2024 Stephen Foster Preview - First Mission? Skippylongstocking? Disarm? Longshot? - Pres by KTDF

Join PTF and Jonathon Kinchen as they dive deep into the Grade 1 Stephen Foster Stakes, the first domestic “Win and You’re In” Challenge Series race for the 2024 Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic! This prestigious race takes place under the iconic Twin Spires at Churchill Downs, offering a guaranteed spot in the $7 million Longines Classic on Nov. 2 at Del Mar, with entry fees waived and a travel stipend for horses stabled outside of California.
Race Details:
Location: Churchill Downs, Louisville, KY
Date: Saturday, June 29
Time: Post time 6:03 PM ET
Broadcast: FanDuel TV
Why It's Important:
The Stephen Foster Stakes, run over 1 1/8 miles on dirt, features a purse of up to $1 million. This race has been won by some of the most iconic horses, including Black Tie Affair, Awesome Again, Saint Liam, Blame, and Gun Runner, who have all clinched the Breeders’ Cup Classic in the same year. This year’s race promises to continue that legacy with a competitive field.
Top Contenders:
First Mission (6-5): Trained by Brad Cox and ridden by Florent Geroux, this Godolphin homebred comes off impressive victories and aims to secure his first Grade 1 win.
Skippylongstocking (5-2): With victories in the Oaklawn Handicap and Challenger Stakes, this horse is primed for a strong performance under the guidance of trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. and jockey Jose Ortiz.
Disarm (6-1): Trained by Steve Asmussen and ridden by Joel Rosario, this horse shows untapped potential and could be a surprise contender.
Other Notable Entries:
Pyrenees (12-1): An ascending star with recent wins, trained by Cherie DeVaux.
Kingsbarns (6-1): A consistent performer under trainer Todd Pletcher and jockey Luis Saez.
Happy American (30-1), Dreamlike (10-1), Classic Causeway (30-1), Steal Sunshine (20-1): All bringing their unique strengths to the field.
Expert betting tips and predictions to help you make informed wagers.
Don’t miss out on this comprehensive preview! Whether you're a seasoned bettor or new to horse racing, PTF and JK's expert insights will equip you with everything you need to know for this weekend’s big race.
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[@julianbrown1092]

Congrats, Jamal, on your new contract.

[@Mark-y5m5v]

JK, Disarm exited the LA Derby (G2) with a 2nd place finish ahead of his start in the Lexington. In the Lexington he was defeated by First Mission a last out MSW winner by 4 3/4L. First Mission has won his last two starts and it could be concluded he is on his second win streak with the previous ending at 3. Disarm has never won consecutive races in a career that spans 10 starts. First Mission has won 5 of his 8 career starts whereas Disarm has won 3 of his 10 starts. There is a clearly a significant talent gap between the two colts. This gap is unlikely to be reduced with Disarm being a fellow 4YO. Kingsbarns defeated Disarm in the LA Deby. Kingsbarns was recently defeated in the Pimlico Special by the Into Mischief colt Pyrenees who has won his last 4 races. The Pimlico Special was Kinsbarns's 4th graded stakes start, whereas Pyrenees was making his graded stakes debut in the race. You have made no mention of Pyrenees who has more wins from less starts than disarm. The ML on Disarm is appealing but the risk is too high for 6/1. Did you do any review of the Todd Pletcher conditioned Dreamlike? In the PA Derby he unleashed a ferocious stretch run on a sloppy/sealed surface to fall 1/2L short of catching Saudi Crown. Yes! The same Saudi Crown who ran lights put in the Saudi Cup. He returned from the PA Derby to finish ahead of Saudi Crown in the BCC in which he was only beaten by 81/2L. I consider it noteworthy that Dreamlike finished only 3 1/4L behind Senor Buscador in the BCC. Subsequent to the BCC Senor Buscador finished 2nd in the Cigar Mile; 2nd Pegasus; 1st Saudi Cup and 3rd Dubai World Cup. Dreamlike only win ahead of the PA Derby and BCC was recorded in a MSW. Given his relatively close finish to Senor Buscador in the BCC and that horse's subsequent exploits listed above. Dreamlike has to be considered a major under achiever in the two starts since the BCC. He surprisingly finished a close 2nd in a NW2 and most recently 3rd in the 9F Blame Stakes. He was probably the best in the Blame. He surrendered a lot of ground after being piloted miles wide at the top of the stretch. He came home willingly to be only beaten by 3L in a good time of 1:48.51. The Steven Foster has been won with times alternating between 1:47 & 1:48. I am of the opinion Dreamlike is a 1:48 entrant whilst not surrendering lot of ground. With Tod Pletcher's propensity to load graded stakes horses with High Octane and win at long odds. If Dreamlike has not transitioned to the status of damage goods, his close finish behind Senor Buscador in the BCC, has to make an extremely dangerous entrant if he shows up ready to deliver a positive effort..

[@gordonwasserman7352]

To JK - Are you concerned about no lasix this start?

[@ColinMcCarter]

Usually they're all drugged anyway

[@InTheMoneyMediaNetwork]

Not at all. He didnt have lasix in his Matt Winn win or his Travers 2nd

[@markmarinello119]

Sorry Matt, I followed your advice twice this week on two different longshots and they never even got into the money. You're a great guy but I can't trust my money to your advice.

[@marklewen9384]

Not the strongest rendition of the Foster...I had a nice exacta in the Travers with arcangelo- Disarm,but he got a Perfect golden rail trip in that race. I think he is vulnerable at low price ...

[@fredk9999]

Where is J K’s “lively” shirt?

[@InTheMoneyMediaNetwork]

saving them for FOX!

[@fredk9999]

The lyrics of Stephen Foster's American folk song "Camptown Races" are about a group of transients in a camp town who bet on horses in an attempt to make money. The song includes lines like "I'll bet my money on de bob-tail nag, Somebody bet on de bay". However, betting on horses was considered immoral at the time, so the "Camptown ladies" may have been shady

[@chrischester7465]

All hail the Pimlico Special . I hope Portnoy learned not to bet with JK

[@johniaci7563]

I've said it before and I'll say it again people who think first mission is the best horse in the race and won't bet on him because of price are disgusting I will always bet on the horse o think has the best shot to when I don't care if he is 1to 10 I'd rather win 10 cents than lose 2 $ but if you think disarm is truly better or even equal then I understand

[@marklewen9384]

They are "disgusting"?? Or are they wise??

[@markmarinello119]

My mistake guys i posted my last comment for Matt DeSantis in the wrong place

[@marklewen9384]

Other than the met mile, FROSTED NEVER grew up..