5 Receivers With No Hope In 2024

[@Flockfantasy]

Join our next draft here : (code FLOCK for 50% match up to $250, & my rankings + draft guide) play.underdogfantasy.com/p-fantasy-flock-network

[@jeepguy406]

I’d be interested to know how many of these bottom 5 offenses over 10 years were projected to be bottom 5 before the season started. Very interesting video!

[@ryanebel]

This is also taking into account that the win totals are perfect. WRs on projected bottom 5 teams per vegas sportsbooks last year. Puka Nacua Nico Collins Tank Dell Michael Pittman Mike Evans Not taking someone with some upside in the 14th round because vegas has there team bad is pretty dumb. If you can garuntee the team being bad sure but thats simply not the case. This is a solid strategy in the first two rounds to not tank your season but these examples you give are historically bad advice.

[@Zee3po]

This for bottom 5 offenses, NOT win totals. Huge difference.

[@lancerendar]

More Malik Nabers for me

[@xJmanbx]

Love the vids but issue with the analysis here - these are “projections” vs rankings. Last year, the colts, cardinals, bucs, Texans, rams, titans were “projected” to be bottom 10 offenses. None of these teams offenses finished near their projection (baring titans). You would’ve missed on a ton of talent by assuming these teams would be bottom offenses at the start of 2023.

[@Healingwatersonyoutube]

Not willing to bet on Daniel Jones

[@johnconner6846]

The bucs were the 10th worst offense in terms of total yards, and as he says in the video and anytime he’s talking about a player on a bad offense…”if you think x team has a chance to be a middle of the road offense then definitely take player y” while ur right that 3-4 teams that were supposed to be bad were average or better those players associated with those teams way overproduced their adp which is what ur looking for every year

[@gaimyt]

Well majority of the time projections are going to be accurate obv there’s going to be outliers every year. Statistically it would make more sense to bet on the top projections compared to hope.

[@blainelacquement8808]

Yeah people take projections way too serious

[@Flockfantasy]

Agree with the sentiment behind this comment, would like to know where you found these being the bottom 5 offenses in projections last year. (This is why I said if you were to be drafting Nabers you are betting on the giants to exceed expectations)

[@dereknh1655]

My guy just glossed over Jarvis Landry #10 finish in 2017 lmao not even a mention

[@Flockfantasy]

Counted in the final summary chart at the end. He's 1 of the 2 guys who finished top 12

[@dannycragel9686]

I'm sure you're flawless on your popular channel...smart asses out here man I swear

[@broadnerdmike6450]

@@dannycragel9686dude are you Flock’s dad or something? I’ve read like 20 comments total and two of them are you blowing him.

[@arodalan3961]

@@broadnerdmike6450🤣😂😂

[@kidmelo1994]

im drafting alot of naber and legette in my keeper league. I trust Nabers Yac and play making abilities more in redraft not gonna lie

[@Dewyyyyyy]

So this is just a best ball underdog channel now. Got it.

[@griffing5794]

I would have appreciated if you showed how predictable it is to be a bottom 5 offense. If 1/5 of the projected bottom 5 offenses actually are bottom 5 offenses, how nullified is the data?

[@PDM282]

This is an excellent point

[@dannycragel9686]

How predictable? We'll go to Vegas and look athr casinos and ask yourself if the casinos are good at making money? I'd say predictable enough to not post this comment. Or appreciate yourself and do the research

[@Ooochocinco]

If you extended this to bottom 10-15 offenses I think I’d have much more confidence in it. My gut says not much would change. It’s still hard to produce in a bad offense. But like you said it’s hard to predict exactly who the bottom 5 offenses are.

[@magnificentmurker]

The wait is almost over boys🎉

[@FPFOdylanrice]

So close!

[@Flockfantasy]

Can't believe how close we are

[@davuhn2]

Just go back to his draft streams from a year ago and you’ll see how accurate this guy is with his projections

[@whatdadogdoin8457]

Damn you comment on every one of his vids hating dude 😂😂 you ain’t that important bud try to feel love or self esteem maybe

[@davuhn2]

@@whatdadogdoin8457 nice. I have fans.

[@thegoldenratio1618]

Mason, I love this data comparing how low end offenses affect fantasy production. One thing that I think is important is knowing the regular rate of a teams WR1 hitting top 32, 24 ,12 and 9 so that we can compare how much worse the bottom 5 is than average WR1 performance. Because obviously people to an extent are already fading WR on a bad offense but if we can compare to the average it might tell us better if we should be fading them even hard than the market already is (which I suspect given this data is the case or if people are already properly fading expected bad offenses). For example, if these WRs are already being ranked in the 40s the downside is somewhat baked in. Another thing I do like is the discussion of what players are much worse in a classic 'friend league' like you said, 10 team, 2 rb 2 wr 1 flex where you really need those home run players to stand out where as even if you draft a wr as the wr 38 and they finish as wr 24 it's still not really helping your team win in that kind of format

[@derekxavier220]

Blazer is nice, but it looks like he rolled right out of bed lol I love the dedication

[@dexicocity4427]

Blazers and cowlicks are mason's signature style

[@benwojtczak4888]

@@dexicocity4427 Differentiating in the market lol

[@i2Shea]

Mason is clueless, haha agreed love it!

[@juanluismoscoso59]

Daniel jones has never had a WR1 , I’m taking Malik nabers all day long in the fifth round , no target competition, OL got better , Daniel jones should really improve this year. ( People forget that he was really solid in 2022)

[@broadnerdmike6450]

He hasn’t had help and he stinks. Both are true.

[@qazzaqstan]

Nabers in round 5 I could get behind, 2/3 turn is a bit more brutal. Weirdly I'm completely out on Nabers this year but I love Jones (in Bestball or SF where being the QB 20ish actually matters).

[@realgooddoty9395]

Don’t be surprised if he played better when Lock Starts

[@burneraccount7510]

Oh he got competition alright.. Hyatt, Hodges, in a run first offense. Nabers will need to create big plays on his opportunities but Daniel jones ain’t throwing 25+tds most likely

[@UserName-ts3sp]

@@burneraccount7510that’s not competition for a guy like nabers. those are side pieces

[@asmith7274]

Why is the titans offense projected to be so bad? Seems they have some good pieces in place. Is it the line or Levis?

[@madguitarist63]

@@asmith7274 I believe it's based on last year and the fact there's uncertainty what Brian Callahan will do. Personally, don't understand it. Last season OL was the issue. This off-season they drafted OL in the first and added a top 10 interior lineman from 2023 in FA. They added two NFL WRs with Ridley and Boyd (who is familiar with Callahan offense already) now next to Hopkins. Brian Callahan being a rookie coach and bringing a new offense may be why people hesitate, but the off-season they e had is a recipe for a surprise season

[@whatdadogdoin8457]

It’s 100% Vrabels departure

[@livelikelarry0017]

Will Levis is an absolute trap do not believe the hype

[@jocko9955]

Stole Nabers in the 5th round of my 12 team redraft league. Praying for his success 🤲

[@craigmoschkau5]

Nabers would be a no go in round 7. Where he is going right now is insane!

[@broadnerdmike6450]

A no go in Round 7? I dunno. Round 5 you definitely have to start considering him.

[@UserName-ts3sp]

i love the talent and situation… i think he’ll be a lot like odell

[@craigmoschkau5]

@@UserName-ts3sp odell had eli manning. different situation entirely.

[@FantasySportsZen]

No it's not. Haha. MHJ is going like top 15. Nabers is much better than people seem to realize. 7th round? All day, easy.

[@mattmueller8609]

One of my general strategies is to avoid risk and uncertainty and that’s why I almost always stay away from high priced rookies

[@Bostonnick34]

There are definitely some offenses in the bottom half that I can see falling downwards towards the bottom 5. Looking at you: LV, PIT, NO, MIN, LAC

[@golkeganac4339]

Mason just glossing over how difficult it is to predict the worst 5 offenses in the NFL. This is equivalent to saying "If you can see the future and know the top 5 offenses for 2024 then just draft players on those teams" Yeah, no sh#t

[@mattmueller8609]

I don’t play much best ball and agree neighbors is too high but if you stack him and Wandale I bet that would produce spike weeks

[@tomaszkaszuba4328]

Do you think that you could use this data and this trend to identify trades that can be done at different players' ceilings/floors? I picture this, identify: (A) players that will boom, inflating their trade value (B) players that will bust in some given period of time, deflating their trade value, but then boom later Then, trade player A for player B plus another player X and reap the excess value Just quickly looking over the data, I think one way of identifying this kind of situation would be looking for stretches where the team's ITT is less than their average ITT for multiple weeks. So the Falcons in Weeks 1-3 for example, and the Bills in Weeks 3-5. On the opposite end, the Lions are projected to have great weeks 1-4, with ITT > avg ITT, but then a relative rough patch. Edit: I guess what I'm asking is what is the correlation between the PPG and ITT in a given week.

[@PhilD211]

😅Should have looked at it like, which WR in a bottom 5 offense THE YEAR BEFORE could be a value due to off-season changes? And see if there is data for any bottom 5 receivers that massively exceeded ADP, cuz that is what is interesting. Picking busts is easy, but finding true overachiever wins you leagues

[@scattau41]

Having the WR1 QB1 or RB1 wins leagues. Getting great value on an overachiever helps make the playoffs.

[@matthasahand5495]

If you're ever starved for content, can you do a video on the success of guys in generally bad offenses? Like maybe offenses ranked 18-27? Or just offenses that were ranked below average (17+)? Curious how it compares to these results, and how much it really matters if an offense managed to improve slightly after last years bad offensive season. I feel like even if one of these teams gets out of the top 5, it's still not going to be a favorable situation for these guys

[@alfredo8413]

I think the Titans and Patriots are going to exceed expectation this year, so I feel comfortable drafting some Hopkins, Polk, Douglas, Levis, Okonkwo, and Maye. Outside of them I don’t think anyone else has good value or much potential.

[@realgooddoty9395]

Thing about Nabors is my guy he’s gonna get a lot of volume. Don’t be surprised if he does better than people think.

[@Thoughtpologetics]

In redrafts Sutton is going 8-9th… I just missed on him, he would be a great flex, but underdog has 3WRs if I’m not mistaken so WRs are gonna go a lot sooner

[@nickfrimpong]

Shouldn’t you consider the ADP at which the wide receivers were drafted when evaluating if they provided good value?

[@waltergregg3706]

I could tell when Mason started playing fantasy football when he talks about NFL players or stats before 2015-2016. "Somehow Mike Evans had a top 10 finish his rookie year". The somehow was Jameis Winston throwing 50 yards bombs, not only to his team, but others as well.

[@Flockfantasy]

2014 was Josh McCown. Seems like you were the guy starting in 2016 ;)

[@philippkl3179]

Damn bro you got cooked😭😭

[@waltergregg3706]

To be fair I was still right. And wrong.

[@als3210]

Deandre Hopkins dominating on the Houston Texans yessss

[@kurush61]

Mason is it possible to see how accurate Vegas / experts have historically been in predicting top-5 and bottom 5 offenses?

[@user-yg8po5jr3g]

Half PPR 1 Keeper... Should I keep CeeDee Lamb or Bijan Robinson? I know CeeDee is the pick 9 out of 10 times, but the contract holdout scares me a bit, also with him being a bit notorious for starting slow

[@visionsdb6695]

My only knock on this is that if Giants aren’t a bottom 5 offence then Nabers isn’t part of this group

[@sugaashow]

Giants are top 10 this year.

[@mister_padilla6105]

0:41 it’s almost like I’ve been saying this for years Mason! Lol

[@blessedbyant]

I like George Pickens a lot this year

[@zzkaliazz]

So basically if a projected bad offense has a player that falls in adp a couple spots not a bad pick being they are already on a discount built into their adp, however going bully rb and te at the top and trying to fill my roster with these guys is not a good idea.

[@dustinschimmel9152]

Do propects like nabers ever make qbs like danny dimes look respectable instead of dumpster fores? Thus out performing offensive projections? What are your top 5 teams likely to out perform protections?

[@matbettez3495]

Thanks for reminding me the Rams used a 1st rd pick on Tabon Austin

[@TheInnerCastle]

Love the videos boss, thanks for all the hard work

[@whatdadogdoin8457]

FLOCK UP!! Yo Can you make a video for Super flex leagues my brotha?? Obviously the heavy influence of QBs cuz u can start 2. Would love to see how u draft it

[@jcass1970]

When it comes down to it, it's all a guess and some luck. Of course, we try to narrow down that guess (why we're here), but you never know. Just look at the projections last year. At the beginning of the 2023 season, the Texans' offense was ranked dead last by all the experts, and they ended up going to the playoffs with Nico and Tank heading way up the draft board. The 2nd worst offense was Tampa Bay. They ended up in the playoffs as well, and we all know how Mike Evans did.

[@chrispedersen7893]

How does this stack up in Full PPR? Does volume overcome this deficit?

[@stephenbates2058]

How do predict who is going to be bottom 5 offense since you do not know before you draft? If you go off projection (like you have to) the data says differently. Like the Rams were suppose to be a bottom 5 offense last year, but they had more than 1 player in a top finish for example. I don’t see how this data being presented tells you anything right now while you are trying to draft.

[@Zee3po]

This is pretty eye opening, thanks for the info.

[@broadnerdmike6450]

What draft has Kyren Williams going near Nabers?

[@lazy2708]

Mason @flock PLEASE (lmk if it’s in the video I haven’t finished) PLEASE compare the projections from last year to the actual rankings last year just want to know

[@anthonyn2730]

There was an error on 2016. Landry was 10th but you said highest was 21

[@Flockfantasy]

I misspoke in the video. The stats at the end were correct (Jarvis was included)

[@CNDbrandy]

2017 Jarvis Landry was listed at 10 😅 so best WR wasnt at 21

[@CNDbrandy]

But otherwise great video. Thanks for your daily analysis ❤

[@Flockfantasy]

Yup misspoke for that section, but the overall recap Jarvis was counted as WR 10

[@CNDbrandy]

​@@Flockfantasyallright, yeah i heard that. Was a bit too fast with commenting 😂 i'm sorry. But i really liked the video and wish you all the best. Greetings from Switzerland

[@combatcentral7386]

I'm smashing all the overs and the draft button on Pop Douglas. One of the most, if not the most underrated receiver in the league. Plus, I think Drake Maye is really good at football.

[@livelikelarry0017]

I prefer Ja’lynn Polk personally I think hes the better talent

[@combatcentral7386]

@@livelikelarry0017 I like Polk too. High floor player. I just like Pop as a pure, consistent separator. A rookies best friend. Plus he's got some YAC to him.

[@FantasySportsZen]

Drake Maye won't be playing this year imo. Pats will also be a bottom 5 offense. GL.

[@combatcentral7386]

@@FantasySportsZen If Maye doesn't play that would be a travesty. Maybe the first couple weeks? But Maye is the best QB in that room and should easily be the starter if the Pats get past the stigma imo. Once Maye starts, I think there's a boost to the offense and definitely a boost to Pop that the market is sleeping on.

[@MichaelHawkins-yd6ge]

I've been taking Polk alot I have no shares of pop Douglas need to take some I think

[@dannycragel9686]

You the man Mason, thanks for all the content!

[@BenjaminRuggiero]

I love wise receivers

[@Flockfantasy]

The wisest in the league

[@mattmueller8609]

I don’t get the Dionte love personally. I did in Pittsburgh to a degree but he’s going to a bad offense and has historically struggled in the redzone for tds where old man Thielan has excelled

[@croal9950]

Maybe Nabers won't quite live up to his ADP, but 'no hope' is such a clickbait take. Also, total finish isn't the whole story, rice was WR 27 last year but was a league winner. Rookies have that ascending style so they're popping off when you really need it. What we have here is a truly elite prospect falling into an offense that will be centered around him, with a below average QB. He could be a back-end WR1, a WR3 or something in between, only time will tell how it shakes out. Where he's being drafted, it's just a matter of if you want to swing for the fences with the unknown, or go with something a little more proven

[@DylanWolfram14]

Rashee Rice or Jordan Addison? Full PPR Keeper league

[@GeneralHadj]

Jordan

[@augustuswetzel]

I’ve been avoiding Nabers as much as possible. Him and Achane are the worst picks in 2nd round IMO

[@jakeflynn6987]

A 20% target share is unheard of for rookies?

[@MichaelBronte]

“I’ve drafted a lot of Adam Thielen, and feel disgusted by it” 😂

[@OrionTripp]

Thank you Mason for starting my morning with football

[@qtpqtpqtp]

6am upload is a new one 😂

[@Flockfantasy]

Can't sleep my guy

[@garrettray1668]

@@Flockfantasyrise and grind!

[@chickencheesesteaklover5119]

I proudly have 0% Malik neighbors. As well as 0% Jonathan brooks. Best ball influencers are crazy pumping these guys

[@smittysomething3520]

You should probably re-think the 0% Brooks 😬

[@dai6646]

@@smittysomething3520yeah… Brooks is in a good position to hit at the end of the year

[@rentalturtle1418]

His names Malik nabers lol

[@its570Key]

I think everyone has 0% Malik Neighbors that dude doesn’t exist

[@dai6646]

@@rentalturtle1418 right over your head

[@madguitarist63]

The Titans offense is underrated. I think there's too much emphasis on last season. I like Tennessee to be a good second half of the season offense. DeAndre Hopkins didn't have a bad year last year. His production last year would easily justify his draft capital this year

[@painfx5853]

good luck bubba lol

[@madguitarist63]

@@painfx5853 I'm not saying go hard, just saying don't sleep. They've drafted 2 first round OL, added another top 10 OL from 2023 in free agency, added two actual WRs next to Hopkins in Boyd and Ridley, and they hired an offensive minded coach in Brian Callahan. That's a recipe for a surprise offense

[@joejoshBEATS]

All this info and chatgpt for the win this year

[@penickbell6325]

I have 4% johnson and 4% nabers. I think there is a good chance the titans dont end up being bottom 5 and that Washington doesnt end up being bottom 7 but the rest of those teams i feel like have very little hope for being any good at all

[@killacam_3609]

What about Nabers at the 4/5 turn?

[@jamesdemirakos1055]

You would’ve told me not to draft Nico Collins last year

[@Flockfantasy]

If he was going at the 2/3 turn, yes. If he was in the double digit rounds it wouldn't apply

[@kingrex1931]

Even if malik Nabers hits the underdog pick ems, that would put him at about WR28 last year. That would still make him a bad pick at WR25.

[@dexicocity4427]

I come for the blazer, I stay for the cowlick.

[@codybrush8504]

I have the 1.06 in my redraft mason. Do i go Bijan or Anonra St Brown? Just don’t know how i feel about the WR value round 2. Thanks!

[@Flockfantasy]

Up to you & what you expect your leaguemates to do!

[@codybrush8504]

@@Flockfantasywould you prefer bijan or amonra?

[@SlippyFlicks]

Get amon ra in 1st and rb in rd 2.

[@Zee3po]

Breece

[@SirLance4lot]

If it’s PPR then the Sun God

[@arejcek12]

This analysis should be based on PPG

[@Flockfantasy]

It is

[@pickledill7726]

Wise Recievers 😮

[@Flockfantasy]

The wisest receivers in all the land

[@PiDev]

I play bestball. I don’t care where a receiver finishes over the course of a season. I care about their single game ceilings. That’s it.

[@gammaalphasigma5558]

Can we all ask ourselves a real question? At this point, why is Trevor expected to do any better than Levis? I am being so serious.

[@CombatCashClub.]

Because in a better offense?

[@nayphan5433]

wise 🧙‍♀️

[@Flockfantasy]

👴🏻

[@SlippyFlicks]

Morning flock.

[@CVitrano]

I posted as well that Nabers is an elite level athlete in a horrible position and should not be going at his current ADP on Underdog. I have gotten a couple of comments that stated "I want to be in your leagues, no way I'd lose to you". People are defending his ADP aggressively lol

[@UserName-ts3sp]

as WR20 he’s fine imo. but underdog adp is crazy high for wrs. im sorry but id much rather have a really good rb like jacobs or henry at #27

[@Thoughtpologetics]

Theilan at 33… Going to be 34 next month… IDK man… I’m staying away, that’s a dinosaur in the NFL

[@tkell31]

I miss the days when you could get Rice and Watson 6th/7th any draft you wanted. #1 options for two of the best passing QBs in football was stealing

[@jimothycharles8101]

if you don't know what we're doing here we're drafting on Underdog fantasy I draft here every single day I've drafted here every single day for years they're best ball drafts so there's no commitment at all during the season that's how I draft hundreds of teams every offseason it's how I won $150,000 on underdog two years ago🗣 🗣 🗣 🗣

[@Flockfantasy]

Preach it

[@Dodeeg3000]

You've been doing fantasy analysis for how long and you just realized team success impacts WRs success????

[@user-nl9pr5yx5j]

You half to draft players off good offenses, bad offenses 123 punt

[@po54ful]

What are the chances Addison gets suspended this season?

[@arist365]

I love that vid. I been drafting a lot of Dionte Johnson. But I’m going to pause and go a different route. Thanks bro

[@jordanpotts99]

I think comparing Brian Dabolls philosophy to that of the titans last year is extremely extremely lazy lol. Daboll was comfortable throwing 45-50 times with Daniel jones healthy year 1 and while you might not like it they were effective and that’s with no one even close to nabers level of talent

[@kyleespersen8878]

love you mason but you're wrong alot lol

[@LicensedtoLarry]

nyGiants though

[@Thoughtpologetics]

NABERS AT 19😂😂😂

[@Reggie-hx9ib]

Question, I have first pick in .5 PPR. I’m looking to draft Bijon, Achane and Kyron? Or, would Lamb, Achane and Kyren? Thank you

[@markfulton7837]

neither, cmc

[@forwork2601]

Olave

[@ajanco23]

So Justin Jefferson might be a bust this year?

[@conorpearson2639]

A weakness in this analysis is these top wr in bottom offenses are poor quality and lack elite talent.

[@conorpearson2639]

to clarify, I am speaking in historical data you presented.

[@jefftimmerberg193]

Neighbors?

[@itsherbiehancock7974]

Mason the Ironman!

[@Flockfantasy]

🫡🫡

[@maximilianpointl9423]

Ironmason

[@OF4Feet]

Hate to be the only grown up in the room but Nabers has no upside

[@flip-antonio8425]

Lol

[@Flockfantasy]

Preach

[@brandonasiamah8205]

Casual take

[@Chiny_Ok_]

@@Flockfantasywe gotta teach you this lesson again after puka huh…

[@tkell31]

Still 0% Nabers at his price. Daniel Jones is terrible. What I've learned is most people are hopeless optimists.

[@sugaashow]

Did you watch DJ playoff performance on the road? Dude put up multiple records. First player to throw 300yds + 100yds rushing in a playoff game. Was throwing to practice squad receivers while Kirk was throwing to Jefferson and hock. He will be elite with some talent around him.

[@tkell31]

@@sugaashow Okay. Good luck with hoping one game means he's a good qb.

[@crooklynz718]

If Garrett Wilson was able to put up 1100 yards receiving as a rookie with Zach Wilson as his QB, then Malik Nabers will most definitely put up over 1000 yards receiving with Daniel Jones as his QB.

[@Zee3po]

Did you actually watch the video? Garrett Wilson was WR31 in 2022. Then WR40 last season. That's the point.

[@seanmaffia]

Your implying nabers is a top 12 WR out the gate no doubt which isn’t fair

[@ColeCutsDigital]

Bro the click bait is getting bad... Hate how negative this channel is starting to become.

[@Flockfantasy]

Yeah not nearly enough research went into this. Should have given a "5 running backs you need to draft NOW (LEAGUE WINNERS!!!)

[@dannycragel9686]

@@Flockfantasy 😂👍🏻

[@complexrobb4528]

The Las Vegas shit is so played out when you had teams like Texans, Packers and Rams prove that wrong not to mention the Jags and Bears flopping so hard when your beloved Las Vegas got 7 teams wrong 😂

[@brandonandrean1748]

2022 I think courtland Sutton finished higher then Judy.