2025 MLB PECOTA Standings Projections Are BRUTAL!

#mlb #pecota #baseball

[@greatnessdelton1381]

Yankees 90-72 Orioles 88-74 Red Sox 85-77 Rays 81-81 Blue Jays 77-85 Guardians 89-73 Royals 87-75 Tigers 86-76 Twins 82-80 White Sox 43-119 Rangers 87-75 Astros 86-76 Mariners 84-78 A's 75-87 Angels 70-92 Braves 94-68 Phillies 91-71 Mets 88-74 Nationals 75-87 Marlins 55-107 Cubs 89-73 Brewers 86-76 Reds 86-76 Pirates 75-87 Cardinals 74-88 Dodgers 112-50 D-backs 91-71 Padres 80-82 Giants 79-83 Rockies 52-110

[@banderse77]

Nice predictions, tigers-royals-guardians any of those could be interchanged.

[@lemmywotb]

I think this is pretty good

[@hippie_7]

i hope the white sox break the loss record two years in a row 🙏

[@lemmywotb]

Might bump angels up more games tho

[@sni6941]

Jim, can you double check last year’s PECOTA prediction comparing to the final results, how much differences on teams? Did it come close to most teams?

[@imwinningbxch]

i know padres were 81 or 82 and won 93

[@anonymoususer3012]

​@@imwinningbxchThey were 79 according to PECOTA. Reason why I don't trust this projection

[@markchriscruz2]

Dodgers at 100% playoff percentage is wild! ... not 99.9% but 100%

[@larrybrown3910]

99.9% yes. 100% No. Only taxes are 100%.

[@kevingallagher8973]

Dave Roberts' career win percentage went down last year when they only won 98.

[@joshdudeguy2830]

So let me get this straight... They see the Blue Jays and think "they had an underperforming year so we'll give them a huge boost because we expect better this year" but then they look at the Astros who had the shittiest season since at least 2015 that they have had and yet STILL made the postseason and they don't think, despite at least 3 major pitching assets coming back, that the Astros will do any better than they have??? Classic. Everybody hates the Astros. To the point of double standards.

[@acelm8437]

I'm a Rangers fan and still leaning Houston to win the West. Their pitchers could scare me and they still have Altuve and Alvarez.

[@brandonkiehl269]

The Astros lost Tucker (one of the best players in baseball) and probably Bregman, while guys like Altuve are just getting older. It's not like they ONLY got better. At best, they've broken even.

[@BlooketWarriorYT]

As of week 02/03 - 02/07 Cleveland are looking at trading WITH the Los Angeles Dodgers AND signing a free agent pitcher from New York Met. So if that happens Cleveland Guardians' potential ranking from whatever thing you are using increase by a few games or even more.

[@bensinger2261]

The Braves biggest addition isn’t profar. It’s a healthy acuna, strider, Riley, Harris, albies, and Murphy

[@JSMIG]

Their not additions lol already part of the team.

[@bensinger2261]

@ they’re additions as in they were all out for months last year and some season ending injuries

[@JSMIG]

​@bensinger2261 that would be "bounce back" not addition.. Adition would be a brand new player, all those guys played for the braves last year.

[@mitchellchagas1669]

Just subbed to your channel. I can tell you know ball. Cant wait for this MLB season 🍻.

[@GravityFalloutPines]

A's will win more than 71, that's easy money, just like they killed last year's Vegas projection of 56 wins

[@tecolotegto]

The Brewers beat these projections every year

[@joeturner9692]

Not in 2022 they didn't

[@Sammy_Boy_Smith]

LMAO... he didn't even mention the Rockies.

[@DerbyKnowledge93]

who are they ?

[@robstanley46]

Man the O’s really need an ace pitcher. It’s great that Bautista will be back as the closer but that ace pitcher is that missing puzzle piece

[@thomasgaines4636]

Offense gonna be way better this year.

[@robstanley46]

@ exactly

[@faithbarnum1671]

Let’s go blue jays

[@Double2KK]

San Diego depth is a major issue, especially for starting pitching.

[@refusetolose05]

If you look back on my comments from 2023, youll see i said 2025 is the Reds year where talent meets experience. I see 85 at a minimum.

[@TheChuck181]

LETS GO BLUE JAYS I BELIEVE! COME ON PETE COME ON BREGGY THIS TRAINS TAKING OFF

[@stevenwalker4923]

For the Orioles, it all depends on how good their pitching will be. If their pitching gives up more than 4 runs a game, they'll be slightly lower than last year's win total. Their offense can score 5 runs agame on average and more than their ERA for pitching, they'll be in the hunt.

[@jdscottphd]

PECOTA is all about the team's 2-3 years ago; they always assume that if last year was unexpected (i.e., Chisox losing 120, Royals and Tigers surging) then the team will "return to the mean." Even 2-3 "big additions" don't matter, nor do recent injuries. It basically takes the team from 2023, assumes that is the "real" talent level, and that the 24 team "should" have won more or less, and the 25 team will be the average of those two. When you run the simulations 100,000 times, everyone ends up between 72-89 wins

[@druth8x]

Dodgers/White Sox/MIA/COL are not everyone (bump your 78 to 93 to get ATL and CHC) then, lolz...I get what you are saying though. On top of all that its really hard to project for 105+ wins or losses those are very rare in real life...most end results for teams are 95 wins or losses max so projecting for the outlier wouldn't show up on the highest end of the bell curve.

[@weezerman2002]

63 to 76 for the Angels…..The Angels folded up early and went for draft placement, which worked out with us getting #2 pick (Jayce LaVoilette). I projected 72-74 wins, so 76 isn’t that far off.

[@Goomba999]

No 90 game winners in the AL is a wild prediction. I know the league is bad but a few teams will feast on the really bad teams.

[@BigfistJP]

Cincinnati is the one that struck me as way off. Francona is going to make a huge difference there.

[@AndrewFisher-c7p]

Philly needs more releivers

[@sni6941]

I think older players regression in general has higher probability than younger players adjusting to big league. So I will put money on younger players to perform ascending than older players to holding at last year level.

[@druth8x]

sophomore slump appears to be a real thing, I think as the opponents adjust as they have seen your current repertoire. It's a game of constant adjustments and the first time you have to adjust may take the longest or not at all.

[@brandohernandez9991]

AL Central any those team can take it, who’s hot at the 2nd end of the season

[@matthewcarey750]

Knowing my angels, theyll probably be around 500 in July and make a terrible move to trade for pitching, call up Christian Moore too early, and still miss the postseason

[@Alpinefan1]

Just hope my cardinals can develop these young guys this year and I’d be happy

[@Texansfootball713]

1 Astros 95-76 2 Rangers 88-74 3 mariners 85-77 4 athletics 75-87 5 angels 72-90

[@JacobBailey]

whoa. They are flat out wrong about the Reds! The makeup and chemistry of this lineup will do great. I think the Reds can win 86!

[@Hagen-s7y]

Tigers Boston et AL with New players suffering a sophomore slump is a possibility....

[@benjames4502]

The Twins haven't done sh*t this off season, technically the team is worse off compared to last year's epic playoff chase collapse. Honestly, what kind of meth head metrics are these projections being made?

[@themoonisreal12]

I think the Tigers have a real chance at winning the AL Central this year, more than previous years.

[@DonLewis86753]

I'm a Phillies fan from Philadelphia. I believe they didn't do enough n i think the window closed. No righty power bat behind Harper. Who scares you in the line up other than Harper? Turner? No. Schwarber leads off. They rely on the long ball, no pure hitters. I hate to say it but if 1 injury happens, they are cooked.

[@cody0010]

I'm a Braves fan and I am afraid of Turner. He is the only true all around player on The Phils.

[@brandonkiehl269]

The Phils won over 100 games through multiple injuries, including Trea, last year? Idk where you got the idea that they have no depth.

[@DonLewis86753]

@ Over 100 games? Depth isn't the issue. Who scares teams besides Harper? The window closed. All we have is pitching (thank God)

[@Jose_Hunters_EWF_Remixes]

The White Ursine has rejoined NYM

[@PhilNolasco]

I grew up in Queens I will always be a diehard New York Mets fan.

[@brandohernandez9991]

I agree if Jays get Alonso🤝

[@Texansfootball713]

1 Dodgers 100-62 2 diamondbacks 90-72 3 padres 88-74 4 Giants 84-78 5 Rockies 62-100

[@caroloccasionally6301]

Let’s go Yankees let’s go Yankees

[@James-y1i7p]

Suarez (CL) to Reds; Pagan, Arraez, and Vasquez to Twins; Lopez (SP), Marte (3B), and Dunn to Pads.

[@patdon8631]

Musgrove was hurt most of the year. Ha Seong Kim hurt and underperformed last year.

[@eshep71]

We were the 3rd best 'non pitching' WAR team in the AL. 6th overall. Would have been 1st in the AL if Bo was his usual self. No one seems to think the pitching was the problem.. but it was the only real problem. If they recover their 2023 form, 84 is low.

[@skidrat55]

A lot of that was dWAR which is extremely overvalued especially by baseball reference

[@eshep71]

@skidrat55 true, but if Bo reprieves then we can expect 10 oWAR extra next year. Only 1000 war overall to go around. Every piece counts. Doesn't matter how they get it.

[@eshep71]

@skidrat55 16th in oWAR. 8 of the 27war is defensive.. Good call because I figured that, but didn't find the number until you called it lol (we got on base well, but can't get home) More than half the dWAR is Ernie and Varsho. Guys who will be there to help again. Without WAR, I see this as our projected stats added..(included Bo.) Bo ; 20+ hr, 50+ runs and 20+SB Vlad +10 hr Santander + 35hr, + 80 runs Gimenez +12 hr, + 70 runs +30 steals. Minus 12hr/45 runs from Horowitz Maybe I'm just hopeful, but I'm a believer that we won't even see the remnants of last year. One and done.

[@skidrat55]

@@eshep71 I respect the optimism. I think if Bo rebounds and Gimenez reverts to a semblance of 2022 Gimenez things get real interesting. But I'm also expecting a big regression from Santander. I think we need one of Pete or Bregman to be a true playoff team

[@eshep71]

@skidrat55 Santander had +7 expected HRs via statcast. Most in baseball, Which indicates luck. I expect 30-35 realistically. I'm sad it came to him, I thought he was the exact definition of 'low hanging fruit' that they wanted to avoid. Vlad is supposed to be the 40+ guy. I think it's sad we are needing to find it elsewhere.

[@themightyshogun]

That Red Sox projection is crazy. They are making the playoffs this year

[@kevinturner1849]

Omg dude, teams are gonna go backwards. It doesn’t matter who you add or who you subtract. Not a White Sox fan but you don’t think they’re not gonna improve. They’re not gonna be as bad as they were last year.

[@indiansfan444444]

I can get what why they predict the AL central the way they do but I don’t agree with it. Chicago will be bad but I don’t think historically bad again even if it isn’t much of an improvement. I think as good as KC was they got really lucky last year. All but 5 games were started by the top 5 starters and the trade deadline pickup Lorenzen. That is incredible health and I don’t they repeat it this year so depth will be tested. On the opposite end the Twins top players can’t stay healthy. I might be one of the few Cleveland fans that WANTS to see Lewis and Buxton stay healthy to see how great Buxton can really be and if Lewis is as good as he appears at times. I’m also a big believer in Detroit and think they have had a sneaky good offseason and are being slept on big time. I was more surprised last year that they sold at the deadline than I was they made the playoffs. I had more faith in the team than my cousin and her husband (life long die hard Tigers fan) who gave up on the team in June. And finally even Cleveland’s own fans can’t agree on our offseason. It honestly feels like people either love it and think we are better than last year or hate it and want to burn the stadium down because we got worse after going to the ALCS. I honestly feel we are in the middle of that but slightly better because we will be more consistent now. Santana might be worse than Naylor but at least he won’t swing wildly at 3 straight pitches way out of the zone when he isn’t hitting great. It will be hard to replace Gimenez on defense but he was well below average hitting and should be easy to improve on. Losing Boyd sucks but Ortiz looks like a smart pickup. At worst it’s a wash I think.

[@marcor22044]

NL East no way Braves get that top spot

[@blairmcbride5437]

You must be a Mets or Phillies fan. Keep lying to yourself. The only reason they didn't win the division again last year was because they were so injury riddled compared to the Phillies and Mets.

[@marcor22044]

@blairmcbride5437 lol not even close boy. But the one thats not been honest is you. Lost Fried and Morton ....Acuña recovering etc.

[@kyleknapp1985]

I think Atlanta wins the division. Daddy is home.

[@kentfreeman8674]

It's weird seeing As as SAC

[@gregthegroove]

The Brewers are DEF not going to be an 80 win team. lol what the hell are these people thinking? I do think they’ll battle it out with the Cubs for the division and the Reds in last? 😂 No, they’ll be better than the Pirates. Reds are 80 - 82 wins.

[@NelsonCruz-u3q]

I think yankees 97 - 65 .but not 89 🤣🤣🤣

[@BrokeJoker04]

so let me get this straight....every team but the white soxs is going to beat their projected win loss total?? How will every team but one get more wins if everyone is winning?? you came at this from a feelings perspective, and didn't take into account any of the add/ drops each team had, or their difficulty of schudale. Ill make you a bet, that those numbers will be closer than you numbers>> want to take that bet??

[@BrazilianPacks]

wait, but you are critizing only for more wins for almost every team? i dont think you said even that few should be lower… For someone to win, someone has to lose.

[@kyleknapp1985]

Phillies doesn’t surprise me. Their lineup isn’t very good.

[@joshdudeguy2830]

Idk why we look at this. They missed horribly in 2024.

[@362chop]

So the Twins move up, Phillies 3rd? Cubbies 90+? Oh c’mon! Pecota was a lousy player but even worse forecaster. Thanks as usual Jim.

[@anthonybrown7474]

@jim It’s called a World Series hangover

[@cptjockitch]

The rays won 80 games last year after trading a bunch of starters. The rays are going to have Junior Camenero and the top ss prospect. Im not sure how the rays dont win 90 games this year. At the very least they are always better than the Blue jays.

[@richardwrask497]

You can’t be for real, no way in hell are 90% of all the team should win more. Well, somebody has to lose.

[@Texansfootball713]

Astros will not have a 4.30 team ERA 💀they had a 3.70 last season and the Astros pitcher are only gonna get better and more healthier with players coming back

[@bakermob29]

Well the Sox can’t get worse.

[@CRSTOntario]

Kikki Hernandez where are you going

[@carlowens9720]

Dodgers of course!

[@Sammy_Boy_Smith]

He's done a handshake deal with L.A., hell sign up around the end of Spring training, and get a minor league deal or go on the I.L. n wait until mid May to start in L.A.

[@rodneymorgan313]

White Sox winning 20 more? No way

[@bknsty14]

I’m a White Sox fan. I don’t see them winning more than 37. This team is awful. We will trade Robert and only get worse. Where do the wins come from?

[@djrythm7312]

IT A PROJECTION ITS DOES NOT MATTER DA DODGERS WE CAN ALL AGREE SHOULD WIN THEY HAVE DYNASTY TEAM. BUT DA TRUTH WE ALL PERDICTING THEY R WINNING BUT DA TRUTH IS THEY HAVE TO PRODUCE WIN ON DA FIELD

[@borngoatedbaseball]

My predictions Yankees 90-72 Orioles 86-76 Blue jays 83-79 Red Sox 82-80 Rays 80-82 Guardians 88-74 Royals 85-77 Tigers 84-79 Twins 83-79 White Sox 49-113 Astros 90-72 Rangers 88-74 Mariners 85-77 A’s 72-90 Angels 69-93 Mets 94-68 Braves 93-69 Phillies 90-72 Nationals 73-89 Marlins 63-99 Brewers 88-74 Cubs 87-75 Cardinal’s 80-82 Reds 78-84 Pirates 74-88 Dodgers 104-58 Diamondbacks 92-70 Padres 82-80 Giants 81-81 Rockies 59-103

[@borngoatedbaseball]

How are these predictions? Jim??

[@thomasgaines4636]

Orioles gonna win the division they waxed the division with the offense falling off. They going to be way better

[@mikebattista9570]

They are tough every year this is nothing new

[@PhilNolasco]

Is the New York Mets versus the world

[@nathankahl7878]

To be fair a white Sox jump forward won't take much how many they have to win , 20? Lol

[@robertfry8025]

Ya just go grab Alonso, Bregman, whether they want to come here or not. 😅😅😅😅

[@jeremytiesi1790]

So according to this guy every single team is going to win more games. 🤦

[@BALLCAPSports]

Come on Jeremy. Boston, the 3 AL Central teams, Philly, Milwaukee, Cincy and Arizona are the teams I’m looking for more wins for…that’s 8…leave 22 that I agree with or think could win less games. That was a trolling comment & I gotta think you’re better than that.

[@jeremytiesi1790]

@BALLCAPSports it's ridiculous that you just say they aren't going to lose more games and don't give an explanation. Especially with Boston. You didn't look at their strength of schedule, didn't compare how the other teams in the division got better, just claim they won't lose more games. You do understand how projections work, right? If sometime is going to win more, someone has to lose more.

[@BALLCAPSports]

@@jeremytiesi1790 smh 🤦‍♂️

[@DerbyKnowledge93]

CUBS WIN TODAY !!

[@NickCouchwvten]

Cincy has made good moves then hiring tito who took to young teams to playoffs and world series i think this prediction is bullshi

[@Gabrielavila-q5s]

Let's go Dodgers, Let's go Dodgers

[@Sammy_Boy_Smith]

Win out the decade!

[@billputt3855]

Nothing like buying pennants

[@magicalpilgrim]

Let’s destroy baseball, let’s destroy baseball

[@scottyc1093]

Buying championships isn't the same.

[@Gabrielavila-q5s]

@scottyc1093 go suck on a egg dude..we don't buy championschip we win championship.. that's the bottom line..

[@derekgreydanus465]

redsox & phillies bullpens are bad

[@cosmickeys5766]

They may be right about Boston

[@robertaBooey69]

My prediction Mets and padres don’t make the playoffs.

[@foundthingsifound]

They always whine about stuff selling "so cheap chat, I'm losing money," them and every breaker. It's a standard trope. That said, prices may have truly been affected. But there's enough unscrupulous buyers coming in and taking advantage of lower prices that it appears they've been pushed up to around normal

[@williamgatheist1314]

Phillies are going to the playoffs and the twins are not going to win their div.

[@kyleknapp1985]

If you think Philly is better than Atlanta, 😂

[@Goomba999]

Dodgers aren’t winning again this year. I’ll tell yas why… BOOKIES are a thing. It’s too easy! 😂

[@BnMProductions11]

Maybe instead of immediately arguing with very minimal evidence why Pecota is wrong on Boston. Maybe you should analyze the data they are looking at to come to that conclusion. The people that make these rating systems are generally smarter and have more access to information than a fan or media person.

[@cody0010]

It doesn't take someone smart to know the Red Sox are better than they have projected.

[@BnMProductions11]

@cody0010 Again, do you have any actual evidence to back that up. Maybe look into why they have such a low rating on the sox. If it was so obvious, they would have it higher.

[@dougibele3217]

Phillies finish over the Mets. Also Reds over Cards. Twins ain't winning their division either.

[@bnezz77]

Kansas City will win the Central! And Bobby Witt jr. will be the AL MVP.

[@James-y1i7p]

Bogaerts, Tatis, and Cease to Reds Sox for Abreu, Crawford (SP), Bello, Story, and Yoshida. This trade would help both clubs. Sox would add about 13 mil in payroll for '24. Long term, they're adding a lot of salary, but they're getting 2 righty bats that will benefit from the monster.

[@dougibele3217]

Dodgers at 103.8 seems low...no?

[@Raine370]

Winning a hundred games is pretty difficult, tbf

[@StrawhatDawn]

Yankees wining 89 is comical when we lost 11 games because of clay Holmes lmfso

[@DaveShalim]

Yankees won 100 games last year?

[@DaveShalim]

God you’re dumb.

[@Maker161st]

@@DaveShalimthey should have, that’s the point. 94 wins with a near record setting (negative connotation) closer

[@greatnessdelton1381]

It's really not, lol. Typical delusional Yankees fans. Losing Soto is a humongous blow. Your lineup objectively, is a skeleton crew behind Aaron Judge. Apart from that 60 game stretch in 2022, Jazz has been a league average hitter. Goldschmidt is washed. Bellinger is inconsistent and injury prone. That's who you're counting on to replace Soto? Lol. Fried is an upgrade to the rotation, and that's a nice two headed monster with Cole being healthy. Gil is a pretty good #3, but collapsed in the 2nd half last year. Still question marks with Rodon, Schmidt, and Stroman making up the back of the rotation. You lost Kahnle and Holmes, who were objectively pretty good for you last year, and replaced them with Williams. A top three reliever in the game, tbf, but quantity matters too. Objectively- Yankees 90-72 Orioles 88-74 Red Sox 85-77 Rays 81-81 Blue Jays 77-85

[@Maker161st]

@@greatnessdelton1381 yanks swap Cortes for fried, Holmes for Williams, kahnle for Cruz, Rizzo for goldy, verdugo for bellinger, full year of jazz and the Martian. This is the most balanced lineup the Yankees will have in years and they improved the pitching staff. No team would want to lose Soto but this team took advantage of an opportunity and pivoted well to run prevention

[@manuelvargas5583]

well, my immeate thought after watching your video, is that you are comparing pecota 2025 projections to the 2024 results, instead of comparing to last year's pecota projections. if we compare those, we can see what pecota think about each team changes, for example, they project the phillies to be better than what the projected last year, which seems about right when accounting for the addition of luzardo to the same 2024 core.

[@PhilNolasco]

Yanks will be in last place

[@Shiesty023]

😮mets fans hating on the yankees lol

[@danielfryer8768]

I honestly don't buy the white sox being that bad again that's a little harsh and ridiculous

[@James-y1i7p]

Machado to Yankees for Stroman, Peraza, and S. Jones.

[@joeturner9692]

Dumb people make the same comments every year. Last year everyone said the projections were dumb for having the Rangers miss the playoffs..

[@BALLCAPSports]

@@joeturner9692Last year the PECOTA projections (see my 2024 video) had the Rangers in the 3rd WC spot.

[@joeturner9692]

@@BALLCAPSports You're right, it was Fangraphs who had them missing the playoffs. Either way, fans dumbly complained and were proven wrong.

[@caroloccasionally6301]

Come on the Phillies the Yankees swept them Four games and the was not doing good at that time

[@brandonkiehl269]

Ok? And the Phillies swept the Dodgers. What a weird thing to say.

[@PhilNolasco]

Mets will win the nl

[@blairmcbride5437]

You're dreaming if you believe that bullshit you're a third place team.

[@somedudeontwitterstalkedme3829]

Werd how you treated Cleveland like garbage alll last year, ranking bombed them after every loss and you could not wait to do that again. I think this is my cue to let this go as a source of baseballl because all National media does the market size so why get the regurgiated version, when you chalk out all that money for streaming.