3 lessons on decision-making from a poker champion | Liv Boeree

[@aaronh5792]

1) Mindful of luck despite ego 2) Use numerical probability 3) Use intuition mostly only for things you've done a LOT

[@kleadfusha8338]

Our egos love to downplay the luck factor when we're winning. Beautiful!

[@ananths5905]

As a poker player, I can't agree with the statement more!

[@Banause1992]

Klead Fusha Its called causal attribution. In success we tend to internalise the reasons and in failure we externalise: i wrote an a because im smart. I only got a c because the questions were mean

[@TheTruthDon]

Hahaha I can't stand her after she chose to steal against an old lady in that game show.

[@claysichorror6013]

It’s not a game of luck

[@markmiller2416]

💯

[@RaquelFoster]

I’ve played over half a million hands of online poker, and I played full time in casinos for a few years. And she’s right. The thing I learned that kinda haunts me is how tragic it is for some people to get lucky. If they won the first night they played and had maybe studied it just a tiny bit, they would spend years going broke over and over. When people win they think they’re a genius, and when they lose they think it’s just bad luck and the world is unfair. Everybody does it. And a LOT of non-technical people are so cocky that they think being able to shuffle their chips or identify which seat is called Under the Gun +1 makes them a highly skilled player who can beat just about anyone. But I suppose we all delude ourselves into thinking we have life figured out on some level, and most of the time it takes us way too long to realize we were pretty ignorant all along.

[@StimParavane]

I was a casino dealer for 5 years. The worst thing that can happen to someone when they first enter a casino and gamble is to win big. The best thing is to lose badly - then they never come back.

[@trinitroglycerin]

bro you just crammed in the most useful info i've ever heard for a site anchor in five minutes and some change. huge W for making it short, clear and concise👁️👅👁️

[@daviddamion8564]

What an absolute beast. Coming from a live poker player, she's extremely intelligent and knowledgeable. She's been around the biggest games for awhile and married a great poker player Igor..do wish her nothing but the best...amazing to see her on T.T. :)

[@floreaciprian9742]

I mean she did graduate astrophysics at the Univeristy of Manchester, so its safe to say the maths in poker is childplay for her

[@stevenundisclosed6091]

I've been a big fan of Liv for years. Great TED talk!

[@JJ-kl7eq]

There is a 97% chance someone will claim to be the first commenter on a TED Talks video. There is a 68% chance two or more will.

[@_aullik]

first to answer this comment

[@12345BTU]

First

[@Frack_Black]

22% of statistics are made up.

[@JJ-kl7eq]

And with 22% of statistics being made up, the other 88% have mathematical errors.

[@Frack_Black]

@@tm73827 😂😂😂 I only get this now.

[@vinayaksinha2255]

The whole title wasn't displayed in the notification. I thought it was 3 decisions from a pokemon... was really intrigued.

[@Finn-940]

Me too!

[@ziadahmedsamy]

Lmaooo

[@cosmicpolitan]

I would go to that talk!

[@theufakefe]

Dude! Hilarious! Lmao 😂😂😂

[@PriyankRupareliya]

😂

[@ALifeOfWine]

It's lessons like these that we all know, but often need to be reminded of.

[@guruofendtimes819]

sociopathic tendencies.Lack of deep emotion and stress.

[@LivinBilly]

1) Don't overestimate your abilities because of easy success 2) Speak more specifically (i.e. say "%chance" instead of "probably") 3) Poker tourney winners wear glasses. Nerds wear glasses. Nerds don't use intuition. Therefore intuition must be bad... (except for easy stuff).

[@lubo7699]

you are now ready to become a poker tourney winner !

[@itsiwhatitsi]

Intuition is more important of what we think.... A nerd without intuition is a not creative nerd

[@Emil_Music]

this is a painfully inaccurate reduction of the main points

[@jankyyard5610]

@@itsiwhatitsi Most nerds have good intuition because they're devoted to study the subject/interest they delve with. Those amount of hours put into work becomes experience. And with continuous work to gain more knowledge, skills, and experience, it becomes intuition that leads to mastery of the craft as well.

[@bmo14lax]

One of the my favorite poker players of this decade, she's awesome.

[@thefulcrum]

This is the first time I am seeing her (though her name sounds familiar). She's a pretty engaging speaker

[@smile_bro6762]

Lol I literally use words like probably and sometimes BECAUSE I don't want to convey any real information🤣🤣

[@industrialdonut7681]

Smile_bro this is way underrated lmfao that explains everything actually

[@sterlingsilver5937]

I use words like that to leave room to opt out. I don't like to make promises or let people down.

[@YaNeK92]

@@sterlingsilver5937 Why not just take ownership and say no to the things you don't wanna do and be honest about it?

[@Phurngirathaana]

That's how most women are

[@marcvesper]

@@YaNeK92 Because you don't know yet. You want to leave the option open.

[@JakeBroe]

Yep, all of this applies to investors as well. Pretty easy to feel like a genius when the market is on an upswing.

[@wongtsh]

I am not a pro, but I used to play a lot and studied a lot about the game. Poker definitely have taught me a bunch of life lessons beside what's mentioned in the video 1. stay focused on the goal - having fun vs making money. 2. adjust strategy according to situation - ppl nowadays always try to come up with formula to success and lot of ppl screwed up because situation can never be the same like poker. every time your opponents are different and their hands are different. tat's y I hate those poker videos saying you should do this when u have AK and you should do that when u have suited connector 3. analyzing - that's what I like the most about this game. analyzing your opponents and exploit their games. 4. you can never escape from tipping, have to tip the dealer when you are trying to make money at the table. hey why don we tip the floor manager. He is making sure we have a fair game

[@welovelibraries4556]

Too be honest the best poker players don’t have souls. Great short talk. I’ve been a profitable poker player for over a decade & using my gut is a huge part of my success.

[@thralldoomhammer7250]

4th lesson: Everything you do conveys information. You can't be all loosy goosy, eating a sandwich, or checking your phone.

[@dhruvilshah2478]

Mastering the class 😂

[@adarsh5265]

Hey Yo Daniel squad 🙌🙌🙌

[@ashwindsilva1570]

BEST COMMENT HERE😂😂😂

[@darthdredz]

Be quiet kid.

[@johnhoumis275]

But I like sandwiches

[@qutuz9495]

And the award for the least nervous TED speaker goes to...

[@TheTruthSentMe]

Nah, she was probably (60%+) nervous, too. That's just her poker face.

[@nhdarling2]

TheTruthSentMe puh puh poke her face

[@sabr2211]

@@nhdarling2 puh puh poker face

[@DjJooze]

Adderall , coffee, trying to appear as an ambitious professional

[@deanstamford6539]

Poker players don't know how to speak out in public or hold s conversation with other

[@Salted_Potato]

Well spoken, insightful talk.

[@thefulcrum]

Great points and I'm guessing, if you had more time, you'd go into these in more detail. re: quantifying certainty, while most people don't use numbers. I feel like when most people say "I'm 90% confident", that they don't have a tangible idea of what that means. For that number to have any real meaning, it makes sense to track your predictions and then follow up with yourself to see how many hits and misses you have. Similar to this, when it comes to trusting one's gut, I think having experience is important, but also following up with the predictions your gut makes and calibrating it.

[@TheGoodfella2012]

5:11 Malcom Gladwell's book Blink actually addresses this - for the bigger decisions in life, go with your gut.

[@gigglysamentz2021]

I use percentage probabilities when planning and explaining. My friends understand them better XD

[@alexmarkeloff5970]

Liv was a TED speaker! WOW! I'm gonna look this video now) She's extremely smart! :)

[@pokerbruh]

Yes, yes and yes! TED, poker, and Liv :)

[@PrimiusLovin]

There's a 69% chance people will take your opinion seriously if you look this good in real life.

[@Tirandodelhilo]

bullshit.

[@soulreed]

She does

[@aolindo]

@Marlene Cacho that means Primius's 69% comes 49% from males and 20% from females.

[@sanket144]

Well by the time they read your comment... the number increases to 76%

[@OneOfUs0000]

There's a 90% chance people will think you're an intelligent nerd if you wear eyeglasses. Take a look at the photos of those winners...

[@Mathijs303]

I remember that 2010 tournament win; that was a monumentally good ted talk.

[@chopincookies]

Liv Boeree is so lively-and what a personality! I like her being on stage; she resembles very much a person I know in theatre.

[@bryangomez1887]

Beautiful, intelligent, confident, and successful. This is what a high quality woman looks like.

[@benzpinto]

70% of the viewers find her attractive

[@seankauder9721]

*99%

[@akinjidesleek]

😅I didn't,until I read your comment

[@abhimanyukarnawat7441]

100%

[@anoridinaryhumanbeing70]

No...not 70 percent... Only perverts like you.

[@harishdavinci8290]

I don't Know. So finding someone attractive is pervert now ?

[@huycuongnguyen7796]

Many thanks for your advice, Liv Boeree. Love you so much. We don't have any data to be based off.

[@zlozlozlo]

"I'm really tired of looking at Live Boeree's face" said no man ever.

[@thejo494]

except jason mercier

[@marklittle8805]

She is a beautiful and smart lady

[@brickuz]

If you actually meant well, thanks for a good thought but please read something like the following before you write compliments again (if you didn't please read it anyway since it might help you in your relationship with colleagues, your wife, your daughter, your friends etc.): www.bustle.com/articles/89745-11-sexist-and-degrading-compliments-that-women-get-at-work-that-really-need-to-never-be

[@benzpinto]

@@brickuz what has the world come to. its now sexual harassment to compliment a woman for being a woman at work? so now we should compliment women like men? oh geez, sarah. u r so manly i want to be just like you.

[@moladiver6817]

@@benzpinto Or how about just showing women some fucking respect? Are you even able to talk to women without some other agenda? If you can that's great but your short-sighted comment clearly makes me think otherwise.

[@anirbanbhattacharya9185]

1:40 You weren't overestimating yourself. That's nearly a typical Control Systems graph with a first peak overshoot basically being the highest point of your graph, and then a series of lower and lower overshoots, later settling down to within the tolerance band. Very very nice. Careful, methodical, ruthless, and utterly practical, rationally so, always. That is the way to go. When going for the big ones, the first peak overshoot is where you hope you'll land, the eventual low is what you prepare for, the worst case scenario so to speak, and the tolerance band should always be, probabilistically, higher than where you started. High chances, low reward is always preferable to low chances high reward. Because despite what every single success story on stage tells you, no one hears from the tens of thousands of failed gambles that never made it off the ground. Take care of yourself always. We have come a long long way from the medieval times. It's time we put our mathematics and our scientific brains to use. Guys, this is what even my friends, in Arts and Commerce say. Mathematics and Physics, also programming are very nice tools to have. They open up avenues, and interdisciplinary routes that you would not even contemplate otherwise. Life is irregular so why would subjects pertaining to what we do with it be do neatly divided into non-interacting piles? They interact, to create something truly ground-breaking. Remember Einstein dreaming up Newton and Maxwell together? Of how watching stationary electromagnetic waves, if you moved at 'c' in vaccuum violated Maxwell's laws? There is never a reason to not cultivate your mind. This is the true fruit of our times. And to be able to contribute to that field is what is my dream. P.S. There is a 90 per cent chance someone is going to say, and I quote- "No one cares."

[@farrastaufiqurrazak9531]

I enjoyed reading this -- never thought of em before. Thanks!

[@anirbanbhattacharya9185]

@@farrastaufiqurrazak9531 You're welcome! This gets it right even down to the initial dead time where she was still hesitantly figuring out the baseline rules, in the initial part of the graph! Cheers :)

[@ocklind]

Good talk Liv! Especially the part about intuition

[@Kane-ib5sn]

perhaps, the most interesting talk on TED. so much packed into such a small syllabus...

[@GreggJaden]

The data from intuition is your souls wisdom 👌🏼

[@FelipePereira-dr7rj]

Think, fast and slow. Great book. :)

[@aaronjg682]

Poker is a results oriented game but can be boiled down to process. If you can get your process right (your skill level, the right playing style, the ability to adapt when needed) you can be successful. Trust your process but be prepared to alter it to suit.

[@Marjopolo302]

Now......... Imagine TONY G up next with his presentation.......

[@user-xr4bq3eo7s]

he would say its all about heaart and commitment

[@gusfalk]

lmao tony

[@olinater5]

Tony G’s Ted talk: why you shouldn’t overplay king jack. Also how to get on your bike

[@gusfalk]

@@olinater5 how to get on your bike hahahahhaa

[@seanupton709]

You are gone, gone gone !

[@brionche8568]

By far the prettiest woman in poker

[@mattcwell]

Brian Poland Up there with Victoria Coren Mitchell.

[@yourdaddy.956]

Not without makeup

[@giannismauropoulos3207]

Samantha abernathy is the most beautiful

[@benlloyd9448]

Fatima De melo any day

[@sunhengtain]

I had to rewatch the video in order to absorb in what the speech was about. But on my... she is a work of art. If I have girlfriend this beautiful and smart, I'll definitely consider of putting a ring on it.

[@blackpearl0803]

Amazing talk , loved it very much 😍

[@skrtskrt925]

i’m such a liv fan boy. go liv go 💋

[@levanmelikishvili4373]

Nice talk overall. Value of intuition depends how well informed and trained it is. For example when one is trying to make intuitive decisions in a new field, it's very unreliable and crude tool, but that very intuition, if it is based on years of experience and practice, can be much more effective than slow analytical process, as it can utilize huge amount of data that would have been almost impossible to analyze on conscious level. In poker utilizing math and statistical probabilities is definitely very important and if one seriously want to play this game one should become very good at it. But I think role of effective intuition in this game starts after this phase is mastered. When everyone on the table is able to make this simple math, that is when trained intuition can play crucial role. Based not on sentiments, but on the huge amount of experiential data + extrapolation of that data etc. So to recap intuition can be based on biases and sentimentality and be unreliable, but it can also be very powerful and pretty precise tool when properly trained. Also the accuracy of probability percentages heavily relies on trained intuition. The scenarios that Liv is providing (3:04) are good examples. It's close to impossible to take into consideration (especially without using computer and complex data processing) even crudely all the variable factors to give estimate percentages if someone will loose badge, live to 100y etc. But using trained intuition, one can selectively choose couple of important variables like: facial expression, gestures, age, position of badge, average percentage of badges being lost on such events, genetics etc. and give somewhat adequate probabilities. So useful analysis uses intuition, but good intuition also uses analysis. Because if person in general isn't prone to adequately interpret experiences, he/she may end up with "ocean" of distorted and unreliable data. Thank you for sharing interesting insights.

[@chriss2295]

She looked in the mirror and thought “I’m 100% hot”

[@elonmusk352]

she's also a astrophysicist

[@MuscleBandit]

It takes a probable amount of wisdom to realise we know very little in reality. Liv ❤

[@3rdeyerap]

Wow she's beautiful.

[@mhtinla]

Keira Knightley of the Poker world.

[@kulik03]

Yes, very rare for an English girl

[@P1I2E3R4R5E6B]

Meh.. :/

[@THELANKANCOMRADE]

3rdeyerap remember they get dolled up for these things

[@nicoleavery7238]

kulik03 that’s fucked up

[@kibuds]

amazing to see her on T.T

[@nyanity]

This was an incredibly good ted talk

[@dksculpture]

Brilliant, clear and concise.

[@SNRPLATFORM]

The rope that holds you when you are weak weakens with time so be strong!

[@Ou8y2k2]

Never trust a fart.

[@dogloverjb6873]

what a great and interesting speaker.

[@Parseenfroo]

Mesmerising, for so many reasons.

[@circa_76er]

The only reason im here is because the presentation looks soooooooo good.

[@davidh6300]

I love your motivational quotes, they make sense.

Liv, you transpire confidence!

[@guruofendtimes819]

I played 25,000 online poker games safely and won 24%. So simple math will tell you the Winnings from those games must be more than 76% of the losses. Very difficult without bluffing.

[@52factorial-prob]

wow, Liv is a data lady as well as a poker player. Love it!

[@Marc-uw4lw]

It’s not right to say your intuition has no data. Your “gut feeling” is the result of a fantastically complicated subconscious evaluation of everything your brain has available, from knowledge, previous experience, probabilities, risk/reward, etc... It’s doing far more than you can process consciously and it’s doing it in the background while you’re still mouthing “hmmm”. There’s been talks on “gut feelings”, probably on TED. If something is too complex to evaluate consciously, your gut is a good, albeit unclear, alternative. The problem is you can’t cross examine or defend a feeling that your brain served up subconsciously without providing any logic. The “soul” I would’t trust because science can’t find it 🙃

[@justiceforall3739]

Love Liv Boeree!

[@xeroxre6837]

Intuition is subconscious thinking and can be extremely effective on even the most complex problems But it can be derailed by triggers, such as emotional stress

[@Anand-qb1wp]

Couldn't see point 3 slide because of KZbin suggestion overlay.

[@Yash-m2ur]

I hate the Good morning/ messages giving daily dose of guidance even though you don't need it! Thanks for turning them down👍

[@akash_goel]

She looks like Jack Sparrow's Oxford educated sister who chose high stakes instead of the high seas 😂😂😂

[@marjanovic9026]

What is luck? I hear about it all the time, and still nobody confirmed how does it formed. Luck is a combination of hard and smart work, definite decision on your goal, persistence, faith, positive mental attitude, desire, self-talk, confidence, imagination, specialised knowledge (not a formal education), integrity, honesty, habit, etc... I like when someone put all of this in one word called "luck" in order to explain his excuses for not achieving anything meaningful in life. Most often people who failed to define others who keep trying and succeed as lucky, as the people who gave up on money trying to give a financial advice or the advice about how life is to be lived.

[@norkci8090]

so its LUCK, QUANTIFICATION and INTUITION. very nice talk

[@devilevic]

Very good talk!

[@culture-jamming-rhizome]

"The future is unknown but you can damn well try to estimate it" When making decisions I try to approximate probabilities of future events 94% of the time.

[@giorgionapoli85]

I knew there was Tim down there!

[@serendipitous5545]

I could not seethe last picture she was presenting at the end of video because of random recommendation of other ted talks

[@YThates]

I don't care if she got her success from having rich sugar daddies and being hot or if she got paid more than she should've for any victories she may have had in her poker career "for being hot" as some weird people keep saying. I came here for the video expecting to be told stuff I already heard a thousand times and she totally went past my expectations in that short time. I'm grateful for this. But lets be real though, the dude that jumped out his seat first to clap looked like he was pleased by both her great speech and her looks. His face was beyond what I've ever seen in a ted crowd lmfao

[@mehdimehdikhani5899]

the guy with glasses is her boyfriend. the other guy is probably a relative too.

[@luisfelipelara]

Happen to me in the stock market where I thought I was so brilliant

[@RickyBobby213]

Same. Was up on Put options in march, and kept buying puts. Ended up losing all my profit and some

[@trey54321GO]

I trade the markets for a living and that is the reason I watched this video. The similarities between professional poker playing and trading are real.

[@sxyy2559]

@4:21 that's an understatement for Christoph Vogelsang (bottom left)

[@stupidystu]

Now that did deserved a standing ovation, thank you Liv and thank you Ted (100%)

[@Mq6vL9Bu]

So, so true. We undervalue the role of dumb luck when we're having success. And there are totally benefits to quantifying odds and risks.

[@differentcreature7553]

she is freaking awesome!!!

[@croz711]

She makes some good points. Does anyone think she’s read the book titled, “Blink”?

[@Larry21924]

This is nothing short of extraordinary. I came across similar material, and it was absolutely breathtaking. "Game Theory and the Pursuit of Algorithmic Fairness" by Jack Frostwell

[@sauravdebnath6558]

How do you not downplay your luck and simultaneously not overplay your intuition?

[@emadrami]

She can be a good Hollywood actor

[@akash_goel]

If you guys like this video, do checkout Verisateum's video on the importance of luck in success. In a nutshell, it argues for paradoxical thinking - assume confidence before you do something, but be grateful once you achieve it - as luck probably played the greater role in the end, all things being equal. So you gotta bring your A-game no matter what, luck is that extra something that is always needed to stay ahead of the crowd.

[@adielwilson8749]

I actually speak in numbers too lol. It's very important to be specific

[@DavidBeckman7]

Seeing Igor there was kinda wholesome.:)

[@fochoac]

From what part of England is that accent?

[@christopherallen9580]

Harry Potter

[@Izzy-qf1do]

95% dudes clicked because of her picture. 100% chance I did.

[@GregoryTheGr8ster]

U got me with that one!

[@rahulthukaram]

probably...... by probably, I mean 101%

[@therenaissanceyorkshireman9278]

The word probably means, 'a more than 50% chance but less than 100% chance', so it's meaning is quite specific. Granted the difference between 51% and 99% is pretty big but they are both probable. I was an English teacher for over 20 years and have seen people getting this incorrect with alarming regularity.

[@beachboardfan9544]

WOoo that face with that accent 😍

[@thetessellater9163]

Nearly 4 million dollars in winnings and such natural beauty, lovely.

[@tsunamininja]

Short and to the point

[@ifstatementifstatement2704]

Gonna use a spreadsheet to do an analysis before I get married lol. Gotta make sure I’m marrying the right person.

[@48tho-averysalak39]

@ 4:18 damn she just roasted Kempe, Ike, Voggelsang etc 😂😭😭

[@extremeforlife8563]

Camera is a bit blurry at times?

[@adamcurtis83]

I stayed here because my eyes wouldn't let me leave!

[@iqbalmahmud8302]

Truly brilliant advice ...

[@NocyMusic]

Play your game and if you are lucky that day getting good cards you will win no matter what and if you are not lucky just take the loss and start all over again next day.

[@MrKendoex]

Luck, quantification, intuition

[@TheLivirus]

Her posture is fantastic!

[@akashAkash-gb9oc]

What the heck...I won two matches online and I thought i was the best...and youtube recommends me this video....oh god lol

[@MoosaIslamic]

1. Don't overestimate ability, because there's always luck 2. Think in numerical probabilities 3. If in doubt, do a Cost-benefit analysis

[@Noone-of-your-Business]

Well said.

[@marlonfolive]

When everything becomes data and numbers, I'll be there, gladly holding my bleeeding heart with my hands.

[@yourdailymusic6906]

Nice talk