5 Reasons Why Alibaba Stock Can Go To ~$1,000/Share | Evidence Based

5 Reasons why Alibaba Stock Can Go To ~$1,000/Share | Evidence Based
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[@paulrmenezes]

RIP BABA at $58. Wish I had the cash at the time to double down...

[@MooreMoney]

Yea I think those days are over. :(

[@patrickpettibone9749]

I got leaps at 63 it was great.

[@aravindhanarvi1]

2 months before I bought Alibaba at $77 after watching your video. Subscribed to your channel on that day itself. "Subscribed to your channel" is the best investment done by me in the share market. 😊

[@MooreMoney]

You're so kind, thank you!

[@jeremynewell9903]

After entering at $144 I was lucky to double down last March at $78 and tripled down at the end of Oct for $59. I'm super happy to have nearly picked the bottoms ( days where there was panic in the media ). I will be holding this one for decades unless: 1) the business gets impaired / can no longer grow 2) the share price passes double my fair value at a given time, at which time I may sell half 3) I find a more compelling situation that I need the money for. I originally valued BABA on China commerce only so everything else is potential upside. ...but anything could happen in the future. Good call on those other names that you may want to buy above 50% of IV to hold for the long term.

[@MooreMoney]

Congrats Jeremy, strong conviction won out at the end!

[@rufgux]

You are the Neil Armstrong of financial YT’ers. Keep up the great content

[@MooreMoney]

Wow what a comparison! I don't think I'll ever be as great as that man, but I do what I love and hope to live as long as possible so that I can keep doing this! :)

[@valueinvestingmindset8127]

For me, sitting at 314 shares. I’ll sell 1/3rd at $160 to take chips off the table. 1/3rd at $220 and 1/3rd after it hits $300. Exit at the the low, medium, and high range of my valuation. Total cost basis $120 per share total profit around $32k. Might keep a token 14 shares just to hold onto Incase if it hits 1,000 per share in like 10 years from now.

[@MooreMoney]

That's a great strategy, a true Value Investing Mindset! Just essentially playing with the house's money after you sell 2/3rds.

[@justinbeghly1435]

I have to push back on two points. I live in Vietnam, so I have some insight. 1. Lazada is getting their buts kicked in Vietnam by Shopee, Lazada is a pretty bad user experience. 2. The group buying was perfect under lockdowns, in fact it was the only way to get groceries for awhile. After lockdowns group buying slowed to almost nothing. I think both PDD and Cai Cai growth will be significantly slowed in 2023.

[@MooreMoney]

Oh very interesting! Thank you so much for sharing!

[@rudrasa]

Valuable information. This kind of sharing helps.

[@Chuuckification]

Thanks Tay, I love your videos. You have the best research on KZbin hands down 👍

[@MooreMoney]

Wow, thank you! That was very kind!

[@jimd8752]

Just came across this video. Would make for an excellent follow up video to see if your opinion has changed on whether or not this can still actually happen and when.

[@tomdallas3690]

ld own five companies and disappear into the woods for twenty years (without checking the price) I would own Berkshire Hathaway, Google, Apple, Alibaba, and Exxon. That is the cinch portfolio....no matter what happens in the world, you know you will be in good shape.

[@MooreMoney]

Really I should just take a portfolio of $100K and place it equally into those names and see what happens in 20 years.

[@innocentiuslacrim2290]

My list is pretty similar: Alibaba, Microsoft, Alphabet, Berkshire Hathaway, Investor Ab

[@TimothyTeo]

My friends in china have remarked that people there aren’t willing to spend anymore as they are fearful that they will lose their job/already lost their job

[@MooreMoney]

oh interesting, I think a bit of that is starting to happen here too, this will be bad for their pop growth.

[@Finn-Duggan]

Thank you this was super helpful! A spawner business that has a long runway for growth can continue to compound for a long time. All those potential catalysts that we can't reasonably justify in the valuation, like Ant Group, would be icing on the cake. Alibaba is a quality business that I want to own. Not a cigarette butt business I want to get the last few puffs out of. Cheers!

[@MooreMoney]

Exactly! Thank you for watching and commenting :)

[@steverimnac526]

Great review. This is the most in depth review I have seen on Alibaba.

[@MooreMoney]

Thank you so much!

[@tomdallas3690]

I felt that when Goldman worked the transaction with Son, who was a 25 plus percent shareholder of Alibaba, and basically relieved him of 10 percent of shares in the 90's, that it was going to lead to a likely scenario where Goldman participates in the BABA pump somewhat soon thereafter. Son was a forced seller there and was scrambling for cash. Goldman set up a transaction to cash Son out of a large amount of shares at under 100. The priced dipped further shortly thereafter, but the media manipulation has been obvious on the bashing down to 58 dollars. The tide has turned and the ride up could essentially be nonstop for a few years. Nothing goes up every single day, but Alibaba is way better off now than they were in June of 2022, when the price hit 125. Almost certain to hit 150 this year, and that is conservative.

[@MooreMoney]

$150 would be phenomenal!

[@innocentiuslacrim2290]

None can know that "hit xx this year".

[@HassanPoyo]

Put your face on the thumbnail I didn’t realise this was your video. I’m waiting for BABA to hit my current fair price of $240-260 before I evaluate if I sell my position or hold it for longer. Good to see some momentum on China.

[@MooreMoney]

Sometimes I do

[@weiyongl]

bag holders unite! go baba

[@MooreMoney]

Lfg! Haha

[@AsifAli-tl6fu]

Daraz is so big in Pakistan I went there in Pakistan and most of the people told me they love daraz

[@MooreMoney]

Oh interesting, that's a huge win! I thought they were dominant there, thank you for sharing!

[@mikem7976]

Moore upside to come. Meow!

[@MooreMoney]

Haha Moore Meows to you my friend!

[@Alwinlcw]

Tay, what do you think about Alibaba Moat ? I remember the management mentioned that there are 98% high value recurring customers who spend more than 10000 RMB. But I think customer can easily switch from one platform to another platform.

[@MooreMoney]

Even though one customer can easily switch, it seems like the moat is that most remain. I can easily shop at Target, but that doesn't mean that Wal-Mart doesn't have a MOAT.

[@leoweissman3324]

Thanks a lot! I have a question not related to BABA. A year ago or so you featured Dream Finders Homes. It is down quite a bit since. Are you thesis on DFH stick intact? Thanks.

[@MooreMoney]

Yes I am, I've discussed it a few times since, I had a large CSP expire OTM and I'm looking to do something with it again this year.

[@r1pcurl24]

I'm afraid I will not be able to hold when I see $200 after years of suffer :P

[@MooreMoney]

fair enough, it's always a personal decision and there are no right or wrong decisions on when to sell.

[@menash07]

Great video! Did I inspire you to creat it? Lol

[@MooreMoney]

You know it!

[@financialwisdom432]

Also look at increase value of yuan compare to dollar, too

[@MooreMoney]

Oh good point!

[@financialwisdom432]

@@MooreMoney I would love to come to your show and talk about china. I have lived in china for 13 years and owns a property there :) Of course some Alibaba shares

[@jsfaulkner]

Don't get me wrong, I'm long BABA. However, isn't $1000 too optimistic? Especially considering there are 2,645,500,000 shares outstanding. That'd make it more valuable than Apple by 500B.

[@MooreMoney]

Watch the video my friend, I give 6 examples of how they could expand the value in the future, but I also say that I think it's worth about $230 today

[@financialwisdom432]

I see baba like BRK

[@MooreMoney]

Very much so, less that SBC %

[@simarpreetsingh3533]

What you think about ABCL

[@MooreMoney]

Never heard of it, what do you like about it?

[@emanuelmoren]

When you are talking about the 7,5% where is the “base” for that growth figure? Is it the trailing 12 months hugely effected by Chinese covid regulations? Or does stretch further back in time?

[@MooreMoney]

The GDP expectation is 5 to 6%, I added 1.5% to that dor BABA.

[@emanuelmoren]

@@MooreMoney Meow 😊

[@MooreMoney]

@Emanuel Morén Huge Meow my friend!!

[@emanuelmoren]

@@MooreMoney the reason for my comment (the first) was baba's revenue has flattened at least in comparison with the years up until the Covid issues. Wouldn't that in itself somehow mean that we could expect a greater bounce in more present times?

[@richardandgloriasullivan7840]

Charlie Munger likes it!

[@MooreMoney]

He sees this, big macro play on his part

[@mustafaal-humairi6477]

Sure thing it could go to $1000 like Tesla did. But most people will keep holding Until who knows what will happen next

[@mustafaal-humairi6477]

@@toromontana8290 yes I agree. The only part I disagree is the valuation yes Tesla used to be over value but after 70% selloff, tesla has much better valuation than baba. If you just look at the PE ratio Bubba has 123 PE versus Tesla has only 37. Tesla is still making over 40% year over year revenue versus Bubba less than 20%. You can also look at the other metrics too

[@leswhynin913]

I think Alibaba could go to higher, maybe even above $200 per share. But I have no idea how to wrap my head around CCP risk and VIE risk, so I stay out .

[@MooreMoney]

The CCP risk IS the big outlier

[@Isendir1234]

aaaand, nobody mentions AI + Cloud eventually running infrastructures and the internet of things. Smart cities on 5/6G etc. Add all of these wonders together and reaching the moon isn't a fantasy.

[@MooreMoney]

Exactly! There is just so much room to blow my model out of the water.

[@EdisonOuyang]

baba to the moon

[@MooreMoney]

Let's go!

[@coachmikaellaakso]

Where do you find all these information from Baba and other stocks...

[@MooreMoney]

All publically available documentation and articles.

[@coachmikaellaakso]

@@MooreMoney so, no easy way out 😅

[@coachmikaellaakso]

@@MooreMoney anyways. You are only stock KZbinr I watch besides Swedish investor and his recaps of Charlie Munger, and Buffet

[@MooreMoney]

@Valmentaja Mikael Laakso None, but that's what makes investing fun, so few are willing to do the work :)

[@tothemoon4707]

Tay do you believe that this run is the one. Or will it be the same run every few months where it goes to 120 and back to 80's weeks later. Also MEOW

[@HassanPoyo]

I don’t think it will go below $80 or even $100

[@MooreMoney]

It's very hgard to tell, I think there will be be ups and downs over the next year or so.

[@떠돌이약장수]

It's one of my jinx that everytime this guy pop up on youtube, baba go down. Hope this not happen again. - One of korean who put 150,000 usd dollar in BABA

[@MooreMoney]

Jinx again!

[@ric_valhi2887]

Wait...U haven't sold yet?

[@MooreMoney]

Never!

[@ric_valhi2887]

Nah, I’m more than happy with doubling my money and save it for something cheaper. It was a fun ride tho. Respect to the friends that will keep holding for the love of BABA

[@MooreMoney]

@@ric_valhi2887 That's not a bad move either :) Congrats on the win my friend!

[@WinningFinancially]

🚀 🌕

[@MooreMoney]

Moooooonnnn!

[@nimaakhtarkhavari8766]

What are your thoughts about Chat GPT? Many people saying is gonna be the Google killer...

[@innocentiuslacrim2290]

Who are those "many people" that are saying it is "Google killer"? I have not heard of any.

[@MooreMoney]

I have so many thoughts on it, I'll make a video soon.

[@spidercat2841]

Meow

[@MooreMoney]

Huge MEOW!

[@uncertaintyunravelled8273]

I can respect you ideas, but I do find you to be a bit too optimistic. The CCP is too big a threat to me. I can't really feel safe with a soft nationalization being in the background.

[@MooreMoney]

So you'll have a lower valuation than I would, maybe say $100/share?

[@zohcold]

He talks about negatives frequently my friend.

[@MooreMoney]

@@zohcold Very much so! Thank you for noticing, I try and be as unbiased as possible, but I do call out that I am long despite the risks.

[@tomdallas3690]

Walmart goods are 85 percent made in China. Nobody ever suggests that the Chinese government will shut down Walmart. I've never heard it once uttered as a reason to not own Walmart. Odds are close to zero that anything bad happens to Alibaba as far as that tired scare tactic is concerned. I mean, Alibaba is their corwn jewel, and has Munger says, he is glad that China clamped down on Jack Ma and Ant financial, as they were getting into finance in a too risky way.

[@MooreMoney]

@Tom Dallas couldn't have said it better myself!

[@tomdallas3690]

You are very good, but the true legends like Buffett and Munger do not get bogged down in the numbers like you do. I mean, all of the "numbers" guys (like Bill Miller...and total loser and gambler) miss the big picture. You have big picture thinking, but you put way too much emphasis on calculations. For Alibaba, they have over one billion customers in China alone, and can churn profitable dollars from now until essentially the end of time. I mean, they make 70 million in positive cash flow per day, and China has been locked down for three years. Any and all competition that Alibaba had during the last three years had it extremely rough, while Alibaba kept churning dollars. Far fewer competitors could have sprung up.

[@tomdallas3690]

Over time, churning positive dollars on a grand scale will have the share price of Alibaba drift up, as is the natural course due to worldwise inflation, improved business, etc. Google is the same way. Amazon is still too highly priced, but will probably last over one hundred years, just like Alibaba and Google will.

[@MooreMoney]

We all develop our own styles, I really like modelling it out.