A commercial real estate 'tsunami' is coming, says Komal Sri-Kumar

Komal Sri-Kumar, president of Sri-Kumar Global Strategies, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the latest market trends, the looming commercial real estate crisis, impact on the Fed's rate path outlook, and more. For access to live and exclusive video from CNBC subscribe to CNBC PRO: cnb.cx/42d859g
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[@graywilliams_77.]

Real estate investors losing money is music to my ears. They are a major reason why the real estate market is the way that it is now.

[@graywilliams_77.]

Thanks for the efforts you put in these. I found her and i leave her a message i awit a respons.

[@lawerencemiller9720]

My wife and I, both in our 40s, married 14 years, 2 kids, only make 155K a year combined together. Only debt is the mortgage. We wouldn't know what to do with $400K a year. I'd like to see these people live on what we do. what could I do with this money to bring in more revenue for to cater for the kids?

[@alexyoung3126]

After studying the trajectory of great assets like real estate dividend paying stocks and gold, my conclusion is to buy and invest in what you can afford today! working with a financial advisor can certainly help R

[@bobbymainz1160]

Agreed, instead of panic or following a hearsay, I simply adopted the service of an advisor early 2020 amid covid-outbreak, and so far, I've attained my most measurable financial milestone of $650k after subsequent investments.

[@chris-pj7rk]

Opting for an inves-tment advisr is currently the optimal approach for navigating the market, particularly for those nearing retirement. I've been consulting with a coach for a while, and my portfolio has surged by 85% since 2022

[@johnlennon232]

Who is the coach that provides guidance for you? I urgently require assistance; my stock portfolio is stagnating, and I need investment advice for retirement.

[@chris-pj7rk]

Natalie Marie Tuttle is the licensed advisor I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.

[@mattmccracken1768]

"Janet Yellen does not think it is systemic". Not exactly a reliable source.

[@yangbomb2]

Price wont come down. Now, lowering interest rate at this point to save banks, and real estate sector for their stupid bet...normal folks will always suffer

[@BenTodd-fl8nv]

Housing crisis triggers a market crash or a financial crisis, it could send shockwaves through the stock markets worldwide. I’m worried about my investment of over $600K stocks. Is this a time to consider diversifying my portfolios?

[@A_francis]

If the housing market takes a hit, it might lead to reduced consumer spending and overall economic instability. I advice you consult with a professional about your investment portfolio to enable you to take advantage of the downturns.

[@Theresaa12]

Agreed, instead of panic or following a hearsay, I simply adopted the service of an advisor early 2020 amid covid-outbreak, and so far, I've attained my most measurable financial milestone of $750k after subsequent investments.

[@Theresaa12]

Opting for an inves-tment advisr is currently the optimal approach for navigating the stock market, particularly for those nearing retirement. I've been consulting with a coach for a while, and my portfolio has surged by 85% since 2022

[@HarrisRyan-oy8eo]

Who is the coach that provides guidance for you? I urgently require assistance; my stock portfolio is stagnating, and I need investment advice for retirement.

[@A_francis]

Thank you for the lead. I searched her up, and I have sent her an email. I hope she gets back to me soon.

[@babakd9892]

We need a compilation video of his takes since October, with the curb your enthusiasm music in the background

[@jasonzola3590]

Just because you are early doesn’t make you wrong. All the big short folks took big losses for a year before being proven right. Proper hedging is appropriate and there is none in market currently

[@joncruz92]

😂

[@Maryconnell256]

The Market have been suffering over the past month, with all the three indexes recording losses in recent weeks. My $400,000 portfolio is down by approximately 20%, any recommendations to scale up my returns before retirement will be highly appreciated.

[@Henrydonald1]

The market is volatile at this time, hence i will suggest you get yourself a financial-advisor that can provide you with entry and exit points on the shares/ETF you focus on.

[@jacksonlucas5933]

I agree. Based on personal experience working with an investment advisor, I currently have $385k in a well-diversified portfolio that has experienced exponential growth. It’s not only about having money to invest in stocks ,but you also need to be knowledgeable,persistent,and have strong hands to back it up.

[@blessingpeter5681]

I’m new to all this, heard it's a good time to buy and basically I've just got cash sitting duck in the bank and I’d really love to put it to good use seeing how inflation is at an all time-high, who is this coach that guides you, mind I look them up .

[@jacksonlucas5933]

Sure, the investment-advisor that guides me is..

[@jacksonlucas5933]

MARY TERESE SINGH

[@bpb5541]

This is only one of many issues that will start to play out this year.

[@Jake-pf4kv]

Soft landing, soft landing, soft landing, soft landing, soft landing. Soft landing 😂

[@FranksWorld1]

Mr Powell had said... not too worry toomuch about any banking... he said lending facilities have been setup for any bank that may need it... he already said ... fed will contain bank issues.

[@larryhorowitz6690]

Rate cuts and stopping QT are blunt tools. The Fed may be specific about providing funding for just the ailing sector, like they did for the SVB failure. That way, the fight against inflation is not abandoned.

[@super266]

"Bail the rich". Business as usual.

[@vasantos-re4hb]

#1 If it's private sector, it should be allowed to fail. #2 If there is systemic risk, then the Fed needs to provide specific support. Not a general easing of interest rates.

[@alwaysrelyonchrist]

He’s right. Rinse a repeat. But faster cycles.

[@erichvonmolder9310]

What Mr. Kumar is saying is different from what Powell has said. Powell wants to get to 2%, maybe not this year but then for Mr. Kumar saying that it will be higher to me means he is not listening to Powell. Now will Powell start cutting rates in May/June, maybe but that will depend on the data. Cutting rates aggressively the way Mr. Kumar surmises is dead wrong.

[@TheManInTheMasks]

I'm going to take the word of the guy who is in charge of monetary policy who has consistently stated that they are going to 2% inflation and has said repeatedly (and even more so lately) that they don't really need to lower rates with the economy running hot and unemployment very low. These clips where people make specific rate cut predictions in a specific timeframe tend to not age well on youtube.

[@jaker2187]

The govt continues to overspend. They’ll print more money and inflation is going to remain high.

[@mattg8431]

The only fear out there is the fear of missing out, if you think something is going to happen just buy some NVDA, it goes up every day

[@oppenheim2]

No one knows the future. But, current deflation in China is now being exported around the world. Even if he is right about future inflation here, it could lead to bankruptcies, hence deflation. Seems that deflation is the biggest risk.

[@72ravithota]

Sounds like people are searching for any credit event to get interest rates down as the debt servicing cost at high interest rates is unsustainable (over $ 1.6 Trillion / year of interest cost for US debt!). CRE situation is not the basis for rate cuts. It’s the basis for taking write downs on loan exposures and will erode Bank/ Lender equity / capital base. Not the reason for rates to come down especially when inflation is high!

[@canyonrun2565]

Yeah guy wants to save these banks and let inflation go wild

[@williamlloyd3769]

Banks with a CRE loan exposure have a known risk that stockholders will price into their holdings no matter what FRB does. Interest rate cuts will only stretch out these impacted banks on life support.

[@ronaldinho430]

Never believe anyone who claims they can predict interest rates. If they could, they'd be a trillionaire. Even Jerome Powell doesn't know what rates will be 12-18 months from now.

[@hymansahak181]

Exactly!

[@eddieyang7970]

Jerome Powell doesn’t know what interest rates will be tomorrow, they have said it a million times. They are data dependent.

[@anthonyballog8026]

If it's private lenders chances are it will not have an impact on stocks. It could spread to smaller banks but the fed is expected to cut soon.

[@ctzoomie]

Decade of free money created this problem. Free money to fix this problem. Hmmm

[@x1k790]

Yay! Free money 💰

[@thisguy73]

Remember when Santelli said 13% interest rates 4 months ago. Those were the days.

[@slytherben]

We’re in a 3 month long bull market that has only happened 17 times in US history. Doomers on Wall St are losing their jobs because they refuse to participate. Look at all small cap sectors yesterday. Every single one was up. The rally is broadening. This is the time to make money

[@bubba6989]

No one knows anything for certain. It could still be a bubble, the last stages of a bubble before the pop is euphoria.

[@FINSuojeluskunta]

@@bubba6989 Okay, people have been saying we're at the euphoria stage for 3+ years

[@bubba6989]

@@FINSuojeluskunta things can take a while to play out. We don't know.

[@bleacherz7503]

Low rates won’t solve commercial real estate

[@x1k790]

Agreed, They R FUKED

[@Patrick-yh5yd]

So many more Hotels and self storage buildings and truck parking areas being built in Orlando. Easy money for landlords but over built.

[@Andrew-dp5kf]

Where’s the moral hazard here? Banks need to not keep getting bailed out for making bad decisions

[@Talot]

Think about what he is saying... for the collapse to be avoided, the rates must be cut, which will allow inflation to return with a vengance... which will bring about a collapse anyway. The average joe can't handle any more price increases... they are stretched as it is. Woe to us if we dismiss the average consumers' needs, as without them, everything else collapses.

[@goldbrick2563]

Why would inflation return if interest rates decrease?

[@Talot]

@goldbrick2563 Because speculators like myself exist. If rates drop, we're going to bid up assets classes like real estate through the roof. That $500,000 house you see will have an asking price of $750,000 by the end of the following year. High rates is whats keeping cold water on inflation at the moment.

[@goldbrick2563]

@@Talot yeah but why would yall pay more for something than you have to? The real estate is already inflated. That $500k house is worth $250k right now

[@Talot]

@@goldbrick2563 Yes obviously there is a bubble in the real estate market... and in many other assets. But there is so little inventory, due to people sitting on their 3% fixed interest rates, that what little inventory there is being bidded up and either flipped, held for speculative capital gains, and/or rented out being that rental prices will continue to skyrocket for similar reasons.

[@twan102000]

Just wait until what happens if they decide to raise more. Hoping for cuts does not change reality.

[@samalan8214]

Love to see Sri-Kumar warning over and over again for months, and yet market keeps going up. The bears will be right one day, and then they'll claim they were right. Until then fully invested market participants will make money. But make no mistake -- these bears will look super intelligent for pointing out what everyone is missing.

[@Srednicki123]

vice-versa for the bulls that keep say everything will go up

[@samalan8214]

@@Srednicki123 in the past 15 years, the bears have been looking for the next crash after the Great Financial Crisis every year, and they got it right on two occasions with only one year in which we had a substantial decline for the year (2022), while the bulls have been right for 14 years.

[@cashcow4383]

In my city we have 20 newstrip malls with fast food, hair salons i dont see how this many restraunts can compete, within in a 1 mile area there are 9 places to buy Subs. what the heck Are they making any money I can see if you are the only guy in town selling sangwiches but dang 9of them , plus burrito, pizza places, you name it.

[@coreyleander7911]

When will this dude ever be positive? Lol

[@daft9inety6ixer57]

When he decides he wants to be wrong. He nailed the timing on this one, a few months ago people were talking about whether we would have cuts in 2024 lol

[@joserivera7349]

Higher inflation means people will not spend money because of higher prices and this will create a bigger problem.

[@kylepatterson4793]

It should have let everything that was in solvent Ghostbusters no government vl intervention then companies Wont take systemic risks

[@HeaventreePromotions]

I encounter tons of foreigners, at least in my State, that are contributors. Also, taxes, plus highrr expenses. And 9/10, cpmmercial real estate owners have keot every penny and havent put a dime into tjose buildings for 40+ years. They are run down and garbage and they want business owners to lease their garbage and fix and charge going rates. The ones in slum shape dhould be taken from the owners and sold to someone who cares.

[@angrybrit129]

They only pay tax if legal and majority are not , so reality is they get a share of your tax and work illegally on top

[@paulg2059]

Quit messing with the rates and just build more houses

[@caliboy2498]

Inflation is wayyyyy up I m broke due to inflation as of today I m paying triple of everything, car insurance , grocery , taxes , fastfood, rent anything day to day use etc I m phd in economics. Powell has to do much more yet to make affordability not give false hope of rate cuts. He stopped so soon. Evenif he stops at CPI 2% he gotta hold to it not just start cutting rates immediately. Shame on Powell he doesn’t care about Americans only stock market and rich people. Let leveraged banks and businesses take loss why discuss rate cuts. I even doubt CPI numbers around 3% they r fake ask yourself a question do u see price reductions in any field. These numbers are fake as compared to real inflation poor inflation are going through. Home prices are all time high in my city (Manteca, CA)

[@umeshmahindra]

Is he ever right?

[@X_crypto1977]

Rezone certain commercial real estate into mixed residential zone

[@zanquilladus1]

We are going to keep it going with the AI tech climb. This year is the year not to worry about politics. We shall move forth in the year of personal wealth. Let’s keep it climbing no matter what the Feds comes up with….We like to Move it Move it.

[@jeppebjerring-srensen1524]

😅But , the man is right.....! See it happen soon 😮

[@vrag111]

where did they found this guy.

[@shepherdsknoll]

This prediction has been coming for quite a while.

[@super266]

Billionaires: "Who cares if inflation is high? I has opulence".

[@bubpori5105]

The big Banks do hold Substantial Amounts of Commercial Paper Coming Due ! 2008 they held Residential Mortgage notes 6.999% witch went Delinquent the Highest Amount ever ! Inflation Should be Down By the end of the Year Any more Uptick would Squeeze A Already Tight Margin !.

[@AH-fm7rj]

100 years later. Commercial real estate tsunami is getting nearer. These guys do anything to make the FED cut rate and start QE again.🤣

[@Allaiya.]

exactly

[@Patrick-yh5yd]

Depends on what type buildings?

[@stevenjackson7830]

No way they do that many cuts

[@realtyrewind371]

Keep hearing it but nothing ever happens

[@godzillamothra5983]

you can't kick the can down the road forever, 2008 debts are calling

[@grandmiserthe3rd434]

.........in other words ....print more money Melisa .....!!!

[@x1k790]

Make it rain ☔️ 💵

[@MasterRichStocksOptions]

😎

[@scottjackson6817]

This guy reminds me of a “Don’t Pass Bet” Crap player. I take the all in player for now, we are on a roll, let it ride for a bit

[@S0UNDMONEY]

😊

[@tbd1613]

If he is correct the market will zoom much higher due to the Fed intervention.

[@manuvns]

Doom and gloom may not work now!

[@sandydixson7999]

We already have a landscape of empty commercial buildings We the people need to give Wall Street a running account of empty buildings that already exist Wall Street doesn't get profits from the consumer but from their employees Quit working for them Wall Street investors profits gains or losses are not the American public or governments business

[@sleclerc9477]

I learn about it this morning

[@Tpfunlimited]

this guy been calling for this "credit event" for the last 4 months ...and according to him 3 months ago the "tsunami" is in Feb now he pushed to "May June" LOL

[@samthedoor]

Still talking about commercial real estate and the banking crisis

[@a88888888a]

Pretend and extend

[@meehanasap]

Translation the FED is going to protect wealthy people who don't know how to manage their money at the expense of average citizens

[@jordanslingluff287]

That's what Republicans and Democrats do.

[@arnaudb3784]

Instead of staying that platitude , he should have stayed in his country.

[@Mudslinger3]

donny on the way

[@Fred-yd9md]

Melissa looks sassy in sleeveless 😊

[@Allaiya.]

These guys want their cheap money. The Fed would be ok with some uptick in unemployment.

[@MichaelChengSanJose]

Ah, we’re back to the borrow and buy play of 2021 this year.

[@jhull5870]

Kumar has been so wrong for so long but CNBC keeps bringing him on. Eventually he may be correct.

[@JHartless1488]

Hyperinflation or next great depression. Take the medicine and swallow the pill. Great depression now

[@Palantir_Daily]

Cut rates and we say hello to inflation

[@requiem5179]

The next time they print, its over.

[@victimoffame2389]

Homes should loose 40% of their value to restore faith in this economy.

[@nlabanok]

Try working harder instead of whining.

[@LV-ei1ce]

Or get smart and add value to economy and push gdp?

[@goneviral8814]

Word!

[@amdave76]

Why is this guy famous? Has he made any good calls?

[@NasdaqSlayer]

Lmfao they bring out this guy when the market is about to pop off.,....

[@pangmeister]

lol, this guy is dreaming. If inflation is here, your commercial real estate default is not a crisis. 1T of debt lost is just half of Nvidia.

[@michaelwatson113]

This is the backdrop to ckrporations trykng to get all their employees to return to work.

[@Kelly_kit16]

The Fed shouldn't lower interest rates just to please greedy millionaires.

[@illegalsmirf]

Thank you, come again!

[@brycesattler2301]

☯️

[@deejaaay7600]

Fed won’t lower rates until banks crumble

[@7_of_9]

💯 commercial real estate died in 2020!!!

[@damonkatos4271]

We’ve been waiting for commercial real estate to collapse and the next big bail out to come out. Watch the mega rich get a bail out, again.

[@jimbojimbo6873]

What race is that man

[@rickhayes-oh2zm]

qe means inflation. So you want more genius.

[@Hofftimusprime1]

Another bailout coming.

[@nickrook5519]

One word Ðoge.

[@ManassehDon]

Jerome Powell told you exactly what he will do, and yet another Turtle-neck boomer, knows more then Jerome Powell and can predict the future better than Jerome Powel.

[@preilly96]

This guy is clueless

[@EthelbertCoyote]

He should have a KZbin cooking channel for "How to cook your economy: Blackened Golden Goose" but it would get rid or the immigration crisis... because no one would come here.

[@JK-ks3xq]

Pump before the dump. Dont be a chump!

[@bender5835]

Why he is not shaking his head?

[@Fred-yd9md]

This dude is a crying baby… vast majority of offices are in person now.. vacancy rate is going lower each month… here in Texas before covid office building vacancy was 14%, now it’s about 18%… I wouldn’t call 4% increase a tsuanami😂 there will be some headwinds but nothing too crazy

[@dushmaestro]

He keeps saying systemic. It’s systematic!! How he manages a portfolio and doesn’t know the difference between systemic and systematic?

[@applelap24]

Yes there is a difference but he wasn’t wrong in his reference or usage