259 | Breaking Analysis: A Bold Plan to Spin Out and Revive Intel’s Foundry Business

[@masterofnone597]

intel foundry shipped granite rapids CPU built on intel 3 process node and its competitive with AMD do you know this dave ? Its the 1st time a US company used euv tech to compete with TSMC for the first time in a long time.

[@BellJH]

Terrible analysis. Why do you think Intel shareholders would vote to accept a proposal where they only get 4.4% equity stake in Intel Foundry when they have already contributed more than all of the other cash allocations combined? Your analysis makes no sense and would never pass in any shareholder vote. They also don’t need any technical expertise from TSMC. They have implemented more advanced technologies before TSMC have (GAA, BSPD). Intel Foundry will break even by 2028, they wont go bankrupt before then. It will be funded by all these tech companies simply using their fabs, it doesn’t need some weird joint equity venture, it just needs them to buy their wafers, which there is plenty of interest in. Their US advanced packaging hit break even last Quarter and will be profitable already next year

[@mhirasuna]

Agree. Intel will sink or swim on their 18A process. The coCEOs say that it's on track. This was Gelsinger's plan, so why was he forced out?

[@BellJH]

@ not sure, my thoughts are he wasn’t good enough at the fine grain stuff and more big picture & bold plans. They need someone with contract manufacturing experience to run Foundry. Also Gelsinger rubbed a lot of people the wrong way in their potential customer base. Either way, this idea of getting some consortium of 8+ different clients & private equity to contribute cash to run a fab with Intel only having a 4.4% minority stake in it is insanity.

[@mhirasuna]

@@BellJH The Chip's Act grant requires that Intel keep a controlling share of their foundry. I think they realize that the foundry is the real prize. The product's division is dying as more companies are designing their own chips.

[@nextcurve]

Need to wait for 18A to ramp and impact products. IF could lose technological and financial recovery momentum with CCG products coming home to roost in 2025 with spinout drama giving TSMC the time they need to continue advancing their lead while Intel is distracted? Could patience be a virtue? Let CCG land Panther Lake to demonstrate parity or leadership? What is the risk of derailing whatever progress and good work that is happening at Intel? Kudos for putting a thought out there... at least it starts debate.