Agenda: With George Friedman on China

[@cnordegren]

It is 2023 as I am writing this and Friedman is a visionary!

[@wothin]

Friedman fights a strawman here. Almost nobody says that China is now a superpower, but that its rise is removing USA's power. Plus aircraft carriers are not some sort of experience points which show how big of a superpower you are. Those are mainly expensive toys which are more or less obsolete in this age.

[@theLutheran1]

US and their allies together need to produce, crew, and maintain two carrier groups for every single Chinese carrier

[@bonkersblock]

China has an aircraft carrier that used to be a casino, and building a second aircraft carrier that is a replica of that casino!

[@JustinJohnson-kb8ny]

No Deal with Communists. 100% tariffs

[@Kyle_Schaff]

*Justin Johnson* What you just said has the same political insight and understanding of macroeconomics as drying paint. Do you ever feel a little uncomfortable with yourself? That you maybe sometimes become a little self-aware of how you’re just kinda talking from your feels, not bothering to learn the specifics of the ideas and terms you’re throwing around? Frankly, I’d be embarrassed.

[@Withnail1969]

Here in 2020 China just successfully tested a carrier killer ballistic missile. It flew 2,000 km from the mainland and hit a moving target ship in the South China Sea. Also China, Japan and 12 other countries just signed an Asian Free Trade Agreement. The agreement excludes the USA.

[@eliterun6214]

I feel like this was an analysis of where China WAS as opposed to where it will/might be. Quite disappointing. Also, really weird conflation of low-margin growth being a no-win economic proposition; in the world of startups, the common wisdom in the VC world is to secure a monopoly position, and then increase margin. China can do much the same. Sure, they have challenges ahead, but it seems like the analysis here was "they have challenges ahead. Impossible!" instead of "they have challenges ahead, unlikely but possible". Also very curious as to your "1 billion people in absolute poverty!" remark, given that there are 800 million people in urban areas in China as of 2017, and the average household income of urban households was ~5k USD by official rates, which likely understate real purchasing power. Given that even the beggars on the street were well-off enough to have a smartphone with a QR code for donations on my trip 6 months ago, I am quite skeptical.

[@nkpthai69]

George, I love you man and I follow STRATFOR religiously but F-14 Tomcats have been decommissioned for quite some time. Perhaps is was just a fluke, and you meant FA-18.

[@MooseMeus]

he misspoke.

[@robertcalamusso4218]

Now 3 Carriers 2022

[@garysymons410]

After I left South Africa ,which is slowly shifting its allegiance to China , I came to Australia which cannot escape Chinese dominance economically but so far this has been a force for mutual benefit, except that Oz can no longer manufacture anything not even candy and Oz would not exist at all but for the USA, Navy so I appreciate Dr Friedman's balanced expose ., and deplore some vulgar youtube comments , and dont forget Dr Friedman predicted all the EU troubles .

[@luckylock4191]

2:30 "they've launched their first Aircraft carrier....that means they have one Aircraft Carrier". Make that 3 Aircraft Carriers as of October 2022. They are building another 3 and should have 6 total within 4-5 years. Compare that to USA with 11 Total Aircraft Carriers since ww2 (75years) id say China is catching up quite fast

[@FaridaAref]

The economic and military power of China and America cannot be compared. According to one of the elders, China is a great continental power, but America is only hyper power of the world. Love 🇺🇸 from Afghanistan/khorasan

[@christopherdarker1426]

A large , fast growing , shallow rooted plant !

[@victorsempiana7099]

Shut this guy up, what he is speaking about China is what American is

[@hanzhang3589]

George Friedman makes a self contradiction in his argument. On one hand, he states that vast majority of Chinese people are so poor that they can’t afford to buy what China produces. Hence, China is reliant on the western market. Then he mentions that Chinese wages are rising so quickly that Chinese products are no longer competitive, and that would trigger a banking crisis as factories go out of business. But, if Chinese wages are indeed increasing that quickly, wouldn’t the Chinese be able to finally afford their own product?

[@Withnail1969]

he just spouts different streams of nonsense. he forgets to connect them.

[@pabloramirez158]

It's called the middle income trap, when your population is too poor to buy the things they produce but too expensive to sell cheap goods to other countries

[@flyerzy]

This guy is living in last century

[@Withnail1969]

he is, all his views are 1990s era when it comes to China.

[@robertcalamusso4218]

Everytime they add one we need to had one

[@ZxZ239]

As a Chinese, I hope more and more American sees this video and believes him. For fellow Chinese, please don't feel upset about your feeling being hurt, its far better for your rivals to believe you are weak than you are strong.

[@ajx9747]

how can there be Chinese on KZbin ?

[@ajx9747]

u think we r fools

[@VX2hugo]

right. Any Chinese gets on KZbin will be tossed into the Pacific immediately. Just believe that.

[@streetrider2487]

haha as usual, a swollen head from a Mainland Chinese. hahahaha pls recognize your own weakness. hahahaa

[@tehranaustin6554]

jackliu239. Wise thought . Funny part is MOST Ameriskunts wont understand😂😂

[@brettquimby3274]

Despite the upload date, this seems to be an older video. Also, Stratfor is full of pundits as well, which means they can know a lot of information, but not have the answers.

[@3506Dodge]

Friedman was right!

[@wothin]

How?

[@3506Dodge]

@@wothin He's right that China isn't an incipient global power.

[@wothin]

@@3506Dodge it is tho

[@Withnail1969]

@@3506Dodge it clearly is, my house is full of Chinese tech products nowadays and the quality is great. the change has been huge in the last decade. all that money is going to China now to help them develop even more.

[@3506Dodge]

@@Withnail1969 No it isn't. There is no "chinese tech." It's all stolen from western corporations and governments.

[@mtnxlx]

I hope this is true.?

[@streetrider2487]

F15, not 14

[@VX2hugo]

Please please let this guy be in charge of all geopolitical decisions of US.

[@chairde]

This is spot on analysis.

[@skyhor]

Friedman:Chinese are so poor that they can not afford their products they produced; Friedman:The wages of Chinese workers are higher than Mexican, and the factories are moving out of China. My question: Are Chinese workers poor or not so poor?

[@mauricegeorge4320]

skyhor LOL.LOL.LOL..

[@alexbaker6797]

skyhor answer both are poor.

[@JB-fg7ty]

Don't be afraid to ask. Hong Kong is the 2nd most expensive place to live. New York is 3rd. As with all capitalism, there are both very rich and in mainland China very poor. There are many billionaires and millionaires throughout China. In terms of US dollars I would suggest a few trillionaires as well. In Shangai too there are many super rich. The newly rich from industrial cities are buying lots of flats in Hong Kong because of its prestige, which only inflates the price more. In select areas the price is even more. A friend recently sold a three bedroom flat near Happy Valley for $5,000,000 if that puts some perspective on prices in the better class neighbourhoods.

[@MooseMeus]

if they are paid more then the goods they produce will cost more, which means people will buy goods from someone else who can produce them more cheaply. which means no more job, which means, really poor.

[@MooseMeus]

the world does not have a trillionaire. bill gates is the richest man on planet earth at 81 billion

[@ElonTusk889]

Denial

[@whitephoenixofthecrown2099]

We'll see. But I believe that fortunately China will NEVER surpass the United States.

[@HxH2011DRA]

Clown

[@richarddavis8863]

Of course a HiatusxHiatus fan has no conception of global economic policy. Us One Piece Chads stay well-versed in geopolitics

[@Aeros802]

@7:10 Friedman states that China does not have enough workers then how much is needed? 1.3 people no one has a larger labor force. He is full of it.

[@ckev18]

if you are a factory owner in south china, you will know what shortage of workers means.....ppl dont like factory work no more.....

[@edwardtang1977]

Global "intelligence". Hahahaha!

[@MooseMeus]

he's firm makes a lot of money. some very intelligent men from a lot of different backgrounds who make predictions and analysis of geopolitical events. he wouldnt make a lot of money if he was bad at it. you keep laughing though. maybe you should try to understand what he is saying and the why.

[@MegaGrawp]

@@MooseMeus You can see here that he makes three points. First he uses quotes around intelligence, so we know he thinks it's dumb. Second he follows with Hahahaha so that we understand he thinks it's funny. Then he finished with the exclamation point! This way we know that he's confident. All around a fantastic and persuasive internet argument really. It's a shame AOL, myspace and yahoo answers are dead because I could definitely see his post getting some traction there.

[@MooseMeus]

@@MegaGrawp it's funny getting responses from comments that were left years ago :P

[@mptang1]

1 bn Chinese living in absolute poverty? Where did he get this information from?

[@sdushdiu]

Facts

[@JMM333]

20-30 years for studies. 2.300.000+ soldiers at the moment. 1,386 billion people (2017).

[@hamidshehzad3788]

Over a billion people in China in absolute poverty? Did he pull that figure out of his hat?

[@billejean1705]

Why does this guy thinks that if China doesn't have this or that at this moment, it'll never have them in the future either. Reporting from 2022 China has 3 aircraft carriers and has started developing the 4th. This guy suffers from envy and optimism. Not a good combination.

[@0906SKY]

The point of view of PaperTiger ^^

[@yogi9631]

The guys living in the mid 90's 🤣🤣🤣🤣

[@hamidshehzad3788]

He lied about the poverty in China.

[@leightonjulye]

USA just dodged the bullet; you just don't know

[@MegaGrawp]

I remember when I used to tell the ignorant to watch stratfor. Now you're here acting just as stupid. You have to be a paid shill, it's simply impossible for you to be this dense. Nice mushroom cloud and weird but generic real name.

[@radiack123]

China just passed the US lmao

[@whitephoenixofthecrown2099]

What world do you live in lol