2024 How To Pick The Optimal March Madness Bracket

Rick is back with the 5th annual Optimal March Madness Bracket! This is the best way to use math and market inefficiencies to construct a winning bracket.
📝 Link to Bracket: bit.ly/3x74XjD
📊 Link to Sheet: bit.ly/4chfZTD
📈 PoolGenius Tool: bit.ly/49Urvmh
🐳 Splash Survivor: bit.ly/4ahdLlp
🏆 Link to 2023 ESPN Results (81.0%): bit.ly/3PlywVd
🏆 Link to 2022 ESPN Results (99.0%): bit.ly/3v3fPPd
🏆 Link to 2021 ESPN Results (94.0%): bit.ly/3IBKjdZ
🏆 Link to 2019 ESPN Results (98.4%): bit.ly/3varV9a
My Twitter: / rickrungood
Newsletter: rickrungood.com/newsletter
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#MarchMadness #NCAAB #CollegeBasketball #OptimalBracket ​#rickrungood

[@JamesKPolk-bu7qe]

Been waiting 364 days for this. YESSS

[@paulwakefield1015]

hahah! let's go James!

[@brock5932]

Came here to say the same thing

[@JSUkyle]

Same!!!

[@CardboardRyan]

Hahah

[@connorroute7064]

Same

[@nevergiveupnevergivein7655]

What this shows, with your champion pick, is that there is no mathematical means to pick a good bracket. You got lucky a few times, but statistical odds will catch up, and they did. It's impossible to consistently pick the tournament winner.

[@daltonspeers1171]

Rick, appreciate you doing this and will ride again next year, just like I have the previous 3 years. However, I do have a recommendation of waiting a few days later to fill out your bracket to get more accurate numbers. It allows more people to fill out their brackets!

[@buckdashe2571]

Yep. I’d recommend the same. This bracket busted in the Sweet Sixteen and those earlier games were a bit off, too. Almost ready to tell you to stick with golf but I see your history and a lot of dedicated fans… So yeah. I’ll see you next year, too. 😎

[@nevergiveupnevergivein7655]

​@@buckdashe2571it's a fun experiment, but over multiple years, the results are going to be hit and miss. The reason is that there are too many numerical possibilities as to who advances to the later rounds. He said that this bracket works best for large pools, but that's actually wrong. It works best with pools under 50. The reason being is that larger pools are going to have a handful of brackets that get lucky in predicting the bracket well. This likelihood decreases with smaller pools. Optimal pool size for this method is between 15 and 30.

[@evandothompson6378]

I’ve been following Rick for years and if anyone doubts the way he game theories this tournament, really look back on what he has done over the years. One of the best data based minds in the industry for sure.

[@DymonteThomas-gn5tw]

Last year I got smoked lol

[@JVPlayz96]

​Everyone did. Nobody saw FAU and SDSU going to the Final Four​@@DymonteThomas-gn5tw

[@DrZNeuroPT]

@@DymonteThomas-gn5tw LOL im already out of the final 8 ..

[@adamjaved6398]

Soooo this Bracket is officially busted lol

[@JVPlayz96]

@@adamjaved6398 No matter who you are or what formula you've got, you won't be perfect predicting a champion every year.

[@bigrythm]

And it's over

[@adamjaved6398]

Anddddd it’s over lol. Curious what next year will look like🤣🤣

[@acrr5524]

Just wanna say I've been waiting for this one. Last year's video helped me a ton so I'm hoping to learn a lot about the bracket again this year.

[@coryrapoza140]

This was the most fun I've had watching a bracket being filled out. Your analysis and strategy are top notch! Thanks Rick

[@jackbennett5884]

I have been looking everywhere on KZbin for you! I loved the vid last year. So glad I finally found it. Keep up the grind brother.

[@ddeloera]

Been here since 2019. Let’s go for another great run!

[@michaelbatkins9800]

Yessssss. Thank you so much Rick! The best

[@David-wt5hf]

I’ve been waiting since 5pm yesterday for this

[@gamingwithhomieonekonobi3556]

Best March Madness content in the biz Rick!💪🏼 Thank you & GL this year 🙏🏼

[@sinhueestrada3012]

FINALLY!!!! Welcome back RIck! Thank you for this AMAZING way to fill a bracket. I look fwd to it every year!

[@mikeg4290]

Is this potentially the worst the data has ever been? This is shaping up to be under 40% versus public

[@Shaundh]

Damn, I should’ve had my 5 year old do my picks 🤦🏻

[@Sannoso]

We're really missing that 538 model this year. But also there's so much parity this year. The high seeds aren't that much better.

[@SonicTheo]

Eh. UCONN is going to win. Data should have had them at like 35% odds to win though to be fair

[@nevergiveupnevergivein7655]

​@@Sannosothe problem is that statistical odds finally caught up to him. It's impossible to reliably pick the Final Four every year.

[@nevergiveupnevergivein7655]

​@@Sannosohe is swearing by the new company that he is using, but I think this illustrates that the numbers are not jiving.

[@ryand3rson]

LFG !!! I've been waiting a full year for this ..Rick is the BEST

[@johnkelly664]

Great Stuff again! Can't wait to follow my brackets now and watch some games.

[@j_morgue]

These are far and away the best bracket videos. Thank you!

[@cjdcjd5717]

Was looking forward to this video! Nice to see the groups of high leverage teams, usually make a few personal tweaks but definitely like this approach

[@djharrison754]

My favorite video every year! Thank you man!

[@jgfunk]

For those new here, in 2022 I followed these picks exactly. Finished 9th out of 1200 entries. Also, had one region picked perfectly. Last year was tough because the champ picked, Houston, lost. Still finished top in top 20%

[@mckayleblyons2902]

Started this in 2022 and couldn’t believe I got an entire region correct just increible work

[@Y.d.o.b.o.n]

My favorite video every year, thank you!

[@drewlockburner]

Love watching these every year. By far my favorite bracket video

[@xcfitzx]

Much love brother! Great work!

[@OBartels]

I remeber watching your video last year and when it came to this years March Madness I was frantically searching KZbin trying to remember who you were, i was so happy when i saw ur face on a thumbnail

[@Schwang17]

one of Rick's first 500 subscribers right here. Glad we are back for another year of this. Good luck everybody!

[@RickRunGood]

Appreciate you!

[@everettrichey9700]

Watching your MM videos has become an annual tradition for me . I’m fascinated by the game theory/leverage stuff and you explain it so well. Thanks for everything dude!

[@masonsellers3796]

Rick, all of your golf content is great but this might be your best video. You take so much information and do an outstanding job analyzing and explaining it, really great job thank you!

[@Jcabball34]

Love your golf videos but this is the best video every year. LETS GO

[@dustingilstrap6838]

I finally won my factory pool last year. After 9 years of playing, and 3 years following your advice. Thanks a lot man.

[@linchpin57]

you do a great job with this... gives me a new direction to help my picks

[@garrettharding8817]

Been waiting all year, revenge year!! Thanks man!

[@kenritz1617]

Thanks for the video. Great stuff as always.

[@chrismuro1357]

Great video… breakdown and thought process is awesome.

[@joycesingleton3669]

Interesting, thanks for sharing. Will try it this year!

[@angelescity23]

This is always my favorite breakdown of the tourney brackets ... thanks, Rick !

[@AbusedAlarmClock]

Lets gooooo, thank you again!

[@robintaylor2527]

love the video thank you for the great info. great job

[@coachcarterlifts]

LETS GOOOOO! Won 2 years ago, got 2nd place last year. Let's get another dub, in Rick we trust!

[@rickytamir4907]

Awesome video - thank you. Liked, subscribed, commented, shared. This content has earned it all.

[@groovygopher12]

Thank you, awesome video!

[@connor12912]

loved the video! super helpful info

[@MrToast-mo1ud]

Great day 1 Rick, let’s keep it going 🤞

[@coursesyouneedtoplay]

Let's gooooo Rick! Love this, thank you!

[@ZardTrainer10]

Heck yeah! Best March Madness bracket video!

[@gladiator_edits162]

I like a lot of these picks, there is a few spots Id change but for the most part it checked out with my simple analytics

[@paulwakefield1015]

YESSSSSSSSSand first. Been staring at my phone for this notification! Can’t wait to take a look Rick!!

[@clipwrecked9190]

Rick! I have been waiting for this Video, I am talking your word and trying to win my bracket!!

[@themilwaukeebrewerswillnev7545]

Been waiting for this! Last year was one buzzer beater loss from creighton from being at minimum in the money maybe winning the pool. Won money every other year. Let’s get it

[@Tom-sz3tu]

Thank you Rick! ESPN and 538 can't stop us!

[@jsteele_1020]

Let's go!! You won me $400 one year with this video!

[@scraplord8504]

People in the comments don’t understand variance. I still believe in this method

[@Webs321]

That was incredible. Might watch a game or 2. Probably won’t fill out a bracket. But I enjoyed that selection process.

[@halilsrealfootballtalk]

Appreciate this, as always! Love to listen to this to combine with the expert picks and find leverage spots! I've got some money on Tennessee +1800 and Dalton Kecht as Most Outstanding Player of the Tournament at +1200!

[@wingeddagger4825]

You are the GOAT brother, every single year you come through!

[@JClay-lf7nx]

Thanks Rick. You the man!

[@davehawash2255]

I've been waiting since last year for this especially since I forgot you did this last year when it was too late and I already turned in my office bracket last year. BUT NOT THIS YEAR YAAAAAAAAAY!!!

[@Ray-ng2ju]

Thanks🎉

[@trollyjones6863]

The bracket is cooked 🔥🔥🔥

[@user-lz2bu7di5y]

Let's go, I've been waiting for this.

[@fc_mossman]

I’ve been doing nearly the same concept for a few years and thought I had figured out something nobody else had lol. Thoughts on using an aggregate of multiple sports books’ odds to advance to each round as your “sharp” input for leverage? Fantastic video - already can’t wait for next years.

[@thomasheepke3821]

Very nice. Love the approach to filling it in and the value pick philosophy. I watched this video before completing my final bracket, took the advice and had a few minor adjustments, but it's by far my best and has the highest possible total of any of mine. Great work. I will be looking for some golf contests. Been killing it in DK lately and need some more action. Keep it up bro!

[@thomasheepke3821]

.... I'm curious, did you study Mathematics or Statistics? Or do you just learn on your own and develop the methodologies, data models, etc. from that informal education? I have some similar models but more often than not I don't take the time to really refine them and utilize them to their potential.

[@jodyhighrolla952]

best content there is. i’m in tournament challenges where the data is much more critical on early round (you get the round points PLUS points for the seed - ie. the 16 beating the 1 seed in the first round gives you 1 point for first round win PLUS 16 points). this data is useful to compare when to bounce those top teams, but it’s much more advantageous to bounce top teams as early as you can. For instance if we think UCONN going to lose anyway i’ll bounce them in the 2nd round since theyre only worth an additional 1 point per round. Not sacrificing much. Thank you for this every year!

[@RickRunGood]

Oh wow -- yes, that definitely changes the process a bit. I'm always impressed to see how many different formats there are.

[@jodyhighrolla952]

just realized it’s actually a multiple and not added. so multiply the seed by the round. advance to second round = seed x 1 advance to Sweet 16 = seed x 2 advance to Elite 8 = seed x 4 advance to Final 4 = seed x 8 advance to Championship Game = seed x 16 Win National Champion = seed x 32 so yea there’s really no advantage to picking 1 seeds since they’re only worth the value of the round itself. i’d be interested to see how the data runs something like this. to me, i’ve always just taken the good teams i thought would lose the next round, and bounced them in the prior round anyway. it’s worth the point upside just in case, and even if you’re wrong you only lose out on a small amount of points. For example UCONN winning in the round of 32 over Northwestern is only worth 2 points, but taking Northwestern to win could fetch you 18 points. UCONN winning a national championship is worth the same as an 8 seed going to the elite 8, or a 4 seed going to the final four

[@AlexJames123]

Got 700 points out of 1260 on espn. Much better than I've ever done!

[@everettrichey9700]

Thanks!

[@DraftsmanCards]

Back in January I made a futures bet for Arizona to win the tournament so feels good watching this

[@to6955]

My favorite youtube video of the year. Let's go!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[@paulwakefield1015]

agreed!

[@sheajohnson6310]

One of my favorite yearly traditions- taking my family's money using Rick's statistical analysis :)

[@mikeroth2636]

Marquette may be without first-team All-American PG Tyler Kolek due to an oblique injury, which kept him out of the Big East. Good luck picking Marquette - You’ll need it!

[@JGB2K01]

Most useful bracket video I've seen

[@bryanstan13]

You had a good run man!

[@HJPisMe_]

Having 3 of the 4 same elite 8 matchup as this bracket made me feel really good

[@adventureguard]

I’m in a 1000 person pool and no one ahead of this bracket has the same final four combination. This bracket is doing exactly what it’s supposed to. 🙏

[@RickRunGood]

Exactly! It has a great foundation. Still need to win games but this is kind of the plan.

[@mikeg4290]

And now you’re screwed

[@adventureguard]

@@mikeg4290 I know buddy

[@scraplord8504]

Thanks again Rick

[@c3quagmire651]

Thanks Rick!

[@tyengebretson4679]

Awesome Vid Rick as always

[@jamessutherland6276]

As someone who knows nothing about college basketball, I should say I won my pool with my sports journalism class in 2019 using Rick’s info. He’s the man

[@adamgoldstein2287]

This is so sick and so smart.

[@TheRealerArbor]

Appreciate this video. Im in a smaller pool, but i know for a fact Uconn, Houston and Perdue are gonna be chosen by everyone. Gonna take the risk an run with Arizona.

[@richboyprado]

Duuuude Oregon almost did that! I would’ve been a clear favorite for my bracket pool if we pull that one off holy cow - satisfied with the pick. One more free throw away from the W

[@braddusek9201]

you're the man Rick!

[@Zxooms]

Favorite day of the year

[@thomasreinke-xc4pu]

Ummm how do I say this, this was so amazing I love it every second of it. Nice work chap

[@petergressick586]

The only predictions I listen too...💪💪

[@FantasyFootballFiends]

Espn’s “View people’s bracket link on the tourny challenge dashboard page is what the “who picked whom” is. :)

[@maruwapofilms815]

Fascinating stuff as someone who loves college basketball

[@pstack1123]

Let’s goo!!! The return of the Great One

[@MrLiveClips]

RIICCKKKK. Our lord and savior. The data driven analysis and granularity you provide is top tier

[@rudybetta]

Rick, Nate Silver from 538 still does the projections and this year he shows just the East bracket to the public and to see the rest you have to be a subscriber of his

[@nickpeterson0513]

best video of the year

[@noahdeitrich7620]

This guy wins me my bracket challenge every year

[@Crose46]

This is the best march madness video I’ve ever seen

[@teemoney5563]

New sub here, let's get this 💰 mane!!!!

[@sheenalawrick]

THE BEST!

[@EP-wl4do]

So glad you picked my cats to win it all! And home advantage if we get there!

[@si9007]

I have been waiting for this 😂

[@chach1288]

Best college analyst in the business!!

[@8axter]

Hey Rick, Nate Silver posted his numbers for March Madness 2024 (he used to post the numbers for 538) I've plugged those numbers into your sheet, very different leverage in some spots vs. PoolGenius odds... should be interesting.

[@tubamaestro55]

This video is the single greatest sports betting video put out every year by anyone regardless of sport

[@MrMiniPancakes]

I love these videos!!! Marquette’s best player may be out game 1 and 2 which is a concern