The Next 100 Years: A forecast for the 21st century. George Friedman

In this Sydney Writers’ Festival session, internationally renowned security and intelligence expert George Friedman talks to Michael Sexton about the key ideas of his new book, The Next 100 Years: A forecast for the 21st Century. They discuss the changes we can expect around the world during the twenty-first century. Part 1 of 2
George Friedman is founder and chief intelligence officer of STRATFOR, which analyses and forecasts trends in world affairs, and he is the author of several books, including The Future of War.
Sydney, May 2009

[@Turkishdefence2024]

16:50 Turkish Power will be the leader finish French in 1 hour if they show up

[@maxi-me]

@BERNARD BURGUIERE I watched a map for an hour but nothing happened

[@dragonfly1929]

BASHI BUZUK..

[@maxi-me]

Rama Lama ding dong

[@sinaneken3601]

😁😁

[@Thanos_Kyriakopoulos]

That's what they said in 2009, because the French didn't help them in Airaq!!! Hahaha!!! Watch what they say now that the Turks bought Russian weapons... Vive la France!!! Personally, whenever this guy says it's gonna rain, I take sunglasses.

[@imoneixusa9742]

13:45 rise of Poland and Turkey

[@taylorworthington9394]

My opinion is that he looks like a cross between Bill Maher and George Bush.

[@miyojewoltsnasonth2159]

+Taylor Worthington I actually am aware of George Friedman. Despite that, looking at "The Next 100 Years" and the tinypic, I thought the tinypic was W. I was baffled who would pay W to give such a lecture. As it turns out: They didn't.

[@jcyt0511]

I agree. First I thought Bush, Then I saw some Maher. He talks more like Maher. He has that mouth thing going.

[@briannxx]

Such an intelligent observation

[@hasanmahmood653]

This George guy is an idiot and a low IQ IDIOT. He has successfully duped the Americans and the Europeans. All his forecast are wrong in 2019. He claims himself as a great intellectual. His audience are more stupid and idiotic than he is, that's why they are applauding him. Most of the statistics given are wrong. Hahahaha!

[@shanedavis3418]

Thanks, I kept seeing Dubyah but I couldn't figure out the mother. It's clearly Maher.

[@kianh1903]

All the more, we shud be carefully humble what you learned from people or expert like this guy. There is no such thing as know all, nowadays.

[@gremlinsaregold8890]

He must be psychic so... Cos this was after all 2007/08... And now it turn out that Poland really will be the new Germany of Europe... Probably along with Ukraine. China really is in trouble cos overexposure by banks and low returns. And Japan really is out of the closet. So either Friedman is psychic... Or he simply followed the breadcrumbs. Yeah I know...this comment was 3 years ago... Pre pandemic...and he just got lucky. But Friedman has been this lucky for a few decades now.

[@imoneixusa9742]

16:46 Turkey 18:57 Poland

[@jonahfriedman6715]

14:10: "If in 1900 I told you all the British and French empires would collapse, a third world country with a 50% literacy rate would dominate the world (The United States), and the center of gravity of international industrialism would be north-east Asia, they'd carry me out in a padded suit and give me medication. Nothing is a worse guide to the future than common sense. "

[@melissaamericanmade9831]

+Jonah: That's one of my favorite quotes of this lecture. I also like when he points out that many Americans would prefer the US being just a democratic republic.

[@matthewhall1597]

The U.S. had almost universal literacy in 1900. You're insane.

[@tommyodonovan3883]

Jonah Friedman The superpower in 1900 was UK, it's 500yr foreign policy was to destroy, weaken, control the USA/China/France/Ger/Russia, any nation that threatened its vital national intreats, as defined by the British oligarchs; sea wolves, state monopolists, East India co., Hudson's Bay co...

[@jdee8407]

He is right the Europeans looked to the USA as somewhat backwards back then, regardless of all the inventions or other things coming out of it.

[@luckychops2162]

Matthew Hall, you must keep in mind the very high illiteracy rates among immigrants, at the time between 1/3 and 1/2 of the country where the poorest of immigrants from central and southern Europe. I would put things somewhere in between George and you due to this.

[@Bigboii5479]

how long ago was this?

[@swcblad]

Say hello from 2019.

[@pyc1757]

Stop. Leave now. 2020 sucks.

[@AndrewIsbell]

8:07 Chinese buying condoms! haha

[@DatsWhatXiSaid]

He's got major yellow fever and it just slipped.

[@stevenliu3744]

even that is wrong haha since china has stopped the one child policy

[@shic6721]

@sasquatch United States fuckers should stop using condoms as after 10 years or even less, Mexican will occupy the USA. The white will become minority in the USA, not even saying compete with the Chinese

[@melvinklark4088]

@@shic6721I hope English isn't your first language

[@haystackdmilith]

17:12 - haahaha true!

[@vlkn900]

"Turkey could take Germany in an afternoon and France in an Hour if they turn up" hahahaha :))

[@pirategamers4082]

vlkn900 this is the truth bro:)

[@complication_nation1153]

vlkn900 remember 100 years ago how many it took to stop germany - many Turks chinees african Russian amerikan other middel eastern countrys ..... ECT and The list go on and on your schould already Now that 😎😎💪🏻💪🏻

[@Aceuu_]

France launched Cruise missiles in Syria how many hit it's targets ?!??!😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂

[@Aceuu_]

Germany has only 4 combat ready Eurofighters according to RT France has old Eurofighters but Turkey is getting even stronger than these two

[@emreerdogan1869]

vlkn900 bizans killing win ottoman ???

[@swayzy762]

This video is proof how quickly world economies and powers can clip in 10yrs.

[@brettquimby3274]

Mr. Friedman has been talking about Japan attempting to rebuild an empire for itself ever since 1990. In his book, The Coming War with Japan, he said that the Soviet Union would collapse, China would fissure, and America would retreat from the Asia-Pacific. His 2009 book, The Next 100 Years, says the same thing. He clearly hasn't changed his view very much. That's why I don't have much confidence in what he's saying.

[@brettquimby3274]

+Fre Go What do you mean?

[@josephzaccardi5686]

+Brett Quimby Ya... "the next hundred years" almost all of his predictions start in 2020... so....ya

[@brettquimby3274]

+Joseph Zaccardi What are you saying? That you still think Mr. Friedman's predictions are feasible in your mind or that he's let the predictions start in the year 2020 so people will still pay attention to him?

[@josephzaccardi5686]

Yes I do, obviously it's a prediction made during a very specific time. It won't be 100% accurate for sure, in facts events could occur at any time that would nullify it all. However saying that his predictions are completely inaccurate when we haven't even reached the date of the predictions is obviously wrong. I think his reasoning is sound, but I do think it's possible that it will play out differently. What I enjoy about the "what if talks" is that it bring out some possible ilities people would usually ignore along with the reasoning it may occur.

[@brettquimby3274]

Joseph Zaccardi Let's just say that I follow the Philip Tetlock stance on predictioners with the Foxes and Hedgehog analogy.

[@emrahvural6541]

if Turkey can beat Germans in the afternoon and french in an hour if they showed up so what could Turkey do to Greece if they wanted to ?

[@b0za]

Probably 1913 would have repeated. All the Balkan Peninsula states would join as back then to support Greece (Romania, Serbia, hopefully Bulgaria and Albania). Sadly that might not be enough to stop the modernized Turkey.

[@ragpaysever2260]

​@@b0za Albania is pro-Turkiye

[@abdulsonday9370]

It is interesting that these lectures are recorded as one can guage, how corrwct these predictions really are.

[@johnthatcher2349]

Excellent I formative speech

[@pekau]

I love how he brought out Turkey. It is perhaps among the most underrated power today. The reason why I doubt the current EU is because they are so eager to bring in countries in the Balkans and the Eastern Europe, but they neglect Turkey. Turkey will become far more influential player as the Middle East destabilize further. I do not have such optimism for Japan as he did. Yes, they have a pretty good navy but the demographic issues is becoming huge, and Japan's economic capability is now questionable due to suffering demographics, government's refusal to significantly broaden immigration to keep the industries competitive, and emergence of other nations (Ex. Korea, China, and some countries in Southeastern Asia) who can deliver similar, if not superior, goods that Japan used to monopolize in Asia. Japan continues to decline, and I don't think they can make a big comeback since the nightmare policies they've conducted since the mid-80s. I believe China still has a long long way to go, and I like how he addressed many of the Chinese domestic issues. I like the general direction of where China is going and I think they'll become a far more powerful nation one day... but they will have to resolve many of the issues that keeps China handicapped and it will take decades (even setbacks through recession, violence or even small-scale wars) and I don't see any my future in China... but beyond my lifetime, China is the future. That does not mean China should be ignored in your career portfolio. Huge surge of Chinese middle class/high class would mean regardless of whether they stay in mainland or be braindrained to western worlds, they will still play important role in the world economy. Learning Chinese is not a waste of time even if they won't be able to get to USA level within our lifetimes

[@niks1na]

pekau you talk for demographic issues and YOU FAVOUR Turkey as a ,,great power''. You and jewish gentlemen from Stratfor forgot about one very important demographic issue in TURKEY - 20 MILLION KURDS. 20 million !!! 20 000 000 Kurds, they hate Turkey, they hate Turks and they have TWICE birth rates of turks - in turkic regions birth rate is 11 - 12 per 1000 in kurdish regions birth rate is 27 - 28 per 1000 ! Kurds WILL BE MAJORITY in Turkey in 40 to 50 years - SO WHAT THE FUCK GREAT POWER WILL BE TURKEY ?!

[@johnkim5125]

niks1na To start off, it's a bit of a far-stretch to call Stratfor a Jewish lobby group (Friedman himself is a Hungarian who immigrated to USA after Hungary was occupied by Soviet Union). He is also the same person who challenges the traditional view that Israel is an important ally of USA, so I don't think your scapegoating has legit claim. Furthermore, I highly doubt that the Kurds will have enough power to play significant influence over Turkey. While demography helps for the Kurds, but it's not the endgame. Look at India or African nations with healthy demography but have very limited power projection around themselves. And Kurds are not Israel - that is, they don't have the experience of running a country (or have any experience fielding military on a large scale), the Kurds themselves are scattered by tribal system somewhat similar to Afghan warlord/tribe structure. Kurds have not penetrated middle-class and high class social hierarchy of Turkey. The Kurds have as much chance of having serious influence over Turkish society as much as Palestinians have over Israel. To this day, Kurds have never achieved any form of sovereignty from any Middle-Eastern nations. (Exception of Iraq, but was only after their military and power dominance was completely destroyed by the West). I could be wrong, of course. But so far, fat chance for Kurds to get any serious voice anytime soon.

[@mugorum7127]

Men the Kurds and the Arabs will never fight agein turks because they know the Turks will not show mercy. The Arabs, Kurds and other minorities like Laz will support Turkey for religious reasons. North Afrika, Pakistan, the turkic countries , Indonesia, Malaysia etc.. supports Turkey.

[@ekremtunc819]

niks1na YOU ARE AN IGNORANT AS FUCK!

[@barahng]

Aegean A The former seat of the Ottoman Empire calling any one else "imperialist" is hilarious.

[@Bill-xx2yh]

He’s so close. Will be Ukraine and Poland. A TWIN STAR. This will do more than expected, for the world.

[@kayumochi]

You may be right. Poland has certainly become a player in the Russian war on Ukraine.

[@Bill-xx2yh]

Thank you it’s (of course) just a shot in the dark! Prayer here for a strong and financially prosperous PEACE.

[@usernwn7qe]

​@@kayumochi Poland is a nobody, half of the population works as prostitutes in western brothels and the other half harvest asparagus for 5€ an hour, ask any German. Britain alone has close to 1 Million Polish guestworkers begging for citizenship, the holocaust for Jews was Brexit for Poles.

[@DonCarlosHormozi]

What a great lecture! Great content! The speaker looks a lot like Shane Dietrich.

[@TheTeknoe]

Good Show

[@aelbion1453]

Pretty sure Britain controlled pretty much all the world's oceans itself at one point. It's not a uniquely American trait, though America has perfected the technique.

[@FreedomIsNotGoingToBeFree]

British didn't/couldn't care about most of the oceans. They controled mostly most of their own waters (which was pretty large indeed).

[@PANZZEROSKR1]

No friend there's about three more episodes he talks about Brazil Argentina etc. Etc. This person has been accurate in everything he's said.

[@sanjayvaidya4925]

Should call him back today August 2022.

[@johnpatterson6448]

9years ago. How things have changed.

[@elifelgun9996]

Long live my homeland 🇹🇷🇹🇷❤️

[@ufuker5754]

As bayrakları as as as ahh keşke ama bence süper güç değil Bi kimliğimiz oturtup kendimize yol cizmek daha önemli

[@thecasualfront7432]

Well that aged well

[@umedavk2011]

I found this to be very interesting until I realised that this talk was taking place in 1985 !!! A heck of a lot has changed since then.

[@hong3170]

I think It was about 2000-2005. He said 1991 Japan. But anyway he was totally wrong.

[@karinabright7313]

He is also talking about president Obama....so definitely not 1985! :-) And he is so wrong...

[@dionevanrooyen9769]

The video is 6 years old.

[@hotwireman49]

"In the year 2525, if man is still alive If woman can survive, they may find In the year 3535 Ain't gonna need to tell the truth, tell no lie Everything you think, do and say Is in the pill you took today In the year 4545 You ain't gonna need your teeth, won't need your eyes You won't find a thing to chew Nobody's gonna look at you In the year 5555 Your arms hangin' limp at your sides Your legs got nothin' to do Some machine's doin' that for you In the year 6565 You won't need no husband, won't need no wife You'll pick your son, pick your daughter too From the bottom of a long glass tube In the year 7510 If God's a coming, He oughta make it by then Maybe He'll look around Himself and say Guess it's time for the judgment day In the year 8510 God is gonna shake His mighty head He'll either say I'm pleased where man has been Or tear it down, and start again In the year 9595 I'm kinda wonderin' if man is gonna be alive He's taken everything this old earth can give And he ain't put back nothing Now it's been ten thousand years Man has cried a billion tears For what, he never knew, now man's reign is through But through eternal night, the twinkling of starlight So very far away, maybe it's only yesterday" Zager and Evans

[@Burkutace27]

It's time to play the George Friedman Drinking game; scroll down the comments section and take a shot every-time you see a comment saying how stupid he is without providing any counter points to his arguments.

[@SumitPalTube]

How stupid he is!!

[@TheBanjomandolin]

+Burkutace27 How about the fact that China's capital reserve is 3 and bit times more than America's national debt but it's what he doesn't say that demonstrates his obfuscation of reality. I can't attest to his intelligence but he seems to be pushing an agenda and he's argument doesn't hold water. He's full of shit

[@ant5743]

TheBanjomandolin Damn right. The guy is a dick. No other of putting it. Smart, i know pissheads smarter.

[@successkim7920]

@@TheBanjomandolin Why is America winning the trade war then at the status quo? Blatantly obvious that America has more cards to play at their disposal. Why isnt China utilizing their "three times more capital than America's debt" to hold a higher ground in the trade war? Seems like someone else is also full of shit.

[@stevenliu3744]

@@successkim7920 lol so many years passed your peoples heads are still in the sand...

[@angelosturino8407]

A must watch, informative with news worthy too .......

[@ozeeo]

for a minute I thought George Bush has got smart after his presidancy term

[@Withnail1969]

Here in 2019, China's economy is larger than the US on the World Bank's PPP index and has been for several years.

[@JRobbySh]

If the numbers are correct. Remember how the USSR cooked the books?

[@Withnail1969]

@@JRobbySh All i know is that just about everything i own is made in China. that wasn't the case with the former USSR.

[@malik479]

thats why china is building and improving infrastructure and economic relations with many third world countries around the world, their goal is to improve conditions around the world and bring up the living standards and at the same time build new markets so minimize dependence on western markets.

[@gabbyk1391]

Their goal is the last part. The prior part is only a requirement. China cares about China.

[@jamilalkhodari6165]

The higher u go the harder you fall, if you are not careful and misuse your strength.

[@ChrisPotgieter]

And there one is putting up his ✋ for the challenge 😂

[@4EverDubin]

8:08 he said condoms. I swear!

[@budbin]

+~ShiftR0ck~ bit of a Freudian slip :D

[@4EverDubin]

Aaron Bud Indeed ;D

[@albertcorreia9319]

Your absolutely right.

[@idksia8241]

Time slip

[@ivanthemisunderstood6940]

10:37 "Six hundred billion dollars isn't enough for 1.1 trillion people"??

[@benforrest8590]

Fact checking this in 2019. He said Japan will out grow China. GDP is $4.8 trillion and $12.2 trillion respectively. He said Turkey will be powerhouse of Europe. Turkey GDP is $0.8 trillion and Germany is $3.6 trillion. Conclusion: His prediction on these events was wildly inaccurate.

[@stephenpowstinger733]

This is pretty old but still about right.

[@marklampo8164]

That's classic economics; pounding a square peg into a round hole to fit a political agenda!

[@maxmullen6337]

This just proves, never try to predict the future.

[@jimjardine4705]

What about Australia? What is our density??

[@elusivem3367]

Wow! Incredible info..

[@blica1]

There is only one thing that determines a nation's economy..CENTRAL BANKS ! There are no such things as countries anymore, only the corporations who run them, and the central banks of those nations in essence, run and control the corporations..Wealthy investors then invest on the goods and resources produced in those nations based on their GDP , and this is what any economy relies on.. He makes some excellent points , but the bottom line is, the catalyst of ANY nation's economy is in the hands of a few select bankers and wealthy Wall St. investors..

[@huoyenyen]

This is an old video,in 2013 china's industry output is larger than usa.

[@JohnDoe-zy6tm]

True China dose have a larger industrial output currently 4:3.5 ratio with US, but the rate of profit return is still massively in the US favor at 20:1 ratio.China sells more products but with almost no profit.

[@mannymedina1132]

Which can be an advantage. Everyone buys from you and you just keep expanding and expanding. China has now reached a limit of how fast they can grow, but they have new plans. Invest in 3rd world countries to improve their infrastructure (rail roads, ports, airports) and then sell them products. This will make almost every 3rd world country become of ally of china and naturally hate the USA for never doing shit for them other than bombing them.

[@lenardmalcolm8800]

Richard Zhong I’m Australian and we have had it with China we are booting out Chinese and only letting them lease land now we do not like communism or commies

[@barahng]

Richard Zhong Probably not for long since the US isn't tolerating Chinese mercantilism anymore. USA already is back to fastest growing economy status. Chinese economic strategy regarding America required American complicity, and that is no longer present. See how much longer you can get away stealing trillions in intellectual property from the world, and dumping subsidized goods to bankrupt foreign firms. China was built on the backs of American consumers buying their shit, and we've had enough of watching our industry crumble.

[@dovstruzer3610]

@@lenardmalcolm8800 I THINK YOU DIDN'T NOTICE,BUT CHINA IS NOT A COMMUNIST AND NOT A SOCIALIST COUNTRY IT'S NOT ENOUGH TO CALL YOURSELF COMMUNIST OR SOCIALIST CHINA IS A STATE CAPITALIST ECONOMY WITH A ONLY ONE PARTY,BUT AGAIN THAT'S NOT A SOCIALIST ECONOMY A SOCIALIST ECONOMY OS A MORE DEMOCRATIC AND EQUALITARIAN ECONOMY IT'S LIKE THE EUROPEAN SOCIALIST PARTIES,THAT HAVE JUST THE NAME SOCIALIST,BUT THEY DONT HAVE ANY DIFFERENCE FROM THE MORE CONSERVATIVE PARTIES TO KNOW MORE ABOUT COMMIES OR COMMUNISM READ A BOOK ABOUT MARX OR TROTZKI THOSE ARE VERY USEFULL BOOKS AND THEY DONT BAIT

[@KarausTheReTeller]

True plots.

[@DISCODAN1]

LOL Taylor Worthington, I was just thinking that he was a cross between George Bush and Grandpa from the Munsters!!

[@sharpjwe]

The bigger you are The biggest the fall The biggest debt Nothing I envie

[@sharpjwe]

@i get it no you do not Trade deficit does create the debts You buy things you do not need With money you do not have

[@ljansick]

If nothing else, he's a great salesman....

[@ClassicStrategist]

explain to me why your points are facts...

[@1SuperObserver]

2009 SPEECH-

[@alexgeld7173]

George Friedman is smart: )

[@stellaadler1977]

Alex, an indoctrinated and propagandized neoliberal, is essentially a servant of Washington, not that you is aware of your role as “useful idiot.”

[@melissaamericanmade9831]

+duabimR ruhtrA: I couldn't agree with you more. Obviously, Alex is correct: George Friedman is very intelligent and highly educated whether you agree or disagree with him. He practices critical thinking which indoctrinated individuals seem incapable of doing. +Stella Adler: You have a lot of labels but offer no POV. Dr. Friedman is a student of History and stays current on many subjects. I am familiar with his ideas which are way larger than his personal politics; and liberals of any sort would most likely take issue with his views. How can you not see what happens to countries (e.g., West Germany, Japan, South Korea) that the US needs to succeed? Even I noticed that before ever hearing of Dr. Friedman.

[@alexgeld7173]

Melissa Evett Haters gonna hate so why do you even bother explaining to them :)

[@himurakenshin6053]

Melissa I think you are very very smart 👍👍👍👍😊

[@costasyiannourakos6963]

If the purpose of your comment is to add substance on to his already overgrown narcissistic public image, see no social value of it.!!

[@MrSmoovefan1231]

His prediction were all wrong, so much of a geopolitical expert

[@donaldtharider4688]

Have you seen whats going on with Turkey in the last few months. China Russian and the states doing big Business there it dont seem as hes wrong

[@PseudoProphet]

He's not wrong. Chinese collapse keep getting delayed because their government has absolute control. 😑😑 What you're saying is like calling US economy in very good condition...even though we know it's about to crash... Trump maybe able to delay it till after the elections.. if he's lucky.

[@MrSmoovefan1231]

Pseudo Prophet , please tell me the month and the year when China is bust or collapsed,. when the time comes, we’ll know who is right who is wrong . Can’t just say “keep delaying “

[@user-ur6je4xb7s]

@@MrSmoovefan1231 He's not a prophet. How can he tell the exact date?? I will just show you a statistics about China. Real estate price of USA at 2008 was 170 percent of their GDP. Real estate price of Japan before the lost decade was 200 percent of their GDP. 2019, the real estate price of China add up to 500 percent of their GDP. Now you know how serious Chinese economic bubble is? It's just a matter of time. Collapse of 170 and 200 percent led to global recession and protracted recession of 20 years respectively. Imagine consequence of the collapse of 500 percent of China's GDP.

[@MrSmoovefan1231]

大統領朴正熙 he claims he can predict next 100 years, that’s a joke. To call him “ right “ , he needs to provide the When, How, Why right. As for your real estate bubble statistic, appreciated, but real estate bubble in China doesn’t mean the whole country will collapse. China has very little foreign debt, and can keep printing money while the rest of the country keep on going. Only time will tell.

[@DidivsIvlianvs]

Japan lost money on Rockefeller Center because they had so much idle cash (our exported debt) that they had no realistic concept of the value of it.

[@mplithid]

The problem with the argument that China "can't innovate" because of some inherent cultural difference which affects their decisions as to how they structure their economy and education system is silly. In 2008, 60% of engineering doctorates given out at U.S. universities were given to foreign students. 30% of those were given to Chinese students studying here. The main reason why the Chinese haven't innovated for the past 30 years is not that their incapable, if you ever visit China you'll..

[@costya485]

He just makes up all sorts of random ideas so that in his mind the geopolitical challenges would disappear.

[@gokhansonmez6741]

16:47 and after :)

[@alfredthepatientxcvi]

18:57 ;)

[@darrenrenna]

Friedman's books are great--will be so interesting to see how things turn out.

[@dragonfly1929]

HE IS WRONG..HE HAS A WISHFUL THINKING .AMERICAN HEGEMONY ..WILL NOT BE THE SAME,IT WAS IN EVEN 25 YEARS,,HE AIMING TO KILL CHINA??BRINGING UP/TURKEY..JAPAN??HE LIES..DO YOU HAVE THE IDEA,THE TRILLIONS,GOING OUT OF THE USA/IN SAFE HAVENS..WHILE THE AMERICAN INFRASTRUCTURES ARE 60 YEARS OLD,FALLING APART,10 MILLION HOMELESS AMERICANS SLEEPING IN CARTONS,ON SIDEWALKS,DIFICATIN IN STREETS, DETROIT/SEATEL/FLINT/LOS ANGELES /SOUTH HOLYWOOD/SAN FRANCISCO..PEOPLE ARE DYING W/HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS FROM DRUG .OPIOID ADDICTION ,WHILE THE BIG PHARMA,GETS RICHER,BIG OIL,DESTROYED THE PLANET,THE 2008 EVICTIONS,SHOWED THE WORLD,THE AMERICAN PLUTOCRACY,THE WARCRIMS,THE WEPNES DEATH MERCHANTS/KEEP THE GDP/FROM FALLING ..YOUR PREDICTIONS..ARE FALSE..AND LOUGHBLE..TURKEY IS IN SELF DESTRUCTION MODE..THEY WILL BE BURIED IN SYRIA AND THE UKRAINE..

[@hugolindum7728]

The gdp of the USA isn’t as big as China + UK + Japan + Germany. But the important fact is the gdp of China is 12 compared to the USA 17. The USA will be the second largest economy by 2030.

[@donaldtharider4688]

This dude is a geological genius So Poland is the Country to be now. This Guy is spot on I dont know about Japan but we se today Turkey as every one main investment and with them switching to socialist government. This is big big news

[@dragonfly1929]

HE IS A CHARLATAN..ONE MUST BE FOOL TO TAKE HIM AS A SEROUS PROFESSOR..IF HE IS AN EXPERT GEOPOLITICIAN,THEN I AM MICKEY MOUSE.

[@hasankilic9825]

@@dragonfly1929 I can not see your profile photo clearly let me see this Mickey dude..

[@govindindurkar3100]

do all people named friedman dabble in economics.

[@EGH181]

Govind Indurkar and they are usually wrong

[@ibrahimabdullahi6080]

Things have not come about as predicted by George. The more we think we know, the more we realize that we don't know.

[@theknight4317]

Why do you think so? Oil prices are plummeting and Russians are in crisis, Chinese economic miracle came to an end, with growth rates falling from 14% in 2007 down to 6% in 2019 (which is still impressive, but it is a decreasing trend.), Turkey now negotiates with such countries as Russia, The U.S and Germany, topics such as Syria and Libya and in 2015, the "3 Seas Initiative" was signed in Eastern Europe, which is a cooperation agreement between the Eastern European countries and is led by Poland.

[@Withnail1969]

@@theknight4317 The Russians aren't in crisis any more than we are. China's growth rate slowing was expected and actually desired, 6% a year is plenty and more than any other developed economy. Everything is made in China, increasingly by Chinese brands such as Huawei and Xiaomi. China is the world leader in cutting edge tech such as 5g and has more high speed rail than the rest of the world put together. But if you want to believe Friedman's sci fi fantasies, I won't stop you.

[@theknight4317]

@@Withnail1969 Wat? Oil prices are 20-30 $, Russian government says that 40 $ is enough for them. The demographics became a major problem as Vladimir Putin himself said in the national address. They spent 400 $ billion on the military in 2016-2020. They were in recession in 2014-2017 and since 2017 they are in stagnation, given current oil prices drop, they will again enter a recession. I'll remind you that the Soviet Union collapsed cause of low oil prices, high military spending and declining population and that the oil price was 30$ in 1986 (adjusted by inflation), 5 years before USSR's official collapse. 6% is still pretty good, but 6% was the Japanese growth rate in 1984, 6 years before they entered a 3-decades crisis.

[@Withnail1969]

@@theknight4317 Russia can now handle low oil prices, they've said they don't want to cut production. not sure where you get your "information" but they haven't been in "stagnation" since 2017, growth rates there have been similar to ours in the UK. Russian finances are in pretty good shape compared to ours. the demographics stuff is out of date too, as far as i recall the Russian population is growing again. ultimately Russia has vast land and mineral resources, not to mention fresh water; the fundamentals are far better than most countries.

[@theknight4317]

@@Withnail1969 Ok. I assume you don't know what does "stagnation" mean in economics. Basically, it is when the economy grows at a very slow rate, such as the Russian growth rate in 2018 - %0.5. Vladimir Putin said that Russian population is not growing, he said it in 2019 national address. Quote: "While we have to keep our military on its toes, we have to address the demographic problems.". Russia has vast land but no people, that is why it is poor - The labour is not enough to use all of the nation's land (Read Adam Smith*). Russian problem is its dependency upon the Oil - at the time when Russians built their economy, prices were around 90$, in 2007 price per barrel was 157$ in 2020 it is 20-30$ per barrel. Watch this video - kzbin.info/www/bejne/iavZZ2ysl5t4eas

[@acl1976]

so how come china and japan own most of the us national debt of which the interest is higher than it's gdp

[@jaddy540]

Both will regret it when the Great Default comes. First on Interest, later on the principal.

[@abu-suliman1447]

ماذا يقول الآن؟؟ لقد تغير العالم ولم تجري الرياح كما تشتهي السفن

[@hectortellez7776]

Noble alliances, 🇺🇸 🇵🇱❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️

[@avinashsadamate6933]

Wonderful and enriching talk

[@imoneixusa9742]

16:50

[@jdlc903]

i found his points about misallocation of capital very interesting.market allocation of capital to high rate of return and profitability is important.

[@timtim5933]

Old facts. Things have changed and the future is likely to be different in favour of emerging economies and Asia.

[@cooldudecs]

Where? China? Bad demographics … Russia ? 🤣

[@paulsdancing5429]

This is obsolete. Please do not pop up on my screen.

[@susanlegeza7562]

Cripto? When was this written?

[@JavierBonillaC]

Robert Sollow won the Nobel Prize by arguing that all countries tend to one high income; once that happens China and India are going to be huge!!!

[@alfredbenedek3398]

China, India & Russia will decline to be, very minor. They will become minoritiys! In the long shot of 50 - 65 years from now!

[@atabeytozkoparan8603]

2o23 ..2071..

[@bluewatersailor8282]

Nice projection, however all the Earths systems are breaking down NOW, we have less than ten years and that's that.

[@nsdapbky]

17.07 - 17.14 :D

[@CaptainMacTavishSoap]

The main reason he does is because no Southern Hemisphere country has direct access to both the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans or has close proximity to the Eurasian land mass (Russia).

[@SeattlePioneer]

> Well, there is South Africa, occupying a very strategic position on both the Atlantic and indian Oceans. A key location in the world for 500 years now.

[@matthewhall1597]

He got Turkey right and wrong. Russia did come back, but Turkey is clearly of growing importance in the power vacuum of the middle east.

[@ganny9090]

Russia came back? their GDP has halved in the last 3 years.

[@kijamy8642]

russian nominal GDP is irelevant .. purchasing power parity is all that motter for a country like russia, and now that oil prices are stabilized so will they their economy

[@ganny9090]

You sure? Why?

[@emreorhan827]

catchfish205 “they lost it all” 😂 umm, only in your dreams maybe? Keep underrating all developing countries like you did to China, nobody gives a damn and it actually helps them 👍👍

[@mplithid]

However, much as the past 30 years of no indication of future growth, the past 30 years do not guarantee that the Chinese cannot innovate more in the future (think the 2020s and 2030s, it's a while off). Additionally, geopolitical influence is not built on your ability to innovate, it has to due with your economic influence (the U.S.'s main tool of economic influence is the huge size of its market which it can open or close to countries and its financial system). All that requires innovation..

[@Polovene]

isn't it interesting that his whole analysis (the whole book) doesn't consider the roles of the richest social circles, which are -not coincidentally like the largest corporations- international and decide most of what happen in the world?? Not a single family is mentioned. Nor corporations , say like the big oil corporations I can't tell if it's for marketing (sell a simple book) or he's just plainly avoiding the subject.

[@tulemancito]

100 % correct,the usa will be the must powerfull country in the world,in the next 10 years,but all can change if the us reduce it's military power,the need to reactived the economy and apply more protectionism.

[@jaddy540]

We are so powerful,we can't secure the Southern border!

[@kaandede4351]

Ottoman Empire!! So proud to be a Turk.

[@jaroslawratajkowski3901]

1683!!!! be proud of that ...

[@niceandcurly]

Kaan Dede proud of the Armenian genocide too?

[@fatihsultanmehmet7204]

Ermeniler hala ağlıyorlar soykırım zırvalarıyla -erkek olun lan

[@08halit]

newer happened...i bet ...do a research for your self and you will se..

[@ZZ-oc4lh]

good luck competing with iran. as an american it will be interesting to watch

[@ristrettofacts]

Debt based economics ... Surely an American knows everything about that ;)

[@alfredbenedek3398]

I ahte to admit it, but yes, it is so. The U.S. is in a huge debt. Pretty soon, they can't keep up, with themself, much less, with any other competative world power?!!

[@wlhgmk]

All this would suggest continued exponential growth in the world economy, a formula for a sudden crash.

[@pardeeptandon6730]

The fact is that China has pulled out of extreme poverty 600 million people in in last 20 years. In recent years its dependence on exports is reducing every year and its internal consumption is going up. Today in PPP terms China has a bigger economy than USA has and it will do so in $ terms too in next 5 years.

[@ACraftsToday]

That snob smile. Oh god.

[@ConstructiveMinds100]

Quite intricate propaganda.

[@Aufenthalt]

He did not consider the fact that major part of the economic power of Us is based on debt and petrol dollar. If petrol dollar is dumped the us have to scrap at least half of its military to keep up the economy. And don't forget that education is all time low now there. R&D is made mainly from immigrated researchers.

[@ahmadashraf2728]

china has launched petro yuan and america game is over😂😂😂😂😂

[@jonesani]

In which sector does the US have a successful economy, beside the military industrial complex? Made in USA? Never read this on any product.

[@whitephoenixofthecrown2099]

the us economy is only 23 % trade , while china and russia are way above 50% trade which american ships control !!!

[@phonkgermania4037]

🇹🇷🇹🇷🇹🇷🇹🇷

[@tjm34]

Fenerbahçe:)

[@americanpatriot5671]

Every prediction George Friedman made is WRONG. LOL.

[@mcuch4253]

HAHAHA and now the world wants out of the Petro Dollar.... Haha! China suppressed their GDP! and has the market on rare earth and manufacture. Venezuela and Brazil told Big oil to F off and Russian is poised to rebuild nations under the gold standard! Way to go US, and debt... the only way he could have been more wrong is by saying Greece would be a military superpower of the Mediterranean

[@nedmoore3697]

M Cuch Yes sure. The world wants rubles? Yuan? Euro? Nope nope and nope. Japan is shrinking. There isn’t enough gold in the world, and cryptocurrencies are still not trustworthy and far from ubiquitous. The US $ remains king.

[@mcuch4253]

Only if the world wants debt based dollar- we don’t even own anything.... maybe cartels and underworld economies... dollar lost its crown because of greed and false value... that’s why the US will wage our greatest investment our war machine, virus, and weather war... maybe because we “own the oceans”... and what’s left? I think japan will be an isolationist and our European allies ha! Their economies are already falling and their people are in protest... I think Eurasia and Russian will rebuild their transcontinental transit systems and hold fast... a benefit of communism- but only if they survive the war we have been campaigning already- virus and weather war fare ... maybe then what ever is left makes dollar king again- Insanity - especially after this video just 6 years

[@americanpatriot5671]

@@nedmoore3697 --- over time the Chinese will change the dollar system. Ultimately China will have an economy much larger than America and they will be able to force countries to trade in their currency. Right now they don't want to change the current system too rapidly because they don't want to open their financial system too quickly. The dollar has until 2030 and then its reign will be over. The Chinese are going to change the world order like it or not and Trump's tariffs and tech ban can't stop it.

[@nedmoore3697]

M Cuch A “benefit of communism”? There are none.

[@ClarksonsinUSA]

Patterns and economic stats are revealing,but these facts may not take you to the future you hope for...

[@sametkaragandere7977]

17:10 we see whos laughing now 💪

[@mplithid]

Sorry, i came back on to revise what i previously said, i just read his book forecasting the next 100 years - it took me three hours. it was unfootnoted, and used alot of selective, overly-generalized historical examples. Simply, put, when he generalized his justifications the way he did, i couldn't argue with him - but, that doesn't mean he's right. His book was thought provoking, but full of glaring holes. I'm much less impressed by him now.

[@aon10003]

If US feels this way about Europé, end your allianses, it will be over in a week.

[@myfujaccmyfujacc5512]

+aon10003 you see this the problem that some countries EU act as if it would want to get rid off USA but if USA would decide to go EU would beg them to come back.

[@aon10003]

You have no idea of Europes history.

[@myfujaccmyfujacc5512]

aon10003 Well I actually DO and very well too.

[@complication_nation1153]

Myfujacc Myfujacc why you think we gonne bag ?? Explaine ..

[@Tim145Tim145]

I think this video is about ten years old. By today Chinese industry GDP is bigger than U.S.A and Japan combined. The Chinese GDP is about 65% of USA, and more that double than Japan. On PPP term China already suppress USA.

[@shamimalam361]

Mr. Friedman, good to see what you think, however, usa's economy is equal to the next 4 economies and the reason for that is not economical but mathematical. It is simple arithmetic. If the world gets rid of trading in dollars and bring down the price of dollar, then you and your country men will know that it won't even remain in top 20 economies. Think about it.

[@life.99.]

Koi apne warga aaya

[@trollmcclure2659]

Yes and even without getting rid of the dollar, a decade later the US economy (nominal, calculated in dollars taking into account the exchange rate) is now equal to the next 2 economies (China representing 80%) and by GDP in PPP (taking into account the difference of cost of life), China already surpassed US in 2014.

[@Todiros]

Was it not the US that owe an amount of money, that I can't even pronounce to China?

[@bobsaget7315]

Tony Borisov i belive us debt to china is a little over 1 trillion. Thats only 1/4 of the us annual budget. Doesnt seem like a problem to me. Most american debt is held by American citizens through bonds and loans. The american debt is way too overyhyped as something that will cripple us when it really isnt a problem

[@seriousdoubt]

The best job for this man is vacuum cleaners sales

[@jamilalkhodari6165]

All economies are cyclic, that’s why we invest somewhere else when our locality is in the down cycle. U can analyze all ur life but really it is that simple, without the fancy financial/economic/micro and macro gibrish.

[@MrSOPHIST9]

At the end of the video the orator mentions Poland and how they will succeed because of the new found relationship between Germany and Russia. I can see Poland being used by the U.S. to buffer the area, but I don't see the real effect it would have in the region. It's like having 2 bullies living next door to you and having your protector living in the the town. The orator explains his views with extreme bias!!! Sounds smart, but lacks credibility for the same reason!