2023 First Growth Futures, Are They Worth it?

[@Randal835]

Tom - I enjoy your candor and no nonsense approach to wine. So many KZbin wine channels get into absurd territory with hyperbolic bottle reviews with tasting notes referencing scorched earth, wilted roses & 3 day old buttered sourdough. I see similarities in the price reductions of EVs - there's a surplus of stock that needs to go to a new home and the invisible hand of the market dictates that prices will fall to the right level to move the product. As with the people who purchased Tesla's a few days before Elon drops the price of a Model 3 by $3k, I'm sure buyers who went in on 2021/22 Bordeaux at those big prices will be upset at the moment. Do you think Bordeaux risks permanently burning their customer base with these price fluctuations?

[@OfficialRalphS]

Very good analysis... which I agree with. Best wishes from Switzerland

[@marcusvandenbroek8957]

Another wonderful analysis Tom. Objective, independent and level-headed. Thanks! The result of many years of experience, in the broadest sense of the word, regarding wine. A personal note. if I may be so free. Which helped me personally. First develop your personal taste over the years. Taste Bordeaux from all kinds of price segments of various classifications. From different years and different ages and certainly not only the so-called top years. In some cases it may be a first-growth, but do not make it an obsession. Testing and comparing wines blindly may also be part of this. Also put a Bordeaux blend from another wine region on the tasting table (preferably blind). Often very educational! In short, gain objective experience, so you know what you are talking about. Concerning Bordeaux, first-growth and wine in general. With the necessary experience and with the help of this channel, it is likely that you will gain a better understanding when it comes to first-growth purchases.

[@TobiasAsjogren]

Tom, much appriciated the analysis, you got integrity. 🙏🏼

[@strekk1486]

Feels like the destocking that played out in other markets in 2023 has yet to play out in Bordeaux, once you have that stock overhang prices are going to move lower. If you also have a situation where the producers pocketed the high prices selling into the futures market the past few years, and negotiants were left with the stock that didn't and now won't mov3 at the prices they paid, that could also incentives producers to move prices lower to clear their production, because they don't or have less exposure to the high priced stock that hasn't sold.

[@piffpaff1482]

Very helpful, thanks👋

[@samejia4]

Tom will you do analysis like last year on good QPR and your best buys of the vintage? Im relativelly new to collecting and as you said prices are good for first timers like me. Im doing at least 1 bottle of each

[@welshtoro3256]

Personally, I don't bother with this sort of wine. The prices are absurd and there are so many good wines from all over the world. Nevertheless, it's good to get the lowdown on these futures. Tom, I think you make a very good point about vintage quality and I completely agree. The majority of the wine I buy comes from Spain and Italy to a lesser extent. In the old days Rioja vintages, for example, could range from Poor, Average, Good, Very Good and, on occasion, Excellent. These days it's never below less than Very Good and you get a consistent producer profile.

[@winemoneysong]

Totally agree with you about the high quality of Rioja.

[@roeffaersmichel7971]

To the point!

[@JamesRoosevelt-i3u]

Very informative, your analysis is right on.

[@williamhuang2976]

completely agree with everything in the video. Especially, scores by all the critics are way inflated, even the reviews are less meaningful, but all the praise. I'm so glad I didn't buy any 2022 1st growth futures. I plan to buy 23 haut brion future, your opinion?

[@winemoneysong]

Haut-Brion is my favorite 1st growth and I don’t think you are go can go wrong at the 2023 futures HB price.

[@williamhuang2976]

@@winemoneysong thanks and cheers!

[@wakes_inc]

The way I see it, the number of people sitting on existing cellars who can sit this one out is greater than the number of new collectors who can afford multiple bottles of first growth. I just don't see where the demand will come from.

[@ptg01]

I stopped buying Bordeaux futures once it reached $1K per case...back in the 90's !

[@josephsiegel7084]

Let me guess....without watching the video I can predict that expensive things are not worth it, and that the quality of cheaper things is greater than more expensive things.