A Second Arab Spring: Imminent or Impossible?

As unrest simmers throughout the Middle East, echoes of the initial Arab Spring resonate amid similar economic triggers, fueling speculation about a potential second wave. Many are beginning to ask: Is a second Arab Spring on the horizon? Where is the spark likely to come from, and have the governments in the region fortified their strategies to quell such popular uprisings? We put these questions and more to our panel of experts:
On the panel this week:
- David Schenker (Washington Inst)
- Michael Sexton (Third Way National Security)
- Rich Outzen (Atlantic Council)
Intro - 00:00
PART 1 - 03:07
PART 2 - 22:00
PART 3 - 42:22
Outro - 1:01:55
Also Check Out:
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- Saudi Arabia: • Saudi Arabia: A Global...
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[@NathanHearn-ms7vv]

Great content guys. You asked a great question - why do Islamist’s always have a head start on secular parties. Another answer to that is, dictatorships hollow out and persecute secular political rivals with broad popular support. They tend to tolerate religious entities as a way to appease religious citizens while discrediting and delegitimizing secular and technocratic opposition groups they see as the real threat. It’s a survival mechanism of dictatorships, so when the dictator is toppled, the secularists have to rebuild from scratch (and their leaders died long ago in prison) while religious groups are already a formed entity.

[@requited2568]

Religion and government are also doctrinally very close in most Islamic faiths.

[@commanderred1948]

It's simply a bad analysis. The truth is because all these ideologies are unpopular, why do you think the US spends billions to combat Islam in the middle east and says it is on an ideological campaign unprecendented since the cold war? It's because Islam has popular support meanwhile stupidity such as Communism, Socialism, and Liberalism are despised.

[@g1y3]

Arab world have secular parties but they were also socialist, they have some an association with current regimes due to them being secular, I think you should use liberal parties here instead of secular.

[@marioblas6019]

I've been a listener to Economics Explained for years, now you two are combining forces on Context Matters!

[@ianshaver8954]

Success is imitated, failures are avoided. The first Arab Spring makes a second one less likely, as the autocrats have integrated the tools of the 21st century into their continuation of power, and the people of the Middle East have been disillusioned by the failure of the first Arab Spring.

[@hulkhogan4203]

we're still waiting for Arab Summer, Fall and Winter first.

[@jamestiffin2579]

Really liked this : a difficult topic done well . Thankyou

[@Hashkovo]

Brilliant piece

[@Sabu113]

I think your content is fine as is. Love your guests and interviewing style

[@jayturner3397]

Interesting article 👍 uk 🇬🇧

[@requited2568]

Pegasus is a joint Israeli and American project. One of the Maxwell sisters was also involved with the company.

[@g1y3]

Pretty wrong that Bahrain is considered success, it was an Petrostate & they have better oil market now hence it looks better, it also a pro-western dictatorship hence viewed favourably. Also in Egypt mubark was overthrown not the Egyptian military (the real power brokers)

[@timstadlmueller58]

Well done

[@christophermcanally1246]

It'll be interesting to see how techs like Starlink change things where it's outside local government control.

[@aklibakli]

can you explain further how would starlink make a difference?

[@christophermcanally1246]

@@aklibakli Arab governments have gotten really good at cutting the internet in times of stress and are experimenting with Chinese-style internet controls. Egypt under El-Sisi is a good example. Starlink does an end-run around the control of (mostly) government utilities. The government will no longer have a monopoly on Internet service.

[@Tacticalerth]

There eas already second arab spring

[@joanofarc6402]

I vote imminent! Every group is so frustrated with poor leadership. I would include America in this. Altho I don’t know what to call it ? American Spring, sounds boring, needs to be more descriptive.

[@BingusDingusLingus]

How about red October 😂

[@6Ligma]

"Tor is undetectable!" Ok Boomer.

[@requited2568]

To elaborate for others, TOR and the Dark web was developed, probably better to say supported, by the USA three letter agencies for color revolutions and insurgency groups to operate against their "hostile" governments. Which is part of what created the situation for the Arab spring, not necessarily the tools but the support of insurgent groups against governments they deemed ripe for change. Granted though, your average person will mess up somewhere and expose their identity but used properly it can keep them anonymous. But yes it can still be seen and like with the silk road guy, one mistake ties everything to you.

[@winnykrasny7413]

Not possible. It will happen soon and al mahdi will come and take over the whole arab and united to be one muslim nations.

[@eminbe338x]

KZbin kanalımdan 🎁 selamlar efendim

[@ianshaver8954]

Success is imitated, failures are avoided. The first Arab Spring makes a second one less likely, as the autocrats have integrated the tools of the 21st century into their continuation of power, and the people of the Middle East have been disillusioned by the failure of the first Arab Spring.