"Minimizing your maximum loss" As a trader, these are the most important words when dealing with risk management.
@leslieleong5522 Жыл бұрын
cut losses!!!! tough tough decision..
@overkillblackjack291011 ай бұрын
Yes, and isn't "maximum drawdown" or drawdown the finance term for biggest single loss?
@gjorgji933910 ай бұрын
Since you are an options trader i presume that you know all about brownian motion?
@nameerkhan99797 ай бұрын
i thought the exact same thing - risk management and psychology makes up 95% of trading
@GallantCryptoАй бұрын
Still, the strategy to minimizing maximal loss lose in the long run.
@muhammadharisaamir39528 ай бұрын
To summarize : 1. What can we do that would result in more benefits and less drawbacks of the both parties? 2. If you are sure that putting your money from now on in the current hand (poker example) will result in more loss, you should stop playing. This is Sunk Cost Fallacy. 3. Third one works when you are competing against a strong opponent. What can you do which can minimize your maximum loss. This is called Minimax.
@chhant73875 ай бұрын
but what if I wanna miximize my minimax in the mamimum loss minimaxing..
@matthewwriter9539 Жыл бұрын
The sunk cost fallacy also applies to relationships.
@jeremydezilwa8595 Жыл бұрын
I was thinking about the same thing. I was also thinking, about the drive to not give up and fail vs cash in your sunk cost. How do you balance that dilemma? Can you turn things around, and confidently push on to see it through... The whole risk-taking ability comes into question. I wish this video evaluated this argument.
@javierreyes786 Жыл бұрын
knowing when to quit, knowing when to concede "defeat" and ask for help, knowing when to say I was wrong - no one likes to lose and it's almost harder to lose than to concede victory
@samoak123 Жыл бұрын
oh I guess I'll be ditching your mum then.
@TheSubpremeState Жыл бұрын
Gut feeling has been proven as a way to communicate with the vast unconscious mind which is like a supercomputer. My father went from extreme poverty to multi-millionaire and one of the reasons I couldn't replicate was he made his decisions without even knowing why. He just found himself unable to do something sometimes like he just knew it was wrong and couldn't do it. He seemed to be incredibly lucky but you don't get lucky almost everytime without some unexplained reason. There were a lot of factors of course. Number one without a doubt was actually the number 1 rule poker. BRM BANKROLL MANAGEMENT. He aimed to save his entire weeks wages and work overtime for "pocket money" . Can't emphasize this enough to young people who hate the idea. In poker a good rule was if you had €100 you can play a €1 game. The odds of going bust are impossible if you stick to this. Obviously in real life you invest most of your bank roll and aim for 20¢% or above if you saved your weeks wages and got a low return like 20 percent you'd have over 100k bankroll in 3 years. With that much to play with you would be a millionaire from just an average wage in between 5to 10 years. Easier said than done of cours. I had a Brazilian working for me in expensive Ireland who earned 480 a week on minimum wage 6 days a week and lived off 20€ . He earned the price of a fine home in Brazil in 2 years. Around 50k. If he rented it in Brazil where interest rates for mortgages were 17% it would have paid for itself in 7 years but property trebled as we predicted so those are just some fascinating ways of seeing how we can build for the future but it always perplexed me as people who lived this way never got to enjoy their money. They became like Warren buffet. Living frugal life as a billionaire!? I don't get it
@midable-mc2cz Жыл бұрын
definitely, 'I've been with her so long might as well just stick it out' - it's human nature I think
@thegreatloll Жыл бұрын
I think a more detailed video would be marvelous. Because what was just here assumes that at least one of the opponents is minimizing the maximum loss. However, what if the opponent's intention is not to win or not to minimize the losses. I know the theory is more detailed than that. This is why I am recommending a detailed video. Thanks for the ideas you bring to the table.
@TheSubpremeState Жыл бұрын
I thought they would talk about the paper,rock, scissors. I'm pretty much a failure in life due to my circumstances of course lol. I just want to brag that I won the first three poker tournaments I played. I'm a treble champ in the casino . I found out after the 2nd game I beat the best guy in the country at that variant (Omaha) after the game. The sunk cost fallacy is very strange as in poker the option to put in the remainder of your chips is decided by pot odds ie you have a 90% chance of losing aka 9to1 of winning and the pot is 9000 and you have 3000 chips left then you need 9to3aka 3to1 to break even. Which is easily converted to 25%(3 + 1)=4 and 1 is 25% of 4. Putting all your chips in equals a fishy 15% loss of 3000 as you will only win 10% putting in 25%of the pot. So whatever fallacy she called it is a losing strategy. She must be lucky or maybe her looks and accent put the players on tilt . Don't send her to Russia as Putin will not fall for her bluffs
@jayanthjio4106 Жыл бұрын
I dont think BigThink produces detailed video, not for free atleast. There are few course on game theory on Coursera which is more comprehensive. Ive started with basic one there, its good
@macforme Жыл бұрын
Aki Elokl: It is clear to me you have a much better grasp of Game Theory than I ever will... so I have to ask: what opponent has the intention not to win or not to minimize loss. Can you give me an example to understand what you mean? Thank you for your time.
@thegreatloll Жыл бұрын
@@macforme for instance, a trivial example your opponent maybe playing to lose. i didn't say this is a sane strategy. However, if you're playing poker for instance and your opponent is playing to lose that would ruin your calculation that he wanted to win. the jest of my comment is you don't have the same constraints all the time.
@macforme Жыл бұрын
@@thegreatloll Well there's my answer.... I am so clueless about this theory I didn't even pick up on the sarcasm.🤣
@thijsjans54577 ай бұрын
My minor was Game Theory during my Economics bachelor's. I added political economy as my elective (also mostly game theory). Can be extremely frustrating and counter intuitive at times, still worth it. I learned a lot, also applicable to daily life.
@oyewaleafolabi9637 Жыл бұрын
That sunk cost fallacy hits hard...
@xyzv8640 Жыл бұрын
Why exactly? This belief is exactly what she describes as destructive/ flawed...😉
@sethtenrec11 ай бұрын
@@xyzv8640 Try being married for 20 years to the wrong person and you’ll see what the original post means
@IKEMENOsakaman Жыл бұрын
Can we just take a moment to acknowledge how Big Thinks always brings us high quality videos?
@TheBillhimer346 Жыл бұрын
Sometimes
@FMFvideos Жыл бұрын
you talk like a bot
@olafcreed4726 Жыл бұрын
That’s a joke. Their channel is entirely clickbait and how to get experts to say words without saying anything.
@TryWithKev Жыл бұрын
@@olafcreed4726 That's your opinion.
@wesleyge1 Жыл бұрын
npc comment
@darknightbegins85 Жыл бұрын
I’m an attorney. The minny-max strategy is something litigators always do.
@nwabunweneosa-afiana5528 Жыл бұрын
game theory is the most interesting concept in microeconomics in my opinion
@Thenobumamen Жыл бұрын
But that’s just a theory, a GAME THEORY!
@cidey1855 Жыл бұрын
Thanks for watching
@SteveStevens-dk1jc10 ай бұрын
Thanks for making me laugh.
@MovementFAV8 ай бұрын
Thanks for being dumb
@chrisklugh Жыл бұрын
I would add on to the looking for a win/win between 2 parties to include a 3rd party. There is always a 3rd party, or more that will be effected by this decision. This certainly adds more complexity to a negotiation, but if done so, you could come out with a better agreement that benefits even more parties. This might mean you might be taking home 'less' out of a deal. But this is best for everyone and you should see that as being part of the reward as well.
@devsinghnet Жыл бұрын
This is a really interesting point. Could you please share a scenario example?
@andreiavasiloaie3284 Жыл бұрын
A situation similar to that is in OPEC (a list of 13 countries that produce oil) where they have an agreed upon amount of oil they must produce in an annual basis. Though since it’s impossible for all 13 countries to cooperate they produce more than the agreed upon amount, minimizing damages while maximizing profit since if they underproduce their fellow OPEC members it minimizes profit and actually helps gain profit for the other countries.
@bLaffix Жыл бұрын
The tic-tac-toe example of the Minimax strategy would be better suited if the end game was a tie, I think. Because right now it doesn't look like minimizing losses, but maximizing winning lol.
@Posby95 Жыл бұрын
My thoughts exactly.
@michael-4k4000 Жыл бұрын
Ok pumpkin! Your NO John Nash girlfriend
@uk7769 Жыл бұрын
"Shall we play a game?" - War Games
@TheDavidlloydjones10 ай бұрын
You are too generous. The tic-tac-toe example is just plain stupid. It is not an example of minimaxing at all. As any fool can see there is one way of winning right away and all other moves lose with the next O in the middle. To be charitable, maybe the guy was tired. More likely he was overwhelmed by the brain rot that has already destroyed the mind anyone who thinks that being a genius on KZbin is a worthwhile ambition.
@Adhil_parammel Жыл бұрын
Appear strong when your weak,appear weak when your strong ~Poker zu
@erdene-uul6691 Жыл бұрын
3 game theory 1. In zero-sum game. You should lose nothing but maybe you can achieve something. Minize losses. 2. You should think it is okay to get out something that you been working so long. Because when you keep working on in, maybe you will be loss more than before. 3. In such moment, think what the best way is to get out from the problem and win.
@AlexandreHernandezvaldez3 ай бұрын
but hey thats just a theory a game theory
@andreiavasiloaie3284 Жыл бұрын
Great vid. It’s also interesting how it works with multiple parties involved since the higher number involved the chances of lower cooperation. For example with OPEC (13 oil country exporters) where they have guidelines annually to produce a certain amount of oil in order to maintain a certain price. Though most of the countries, if not all, produce a slightly higher amount than agreed upon to minimize damages in case the other members decide to produce over the agreed upon amount. Game theory in general is complex and can be probably be discussed about in depth for hours.
@Ahfuric Жыл бұрын
don't they just get punished if they over produce? so its just a mafia situtiation
@arijit2005 Жыл бұрын
I used to think that I am ultra defensive,but now I know I have been following minimax strategy, unknowingly though.
@srivatsnarain4864 Жыл бұрын
Very nicely narrated and scripted. Amazing and Quite Informative video ❤
@alphabeta8403 Жыл бұрын
2:30 What outcome can be good for both parties? 5:55 Zero sum game
@Kbarboza94 Жыл бұрын
Minimax strategy: apply this to your real life! That’s how my brain works. I always think “what’s the worst thing that can possibly happen in this scenario” and work out problems in my head before they potentially happen.
@WonkaTonka Жыл бұрын
Short, detailed to the point and incredibly beneficial Good stuff
@justdad3681 Жыл бұрын
Surely if ur four to six years or whatever into ur PHD (the person at 5:45), is it not worth sticking it out for the extra year for the benefits of a PHD? Like obviously depends how long is left but if it’s less than a year stick it out
@rolandfisher8 ай бұрын
I'll play poker, or do business with you all day.
@TryWithKev Жыл бұрын
Elegant theory. This was a turning point in my rehabilitation. I suffered a very bad Traumatic Brain Injury and I have sunk to the lowest of low. I started to appreciate every day a lot more after I died. For the last 8 years of my life, I saw some deep shit. That mmmade me appreciate each breath I take. TRY.
@TTSS2 Жыл бұрын
Special force?
@manicole72353 ай бұрын
Sunk cost fallacy is interesting because obviously there are times where it applies and should be used however how to differentiate between that and perseverance and resilience to adversity or challenge or engaging with things outside of your comfort zone are all constructive and positive things that can have great returns in life for a sense of accomplishment , confidence , new skills sets , fresh perspectives .. I don't think we should always be focused on the value of a return in a task because our forsite and perspective as humans is limited , meaning we may shut ourselves out of something potentially really beneficial . There are plenty of things I regret not sticking at in life because I could not see the value at the time
@sendyardi5190 Жыл бұрын
The video explains the basics of game theory, which is a mathematical theory that studies decision-making under conditions of uncertainty over time. It was originally developed in economics to understand economic behavior but was later applied to various fields like biology and international relations. Game theory has shown that interactions that we often think of as zero-sum, or competitive, are not as competitive as they seem, and that mutual cooperation is possible. The video also touches on John von Neumann's development of game theory based on a simplified version of poker and the sunk cost fallacy in decision-making.
@Highlyskeptical Жыл бұрын
Game theory results in rule utilitarianism of the selfish without need for morality. Simplified Game Theory Steps; 1. Betray/ Coop (one side takes advantage of the other, "fool me once") 2. Betray/ Betray (both sides fight, better than being abused, "fool me twice") 3. Coop/ Coop (both sides coop, even if they hate each other, because better than fighting)
@conorplunkett9302 Жыл бұрын
what's the song name at 1:28
@TriPham-j3bАй бұрын
Depends on situation but 3 keys : never lose your character ; never grasp more than task ( don't bite more than we can chew ) ; remember what if we don't die
@MatheusLB200928 күн бұрын
The Poker term for "sunk cost fallacy" is "slow rolling". Make the person spent a low amount in each round because it's low, than in the end bet higher because the person won't wanna spend what she already did
@danielderome73125 ай бұрын
What about the sunk cost fallacy fallacy?
@shmookins Жыл бұрын
Look up 'carrot in a box Sean Lock'. Make sure it is the first game. It is very entertaining and I think it is an example of Game Theory.
@StephenKennedy-vp8ks Жыл бұрын
This could be a much shorter video. It comes down to one concept: in zero sum games, seek to minimize your maximum loss. Since they don't expand on that ultimate point, that is really it for this video.
@2bfrank657 Жыл бұрын
Agree. Sunk cost fallacy was off topic, and they didn't really explain non-zero-sum games. I think one of the biggest problems with game theory, is that many will watch a video like this, then focus on defeating their opponent, not realizing that they're actually in a non-zero-sum game, and should be working together.
@leslieleong5522 Жыл бұрын
thanks.. how does this apply to stock market trading? trading is a game involves multiple players all wanted to win at any point in time within a day on a particular stock/few stocks. means what is the strategic moves to win? cut losses sure, but still losses. to win, how to win using game theory mindset?
@renegroulx70295 ай бұрын
okay , 6:25 , Tic-Tac-Toe is a bad example , because there is a simple way that the Os will always win or tie.
@thomasmabika7291 Жыл бұрын
So, while you're thinking about the outcomes that will be good for both parties, the other party unfortunately is thinking about the outcomes that will be good for themselves, now how you deal with that? See, from your angle, the best outcome will be the both of you getting what you all want, and the worst outcome will be the other party getting what they want and you get nothing. But, from the other party's angle however, the best outcome will be them getting exactly what they want and the worst outcome will be both of you getting what you all want. Now which position between these two is better?
@majormononoke8958 Жыл бұрын
Lol, why cant the outcome they want be good for them and you? THey getting what they want, doesnt necessary mean nothing for yourself... .
@marvisjames6935 Жыл бұрын
The secret is you both have to agree at the beginning to look for mutual gain. You listen their side and try to understand them and in turn they listen to you and try to understand you. Then you focus on some objective goals that you both can agree on and try to create as many solutions as possible. If a win-win scenario is not possible you default to a no-deal situation until you both can find an agreement that benefits everybody. Obviously, some people will try to take advantage of you even if you're trying to create a solution that benefits everyone but you just have to accept that as a cost of doing business. In the long run you'll have better business and interpersonal relationships if you look for mutual gain.
@bohimas Жыл бұрын
The Minimax Strategy is an effective strategy is dealing with the wife. It never about winning, its about losing small.
@blacklabelmansociety Жыл бұрын
What the best text book to learn Game Theory? I’m a data scientist interested in the topic.
@bsuywtb129 ай бұрын
Theory of Games and Economic Behavior
@DaveThaBossDTB Жыл бұрын
In game theory add in the element of perspective of AQAL and you have true open minded and open ended thinking. So build on self, outside, societal, religious, etc... perspectives when putting together a game.
@mustafapahad9475 Жыл бұрын
Which one in background music Can u give a name of 0:15 & 0:54
@wayneevans2660 Жыл бұрын
I love this channel! You all are the best.
@dinaabu-rahmeh3152 Жыл бұрын
Do you guys have a podcast?
@АндрейКвасов Жыл бұрын
Should I give up my research in Reinforcement learning, or should I keep up sunking cost but do prevail some day? It not it about dedication and perseverance?
@ChristopherRoss. Жыл бұрын
That depends. Do you have objective reason to believe that it will succeed, or is there a strong chance of failure? If there's a good chance (evidence backed) of success, then yes its about perseverance. If the opposite is true, then its sunk cost. Keep in mind that you define success.
@АндрейКвасов Жыл бұрын
@@ChristopherRoss. Defining success is nonsense. If I am big dreamer and I want to be top most famous specialist or influencer or businessman thinking of RL as a futur of mankind, why cannot I think of this as success and why should I lower my bar. To be honest, I did not do any result during my 3 year unfinished PhD. Is that backed failure? But I do not have miterally anytjing else in my life to think as something valuable. It feels destroying my world to think I cannot achieve that highly ambitious goal.
@ChristopherRoss. Жыл бұрын
@@АндрейКвасов Sounds to me like you have already defined success. Great, now you can determine if its sunk cost or not. All I was saying is that if your goal was to finish the research (I don't know anything about it, so forgive me if I'm misspeaking), but level of recognition or fame and fortune mean nothing to you, then that changes the parameters of whether or not its sunk cost. Transversely If you want as many citations as possible, then that also changes the parameters of sunk cost. That's two different definitions of success. In the end, its up to you what you want the outcome of your endeavors to be, and then measure your likelihood of achieving those outcomes.
@АндрейКвасов Жыл бұрын
@@ChristopherRoss. Thank you, I appreciate your thoughts n this!
@michaelanthony4750 Жыл бұрын
The minmax reminds me of how Rome defeated Hannibal by minimizing their losses and waiting until he ran out of resources.
@chowsquid Жыл бұрын
Kinda like Ukraine and Russia right now. But which side is depleting which side here? Russia depleting Ukraine’s weapons or Ukrainian depleting Russia’s soldiers?
@Posby95 Жыл бұрын
@@chowsquid Ukraine will keep getting weapons from allied countries, so I'm inclined to say Russia will deplete first. You can mass produce weapons, but you can't mass produce soldiers.
@David-cz5to10 ай бұрын
I seriously thought he was going to say “the only winning move is not to play.” Lol
@ryanpmcguire Жыл бұрын
No mention of John nash?
@michaelgabrielcube2338 ай бұрын
sun cost fallecy is really similar to being patient with your losses in trading, it really costed me a lot of losses due to this and also its the opposite when the price is going up, because i go very impatient thinking that the price is going to crash anytime soon.
@mocerlaalacbaino Жыл бұрын
Allow me to ask you a question. How many of you have actually used information given by such informational videos?
@Th3BigBoy Жыл бұрын
I have. Multiple times. I worked in the trades for years, and game theory helped me many times. It's helped me with relationships as well. Probably not in ways that would satisfy you, but it's helped me a lot.
@ClassyGameRacer Жыл бұрын
I rather apply sunk cost fallacy on a relationship rather than the on a bad investment I've made.
@Alex-ll4mc Жыл бұрын
you have the choice to not commit on either
@floppywalrus3426 Жыл бұрын
I thought this would be about the KZbin channel game theory but great video anywyas
@nayyarsidharth7 ай бұрын
a part of humanity remains fixated on givin fancy names to common sense
@_CoasterNinja Жыл бұрын
Missed this episode. Thanks for uploading!
@jakejad44278 ай бұрын
Its only a theory a GAME THEORY
@dinshak865 ай бұрын
You realise what your saying that? It's a theory and not a "hypothesis" or anecdotal evidence!
@jakejad44275 ай бұрын
@@dinshak86 am just quoting mat pad
@mohammadmoradi7344 Жыл бұрын
Perfect short video, thanks!
@ChristopherRoss. Жыл бұрын
Anyone have any recommended reading on Game Theory?
@bsuywtb129 ай бұрын
Theory of Games and Economic Behavior
@fairalbion4 ай бұрын
Looking at Boeing & NASA's dilemma with the Starliner & the stranded astronauts, "Sunk Cost Fallacy" comes to mind.
@kenanaojacob2854 Жыл бұрын
"You never going to be 100% certain where you are, whether you are beating them or have a worse hand" Royal Flush: Enters the chat. . . . .
@TheSubpremeState Жыл бұрын
Or the nuts
@francescocarelli6090 Жыл бұрын
In classic poker you can't be certain, because lowest royal flush beats highest, so you can never be 100% sure.
@TheSubpremeState Жыл бұрын
@@francescocarelli6090 you don't have to be. If you get 1000 to 1 odds of Ukraine kicking Russia out of Europe you need to get investers who don't care about losing a few hundred K. Even tho a stalemate is possibly more likely. It's roughly 50/50 but too touchy a subject so let's talk about red and black in roulette. 50Percent of time you get the money invested minus the big chunk they take. Best poker players in the world still do this for sanity sake. They have backers
@mellow-jello Жыл бұрын
Grit vs Sunk Cost makes life interesting, and also pits us with crossroads, so what is left is not game theory, but gut feeling.
@leonardomultiverso2 ай бұрын
All good, but I don't really think in most case scenarios the ultimate goal of game theory is to have your competitor rubbing your leg. LOL
@selfelements8037 Жыл бұрын
Now this is high-quality stuff yea!
@sailashragukumar3126 Жыл бұрын
I always love watching these video but please use something higher then 1080p for these videos
@jonathanng306 Жыл бұрын
Any books on this u recommend?
@bsuywtb129 ай бұрын
Theory of Games and Economic Behavior
@TheBlue_GibsGui11 ай бұрын
Every thing that says game theory makes me cry because it reminds me that mat pat retired
@daniwalker1268 Жыл бұрын
What about Nash?
@A.I.- Жыл бұрын
It's a double edge sword; A dumb person thinking that they don't want to finish what they started versus an intelligent person thinking that they are wasting time if they continue.
@innercircletradertevision Жыл бұрын
Funny 😂
@mamie6820 Жыл бұрын
Like persevering in a bad relationship for all your life versus accepting the fact and negotiating how to quit with a win-win potential for each to develop new relationships.
@sfllhrz Жыл бұрын
very important explaination
@HaekalAdhaAlGiffari8 ай бұрын
Using 'Minimizing your maximum loss' perspective, so you can feel win regardless of how great your opponent
@edmabjr Жыл бұрын
You're actually saving my life hahah, Thanks.
@zacharydavis4398 Жыл бұрын
Thanks for spending the time to create and share this content
@sutats Жыл бұрын
Tenet style background music vibes.
@rayawira2 ай бұрын
Veritasium made a video about similar topic years ago, but with a lot better writing and a lot more profounfing insight.
@UditiJain1237 ай бұрын
The Sunk Cost Fallacy really hit home.
@mrdraw2087 Жыл бұрын
Is that talk about the sunk-cost fallacy true, by the way? If the estimated odds of losing are not 100%, it's probably worth risking a few more chips than giving up entirely and lose your investment no matter what.
@jbkarate Жыл бұрын
yep. u understand EV and pot odds
@galaga00 Жыл бұрын
I'm sure there are edge cases in poker where you could stay in and perhaps stay on top if you're opponents believe you have a good hand, but that is likely an edge case and I would argue that most professional poker players know that's a losing strategy on the long term. I would imagine that if you ALWAYS folded when you had a bad hand and your opponents knew that, you could probably get away with not folding with a bad hand and get away with it once in a while. Also, from what I understand computers have already beaten pro poker players at certain types of games of poker and that's without them taking into account for bluffing or reading their opponents, etc. Though research that on your own because I know very little of that. Anyhow, I'm sure there are always interesting edge cases with all of this stuff but those are likely exceptions that prove the rule. In other words I'm sure you can find poker players who won a ton of money with a terrible hand but I would imagine those are way less common than someone who wins little battles over time and playing the statistics.
@michaelanthony4750 Жыл бұрын
There are limits to the sunk cost fallacy. For instance, what if she was 1 day away from getting her phd? She thinks she is not going to like it or use it, but if she just holds out 1 more day she obtains it and maybe it benefits her in some way she couldn't conceive.
@galaga00 Жыл бұрын
@@michaelanthony4750 I see what you’re saying but based on the definition here: “the phenomenon whereby a person is reluctant to abandon a strategy or course of action because they have invested heavily in it, even when it is clear that abandonment would be more beneficial.” in your scenario 1 day away from completion wouldn’t be clear that abandonment is more beneficial. Now, if she was years away and had put a year in, and hated it, etc…then that would be a more realistic scenario I think.
@chowsquid Жыл бұрын
@@michaelanthony4750 you say 1 day away. I assume you mean graduation. But is it one day? Because if you hate that career, after graduation, you are likely going to apply for a job and then get a career that you’ve established that you hate. So it’s not one more day but could be a decade or two. 1 day + 20yrs.
@charliedesgagne8523 Жыл бұрын
pot odds tho? dont they contradict sunk cost fallacy?
@rolandfisher8 ай бұрын
Nah, with pot odds, you stay in if you are uncertain of the other person's hand. The sunken cost fallacy happens when you are becoming fairly certain you lost. Let's say you know for certain that you lost. In this imaginary scenario, you glimpse their hand and know you've lost. No matter what the pot odds are, you don't throw more money in. So, with pot odds, let's say you have 4:1. You need to win 20% of the time to break even. But what if you're also 90% sure you are beat? That's a fold, for if you're 90% sure, you will only win 10% of the time. So, pot odds work here, with your certainty level.
@Randomcollectionofletters Жыл бұрын
3:42 You can be certain in poker if you have the strongest hand possible that round.
@jancvrcek1541 Жыл бұрын
yeah I get the point, but you do not know what the opponent expects you to have nor their cards, so you are not sure how to play the game to get the maximum possible. Also, if you win this particular game, you might not notice that the opponents have learned some of your card-strenght revealing patterns, which they may use against you later. So if spoken theoretically, you can never be 100% sure, cause you always assume something about the other players.
@dogukanturksoy1577 Жыл бұрын
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@DynamiteFrog Жыл бұрын
But hey, that's just a theory. A GAME THEORY!!!!
@IntrepidIanRinon9 ай бұрын
Thanks for everything, MatPat. 🥲
@TORTLESSS Жыл бұрын
the way she pronounces john van-neumann like a chinese name 0:28 2:58
@Gordy-io8sb9 ай бұрын
That's.......how it's pronounced? "Neumann", although it may look like "Newman" to the untrained, naive eye, John's last name is actually pronounced "Noyman", so she's correct.
@byeguyssry9 ай бұрын
The problem with minimax is that people are often not fully logical
@Quiengamersall2834 Жыл бұрын
Remember guys this Is a GAME theory
@VijjwalGupta-jv3rx Жыл бұрын
But thats just a theory,a GAAAAme THEorYY
@Brion15 Жыл бұрын
What is street fighter or even super smash bros ult ? Is it a more advanced chess game?
@majormononoke8958 Жыл бұрын
Lol, Street fighter or super smash bros isnt more advanced than chess. Specially considering the number of tactics, long time strategies, openings, technics in the endgame,etc.
@ChristopherRoss. Жыл бұрын
@@majormononoke8958 Careful not to be dismissive. Chess has a finite number of permutations, and only a fraction of those are actually useful in terms of strategy, and only a fraction of those are maximally efficient for strategy. Its why winning chess games comes down to who can correctly think more moves ahead (why computers will beat grandmasters 10 out of 10 times with today's technology). Fighting games on the other hand (though they rely perhaps too heavily on reaction time over strategy) have exponentially more permutations just from fighter selection alone, let alone all the other variables. The strategy (and skill) for these games is very sophisticated, especially when you consider their lifespan compared to that of chess.
@ninirema45326 ай бұрын
Very nice ❤
@vedantvasugupta9434 Жыл бұрын
Leaving this video in between after realising not enjoying the video
@phyphrus1934 Жыл бұрын
The sunk cost isn't entirely a fallacy. In the poker example, if you fold, it's a definite loss
@jerrodzaneplummer7 ай бұрын
Life is not a zero sum game. Much like in the prisoners dilemna and denuclearization all parties benefit from strategies which reduce the likelihood of incurring damages while increasing communication, transparency, and learning opportunities.
@1kennylo Жыл бұрын
Is the first one like a positive escalation
@magnifi_cents Жыл бұрын
As a noob trader, this is helpful
@Maria-yx4se10 ай бұрын
3:07 holy shit ana de armas
@g.ramanan51904 ай бұрын
A game of poker has ZERO uncertainities
@aldenhwang3091 Жыл бұрын
But that’s just a theory
@IntrepidIanRinon9 ай бұрын
A GAME THEORY!
@SatoshiNakamono7 ай бұрын
Imagine two friends read the same book, use the same tactic. It would be a tragedy.
@aobdesigned3881 Жыл бұрын
No mention of Jonh Forbes Nash Jr.? - How sad...
@timhayes45 Жыл бұрын
Reaching back to pick coals out of a fire is a waste of effort compared to cutting the cord once you know its a loss situation.
@arsenalman-n5y Жыл бұрын
Great video guys. Does anyone know any good books to read about game theory.
@KazeN64 Жыл бұрын
The fact that this woman tried to explain the sunk cost fallacy with poker makes me question if she actually understands what the sunk cost fallacy is? Poker is just about the worst possible example where this can happen, because previous investment actually matters (as this is directly proportional to possible earnings) and there are legitimate reasons to play a hand you believe to be a losing one.
@lucascastro4969 Жыл бұрын
I agree that using poker to explain the sunk fallacy without explaining pot odds makes it a bit misleading. But I do think that given a good explanation, poker is a great way to understand the sunk fallacy, because usually in life the previous investments you have made and the uncertainty about the future are both relevant and you have to take it all into account. For instance, if you have made 2 out of 4 years of your PhD and decided to stop and pursue other things it’s s totally different situation from a situation where you just need to finish the last chapter of your PhD because even though you might hate doing it and you want to do a 180 in your career the small amount of work you have to put in to finish it worths that small possibility that this might became useful in the future in a way you cannot expect yet
@generaljimmies3429 Жыл бұрын
But you missed the 4th Game Theory, The "Ness is Sans" angle. But hey! That's just a Theory! A Game Theory! Thanks for watching!
@scalbaldyfruub7499 Жыл бұрын
what is the background song playing during sunk cost fallacy section? Sounds very familiar but cannot place it.
@stu_gahtz1740 Жыл бұрын
I am obsessed with game theory
@golfboyyk Жыл бұрын
No better gift then giving people the experience they are determined to have.
@luthfinashi5558 Жыл бұрын
"they are trying to do the best they can." So, some people's 'the best they can' have a meaning of following stupid TikTok challenge, especially a lethal challenge one. Hopefully they can get their Darwin Award as a reward.
@CuanZ Жыл бұрын
Did you really do the best you could with those sentences?