A Century of Migration. Billions on the move, so many will be trapped. Climate Change.

[@CountEverything]

If you've enjoyed any of the videos on the channel and want to support me, then you're welcome to buy me a slice of (virtual) pizza via the buymeacofffe website - www.buymeacoffee.com/counteverything There are no benefits to you, apart from receiving my thanks. I don't need the money, but I do sometimes need the encouragement.

[@Mike80528]

I've really enjoyed your videos. I think you have a great way of presenting information. Here's to you gaining more traction with The Great Algorithm!

[@a.randomjack6661]

We all come from Africa, some place around lake Victoria a mere 70 000 years ago.

[@thunderstorm6630]

sorry but I think you are completly wrong: when people will get flooded, and this will happen more and more frequently nobody will want to help anymore, and not much will be rebuild anymore. Already every country closes their borders and the fascists on the rise will find it normal to let people elsewhere in their misery and this will be the end for most of those climate refugees.

[@thunderstorm6630]

and how about permanently lost stuff in floodings like soil? you cannot put a price tag on that, once soil was swept away into the ocean or saltwater flooded your fields no more food will be produced there.

[@thunderstorm6630]

pls tell the truth: people who cannot move will be most negativly affected? No! They are going to starve or die in another very brutal way because of climate catastrophy caused by the richer nations like us.

[@rapauli]

Yes, great respect for your presentations.

[@CountEverything]

Thank you. It's nice to be appreciated.

[@Time2goExtinct]

Whilst all the climate scientists are still in the bargaining phase, I see people already in acceptance and grief for the state of being. 2025 will be the year all of us become aware of the predicament we are in.

[@davidwatson7604]

This is a comment for the Algo boost!

[@CountEverything]

Thank you.

[@danielvetter8119]

10 good years left, in case we are lucky!

[@thunderstorm6630]

this would be really lucky

[@CountEverything]

Make the most of them.

[@JShrimpma]

@@CountEverything haha I’m trying to ski as much as I can before it’s not possible anymore. I think it’s very selfish but it’s something I love that I don’t think will be possible in the future as prices will surely rise exponentially.

[@richardv.2475]

There is a good "toy model" of how these migrations work, that's the collapse of Syria, aka the 2015 European migrant crisis. The short story is that once Syria was a rich country, but first it ran out of oil, then the climate change / drought decimated its agriculture. The farmers migrated first locally, then to big cities where the government couldn't handle them so it collapsed. Then everyone just started to escape as far as possible. (I'm not sure where I read this and now I won't search for it in my books, either in Lustgarten's On the move or in one of Ugo Bardi's two magnum opuses, this is a relatively old story.) The recurring lesson (what I read over and over in history books) is that people tend to postpone migration as long as possible and when they are finally doing it it naturally causes wide-spreading collapses and disturbances.

[@CountEverything]

It's funny that a climate change has caused a whole country to collapse, the UN documented it but no one seems to have noticed. Or if they have, they don't seem concerned.

[@zerochance8581]

Excellent. I always enjoy your videos. Thoughtful, considerate, science based, humanistic, and compassionate.

[@Mike80528]

Moving is a very difficult decision. I made the decision to move due to coming climate change and expected related economic impacts about 20 years ago. rooted up my family leaving all my family and friends behind. I really didn't expect things to move this fast though, and I was relatively pessimistic.

[@CountEverything]

Well done for having such foresight.

[@Mike80528]

@@CountEverything I think it is important to acknowledge my privilege in having had a remote job way back then that allowed me to move almost anywhere. I may have had foresight, but I was also very fortunate to even have that option. So many simply cannot and in the not too distant future they may not have any options even if they could.

[@GregSteele-os8yp]

May I ask where from and to you moved.Even approximate is grain for the mill.

[@Mike80528]

@@GregSteele-os8yp From California to Colorado front range. It was one of a couple of geographic locations I thought would act as an "island in the storm". Projections seem to bare that out, although aquifers are a concern.

[@johnthomasriley2741]

Averages do not kill people. Big storms do, Heat dooms do. The big waves of movement will be after great storms under the worst conditions possible. 😢

[@graz789]

good video Count, scary refugees of global warming have no claim on asylum.just scary how bad we have made the world and just how much suffering we are about to cause from fossil fuel consumption.

[@LandscaperGarry]

The concept of expontial change will be understood much better real soon is my guesstimate.

[@bobbart4198]

... It will be " understood " when it hits the wealthy west ... California and British Columbia, Canada already know, as does much of Australia & the Greek Ilse ... The rest will catch up, and it wont be long now ! ...

[@Peace2051]

What a fantastic summary and what insightful concepts to use as we watch the Climate Catastrophe (Peter Carter term) unfold. Thanks for all you work.

[@user-ch7yv3qw1p]

Would you rather be in the Climate Catastrophe (Peter Carter) or the Climate Casino (Paul Beckwith). I think Paul sounds more fun. LOL

[@Peace2051]

@@user-ch7yv3qw1p LOL! Yes, a casino sounds like a lot of fun till you remember the house always wins. In this case Nature Bats Last. (By the way, I realize you might be a hack or even a bot since in the six months you have had your current account you have posted and liked nothing; how many accounts do you have?) I would rather know the truth.

[@CountEverything]

Thanks. I found it a bit of a struggle to get motivated to do it, so I'm glad you appreciated it.

[@bill8985]

Thank you for your efforts and the references you shared. Trump thinks he understands migration. He ain't seen nothing, yet.

[@Mike80528]

America will collapse without migration, and will also collapse if migration is not controlled. We must find some way to strike a balance, and that will mean some *very* difficult choices.

[@user-ch7yv3qw1p]

I think somewhere in the UN climate projections it talks about how the current migrant 'crisis' in Europe has been about 2-4 million migrants moving into Europe, which has strained countries almost beyond their limit. Then it projects that there will be something like 750 MILLION more coming by 2030 (ish). That number is absolutely staggering. If they cannot accommodate 2-4 million, what are they going to do with 750 million more???

[@CountEverything]

Thanks Bill. I'm fascinated by the goings on in the US, although I suppose watching from 3,000 miles away is better than being there.

[@bill8985]

@@CountEverything Truly pathetic the Golfer-in-Chief was re-hired.

[@JohnnyBelgium]

Love your data dumps!

[@user-ch7yv3qw1p]

We're already running hotter than the chart on here!! We've hit 1.6 now they are saying. Its terrifying enough on paper and we are doing even worse than expected.

[@CountEverything]

There's natural variation, so they take the average of the previous 10 years. We might be at 1.6, but we don't know just yet.

[@user-ch7yv3qw1p]

@@CountEverything I realize they average it out to smooth out the variation, but sometimes I think it just waters it down so we can keep pretending! To use the numbers from 8, 9 or 10 years ago seems obsolete now, we will never go back there! We're going so fast now these methods of reporting are maybe not helping us make the right decisions :( Love your videos though! Thanks for making them.

[@JShrimpma]

​@@user-ch7yv3qw1p usually when the temperature increases due to short/medium term climatic cycles, there usually is a small cooling period but usually the high watermark year establishes the “new norm”. I think consistent 1.4-1.6c years won’t be far off.

[@Jc-ms5vv]

According to Andrew gliksons work we’ve already passed 2c

[@dawnalbright]

Very informative, with specific numbers and information.

[@rajdevarapalli4346]

Clear explanation as always.

[@spacemonkey-yj7ss]

computers are amazing things aren't they. quantifying the size of the shit sandwich we are about to eat. what you do next matters. ouch, wrong choice.

[@GregSteele-os8yp]

Now see here Count,if you don't need the money but I do then you seem to have graciously relieved me of the angst associated.Still wishing to encourage I offer this "chin up,old son,we like you."

[@paulgrandy1670]

Plus AI and humanoid robots are moving so much faster than ever imagined. Jobs will be few and far between. And the energy needed to run these will just contribute further to clime change. I was flooded in 2011 and 2022, Brisbane. Most of my street had to go and rent for up to two years, so further impacted the shortage of rentals in the area. More than just the victims are effected by the floods and fires. I'm leaving the area asap.

[@CountEverything]

Good luck!

[@jimgraham6722]

Part of the problem in Brisbane was real estates taking over local councils and pushing through residential zoning in known flood areas.

[@throughtheeyesofachild61_45]

Very interesting video

[@solarwind907]

Hoping I get hit by a meteor in a few years. I've been talking to people about climate change for at least 30 years. I'm a total failure at it. I will listen to your vid at least 2x. There's a lot of info there. Thank you very much.

[@a.randomjack6661]

Ask NC Helene victims what they think of FEMA... and the Gvt. response in general. The area is still devastated and has to rely on private help/donations.

[@danielfaben5838]

Anyone like the idea of sharing their home? How about having increasing competition for rentals, food and government services? How does it work for the increasingly reactionary (and gun toting) volumes of locals who listen to demagogues about being afraid of people from different areas, countries or continents? Humanitarians can tell others to be kind but will they open their own doors? When the SHTF, will most folks generally get hard and not be as charitable? Will most humans look after themselves first? I would migrate to the grave. So would many as chaos rules.

[@JShrimpma]

What you say reminds me of what happened during the Cultral Revolution in China. Their communist government ordered people with large flats and houses to accept other families, in a huge redistribution of housing and other resources. I fear the same scheme might be necessary if the economy is put on a wartime footing to deal with the aftermath of climate change affected disasters. There is no doubt that our quality of life will go down as we have to make do with less. I think with good management, and if the government can still maintain a sense of civic duty/pride in the population this reduction in quality of life can still be tolerable. Humans are very resilient and adaptable, and we can definitely accept a lower standard of living as long as we are convinced it is necessary. I think the population’s mental and physical health could even be maintained or improved as long as a sense of is instilled in the population.

[@thunderstorm6630]

sharing my home? yes, this is a good idea when the raiding for food start to happen in my town

[@danielfaben5838]

@ Great review. Also this was the reality, I believe, in the Warsaw ghetto. The squeeze was on until just about everyone perished. But if the support of an ecosystem is compromised, then all the scheming and transitions cannot recreate viability. Tolerable and possible are two different notions.

[@guyduincognito6416]

In Ukraine there are no more winters. Its 10 C degrees of warmth.

[@PaulaTourville-po7fg]

It will happen in the United States ....it will .... Maybe then they will understand what others around the world have and are dealing with .

[@IFSpecialist]

Commenting for the algorithm.

[@johnthomasriley2741]

That is, move or die trying. 😢