]

@@oskari7121 yeah, the point does feel a bit repetitive and was considering cutting it. Thanks!

[@michaeljosephpierce1]

Ryan - I love watching this. I am watching the SAG screeners now and I am thinking right in line with your math!

[@MrGoat-cd8lt]

Clicked faster than I ever have clicked on a KZbin video

[@gambasTV]

Always the best video of the Oscar season!

[@lawaraya]

Love the improved production value

[@slc2466]

Fantastic overview as always by Dr. Casselman. Personally, I'm crossing my finger "Sing Sing" gets that tenth slot.

[@Noah-pq8rv]

The best Oscar videos are your Oscar Science videos

[@nadinepineault9407]

This is like the Christmas day of the Oscar season predictions!

[@tonyg76]

Interesting. Great job!

[@joshmartin9367]

Yaaasss we were waiting!! Is there a Bafta noms reaction video?

[@RyanCasselman]

Unfortunately, I had to work when BAFTA noms dropped. I’ll definitely react to the winners of BAFTA and Academy Awards nominations as well! Cheers!

[@marcobrca]

so interesting .Ryan is genius. glad to see Anora is on the top

[@djaycup7754]

It won't happen, but wouldn't be awesome if Emilia Pérez didn't make Best Picture.

[@crystall.411]

:( Clayton Davis said in AMA that the voters he has talked to love it and the film is a favorite among the older crowd especially. He also mentioned he was surprised the number of voters that either have not seen or finished films like The Brutalist, Nickel Boys, are down on The Substance (the older voters do not like horror and he is worried for Demi and Coralie despite their precursor noms/wins) and are unsure about Sing Sing.

[@jolo2200]

You obviously have very bad taste.

[@cm5575]

@@jolo2200you obviously have no taste

[@ttaitt]

@djaycup7754 Because it’s 10 slots, it’s guaranteed. But if it was 5, there’s no way I’d include it.

[@cm5575]

@@ttaitt if it was 5 slots I would be predicting it to make it. The industry seems to love it and the attitude online seems to be having no impact. People are predicting it to get the most Oscar nominations this year.

[@jonathanvelazquezph.d.2719]

Very interesting, thanks!

[@ashleepradella4912]

Ummm ok obsessed with this!!!! Feeling vindicated I have A Real Pain at 9 and you’ve convinced me to switch out Sing Sing for Nickel Boys!

[@RyanCasselman]

I can honestly say, I have NO faith I'm correct. If your gut says Sing Sing, I'd say go for it because it's so close I think. This experiment is definitely within the margin of error. :)

[@mahimahi9135]

Drive My Car wasn’t in the Golden Globe Drama lineup, but it got BAFTA nominations for Director and Screenplay. It didn’t receive DGA or SAG nominations, yet it still landed Best Picture, Director, and Screenplay nominations at the Oscar so BAFTA line is more important than DGA. Triangle of Sadness was in golden Globe Comedy.

[@RyanCasselman]

@@mahimahi9135 Right. I have a point reserved for situations like Drive My Car getting in those categories. Currently, I can’t justify saying BAFTA is more important than DGA because of an example or two though. For example, since 2015, DGA has NEVER missed in Picture..45/45. But BAFTA Best Director to Picture crossover is only 35.

[@Richmond.Reviews]

How would you do the tie breaker just out of interest? Also I’ve put Sing Sing in over the Nickel Boys as I think that Sing Sing has more hype and potential other awards than the nickel boys

[@sasha-stone]

A fact to know is that for nearly all of their existence, the Golden Globes were 90 lifetime members who rarely changed. But last year there were 300 new members. That makes them not as easily predicable.

[@percyweasley9301]

Thanks Sir 🙂 for the great class 😌 -- an Northeast Indian fan..

[@DaveNetWorld]

Love this concept Ryan. Kudos to the dedication and amount of time spent presenting this for us. Although it happened last year, I'm not going 10 for 10 with PGA for Best Picture; there are just too many variables this season. I do think A Real Pain is in 9th position. Looks like Kieran Culkin is poised to sweep this season and it would be strange for him to do so if the film wasn't nominated for Best Picture. 10th spot for sure comes down to Nickel Boys, September 5 & Sing Sing. It really depends on which support nominations each receives. But, if I don't think we go 10 for 10 then I have to exclude September 5. With the extra voting window due to the devastating wildfires and the emotional impact it's had, I think voters may lean towards movies & performances that lift their spirits. I don't think there's a more inspirational movie than Sing Sing. Therefore, I'm giving it the 10th slot based on that feeling above statistics. I'd also look out for Clarence Maclin in Supporting Actor. It may also give the movie & both Colman Domingo & Clarence Maclin a boost when the final voting period begins.

[@RyanCasselman]

Thanks Dave! I think your logic makes A LOT of sense. I wouldn’t be surprised if Sing Sing makes it. And when in doubt, leaning on PGA is a good move. Good luck!

[@gregfeasel5874]

Great stuff Ryan! I thoroughly enjoyed your video. Those 10 is what I came up with. Anora, ACU, Conclave, Emilia Perez, and Wicked dominated the major Guild nominations. The Brutalist winning 3 Globes + getting a PGA and DGA nominations, makes up for its weakness at SAG and ACE. Dune 2 and ARP did just enough. Both had PGA, WGA, and ACE nominations. Both have their superpowers. D2 with the technical achievement and ARP with Culkin's awards success. Culkin didn't just win the Globe, he's been winning the majority of the critics prizes. For the last two, it gets very tricky. The Substance got the PGA and ACE nominations. If eligible, it probably would have sneaked in at WGA. Demi Moore's win at Globes was huge. That increased the film's visibility with the Academy. Nickel Boys and September 5 did receive a Globe Best Drama nomination. That is huge. Very rarely do they miss a Best Picture nomination, especially in the BP expansion era. Plus, both films have that "importance factor" on their chest. We're going to see at least one of those just missing. My feeling is they keep The Substance and Nickel Boys. NB has done quite well with the major critics' groups with picture, director, and adapted screenplay. Seems like it could be the next Tree of Life, Phantom Thread, or Drive My Car.

[@deneme5721]

"My feeling is they keep The Substance" , wasn't The Substance in Comedy / Musical? It will get in the Oscar line up but it wasn't in Golden Globe Drama.

[@gregfeasel5874]

@@deneme5721 Yes, TS has been classified by the Globes and ACE as being a comedy/musical. We're all implying that the Academy favors dramas over comedies. For me, TS getting in at PGA and ACE, and looking great in the critics awards, makes it a hard to pass up as a BP nominee.

[@globalfilmpaul]

Obsessed with this. Planning to start to do something similar for Best International Feature Film

[@rachel_dawn_amber]

I wouldn’t be surprised if I’m Still Here got in

[@RyanCasselman]

@@rachel_dawn_amber would LOVE that!!!

[@TM-im6wk]

Thinking this too....I'm Still Here in both BP and International Pic and actress.

[@GolgloDenbe]

Da 5 Bloods got Critics’ Choice, AFI (and NBR), and SAG Ensemble. On paper, it looked like it had two, three 'stickers,' but in the end, all it got was Best Score. Some of your criteria feel so made-up and misleading.

[@RyanCasselman]

No experiment is out there that can explain every nuance of an Oscar race. I try to be as fair as I can while trying to make sense of upsets. The formula isn't perfect, nor can ever be perfect. Nightmare Alley practically only got CC, AFI, and NBR scoring only two points and still got in Best Picture. There will always be outlieres. The year for Da 5 Bloods, this is the score: Nomadland - 13 The Trial of the Chicago 7 - 9 Promising Young Woman - 8 Minari - 7 Mank - 6 Sound of Metal - 4 Ma Rainey's Black Bottom - 4 The Father - 3 Judas and the Black Messiah - 3 One Night In Miami - 3 Da Five Bloods - 3 Next year, I'll walk through more why I decided on the criteria by bringing up certain stats and what not. And I'm always open and often take suggestions.

[@JeekayTenn]

yes it would be much better to at least apply this to previous years to prove this works

[@RyanCasselman]

@@JeekayTenn the goal for me is not to prove this works per say. I personally, haven’t found a method that is 100% and academy is ever-changing. It’s just a fun way I like to make predictions. You can check out the video from two years that shows the results from previous years though if your curious to see the results of other years. Cheers!

[@FriendsOfDorothyEmmyOscarTony]

Obsessed with this. One note…I feel like the screenplay logic isn’t entirely fair given how many films were ineligible at WGA this year

[@jolo2200]

Dear youtuber , you forgot many important other prizes at the cannes film festival grand prize for emilia perez and best actresses and best original screenplay for the substance

[@davi_melamed]

I don’t feel good predicting “Nickel Boys” AND “September 5” as the last 2 spots together, but I might just do that. Also, “A Real Pain” is very likely winning an acting category, which doesn’t happen many times without a best picture nom. But I should watch out for “Sing Sing”. I don’t know what to do.

[@classicmiriam]

We’ll see how this experiment will go. There is a clear top 5. A Complete Unknown appears better odds as far as Winning Awards. The Brutalist has actually done better when it comes to best Director and Actor. Plus has good chances in Cinematography, Production Design, and perhaps Score. Although its biggest problem is Editing. It is incredibly rare to win picture without a screenplay nomination. Although it did happen twice in the last decade. Close to 3.

[@TwoPeasonaPod]

Seeing this after I recorded my predictions got me like…*insert Ben Affleck hello darkness my old friend meme*

[@duanein3d]

Absolute love these but we need it for Best Actress cuz idk wtf goin on 😭

[@joabbott8845]

Emilia Perez is present but Challengers isn’t. We’ve failed as humans.

[@madelineashton5079]

Using the Golden Globe Drama 6 films ( wrong anyway you need to add all the films at globes, we are not in the 90's ), SAG Ensemble 5 films, and BAFTA Best Film 5 is wrong to begin with .You need to consider the BAFTA Best Film longlist. Last year, the Oscar 10 was the same as the BAFTA longlist. This year, it’s quite likely that 8 out of the 10 Oscar nominees will be like the BAFTA longlist. In 2023, 8 films from the BAFTA 10 went on to receive Oscar Best Picture nominations. You can’t apply a 5-film lineup to a 10-film lineup as a result. Some films get disproportionately high numbers of 'stickers,' while others get fewer. Even though they fewer sticker, we still know make it to the Best Picture lineup.

[@StephenBarnardHeathHopkins]

I like how you get dressed DURING the video. Like Mister Rogers

[@purekinema]

Only two films in the last 20 years got the September 5 combo of PGA and GG Drama and missed the Oscars (Foxcatcher and The Ides of March). 82 films got this combo, so 97.5% of those who got it made it in. In contrast, there are 15 films that got the Sing Sing combo of Critics Choice/AFI/NBR and missed the Oscars in the last 20 years (most recently Da 5 Bloods). I haven't counted the total number of films that got this Critics/AFI/NBR combo, but the max possible is 200, and it's almost for sure closer to 150, and probably less, which would mean that less than 90% of films that get this combo make it in. And I don't think A Real Pain or Nickel Boys have any stats that are as strong as either of these combos.

[@zanifriz489]

Class is in session!!

[@sasha-stone]

I totally disagree that Emilia Perez will win Critics Choice. I think Anora wins.

[@RyanCasselman]

You might be referring to a part where I’m talking about Emilia Perez winning Critics in the International category. I give a point to International films that win at Globes and Critics Choice. I think I forgot to emphasize the international category. My bad. 🙂

[@sasha-stone]

@@RyanCasselman No MY bad. Great job.

[@dragosolariu6616]

All the Globe Best Picture nominees should get a sticker, especially since the Oscar Best Picture lineup consists of 10 films. Limiting stickers would only make sense if there were only 5 films at the Oscars. Films are often moved to Comedy/Musical for tactical reasons. Do you even follow the awards season?

[@dj71162]

Yeah, but they also nominate nonsense to make up the numbers that have no chance of getting in at the Oscars, so I just think he was leaving unnecessary films out.

[@calvinkhumalo9780]

He explained that there isn't a strong correlation between that category and the BP line-up. This year was particularly strong for that category but usually they struggle to get 6 worthy nominees. Look at the best actor category this year for example.

[@RyanCasselman]

As explained by others already... I don't award points to ALL Comedy/Musical films because the correlation is much weaker than Drama. For example, since 2015 43 out of the last 45 Golden Globes-nominated Drama films went on to be BP nominated. In the Comedy/Musical category, only 20 out of 45 got nominated.

[@shanavecchio]

I think I still want to put Sing Sing in over Nickel Boys. But I won't be surprised if you go 10/10 again!

[@Aaa-jk6pf]

We need this for supporting actress pleaseeeee

[@Ogie-iz3kj]

The overhyped Ano$$ and Emilia will probly get boat loads of nominations 😁

[@TheHannahcast]

Wait, didn't Sing Sing get Screenplay nominations at both Critics Choice and BAFTA?

[@RyanCasselman]

Screenplay point goes to films that are nominated twice at WGA, BAFTA, or GG. If that WGA ineligibility concerns you though, I can run a tie-breaker between Sing Sing and Nickel Boys.

[@TheHannahcast]

​@@RyanCasselmanOoooooohhh I'm sorry. 😅 I forgot Critics Choice wasn't a part of that this year, my bad.

[@berkcansevgi2714]

@@RyanCasselman Such a dated idea giving stickers to only Drama Golden Globe nominees, especially since Comedy/Musical nominees also get nominated at the Oscars and international film like Parasite managed the BP oscar and Roma got oscar nominations. Almost every year one film that got SAG ensemble misses BP ( possible not this year ). this experiment is only confirming top 5 film. You eliminate EFA awards and nomination for international films.

[@gregfeasel5874]

It did. However, SS didn't show up at PGA, DGA, SAGE, or ACE. Those are huge misses.

[@RyanCasselman]

@@TheHannahcast So IF you counted that Sing Sing screenplay nom from CC. And Nickel Boys and Sing Sing entered the tie-breaker round. Sing Sing comes out on top. So....yeah. If Sing Sing makes it at 10, it would shock me in the slightest. It's neck and neck.

[@cleverdouradomarinho904]

No mention to Fernanda Torres's I'm still here?

[@brasov6243]

Because we are fed up with your Fernanda Torres and I'm still here.

[@renatofarias146]

​​@@brasov6243And we’re not complaining about your Anora, the brutalist or whatever enthusiasm, so let us Brazilians cheer for our own, alright?

[@lolalolalola3801]

Boo hoo

[@dj71162]

Ryan, that lab coat really suits you.

[@declansullivan7810]

Do we think the Brutalist’s AI use will affect its chances or no?

[@brasov6243]

AI? that explains the film is so awful.

[@MoyAmaro]

It should. Especially because accents should be on the actors to be able to do. Feels like cheating to me

[@Leesword1]

People can keep doubting Anora all they wamt lol. Its strong!!

[@alexstanton83]

I have 9 from the PGA nominees, I will leave out September 5 and will include Sing Sing

[@axr7149]

I think SEPTEMBER 5 will score some surprise nominations. I’m especially keeping an eye on Supporting Actor, and I wouldn’t be surprised if one of either Peter Sarsgaard or John Magano makes the lineup. Usually there is at least 1 acting nominee that makes it in without any precursors, and I’m interested in seeing who it’ll be.

[@leannebrown02]

That definitely doesn't happen often at all. It happened with Andrea Riseborough because of a very unusual social media campaign. I'm pretty sure that's the only time it happened since the start of the decade. Sarsgaard and Magaro won't make it. Edit: Alright, I'll eat my words, it's happened a couple of times. It's still very unlikely though given that September 5 is probably missing Best Picture

[@axr7149]

@ It has happened the last 3 years in a row actually. America Ferrara for BARBIE just last year, Andrea Riseborough the year before, and Judi Dench for BELFAST the year before that.

[@gregfeasel5874]

Yes, I think S5 could very much get in for Picture, Director, Original Screenplay, and Editing.

[@DisqueteseClaquetes]

@@axr7149 Ferrera had Critics Choice

[@DisqueteseClaquetes]

@@leannebrown02 It happened with Judi Dench, Penelope Cruz, Jonah Hill, Max von Sydow

[@berkcansevgi2714]

The DGA and PGA combo sticker is unnecessary for these made-up rules. Only giving stickers to Drama Golden Globe nominees is such a dated idea, especially since Comedy/Musical nominees also get nominated at the Oscars and international film like Parasite managed the BP oscar and Roma got oscar nomination. Honestly

[@RyanCasselman]

@@berkcansevgi2714 you seem like a blast at a party. I’m not sure you noticed, but I did give points to films from Globes Comedy category that scores a director nom. This is to prevent films like Palm Springs and The Prom from getting points equivalent to a Globes Drama. A lot of these points created are based on track record. So if Globes Drama has a way better track record than Comedy, it doesn’t make sense to me to weight it the same. And if you ran this experiment the year of Roma and Parasite, this experiment would have them being nominated, so I’m not sure what the point is. But I’m always open to hearing suggestions based on stats I should consider. Cheers buddy!

[@maxpaynethehero]

I am so interested to see what you come up with. Let us know when you have a video up.

[@madelineashton5079]

@@RyanCasselman We’re trying to figure out the Oscar 10. Let me repeat-Oscar 10. You’re only using the Golden Globe Drama 6 films, SAG Ensemble 5 films, and BAFTA Best Film 5. But you need to consider the BAFTA Best Film longlist. Last year, the Oscar 10 was the same as the BAFTA longlist. This year, it’s quite likely that 8 out of the 10 Oscar nominees will come from the BAFTA longlist. In 2023, 8 films from the BAFTA 10 went on to receive Oscar Best Picture nominations. You can’t apply a 5-film lineup to a 10-film lineup. Some films get disproportionately high numbers of 'stickers,' while others get fewer. Regardless, we still know which films will make the Best Picture lineup. Your criteria don’t make sense, mate

[@RyanCasselman]

@ I’ll look at BAFTA long-list in previous years and see how it affects the results. If I added a point to ALL BAFTA long-list, it doesn’t affect the 10 films selected this year. But, even with your snarkiness with repeating yourself, I’ll still take the constructive part in consideration for future years. Cheers!

[@claireindigo1200]

As you said, it’s made up so why are you taking it so seriously??

[@RodneyDollar]

Still think wicked has a chance

[@tao8513]

17:24 Ah yes, Daniel Kalewa

[@osofilms1319]

That moment you realize Challengers is not on this list but Queer is 😖 lol

[@erickalonsochaconmata9683]

This video should be called: "Why Anora should be nominated and win". Obviously it was your favorite movie of the year, because you fixed the rules to award it the most points.

[@RyanCasselman]

Nah, you wouldn't believe it, I'm not truly emotionally invested in who wins. I'd much rather get a prediction correct for a film I dislike. Also, the experiment was created two years ago. Cheers!

[@megancarroll]

I’m hoping for sing sing

[@michaeladkins6]

Once again, over credit to the Globes.

[@13frank13]

I think I'm in love with you

[@victor83]

You forget to mention that the Academy could nominate only 8 or 9 movies for best picture! That was the case from 2011 until 2020 ! And, of course, excellent presentation of that magic formula !!!

[@crossaffliction]

The rules are changed, it's a guaranteed 10 since 2021.

[@victor83]

@@crossaffliction I check it out! I don't really known for sure! 10 movie guaranteed indeed.

[@madelineashton5079]

Darling, Helen and I believe Anora is a terrible movie.

[@damdaniel5106]

Too relatable?

[@claireindigo1200]

Gonna be a hard season for you

[@lolalolalola3801]

Anora is overrated

[@EDouglasWW]

Yeah, CCA will go with Emilia Perez for International Feature.

[@rweevee]

I hope Emilia wins ❤❤❤❤