97% Of Catan Players Choose Wrong

💡 If you took a second to appreciate the odds of getting resources from settlements, you might completely reconsider how you place. This video is a elaborate intervention to prevent players from betting on the wrong pips.
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[@KenPlaysCatan]

The odds of you subscribing are really good.

[@Sebby_Nineteen]

That pan you are using looks like you are about to melt those dice.

[@KenPlaysCatan]

It's a japanese rice bowl.. I mean.. dice tray

[@krozimotskikamionizure6332]

As a professional poker player and a casual Settlers of Catan player with an ELO of 1300, I can tell you that mathematics doesn't really have much to do with poker; it's an enduring misconception for beginners. Poker is about understanding your opponent's behavior and playing your hand accordingly. If you ever see two cards of the same suit on the flop and two more of the same suit come out, or you're missing one card for a flush, you know you're in a 50/50 situation. Similarly, if you lack one card for a straight, you're aware that you're not in a favorable position and need to play the hand differently. That's simple mathematics. Mathematical insights in poker mainly assist those who analyze statistical data to determine the long-term viability of certain playing styles, and so on..

[@KenPlaysCatan]

Really nice to hear these kinds of insights. Thank you.

[@namv6431]

I am not a pro poker player, but I would consider myself above the average person. Reading others is definitely more important than being good at calculating odds. Especially short term. However, a better player can always lose to someone with better luck. However, long term, playing hands with higher probability of winning, will eventually be favorable. Catan is not a long term game. With my limited experience of catan, understanding the probability of craps is much closer. Seven out, is the robber. You can go on a long roll with never hitting a 7, but eventually, every roll in craps will eventually end because seven will inevitably be rolled. Dice (or roulette) always comes down to sample size.

[@benji-menji]

Even if a 7 has the highest chance to be rolled, the dice don't seem to feel like rolling a 7 as much that day.

[@KenPlaysCatan]

lol, same for the 2 & 3 going against the odds. But if you were betting money, would you bet on 7 or 12?

[@benji-menji]

@@KenPlaysCatan That depends on the winnings multiplier for 7 and 12 and how many rolls I pay in for. If they had the same winnings and I rolled once then automatically 7. Even if a 12 was rolled then RNJesus must hate me that day and would have rolled 7 even if I picked 12.

[@Ox9707]

I'm shocked no one else commented on how 3 is also a cursed number since it never landed on 3 either.

[@osomuerte1]

The roll demo is interesting since it is pretty far from a normal distribution, specifically the low 7s. And 2 had the same probability as 12, but 2 rolled motions times. I haven't seen many people grabbing a 12 as if it will produce. It's better thana desert hex or a coast (not necessarily better than a port) and gets that resource if it's your second settlement, so it's not without value. And no one is going to block a 12. You can't count on a 12 for production, but it sure is fun when it hits a few times.

[@KenPlaysCatan]

Thanks for the comment, and yeah you're right, it isn't a normal distribution. Only 60 something rolls as the sample size. Yeah nobody truly goes for 12, but it's ultimately a reminder that your number choices do matter more than you may give it credit for. (not you specifically, you know what I mean lol)

[@connor9024]

I got into catan about a year ago because it helped me study /review probabilities in my econometrics classes

[@mikilojzik]

My version of Catan hasn't got these dots on the numbers

[@dongameleone2489]

so what did the 97% players of catan chose and why is it wrong?

[@KevinY5]

Wait, shouldn't sheep for blue be 6 instead of 4? 3 total dots x 2 = 6?

[@latvian_fallen_angel]

I yesterday play with my friends and 12 rolled 3 times in the row. In all the game 12 rolled like 6 times but number 5 rolled only 1 time in all the game. :)

[@davidgeorge6253]

why is 2.38% in this video? You later put it correctly as 2.78%.

[@KenPlaysCatan]

prob human error lol

[@kristoferjacobson8195]

1/36 =0.0278. It should be the latter

[@Jo24Park]

I didn't like the video because it only had content I already know. Still happy to have stumbled across it. Really well made content!

[@KenPlaysCatan]

I guess you are the 3% lol. Joking aside though, I still have friends who don't respect the statistical probabilities and then wonder why they keep losing.

[@greendino97]

Really enjoyed this video. Balancing resource production or atleast balancing the odds of them is a nice concept I will try to use in future games. Something else that stood out to me was the defensive usage of the knight card. I tended to play mine as fast as possible to lock down largest army. But that leads to inefficient robber movement and generates more heat, which makes trading more difficult, atleast in my meta. I will be remembering some of these concepts next time catan makes it to the table!

[@KenPlaysCatan]

Solid takeaways! Catan definitely gets more fun the more you understand it how to approach it. Hope you get to check out some of the other Catan videos for more of these kinds of insights!

[@charbelwakim7663]

And also we should take into consideration that after settling we increase our production income by x and if we city we double the production on the spot.

[@KenPlaysCatan]

100%, well I guess 200%

[@happypandaface710]

100% of catan players choose wrong bc they decided to play catan

[@ScorpioIsland]

Like and comment every time forever

[@KenPlaysCatan]

Thanks and appreciation every time forever

[@Gavinwad]

Superb video as always!

[@KenPlaysCatan]

Thank you sir, trying to keep it fresh!

[@BURGERBURG36]

Should have way more subs

[@danielyeetman]

great video

[@bigtuna9279]

With content quality this good I was shocked to see this video had only 10k views (I mean not too shabby, but still). Really helpful tips!