2025 DGA & SAG Reaction…WHAT THE [BLEEP]!

[@LanceSecretaria]

with you on #grandeoscarwin but i fear the movie being a 2-parter is what will hurt her. voters might be more inclined to reward her once they see the whole thing next year. i don't think she's ending this season empty-handed though. i could see her getting CC and SAG.

[@OscarObsessedADHD]

Thank goodness someone else is on-board with #grandeoscarwin :) I agree with you on getting Critics Choice, I'm skeptical about SAG because of this being her first movie and Saldana being around for so long. That whole 2-parter thing still baffles me. Either we make the Oscar specific to the movie and give no one anything until the "whole" film set is completed or we honor people for the individual movie role. Honestly, if she is superb in both of them then honor her in both of them. Lots of critics agree with you and are saying they will wait to give her the Oscar till the end and then give it to her for everything. UGH, I just don't get that mentality. Let's hope if that's the case that they honor it next year. What happens if next year there is some stellar performance by another actress, are they going to give it to Grande and next year will when "Wicked: Part Two" is more about Glinda than Elphaba and she is eligible for Actress in a Leading Role, will they give it to her in that category? Or will she be dissed entirely both years? That's what scares me the most!

[@LanceSecretaria]

@OscarObsessedADHD SAG seems to love wicked to the point they even nominated johnny bailey in supporting, ari could ride that wave to a win🤷 at least that's what I'm hoping. she's doing exceptionally well campaigning for sag too. have you seen that panel thing she did for them? the girl is hilarious and completely had that room laughing their ass off, she might just charm her way to that win. and with you on that issue with that whole waiting to reward her thing. if she's great in this, she's great in this. and although she's at a disadvantage, having the least extensive filmography, voters need only to look at her years as a popstar and compare it to her performance in this film. I'm a huge fan of popstar ariana for years and trust me while watching wicked i had to constantly remind myself that this is ariana grande. she was that good and I'm really hoping they give her her flowers. also, i love the juxtaposition of her being perhaps the most popular personality in her race but she's also the underdog?

[@kwalton7690]

I think the whole business of predicting nominations/wins during awards season encourages people to react (whether justified or not) to each awards body even though they are not all created equally (Golden Globes has zero overlap with the Academy whereas SAG does). I also think that people tend to get excited when their personal favorites are recognized at certain ceremonies that they assign more value to said awards ceremony while disregarding others. For SAG, all signs point to Wicked winning ensemble and Chalamet winning Lead Actor. Keiran will probably win Supporting but I can see Jeremy Strong also winning. Ariana will win Supporting and I think Mikey will win Lead Actress.

[@OscarObsessedADHD]

Liking those predictions, thanks for sharing. There definitely is some personal bias when you love a film or performer so much and then they finally win. Agree with you on the Awards not caring the same value, I think that's why you have to look at the voting body. Yeah, Golden Globes and Critics choice have no overlap with each other, the Oscars or any of the Guild awards whereas there is the overlap between the Guilds and the Academy. Hence why I should have gone with my gut for SAG and moved Jeremy Strong up from #7. SAG voters love Succession and look, we got Culkin and Strong. I'm excited to see what SAG does with Wicked because the ASTRAS loved Wicked and Wicked is so popular domestically, even with its supposed "downturn". Critics Choice I think will love Wicked also given those voters are all US and Canada. So funny, you mentioned Chalamet as just today I was thinking he is probably the only one who can stop Brody from sweeping the Awards show and this would be the one. Mikey Madison has been the favorite all season and if she wins, well deserved.... even though that would mean Demi lost :(

[@kwalton7690]

@@OscarObsessedADHD I think because the Globes are first and there is such attention drawn to them (more than SAG and BAFTA) they get the most reaction outside of the Oscars. Yeah, I overlooked Jeremy Strong too but with SAG I think he is in that 5th slot behind Borisov (who now has Globes, SAG, Critics Choice and is on BAFTA longlist). I honestly would not be surprised if Wicked performs better than people expect at BAFTAs. It was filmed there will a mostly British crew and did very well in the UK. Agree about Chalamet, I think SAG is his only major win. While I don't think Demi will sweep, I think she has more of a chance to because of that Actress/Hair & Makeup pairing :)

[@berkcansevgi2714]

The only thing The Substance missed is the supporting actress. We knew the film didn't gave a shot for ensemble. Demi is still there. still getting critics awards

[@OscarObsessedADHD]

Agreed. Ensemble was the longest of long shots even with Dennis Quaid. I was very happy to see Moore get that nom. Now will she get the win? I'm predicting so!

[@berkcansevgi2714]

One thing: If they had known Anora would be shut out at the Globes, I wonder if they would still have nominated it

[@OscarObsessedADHD]

It does make me you wonder how much these early film awards influence the future nominations. I love how SAG voting ended right when the Golden Globes started :)

[@Leesword1]

Anora is a top contender. Globes were odd.

[@eddylosangeles]

Some how , We are still judging Pamela Anderson , but the truth is that she did one of the best roles this year for The Last Showgirl. In fact to me, she was the best next to Demi. In my opinion(I’m Spanish) Karla did a great job, but not the best… sorry 😬.I think something is missing for the no Spanish talking people… But I’m happy for her .

[@OscarObsessedADHD]

So true, like we need to stop judging people on their past. Pamela Anderson gave a remarkable performance, and she deserves to be honored for that role! Why does her past matter when it comes to her acting role? Totally agree with you, Pamela and Demi are both stellar this year and this should be a message to the Academy, "stop discounting women over a certain age"! I've heard that regarding Karla's role and the entire movie, that something is "lost in translation". She definitely deserves the nomination! I also think it's fantastic that she will be the first Transgendered actor or actress ever nominated! So for SAG, who are you choosing, Pamela or Demi?

[@eddylosangeles]

@ thanks for the nice words! 👏🏽👏🏽. About your question… it’s so hard !! Both are great, I will go for Pamela but doesn’t hurt me if it goes for Demi. What I really really want it’s to see both of them at the Oscars. 😍. This two woman deserves everything in the industry this year because they did excellent acting. Another thing I want to say it’s that, not because actresses like Angelina , Winslet or Kidman (great great actresses) are not getting a nomination, means anything. This is about recognition and respect for a good work and this year should be for the others because what recognition needs Winslet? She is probably the best actress in the world! Or Angelina , or Kidman!!! ?? They will have many others opportunities and they are already Hollywood Royalty. ❤ Regarding Pamela’s past, she is been always a sweet woman but Hollywood was very cruel with her after the video, the Stolen Video! .. then, they ruined her career after that.. Why didn’t they do it with Brad Pitt and Gwinnet at the balcony? Or Collin Farrell? Just because Pamela is a woman! Just wishing the best to her .

[@michelehamilton961]

Everyone was wrong. I don’t think anyone could of predicted some of these nominees. I do feel bad for Sing Sing, which thanks to A21 ‘s terrible campaign will most likely not be in the best picture 10. Do not give up on Demi Moore but Pamela Anderson will take some of her votes for SAG.

[@OscarObsessedADHD]

Thanks for making me not feel bad in my "wrongness" :) I do feel bad for both Sing Sing and Nickel Boys. Both are fabulous films and this proves how much the distributors need to campaign for their films. That's why I say great job Mubi for "The Substance". Oh, and totally agree, Anderson and Moore are going after the same voters for SAG.

[@jimburesh6694]

The only relevance is Brutalist (art) vs Complete Unknown (garbage).

[@OscarObsessedADHD]

Haha, I take it not a big fan of "A Complete Unknown"??? I haven't seen it yet; however, it definitely is getting a lot of positive buzz since its release. What did you dislike most about the film?

[@michaeladkins6]

ALL of the experts gave too much weight to the Globes. They are lucky to exist.

[@michelehamilton961]

@michealadkins6 I would respectfully disagree. Let’s remember that last year Anatomy of a Fall, American Fiction and Boy and Heron got their starts at the Globe. Also no actress who won Globe Drama had not gotten into the Oscar 5 since 1990 (when there was a 3 way tie and 2 of the 3 actresses got in). Andra Day even got in with only the Globe win.

[@OscarObsessedADHD]

The Globes are always an interesting Awards show to watch because of the division between comedy/musical and drama for the leads and best picture. To me, I like to using the Globes for Screenplay. It's the only Awards show (that I am aware) that combines adapted and original into one. Gives me a little insight into how people are feeling - that's why Conclave was so shocking to me.

[@OscarObsessedADHD]

@@michelehamilton961 I love stats and that's a great one about the Globe Drama Actress. Thanks for providing and thanks for watching. Oh, and you are totally right, I mean I don't like Anatomy of a Fall would have gone anywhere had the Globes not given them the Win!

[@BOB-vh3wo]

All you guys that are so called experts are terrible. I haven't seen a movie in 20 years and I did a better job then you. Thanks for the good laugh. Now you will wait until the sag awards are over and you will change your mind and predict whatever wins there. I could do that.

[@OscarObsessedADHD]

Happy I could make you laugh :) Great job predicting so many, that's awesome. I don't claim to be an expert; I'm simply someone who has loved movies and the Oscars my whole life. I don't usually tend to change my mind based on the results of other award shows; however I will say the voting body definitely influences my predictions.