20X Mining Stocks, Rare Earth Wars, and a Gold Spike in 2024 | Gerry Brockelsby Interview

20X mining stocks, rare earth wars, and a spike in the gold price - that's what CIO Gerry Brockelsby sees for 2024.
OreCap Invest is a paying client of Resource Talks.
More specifically, in this video Gerry and I talked about the future of the commodities space and how gold, copper, uranium, and rare earths might perform in 2024.
We covered a few topical issues including the potential for a copper supply shortage in 2024, central banks' buying of gold, how undervalued the mining stocks are, and whatever is happening with China and its rare earths supply.
Timestamps:
00:00 recap
01:45 are commodities still the contrarian play?
05:40 are mining stocks a good exposure to commodities?
07:20 are we going to see another wave of inflation?
10:40 is copper going to outperform gold in 2024?
15:20 what stocks will generalists investors run to in 2024?
20:10 are high-NPV, high-CAPEX assets attractive right now?
23:30 when are we going to see more M&A in mining?
26:10 when will the majors start buying juniors?
29:30 will ETFs be a big part of this commodity cycle?
32:30 which commodity stocks will move first?
34:50 is this space too complicated for generalist investors?
37:17 is the risk-reward on Africa & South America still ok?
45:00 is this commodity cycle really different?
50:10 will the Red Sea issues spill over into commodities?
56:50 why is China banning exports of Gallium & Germanium?
01:00:30 is Argentina a better investment jurisdiction now?
01:03:13 is energy going to continue performing?
01:06:40 what's the simple message?

[@gregfridholm2136]

Thanks again Antonio. Glad to finally hear from Mr. Brockelsby! I do own a thimbleful of his company.

[@ResourceTalks]

Thank you for stopping by, Greg. I've had Gerry on at least 5 times in 2023. It was mostly in the weekly, so maybe you didn't catch that. What made you buy OCI?

[@DNAgaijin]

Eric Sprott got interviewed 2 days back, said he thinks Ag to $200, Au to $8,000 --nice...

[@ResourceTalks]

Really? I must have missed that. What channel?

[@555frontier]

What timeframe

[@App12-qk3xq]

I know it's why I'm selling. Eric sprott is the master of losing retail traders money. Last Uranium bull run he blew 300 million odd of mums and dads money. This guy is one of the most self interested promotion machine's you'll ever hear.

[@jerry866]

@@ResourceTalks He was on Sprott Money almost a week ago, probably that one.

[@bobbiecrider6964]

Well done young sir rock on stay the course....

[@ResourceTalks]

Thank you for all the kind support, Bobbie!

[@skexzies3673]

Interesting observations and a good discussion. Thanks.

[@ResourceTalks]

Glad you enjoyed it, S! Gerry is great!

[@TT3TT3]

Thanks Antonio! Happy 2024 to you and your better half!🎉

[@ResourceTalks]

Merry Christmas & a Happy New Year to you & yours, Inu!

[@TT3TT3]

​@ResourceTalks Just wanted to say that even tho' oil might be with us for a while - I am driving my last gas car- my house electrical is run by hydro at present but soon will be my own wind and solar +will charge my car also and -I'm not a rich person- I'm mostly poor . I think a lot of these old farts we listen to can't see it or don't understand it but things CAN change and faster than we think.

[@ResourceTalks]

How long do you think it'll take before oil is completely out?

[@TT3TT3]

@ResourceTalks The answer to that is beyond my knowledge- Rick Rule used to say peak oil was 2045 and recently I heard him start to say 2065...I'm DCA into Canadian oil and gas juniors nonetheless- good upside and good dividends. Where I live hydroelectric is king -most houses have 200 amp electric boxes There are a lot of electric cars on the road -I've noticed their numbers grow over the years on my commute. I guess for us used to living with cheap electricity and even heating our homes in winter with it -switching to electric cars doesn't seem like a huge deal. For folks still using oil and gas it might seem like a more distant achievement. If nuclear is in the cards in places and not hindered then cheap electricity might help things move .

[@bobbiecrider6964]

@@TT3TT3 People do not want electric cars. The dealers are seeing them stack up on the sales lots. Ford and other are cancelling the EV production lines. We are still a long way from seeing electric take the market over. Even the busses do not work in colder climates. Diesel is still king, and will be for many years to come. So for now I'm buying Exxon, Petrobras, and a small rare earth company from Australia in Brazil. IF NUCLEAR? I have my bets on the table for uranium and now seeing a huge upside on those investments. Time is on my side I'm keeping my powder dry /.. I want SMR and I'm not alone. The day I get a small nuclear reactor in my backyard is the day I will consider buying electric transportation.

[@didlywinkles6199]

Happy new year bro. You're program continues improving, looking forward to more content, especially since funjamentals is gone ....😂 You're fundementals are solid uptrend 🎉

[@ResourceTalks]

You bet ya, D! I wouldn't have known I pronounced it wrong if it weren't for good folks like yourself. Thanks for stopping by & a Happy New Year to you, too!

[@dansilver2702]

Great questions and content. Thanks

[@ResourceTalks]

Thank you, Dan. I appreciate your kind encouragement.

[@higgos72]

Great show, again, thanks 👍

[@ResourceTalks]

Glad you enjoyed it, H! I appreciate you stopping by!

[@reinhardrinaldo350]

Actually, inflation measured by Shadowstats and other private services is ca. 9.5% . The price of gold is also conforming that real interest rates are still negative. I believe something will break and that will drive the POG higher IMHO.

[@ResourceTalks]

I believe real inflation differs from household to household, but I don't think most households are experiencing less than 4% inflation.

[@lowtech_1]

Thanks, very engaging ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️

[@ResourceTalks]

Thank you for the kind words!

[@jvodan]

The real issue with critical minerals especially rare earths is refining capacity. Dig up as much as you want outside of China but you will still be sending it to China to refine. They took the tech from the west but they have improved on it since, they have tech( and the patents to match) the west doesn't have

[@ResourceTalks]

I agree.

[@supermash1]

I like your show. You forgot to mention Australia as a safe jurisdiction to invest in.

[@ResourceTalks]

Australia is not straightforward to invest in for most folks in NA & EU, which is why I've mostly ignored it - to my own detriment. Aussie companies are apparently generally much better, capital is easier to raise, and regulations are better, as far as I understand it.

[@supermash1]

I hear you. By the way, I also heard you when you said your stocks are down. I'm in the same boat - Cameco has dipped significantly since I bought it. Hard to say whether to hold on or dump and wait for a correction. I think it's a stock worth holding though. Also going to hold my Kinross gold (also significantly down today). It's been a decent performer for me though overall. The thing is, a very successful swing trader whose book I've been reading states that if a stock goes down 10% you need to bail out. However I see now that resource stock investing is a very different game than what he does. I hope I have the courage to hang it but 20 or 30 percent losses would be tough to take. One thing I don't think I'll do though is invest in junior miners, very risky and I don't know how to read a geological analysis. These guys always say "Do your research" but how do you learn how to do that? @@ResourceTalks

[@Zanzabar5]

If the miners had value at these levels they would be paying 10% dividends like a lot of oil stocks.

[@ResourceTalks]

Some of them do!

[@Zanzabar5]

The base metals miners right? @@ResourceTalks

[@jquint57]

Who doesn't like a nice bottom? Bottoms up! Go gold, go silver. 2024.

[@ResourceTalks]

Ya think?

[@kamillederoo7013]

It's happening!

[@malekmalek9064]

Always a like friend,hope we bottomed.

[@ResourceTalks]

I hope you & Gerry are right, Malek! Thanks for stopping by! Vrolijke Kerst & een Gelukkig Nieuwjaar!

[@malekmalek9064]

@@ResourceTalks dank u,voor u en uw familie ook een happy,blessed,healthy and wealthy new year❤️🙌

[@CliftonHicksbanjo]

Nice green shirt, bud. 🍏

[@ResourceTalks]

Thank you, Cliff. It's actually a military shirt from WW2. I buy most of my clothes second hand, and this one has a number written on the lapel as well as a few holes in the back.

[@Kastra707]

What are those handful of over finder jr miners?

[@ResourceTalks]

I have a couple of videos with Lobo Tiggre and the like who go in-depth on how to pick your own stocks. Hope that helps!

[@fredfarkle-bp9en]

Greetings

[@ResourceTalks]

Hi Fred!

[@Lyzaaarnew]

I think ETFs will help no? It will guarantee % allocation out to the whole sector, despite Beta Investors not even knowing the ins and outs of companies. It will help raise all ships on the raising tide as they say, but I think these large retail investors will just play Beta, best company, whole ETF and allow the money to self allocate through.

[@ResourceTalks]

Sure, but will it help as much as it did back in the 2000s?

[@Lyzaaarnew]

Im no expert, but I kind of think that due to fractional shares and so many more people have access to buy and sell stocks in a push of a button on their phone, it has opened huge amounts of capital that could pour in. Ofc this might be more of a FOMO stage that we dont want like crypto. Will have to see@@ResourceTalks

[@Lyzaaarnew]

Reason why I think S&P is so bloody strong. So many people are just mindlessly adding regular payments each week / month as it typically outperforms. Exact same with workplace pensions. My UK pension takes some off my paycheck, employer matches my contribution and then the pension funds is literally ALL Mag 7 and S&P. Its why im pulling it out ASAP and taking control of my pension myself

[@gregfridholm2136]

@Lyzaarnew I think you're spot on. There's a segment of the 'regular contributions retirement account' investors who check their accounts monthly, quarterly, whatever; who will see the sector ETFs climbing the rankings ladder, and will rotate into those ETFs.

[@goldismoney5899]

I am all in on Gold and Silver miners as well as physical. FSM, AG, EXK, EQX, MAG, NGD, and on and on....Cheapest sector out there NOW. END THE FED. Gold IS money.

[@ResourceTalks]

What do you think the US looks like without the fed?

[@Zanzabar5]

How about we get to a bottom in the miners before talking about even a double....

[@App12-qk3xq]

These guys are never wrong mate..... it's always some other factor not then getting the timing or the call wrong..... meanwhile for 3yrs a easy 60% up side has been missed while the miners are down 50% = 110% on the wrong side of the trade...... that's a absolute killer of cash. Yet they still have jobs influencing people..... amazing.

[@ResourceTalks]

It will be a good day when it happens!

[@Mrtrancefreak50]

Keeping 2 steps ahead will allow you to anticipate such happenings

[@mikehiebert2176]

We’re at the bottom.02, .03 and .04 cents stocks were available 3 weeks ago heading up now

[@App12-qk3xq]

If maybe and buts....oooh but the central banks are buying......if probably maybe but.... .....oh man I'm sick of these guys. Thanks mate.

[@ResourceTalks]

What do you think it'll take for gold to finally move?

[@App12-qk3xq]

Gold has already moved. Commodities already moved. The companies that have valuable resources will grow naturally now a fair bit of fluff is out of the system. The world keeps turning but listening to some people you wouldn't so. More chats to mining companies and less about the Fed or other stuff everyone already knows about would be great, imo. Melbana energy for example will grow even if crude comes down. That's the type of company people should be searching for instead of worrying about everything outside of their control.

[@robertdagge200]

Very good thanks but people are looking at the wrong miners. While both producers and PM penny dreadfuls (quoting RR) have been utter rubbish, crypto miners have been performing magnificantly -shares like Cleanspark now up from $2 to $12 etc etc. Do investors want an 80% loss (...) on some gold stock producing absolutely nothing but diluting ad infinition any way to pay management bonuses, or multiple gains on miners creating bitcoin? It does not matter whether or not you believe in Btc - other people do. And TBH, listening to both the btc crowd and the gold/silver perma-bull crowd, it's the btc crowd who actually sound more rational and balanced. Also might give an indication of why interest in product-less gold coys with overpaid management teams is tru the floor given crypto miners are tru the roof.

[@goldismoney5899]

Crypto sector....rational? You are very funny. The bit-con will crash along with all the crypto scams.

[@ResourceTalks]

The BTC crowd might sound more rational because they grew up on the internet, so they know how to talk to the internet. That's just a friendly warning that nobody has your best interest at heart.

[@robertdagge200]

@@ResourceTalks Agreed. But the info from the gold perma bulls ihas been incorrect at best, highly suspect as worst. Two of my 'potential 10 baggers' (per the PAID sevices suggesting them) were taken out recently. One produced a premium of a massive 6% and the other a loss (...) of -14%. Potential 10 baggers? Ha!! Even someone as numerically illiterate as myself can tell the difference between +6% and + 1,000%.......Have not seen such levels of misinformation with tbe crypto guys - but of course you must choose your sources carefully. BTW, my comments are general - not hitting on this interviewee.

[@vallieri72]

He talks of the us stock market like there still is a stock market. It's all AI and controlled algorytm propelled by newly created currency today. Someone update him.

[@gregfridholm2136]

@vallieri72 Fair point, the currency creation machine could go into over-drive and triple the S&P from here. A true melt up. But it seems likely that commodities will out perform in such a scenario? The algos rotate sectors too.

[@ResourceTalks]

How do you know?

[@matt11210]

“I want to be involved in any rare earth opportunity in canada/US/mexico”….$UUUU lets GOOOOOOOOO

[@ResourceTalks]

Do you think of UUUU as a Rare Earths play?

[@matt11210]

@@ResourceTalkshonestly, after the MOU announcement last, yes. They are clearly bifurcating their business lines. And as the only REE in the USA, yes. But…they trade on uranium right now. 😊

[@johns5256]

If you can't get good guests, take the day off. I have no choice but to unsubscribe Podcasts that waste my time w mediocre hacks, pennystock players who can't remember the question, and know less than I do -- the worst thing you could ever do. That destroys your brand, better to have fewer guests and podcasts✌️.

[@goldismoney5899]

You are ignorant for sure. this guest was high quality. Go away...please.

[@ResourceTalks]

Thank you for the feedback, John. I'm not sure whether you're referring to this specific podcast or whether this was advice in general, so I'll just assume it was this podcast. If it is, I disagree there. Gerry has over 30 years of experience as a money manager and knows the ins and outs of the industry better than most guests I've had on. He's easily a top 5 guest. I also disagree on the "better to have fewer guests". It's better to talk to anybody & everybody, hear all the different opinions, and build your own strategy based on them. This space is about networking as much as it is about knowing what to buy. I do understand if that's not to your taste and wish you good luck on your investing journey.

[@johns5256]

Thank you for your thoughtful reply. Your point is fair. Obviously podcasts address a diverse audience. I commented from a POV that every minute of my time is increasingly valuable as my supply contracts. Fortunately there are about a dozen thought leaders that never dissappoint, so I rarely try someone new but host did great job w a pc a month back so I subscribed. A solution for me and others w different pov would be an edited or written 5-10 bullet point summary on top. I don't doubt a guests' experience which life has taught me should be heavily weighted, but some analysts or geos are not good communicators. Best wishes and thanks for the opp to clarify, i believe feedback is valuable and diplomacy not my forte. My comment was not intended to disparage anyone.

[@DNAgaijin]

This was freaking excellent. I like your stuff as much as Andy from FindingVF maybe. I'm long Ur, Au, Cu, Ag and Dry Bulk. Zeeeero tech other than the options I get from my work.

[@ResourceTalks]

Thank you for the kind words, Gaijin. Been a while! How are things?