43% Of Businesses Can’t Pay Rent: ‘We’re In Recession’ Says Economist Adam Kobeissi

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Adam Kobeissi, Founder and Editor-In-Chief of The Kobeissi Letter, discusses the challenges facing the real economy, and his outlook for stock markets.
US Small-Business Rent Delinquencies Rise to a Three-Year High (Bloomberg): www.bnnbloomberg.ca/us-small-....
*This video was recorded on July 1, 2024
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0:00 - Intro
1:17 - Bond market
5:05 - Fed policy
7:05 - Inflation outlook
9:27 - Labor market
15:14 - “It’s a crazy world”
16:35 - Stock markets
20:10 - Recession vs. Soft landing
23:20 - Small businesses can’t pay rent
26:14 - Banks
27:46 - Asset allocation
28:43 - U.S. dollar
30:00 - Bitcoin
#stocks #economy #investing

[@TheDavidLinReport]

Sign up for an IRA with iTrust today using this link: itrust.capital/David Are you noticing a rise in small business shut-downs in your city? Comment below and don't forget to subscribe. FOLLOW THE KOBEISSI LETTER: Website: thekobeissiletter.com Twitter (@KobeissiLetter): twitter.com/KobeissiLetter Instagram (@kobeissiletter): instagram.com/kobeissiletter/ Facebook: facebook.com/KobeissiLetter KZbin: www.youtube.com/@KobeissiLetter

[@issenvan1050]

David, how should your BTC perform during a recession?

[@wisdoma4860]

LOL, MOST PEOPLE WORK REMOTE, WE DONT WORK FOR SOME COMPANY, MOST OF US WORK FOR OURSELVES. DYOR.

[@user-dh6jb6tz4g]

I have been in retail real estate in Canada for the past 5 years. Industry: quick service restaurants. Since Feb 2024, I have been approached by multiple restaurant operators asking for help in getting the rent reduced. It has not been easy.

[@888strummer]

This is a very good guest who has a lot of common sense, which some guests don't have. But for more credibility, a link to the claim that 43% of small businesses did not pay their rent in full in April; should be provided

[@TheDavidLinReport]

@@888strummer Thanks for watching. The article that was cited is from Bloomberg: www.bnnbloomberg.ca/us-small-business-rent-delinquencies-rise-to-a-three-year-high-1.2065864#:~:text=The%20Small%20Business%20Rent%20report,full%20due%20to%20economic%20headwinds. It's now also in the description.

[@AlvarezDanuta]

Transfer of wealth usually occur during inflation and market crash at times like this. So for me,this is time for aggressive investment. The more stocks drop, the more I buy. I'm just focused on making better investments and earning more as recession fear increases.

[@mayalucia-]

Investing without proper guidance can lead to mistakes and losses. I've learned this from my own experience.If you're new to investing or don't have much time, it's best to get advice from an expert.

[@EsmeraldaEsmeralda-w]

You have a very valid point, . Initially, I began investing independently and experienced significant losses in the market for a considerable period. However, I eventually made the decision to engage the services of a financial expert, despite my initial skepticism. Surprisingly, I managed to outperform the market by over 9%. At first, I considered it a stroke of luck, but this success repeated itself for two consecutive years. As a result, I have since continued to rely on investing through a financial expert.

[@RomeroCarmen-4]

Glad to have stumbled on this comment, Please who is the consultant that assist you and if you don't mind, how do I get in touch with them?

[@EsmeraldaEsmeralda-w]

Svetlana Sarkisian Chowdhury a highly respected figure in her field. I suggest delving deeper into her credentials, as she possesses extensive experience and serves as a valuable resource for individuals seeking guidance in navigating the financial market.

[@Adrianaluca-um6ny]

I just googled her and I'm really impressed with her credentials; I reached out to her since I need all the assistance I can get. I just scheduled a caII.

[@clownworld33]

I do not think anyone understands the magnitude of trouble the economy is headed.

[@issenvan1050]

Some people do, most don’t…

[@erichart5587]

I agree. Going to be bad.

[@alphaomega1351]

No worries... the government will simply print 🖨 money 💰... making things even worse. 😳

[@kiwicam6419]

Just widening the gap between the haves and have-nots.

[@nonexistent5030]

Why not just become a lender then. The government is paying you 5% to fund its way toward destruction. Seems like an easy trade to me. Resets every 1-6 months until opportunity is ripe.

[@kali542]

labor market numbers is a joke. These jobs do not provide a livable wage. My father was a high school drop out in 1954 and was able to walk in to a career in sales, built a 4 bedroom house at age 25 and had 3 kids and a stay at home wife by age 30. He retired with lots of money from riding the real estate magic carpet. This was the AMerican Dream. It is now dead.

[@5dc61]

I think the American dream is alive and well, except that it has evolved. Many are still trying to figure it out, including myself.

[@richardhobbs7107]

@@5dc61 - You are still trying to figure it out because it does not exist as it did in the 1950's. That is @kali542 's point. Our economy has been eroded by the 'Fed's' intentional inflation (2% being optimal) since 1913. Yup, an once of Gold was $20.00 back then. Going for $2,300. now. Ouch ! Yes it has 'evolved' . . . . it's called 'theft' .

[@tinaevans825]

We are at the end ofva 100 year cycle if our fiat currency. The birth of the federal reserve in 1913 has done nothing but slowly erode our currency, this soon to be hyper inflation will be shocking to many Americans. Our currency is worthless, and businesses can't keep up with wages to hire staff. We are in a planned demolition. Few will greatly profit, most will lose everything. Great monetary reset ahead

[@RealROI]

Dead a few decades ago and now the empire is imploding

[@RealROI]

No need to worry. The Defense (Offense) budget for death. Division and destruction around the world will still increase.

[@elsegreve9455]

The job number is manipulated. Full time job is down, part time up, does a person who have 2 jobs count double? Government is hiring private companies laid off. Average Joe is hurting

[@roegoleg]

The stock market has finally reached Ponzi Scheme status.

[@prolific1518]

Bingo

[@RetardedApe69]

So has th dollar! Lol

[@5dc61]

Even a bigger reason to sideline your money until everything corrects significantly. There is a reason WB is holding more cash than he ever has before. Great buy in opportunities coming I think. Waiting is the game.

[@keyisersoze]

Only the stock market? Have you tried to buy a house or bitcoin? Tried insurance? The economy is just a reflection of the money, not vice versa.

[@nw6091]

Wall Street has no idea what Main Street is.

[@user-oy4vx8zt8k]

When It Is Deemed A Recession It Will Be A Depression When It Is Deemed A Depression It Will Be A Collapse

[@benstanley37]

Read the book “When Money Meets History “ eye opening

[@user-oy4vx8zt8k]

@@geocam2 For Decades America Has Hemmoranged Great Paying Manufacturing Jobs To Canada, Communist China Mexico At The Same Time Importing European Vehicles Japanese Vehicles Televisions Radios Electronics Shipping American Jobs To Communist China Importing 10s Of Millions Of 3rd World Legal And Illegal Immigrants America Was Transformed From A Solid Middle Class Manufacturing Economy To A Service Industry Economy. Years Ago Many American Families The Fathers Went To Work The Mother's Stayed Home Raised The Children Middle Class House Vacation 1 Time A Year And Still Saved Money For Retirement

[@user-oy4vx8zt8k]

@@geocam2 Millions Of American Adults Are Trying To Feed Their Families Housing Vehicle Insurance Fuel Maintenance On Service Industry Jobs That Were Meant For High school Kids Or College Kids Trying To Buy A Vehicle School Tuition

[@user-oy4vx8zt8k]

@@geocam2 Inflation Is Rising Faster Than American Workers Pay Checks

[@user-oy4vx8zt8k]

@@geocam2 Millions Of Americans Working Full Time Jobs And Have Children They qualify For Food Stamps Subsidized Healthcare 50% Divorce Rates

[@vineshnaidoo9402]

They want all small to medium businesses, farmers and manufacturers so huge corporations own everything

[@phillB]

The loss of full-time employment is way more critical. I think than most people realize. Many people without a full-time job will have either minimal health insurance, or no health insurance at all. This is going to squeeze both the medical system and bankrupt many of the people holding multiple part-time jobs. This will not play out well.

[@eponaepona]

It is getting ridiculous the extent to which the whole economy is staged 😂

[@eponaepona]

@geocam2 don't jump to conclusions. I'm not American and I am not thinking American economy. Center of the universe is not in America

[@dank3823]

Thy economic collapse is starting to gain speed. Job segment is snowballing. A rate cut isn't going to help. Too late. Thanks feds.

[@prolific1518]

The Political Reserve will hold off on rate cuts because of what it signals until after the election. They're doing everything in their power to help Biden get reelected.

[@theunbearablebull]

lol

[@charlespatton4470]

Why are you blaming the Fed for consumer behavior and government unlimited printing. We deserve what we are about to get.

[@theunbearablebull]

@@charlespatton4470 Because he's another dumb citizen who just wants to point a finger, just is too stupid to know who to correctly point it at.

[@ovrskr]

@@charlespatton4470 FED kept rates at 0 for a decade, fk fed

[@onetruecalling]

The cost of commercial rent is so high, it's hard to imagine how any small business can stay afloat. The next domino to fall will be the commercial landlords, then the banks

[@level1life79]

I'm the Controller for a midsized manufacturing company, trust me when I say we're barely scraping by......

[@joeysocks5718]

There were lots of analysts calling the market strong and unstoppable in 1929

[@theunbearablebull]

This dumbass kid pulled out 1929 haahahaaahha

[@RobertojavierSilvaharth-ub3pz]

If half of US can't pay rent, I say we're broke, bankrupt, not depressed!!!

[@DelKshares]

I spoke with three senior consultants at three different recruitment agencies in the last few months and they all said we’re in a recession. The job market started slowing in Q4 2022 and has worsened considerably since Q3 2023. That’s a UK-based experience but the slowdown is global.

[@PianoMatronNeeNee]

Small business is exactly what corporate America wants to fail . This way they have complete control.

[@logantcooper6]

​@@geocam2 never heard of economies of scale?

[@christinasmith9154]

People are working two jobs because they can't get a full time employment..... In order to get 40 hours a week you need to get two jobs - 20 hours each -to actually make the income of one full time job ....Its not a choice .... It's the only option you have when companies are not offering full time employment

[@shadowbanded]

If you would just turn the TV on you would find out that we have the best economy ever

[@richardhobbs7107]

YES ! ! Just turn on our 'News' . . . . errrr . . . . 'Deception Media' !

[@Bdjjddjdjdj]

Guest says there is a disconnect between the data and reality and I agree. Yet he keeps quoting the data. People please.

[@adamc2320]

And he's long the market lol

[@crooklyncat3223]

EXACTLY. He's a toolbag.

[@adilnajmuddin]

​@@adamc2320he's not long, he's playing equities trend, which is up. Likely until October/November

[@annetteringo6544]

Where is inflation going down...I'm waiting. 😮

[@crooklyncat3223]

His numbers told him so

[@AndrewMWQuin]

The US is a grasshopper looking for a Mack Truck.

[@johnsordillo6338]

I'd argue, equity is not rising. That it's a very consolidated bubble. The lack of expansion is what worries me about equities

[@tmo8385]

I own a nail salon and YES we are not making enough to pay rent these days, fortunately we have cash reserve to maintain our business for now. Many of our regular customers only come in every few months now - instead of every 2 to 3 weeks. Another thing I see is that nearly all customers are now using credit card instead of cash. If things don't improve soon I will have to sell my business... Good luck to all small business owners out there that are struggling....

[@TheDavidLinReport]

Best of luck to you

[@jonvonderhaar7060]

Small business owners are not employees so they cannot file for unemployment if the business goes under.

[@scrambledganglia6946]

Inflation can go to 2% but it is over the dead bodies of the middle and lower classes. The economic life is bleeding out for everyone except financiers and government. This does not end well.

[@CygnusX1123]

Not sure why you guys didn't mention the yen losing value correlating with the bond market selloff. We know that the Japanese are selling treasuries to buy the yen. The senior citizen debate argument sounds like a cover for that honestly.

[@HH-bc2bv]

Every day two great interviews! Wow! 👍👍👍

[@louistan7560]

Small and medium enterprises(SME) employ more people than large corporations of white collars. The "higher for longer " interest rates are killing them, adding to unemployment numbers. The greater issue is that the employees are highly income -vulnerable.

[@michaelwillis5040]

Add to that the number of full-time workers who have had their hours cut to the bare minimum. Remember too how companies, particularly the restaurant industry, shed full time workers for part-time help to avoid paying healthcare. This is not what a healthy, growing economy looks like.

[@AndrewMWQuin]

Good interview

[@4hartrich]

We are in a recession: remove government spending gdp is severely negative

[@kiyoshitakeda452]

Every month official data is revised down. People can tell from from daily experiences what is happening. "Experts" are in their own world only listening to one another.

[@hurcell1]

Yeah, I spect the market is artificially pumped up. Huge credit card debt and folk living check to check and barely making it. Food costs (and etc.) at outrageous levels. This frothy market doesn't make any sense.

[@faithsrvtrip8768]

The market has split. Wealthy people doing well everyone else suffers. It's harsh. I'm out here in an RV and it's brutal. I'm not poor but too many people are and barely hanging on. I'm blessed.

[@prolific1518]

​@@faithsrvtrip8768 it's simply the Treasury. 401ks are getting emptied. This media narrative of a split economy is peak gaslighting. Congrats you bought it.

[@prolific1518]

I'm with you on that speculation. I believe the US Treasury keeps the market stimulated when any signs of negative pressure appears on the stock market.

[@richardhobbs7107]

@@prolific1518 - @14:00 into the interview I enjoy how the guest is trying to avoid at all cost saying, 'They are lying!' concerning the official employment 'statistics' we are being given. Our 'News Media' is adjusting statistics to support the agenda of the current administration in order to continue the mutually agreeable financial support they both receive. 'News' = 'Deception'.

[@hood6854]

Lots of debt in a debt based economy makes things frothy. What doesn’t make sense?

[@superadvisorsorokin]

90% pointing to huge correction now and fund "smart" managers telling we are positive on stocks ??? who will buy your AI ??? if whole World economy struggle. I think silly fund managers will be replace with silly AI -)

[@SaveManWoman]

All market tops are made at new highs. Here comes to crash of the century. 35-85% job losses guaranteed with AGI, I work on this stuff. Cash will be king. The deflation of the century about to hit in all things starting with real estate.

[@godsservant2835]

Phenomenal interview

[@timothylarson4587]

I love it,, wait till we are in the middle of a resession to admit we are in one.

[@user-pj6lu9lh1y]

What happens to the landlords when their tenants can't pay rent? Will the landlords go bankrupted not able to pay their bank loans? So both tenants and landlords simultaneously go bankrupted?

[@sokratzmmf]

The rent is too dang high!

[@prolific1518]

Hooters is closing up shop soon. Guys can't even afford wings and sights smh

[@Thomas-to5dr]

boob implant depression

[@mechannel7046]

4:25 mkt volatility btw July and Nov during election year

[@eurekalogic]

If your currency inflates by 30% the value of everything is now 30% higher or you lost money.

[@easternhair]

Hi David, can u please ask your Guests why some businesses do really Great, large caps or even mega caps, but their Stock performance been dead for a long or so. examples: nike, abbot, cisco, etc, is it worth investing in this super huge companies with dead stock performances (

[@adilhakam887]

The small businesses are 80 % liquor stores gun stores mechanics and strip clubs and restaurants 😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😢😢😢

[@iancormie9916]

And book stores, and stationary suppliers and air-conditioning techs. When the trades don't work, the whole economy gets stuffed including that realestate moguls who are stuck with properties that are either empty or behind of their rent and yet, these properties still have to be maintained and taxes still have to be paid.

[@MenniMennola]

Fine guest! Heading for a hard landing..

[@janetmalcolm3403]

😢😢😢 The downfall of Wall Street.

[@nickw3867]

How you gonna be bullish S&P, and also bullish DXY to 110 😂

[@jessebfly]

We’re the cleanest dirty shirt. But we can’t cut rates because we’ve printed so much money

[@issenvan1050]

David, how should your BTC perform during a recession?

[@tonyh1345]

It’s a risk asset that people will liquidate to pay debts. It will go down just like stocks and real estate will in a recession.

[@issenvan1050]

@@tonyh1345 So RE is a risk asset?

[@tonyh1345]

@@issenvan1050 absolutely

[@trevordowney6425]

Assets have NOT gone up in value David. Assets are assets. The dollar has depreciated.

[@saulm2007]

We are screwed

[@mjbucar]

An excellent insightful guest speaker - thank you.

[@jackwalsh1468]

David, "UPS to Close at Least 200 U.S. Locations in Automation Push" The parcel delivery giant's $9 billion "Network of the Future" initiative will involves 63 sortation sites with major automation projects. Source cited, MDM Distribution Intelligence.

[@drinno8900]

Software rent is a killer

[@reincarnated96]

Target has problems with their sales that are not economy related.

[@user-ek5yn4zr8g]

Great Econ stat noted by by Adam re the US 36 ma Unemployment rate being crossed!

[@MicMacMec861]

"43% Of Businesses Can’t Pay Rent" - would love to get the source of that!

[@sunpark9195]

I WOULDNT BE ABLE TO. luckily i paid off the property in time

[@droubal]

"May added 277k jobs." When will you stop trusting the Establishment survey? It is revised every time, multiple times.

[@phil488pista9]

That's insane 😮

[@J.Smith-rc6wh]

good luck trying to sell your portfolio once it starts . . . riding the last of this up could cost you everything

[@lawrencesmith9059]

The big question is whether there will be sufficient demand for Treasuries as the issuance increases.

[@user-ow3ni2zd2x]

The biggest employer is the Federal Government,we are in a deppression

[@capmarketer5038]

I assume that 43% figure does not include CMBS loans? Each borrower is technically a business, but they collect rent, not pay rent...

[@tinavifquain6958]

' ! 💪 ! ' WE ' Re-Public Cans Stand Strong with Rights & Responsibility for Self & Others ' ! ' ! ❤️ ! " Responsibility Matters for ALL Lives " ! USA ! '

[@alphaomega1351]

No worries 👍. The government will turn on the printing press. 😳

[@userjoe4321]

Print baby print

[@TurielD]

What happens when the Fed raises rates? 1: loans become harder to service 2: money flows to bond holders, who re-invest that into the best returns: real estate. This raises rents Can anyone guess why every. Single. Time. The fed raises rates we go into resession 6-24 months later??

[@alardroitirand6252]

Thanks Adam for your analysis of the markets. Some acoustic tiles on your bathroom wall will do wonders for your audio 😁

[@billthelion6102]

What data, the revised data of revised data of quantum revised data to the lower side? . The whole stats coming out either show the actual trouble or either are that mixed that provide confusion. Banks will go bust with only including the commercial real estate fiasco and the vacancy rates.

[@richardeastman9846]

The Fed perpetrated this crime behind the deceit of misnaming "inflation" the rising prices brought on by, first supply shocks (sanctions, lockdown, net-zero deindustrialization) and then by deposit deflation in the domestic real economy from higher borrowing costs, reduced borrowing and increased debt-payment burden on all variable interest rate loans outstanding. Yes, less buying, sales, revenue forces firms to raise price of units sold even as fewer units are selling in order to maintain locked-in fixed cost payments (e.g., rent) and rising input prices. POWELL HAS BEEN POURING GASOLINE ON HOUSEHOLDS AND SMALL BUSINESSES WITH THE LIE THAT EVERY ELITE BANKER KNOWS IS A LIE, THE HIGH INTEREST "FIGHTS RISING PRICES." Thank you for pointing out that the crime is continuing.

[@iancormie9916]

The problem started years ago by artificially low interest rates. - all this did was cause massive imbalances in the economy. Interest rates should never be lower that the real consumer inflation rate. The chickens are now coming home to roost.

[@richardeastman9846]

@@iancormie9916 before the Fed. Res. Act the US has no interest. The rate was set between borrower and lender and you could shop around on both sides of the transaction. The Fed is a monopoly price setting scheme and the reserve requirement is a cartel profit distribution scheme.

[@DONKALLSONG]

If they dont start cuting by September im getting nervous for the economy.. clearly getting weak right now imo..

[@altondrew]

One of your clearest, most straightforward and insightful guests.

[@kandasamys7981]

Yes My Family 25 Years Rented House

[@christopherleone2996]

Said every analyst in 1999, 2007.

[@boknows3841]

Businesses are ran at their break even point . If you cannot pay your bills you are taking too much out of the profit. You need to quit robbing the till and take a cut in pay and lay people off.

[@yieldmaxetfreview]

BTC is now 57k

[@Joe-nj8py]

Smallest amount of retail traders in 8 years. They didn’t get a bonus last year at the banks and they won’t get sh!t this year either. Fed ruined a whole investor class.

[@ActiveTravelWestUSA]

All true but a year behind!

[@user-ow3ni2zd2x]

The wealthy are not spending

[@kennethwylie8377]

9:02 - he's clearly not paying attention to the housing market. The crash has already begun. Airbnb owners are selling because renting is not as profitable as other investments now. Builders are putting record numbers of homes on the market. Folks are selling their 3rd or 4th homes now because taxes and insurances are dramatically increasing. We have a record number of homes for sale, and because the rates are so high and the down-payment has increased, first-time buyers are unable to buy. The housing market is a mess. The next step is foreclosures and bks.

[@rnish2958]

I've been spending money. Retired in 2018, a lifelong saver turning into a spender. However, there are only so many new toys and services (e.g., camera, laptop, landscaping), I will buy.

[@alphaomega1089]

Saving was silly. Investing is smart. You clearly don't need the money. Others would spend it on food. Enjoy your retirement. You earned it. I mean that. Who'll inherit what you leave behind needs to be on your mind. A nice gesture to give them.

[@rnish2958]

@@alphaomega1089 Thank you. My point was there is only so much a narrow, and getting narrower, portion of the population can do to prop up the economy.

[@prolific1518]

@@rnish2958 you'll be back working soon

[@alphaomega1089]

@@rnish2958 Please understand not having a go. I take your thank you seriously. I understand there is so much you can store at home. I got 5 TVs, two game stations, and multiple phones. I try to renew my white and black goods yearly. You prop up the economy by investing and reaping the dividends given from the profits. Who needs you to be charitable? Even then, see it as an investment (you deserve that money back). You need protecting. A wise spender! We can waste it for you. Rather not. Who do you think helps us all? Invest it there!

[@Slim333yBoi]

Store in Bitcoin

[@user-ow3ni2zd2x]

When people text great interview they must be under contract with the plunge protecters who look out for the stock markets

[@christopherf3918]

We need more bailouts.

[@iancormie9916]

One need only look at payrole (tax) submitions to gage where the econmy stands. Jobs are irrelevant since some have 3 part time jobs that cumulatively pay a none living wage.

[@jakec.4356]

‘this the top of the equity market…?

[@anonymous7egend]

This channel seems to bring bearish people. When will any of tneir predictions come to fruition? Been following David Lin since Kitko

[@franklintejeda3472]

This is by design

[@5dc61]

Sure, but what percentage of businesses are considered small businesses?

[@802Leith]

45%

[@jskins31]

@@802Leith That's the percentage of GDP that small businesses create. I believe over 80% of businesses have less than 50 employees.

[@5dc61]

Google says closer to 90%. That is quite alarming!!!!!

[@user-ow3ni2zd2x]

Wow

[@jordandoughty2658]

Here we are in June... 😂

[@vallmak]

hell ya kobeissi is a legend

[@improvisedsurvival5967]

I said everyone was overleveraged for years.

[@charlespatton4470]

Oof. That Bitcoin prediction to end is already off 10% 😅

[@randomness1931]

Way too many commercials🤨

[@jjapan3241]

Use Brave, zero commercials

[@JorgeOrpinel]

If businesses can't pay rent that's only proof of the overpriced real estate, not of a recession.

[@SuperPowderpig]

If they can't pay rent then they can't pay wages without cutting staff hence climbing unemployment rates and a oncoming recession.

[@mgiannuzzi]

Constructive Notice To The World AI

[@Jesusistheonlywaay]

Stop this just didnt start!!!! Its been like this for the last 3 yrs!!!!

[@chriswhittall5565]

Aren’t many of the small business closures being offset (in the economy) with new online businesses?

[@michaelfewster4604]

I don’t care what the data says we’ve been in a recession for over 2yrs for normal people.