2025 Toronto Condo Market in 9 Minutes

[@FredTamRealtor]

⚡️ QUESTION ⚡️ Are condo prices going up in 2025? 🤔

[@Carolinapetroska]

No they will continue to decrease because of the bad economy, ban of foreign buyers, decrease in immigrants and international students, disparition of investors who are losing money, and overall lack of interest in Canada as a whole. All of this of course caused by the liberals......

[@akide]

No they coming down, down, down, down

[@adamnarbeaux5898]

⁠@@akidesaid the broke @ss keyboard pirate. (You)

[@rustamsoltoev]

For prices to go up, condos need to be bought up like crazy. But who will buy them when everyone is trying to sell and exit the real estate market to invest in metals?

[@Truthmagoo]

The only way they go down is if houses in Toronto go down. If the houses stay the same so will the condos. There’s more people in Toronto who can afford a condo vs a home

[@pi2019]

Not really a loss if its your PRIMARY residence, lets just assume that you stayed in it as your primary residence ($44,000 loss over 5 years is $800 dollars a month), what is the current rent in toronto market for a 2 bed? Its well over $2500 per month (so you would have paid about $150,000 in rent). Calculations like these feed fear in the market and don't represent the actual calculations.

[@janem3575]

That's what I was wondering. You have to LIVE SOMEWHERE as a primary residence. Otherwise, it's a koss

[@magary4er]

+ First time buyer doesn't pay land transfer tax thus 25k should be taken out of the equation. Isn't it?

[@307586040]

Very valid point

[@Geejay22]

Absolutely correct, People like these do not portray the right picture.

[@frankiefaithful]

"Bounce back", why would they need to bounce back? Condo prices need to be deflated and stay there for a long time. Condo prices should be at least half of what they are today.

[@markadler8968]

Condo prices will reflect what the market dictates. There was too much speculation and supply exceeded demand in the GTA. It has absolutely nothing to do with what they should be. Developers are cancelling/shelving projects because they aren't profitable at the moment. Once supply dries up again prices will rise right along with it.

[@adamnarbeaux5898]

@@markadler8968you’re right this comment was from a dueche bag

[@ak1991_Prince]

If that happens all the condos people bought recently would loose so much money

[@frankiefaithful]

@ak1991_Prince Good.

[@teegeeontario1180]

In your calculations you don't consider the rent someone would pay if they rented somewhere else. I've always bought real estate to live in it, instead of hoping for a capital gain.

[@rudi_b]

you hid the real estate fee which is about 4 to 6%. thats 40 to 60 thousand dollar for 1 million dollar home.

[@Dougbell223]

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[@knapicsanner]

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[@HelenaGill-c9p]

Absolutely! Profits are possible, especially now, but complex transactions should be handled by experienced market professionals.

[@Letlovelead831]

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[@JamesShaver550]

Robert demonstrates an excellent understanding of market trends, making well informed decisions that leads to consistent profit

[@DanielMifsud-i3g]

How about Real Estate commission?

[@johnnynguyen7455]

You should include the benefit of using the asset when calculating the gain or loss. Without adding back rental income you are not capturing the whole picture

[@nickdauphinee3757]

Agreed. Or the alternative which is rent. If you rented for that 5 year period how much would that be? I bet it’s more than the condo owner lost if they lived in the unit.

[@hamzamughal1000]

😂agreed

[@Carolinapetroska]

Everybody who bought in 2019 and sold in 2024 lost a lot of money. Bad timing.

[@tatianastarcic]

I recently sold my condo for $400k and i want to invest the money in the stock market. However, it appears the market is at an all-time high. Should I invest elsewhere or wait for a market correction?

[@LUCIASMITH-d1z]

The stock market is risky But staying on the sidelines is riskier. Missing the next bull run will be far more costly to your long-term wealth than getting in at the "right price". Consult a financial advisor if you're unsure how to proceed.

[@richardhudson1243]

Having an investment advisor is the best way to go about the stock market right now. I was going solo, but it wasn't working. I’ve been in touch with an advisor for a while now, and just last year, I made over 80% capital growth minus dividends.

[@JacobsErick-u8r]

Mind if I look up your advisor please? I've worked in real estate for over 25 years and have neglected a major stock portfolio. This served me well when I was flipping and renting houses, however I need a different plan now

[@richardhudson1243]

I've been stuck with the popularly ‘’Melissa Terri Swayne” for about five years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive. She’s quite known in her field, look her up.

[@winifred-k9e]

Thank you for putting this out, it has rekindled the fire to my goal... was able to spot Melissa Terri Swayne after inputting her full name on the web, she seems highly professional with over a decades of experience

[@RobertTorontoYYZ]

If you don't own you rent so the cost of ownership is not a loss per se. You have to live somewhere. That's not a loss. It is a normal expense. I would focus on the actual costs of ownership versus renting to assess the true financials. Purchase price, legals and land transfer costs versus net selling proceeds. Paying $3,000 a month in rent is 'lost'. Over five years that is $180,000. With zero equity. True, there is no maintenance fees, no property taxes, or interest costs but it is still after-tax money when you rent.

[@Imsosmrt1999]

Spot on. Realtor fees make the paper loss worse, but as you say it’s not other investments (stocks, bonds etc): the condo confers a benefit you would otherwise be paying for.

[@mark43294]

If he rented he would be out 180k in 5 years. That unit is 3k per month plus in that area. so he was still winning

[@markconnon-s2k]

factor in realtor fees and legal fees larger loss

[@morrisozmen-yr2cu]

Add real estate fees to the loss 😢

[@michael2275]

Most of those costs are fee for service, that would have been passed through on rent if you rented instead. Only land transfer tax should be counted and realtor fees which was omitted. Terrible analysis.

[@milesapart]

In 2011, I purchase my very first condo in Scarborough for 172k! Later on, in 2016, I was able to sell it for 360k and used all that equity to buy myself a lovely detached house in Durham.

[@ericliu2736]

it would easily cost more than 120K to rent any of those unit for 5 years , which turned out every of them made a profit

[@bobchan1666]

The video seemed to skew the losses greater than what it should be. 1. 1:38 Mortgage interest rate was not 5.29% in 2019. 2. 2:06 Mortgage interest is 3/4 of all mortgage payment. If the property is set up as an investment property, interest payment is tax deductible. Any investor should put the minimum down to be tax efficient. 3. Property tax + Condo fee is either an expense to an investor (or a sunk cost to an owner. It covers building upkeep and some utilities) 4. Did not discuss rental income, no investor is going to sit on a property and not rent it out. 5. If someone is buying to live it in, it is their cost of living vs paying rent elsewhere. 6. 2:36 +/-$1 sq ft is the norm for a well kept building with moderate amenities. But I have to agree, market for real estate transactions is going to be mediocre in 2025. Real estate investment is no guaranteed, those who bought in the last 5 years are still in the red.

[@aa-py7le]

The mortgage rate, 5.2%, this is completely not true. It was in the 3% range in 2019. I know I helped my parents with their mortgage and their rate was 3.8%.

[@janinewetzler5037]

When houses went North of $500,00, I gave up on Toronto's real-estate market. I had alarm bells going off in my head when a real estate expert was asked in 2018 whether home prices were just too much for people to bear, and the expert said no.

[@FredTamRealtor]

I’m optimistic, but also realistic. Thanks for watching. 👌

[@QuickEntertainmen430]

That's also not including commission when selling condo as well, factoring that in, it's an even bigger loss

[@feldhdleh]

Fred, nice clear presentation style and good feedback to your viewers. However, it's clear that you left out a number of factors that are very relevant to the analysis. You should take this feedback (others below lay it out) and improve next time you try this.

[@FredTamRealtor]

Thanks for the feedback! 🫡

[@glennkings566]

The Pre-sale market has collapsed and over the next 2 years most will come due while not meeting appraisal mortgage qualifications. Condo's aren't going up anytime soon.

[@jupitereye4322]

Selling something at a "loss" doesn't necessarily mean it's a loss. At this bear market, one can find amazing opportunities in real estate. That new condo fell less than another property that would be considered a good investment. In Kelowna for example one can find houses now for 600-700k, it is old, yes, but it's a piece of land with a house. I've seen condos, freehold strata less than 5 years old 2bd for 350k. I would ditch my condo at a loss if I were to find a better deal elsewhere.

[@iceamerica7977]

why is the down payment being used to subtract expenses from???

[@Imsosmrt1999]

Great video. You did not include realtor fees. Not sure why. The losses are even worse when you add them in.

[@llee4225]

Your analysis lacks 1 major item which is what the owner would spend if they was renting as they need a place to live. That would be $25K/yr.

[@akide]

Gonna be a interesting 2025. Hopefully the bag holders don’t get more hurt

[@dougpatterson7494]

This is good. Personally I hope interest rates don't need to be dropped further; I would like the Canadian economy to be strong enough to support a prime lending rate of 5.45%. Our dollar has suffered enough. Alberta has generally higher property taxes rates than other provinces but no land transfer tax. There are fees for ownership transfer and mortgage registration but they are much lower than transfer taxes. Including lawyer fees this cost me around $1200 last year buying my first home, a bit under 400k.

[@FredTamRealtor]

I was incredibly surprised to see how little the land transfer fees are in Alberta. Thanks for watching!

[@TheKeafun]

This is true, Alberta is not a bad place to invest and make some decent income from investment into primary or even 2nd rental / flip. The concept of Land Transfer Tax IMHO is ridiculous! I paid about the same of lawyer fees

[@MakusPainters]

recently bought a condo for a little over 720k, as a first time homebuyer thinking the bank of Canada rate will be the same rate as the bank approved interest rate, so basically I was hoping to get the rate for 3% - 3.5% max only for me to find out that the current bank rate is sitting a little over 4.4%. the media placed housing as an investment but how the heck is it an investment when almost 85% of your payment is going towards interest plus you still have strata fees of about $850 to pay! Omg this is ridiculous! It’s a serious liability! The completion date was supposed to be Jan ending but now I am thinking I should just let go of the huge downpayment and never invest in real estate again because the math just doesn’t make any godam sense! Even if I rent it out, the highest I can get is $3k monthly, I will need to add additional $2k to complete mortgage payment. Like wtf is going on in real estate!

[@TheKeafun]

Nobody should have to lose a downpayment, perhaps it might be better to keep and let time of real estate correct itself. even if it is high, the time itself will self heal with growing equity and therefore in the long run you'll have a safe investment.

[@RubeenPandora]

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[@MikeVeracity]

No adjustments for inflation are considered!

[@raracorpuzca8532]

How about tax implication ? Investors can write up some expenses ?

[@mark43294]

Mortgage interest is front loaded Holding real estate long term is always a win

[@TheKeafun]

There are really good short term strategies in real estate too

[@gingerkilkus]

I've been keeping a close eye on the housing market, and prices have been surging for years. It's becoming increasingly challenging for first-time buyers to break in. For someone with a $400,000 reserve, diversification could involve exploring a mix of investments, such as equities, fixed-income securities, real estate investment trusts (REITs), and perhaps alternative assets like gold or cryptocurrency, depending on risk tolerance and financial goals.

[@fadhshf]

It's not just rising prices but also increasing interest rates that are making homeownership less affordable for many. With the guidance of a skilled financial advisor, you can build a well-structured portfolio to navigate these challenges effectively.

[@hasede-lg9hj]

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[@andrewmccoll1582]

There is also the comparison of what one would have paid in rent over that time. It makes the absolute loss look better. In fact, they still may have "lost" less money than had they paid rent which near doubled in this time.

[@truthfinder5515]

The problem is too many condos and condo fees.

[@TheKeafun]

Seeing Tor Condo fees is insanity, nearly $2000 is unimaginable. Then there are also alot of people going on the real estate flipping train which then forces the government to do stuff like LTT, and all these other fees to slow down and reduce the real estate pressure. The postings on facebook Toronto Assignments group, nearly every single one of them listed are listing it at a significant loss

[@MikeVeracity]

Consider using Bitcoin or, at least, gold as your unit of account.

[@RyanLangmuir]

Anyone paying 700k for an apartment deserves to lose money

[@schazilnajam6754]

U r missing 5% realtor / lawyer fess. Also: closing fees while purchasing the place (roughly 10-15k)

[@sangyung6204]

What about the 😅Rent?

[@michael2275]

It's terrible and useless analysis

[@PriyankuBaruah]

Wait but if it was a rental, they would've earned at least 60k in rent over two years, and if they lived in it, they would've saved on paying similar rent elsewhere. Why was that conveniently left out of the math, or did I miss something?

[@Geejay22]

One thing you are missing…How much rent owner had paid if he had not bought the condo? With your calculations no property will ever be profitable !!

[@randomstuffman01]

Yikes ! Interesting. Thanks.

[@doinitforfun888]

The appraisals are coming in low and some buyers, don't have funds to make up the difference.

[@paulwilk6261]

Why no mention of the sea of inventory that is coming to market in the next 2 years that was largely purchased at market peak? I can't see how you analize the market without taking into account an impending sunami of supply that no one appears to want. To answer your question, NO prices are certainly not going up in 2025. Not a great situation for realtors.

[@smity25ca]

Now adjust for 5 years of inflation and dollar debasement, your in a huge negative 🤷🏻‍♂️

[@ninay9783]

Mortgage rate at 2019 was 1.8

[@nelsonfarrell5307]

I am looking at buying a condo in Richmond hill 2025 hope I get a good deal.

[@FredTamRealtor]

Reach out to me when your ready. My team and I can help 👌

[@maxpayne7419]

It’s amazing to me how ingrained it is in most people that real estate is a fool proof investment. Many also fear renting for some reason because they have been told they are wasting their money. In fact, renting is often a better financial decision. But they are bad at math and they just can’t understand it.

[@markadler8968]

It depends. If you buy in a high market and sell in 5 years in a down market like the person did in this video then yes it is a poor investment. If you buy and hold for a long period of time you will be far better off than a renter. If you own a property for 25 years and pay it off even if it didn't go up in value (Which is highly unlikely as even condos will 2-3X minimum in that time period) you will still have the equity of the paid off property vs $0 for a renter. Just look at the stats. The average homeowner in Canada has at least 20 times the net worth of a renter in every age category.

[@maxpayne7419]

@ you are terrible at math and investing. Do some research and enlighten yourself.

[@markadler8968]

@@maxpayne7419 No need to be insulting and I certainly wasn't trying to insult you. Try and come up with an intelligent response next time instead of attacking people that have an opinion different from your own.

[@maxpayne7419]

@@markadler8968 apologies. But you have proven my point - there is a dangerous assumption in society that real estate is essentially a no brainer investment vs renting (eg “condos will 2-3x in 25 years…” and “..the average homeowner has at least 20 times the net worth of a renter…”). This is not factually true. People are getting destroyed in the condo market in Ontario right now because they made poor decisions and assumptions . And you’re busy repeating the kind incorrect assumptions they fell for. Do some research and you’ll learn that renting can definitely be a better financial decision than owning.

[@markadler8968]

@@maxpayne7419 The statistics in my comment were 100% factual and from Google. You should look them up yourself before you accuse someone of lying. In fact the numbers are even more skewed in favor of homeowners if you look at an overall average net worth. Most of the people that are getting destroyed in the condo market is due to the fact they bought in at the wrong point in the cycle and didn't hold onto their property long enough, which was my entire point. They were also probably over leveraged. People that bought in 15, 20, 25 years ago are perfectly fine because they still have equity built up over time. In the long term real estate is a 100% win every single time and the biggest wealth generator in Canada by far.

[@roggomez4312]

no genius here, 20% is 1/5, not 1/4. @ 1:39 - 1:56.

[@Hadi-un8jw]

His maths just isn’t mathing for me!!! How is down payment & paying down principle considered gain??? So if I put down $500k & paid $100k in principle & paid $200k in interest & other fees then I actually made $400k ??? …ehh no!!! It’s still a $200k loss!!! The only “gain” is if your property value gains are more/higher than your holding cost/interest & other fees & expenses! + any rental income if any! ..Plus agent & lawyer fees should also be added in! No one seems to be questioning the obvious maths. Am I missing something? Maybe I’m the only one overlooking something here?? If I am can someone please correct me & explain? I’m genuinely confused as what I’m not seeing!

[@uenonopanda]

His calculations is wrong. The condo was used during the period. It wasn't a real loss. If it is a primary residence. No need to pay capital gain taxes. Still better than paying rents every month. Just excise your common sense.

[@adamnarbeaux5898]

According to you, nobody should ever buy RE, EVER.

[@truthfinder5515]

Not if u live in the property

[@johnrokss8971]

There are 40 thousand new condos closing In 2025/2026 in the Toronto area Just wait for the crash These new condos are worth less then the speculater paid during preconstruction 4 years ago

[@mohammedshussain9087]

Bond yeilds high too so how low can mortgage rates actually get gonna be a 💩 show 😂😂😂

[@xuhaoping4360]

who in their right mind would pick a 5 year fixed in 2013, where the variable are only half of 5 year fixed, even if you include the variable rate increase in 2022-2023, it is still a much better choice. All you calculation are just a cherry picked biased result.

[@etchedintime8047]

Lose the whoosh sound fx.

[@4everdc302]

AI replaces most of these white-collar jobs in 10 years. These condos will be bird houses. Get out of the city and learn to work with your hands. The GTA has always been a boom or bust town.

[@cherifbar]

Canada is the most anti real estate investor market in the world considering the socialist policies of the three levels of government and the fact that the city of Toronto in particular uses homeowners as their primary ATM.

[@nguyenlong-rh3uc]

For someone had bought these comdo in 2019, they would have sold in 2020 or 2021 already for big junk of money with minimum expenses, or at least 2023,😂😂😂 only you keeping till now 😂😂😂

[@Jonnyrockin71]

These city core shoebox condos with way too many amenities that bumps up the monthlies will be selling for $250k by end of 2026. Amenities will be ripped out and repurposed as commercial rentals.