Asian Paints Vs Birla : The FIGHT is here : CLASH OF COLOURS

The PAINTS-WAR is here. A new entrant Birla Opus wants to take share from Asian Paints, Berger, Nerolac and disturb the peaceful industry structure. A follow up video with an update on the launch of Birla Opus
Consolidation and cooperation in industry structure leads to improvement in pricing power and returns on capital. This leads to Good Companies becoming GREAT companies; both earnings and multiples go up and a lot of money is made...
But what happens when this reverses, when competition increases with the entry of a formidable player. What happens when GREAT becomes GOOD? this video analyses this effect in the Indian paints industry and how the industry will change over the next few years. This is part 2 of the video with another analysis coming in the next video...
Grasim is a formidable competitor which will disrupt the Indian Paints' peaceful existence over the next 5 years. The industry will be in turmoil before a new industry structure emerges.
Hi friends, I am Ajay Sharma. I have been an active investor and a serial entrepreneur living in Singapore. I am an alum of IIT (BHU) Varanasi and IIM Ahmedabad. I have worked in some of the leading global corporates and am passionate about startups.
To know more about me, watch - • Who am I? #AjayFY
To connect with me, follow me on my socials -
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#paints #sensex #indiagrowth

[@doncorleone3901]

People think most buyers of paints are regular home owners. But thats wrong. Most buyers of paints are builders - they don't care if quality of AP is higher than Birla, they just care about the cost

[@SHALEENDAVE]

No most builders provide white putty. Colour is on customer

[@doncorleone3901]

@SHALEENDAVE All paint makers make Putty too. Plus there is external paint

[@tradehut2782]

That's a good point.

[@pradeepks6992]

But Asian paints can fulfill large demands but small suppliers fails

[@mytradexpertlove]

You are into fund management business that's fine . But if you would have selected the profession of teaching that would have also make you much more popular specially in the field of finance . Your convincing capability and clarity about the topic which you are discuss always is really remarkable. I eagerly wait for you videos. All videos have deep insights . Keep it up . I will request you to publish much frequent videos for us who loves to watch you .

[@sunny9091]

Excellent analysis, Sir. Additionally, it's worth noting that Asian Paints is expanding into the home decor market, which is significantly larger and more fragmented than the paint industry, with no major organized players currently dominating it. If Asian Paints can capture a substantial share in this sector, it could potentially lead to significant growth in their EPS and P/E ratios. I would appreciate your thoughts on this development.

[@rohanch07]

It will take 10-12 years to build that segment to be equivalent to their current paint business. Additionally brand building in new segment will take more money and resources from current business. The PE will go down.

[@vikramadityagautam6950]

Top notch yet again. However, sir would you like to pay any thought to Asian's demand prediction capabilities, can Birla's get to Asian's forecasting capabilities?

[@chandrikahc9488]

Really good analysis , enlightening people ❤ Beautifully explained in a very simple way, your thoughts process analysis and educating people really needs lot of appreciation, we like your videos

[@mohammadanisains9432]

Sir Birla ji main woh ability aur effort hai jo asian paints ke management ki brabri kar lenge Hum ne Voda fon idia mein dekh liya turn around nahi kar pa rahe hain , dhaoutfull hai, shukriya

[@jugendrasingh5806]

kamal ki jankari mili sir . aapse sadar anurodh hai or naye sectors par bhi videos milenge jiska hum sabko besabri se intzaar hai

[@abhishekmalhotra9415]

Superb @ajayg2g .... Ajay Sir! This is so much relatable to "Air conditioner Industry" as well... Outside competition will going to kill Voltas, Bluestar as well....

[@dhirendrasingh7085]

I appreciate your views and ur videos. But can you also start speaking about companies or industries which according to you are in the good to gr8 phase.

[@dhirendrasingh7085]

Btw Asian paints rt now is a pretty decent buy for a 20% return. Even if it takes a year, doesn’t really hurt. That’s what everyone is chasing in mutual funds anyways.

[@z2zugzwang]

​@@dhirendrasingh7085But are there reasons for a 20% return?

[@abhijitdebnath9811]

Good one. I'm thinking about why Birla entered the paint industry and making this industry a red ocean. Can't they find any other low-competitive industry?

[@z2zugzwang]

Asian paints entered the putty market that was dominated by Birla and aggressively expanded. These are adjacencies and hence companies play the game of who blinks first. Game theory at play. Mazaa aayega.

[@replytarun]

Very good analysis, would like to have conversation with you. Prof Tarun Dhingra

[@G2GAjaySharma]

Prof Dhingra, please email at [e-mail]

[@arnabmondal5926]

Many many thank you sir. Please more video give on other industries.

[@user-wg1sw2cm4r]

Brilliant analysis as always. One assumption you made is no drop in crude prices. If Crude prices fall, profits could improve.

[@tradehut2782]

If quality of the paint is of prime importance then Dulux would dominate home painting, right? Afaik its almost impossible to compete with Asian Paints at a distribution level.

[@InvestorInsaan]

Very nicely explained Krishna ❤❤❤❤ We are Arjuns of investment

[@jayantvora806]

Would like to meet you when you are in kolkatta. Pls inform if possible.

[@neeraj3179]

Fabulous video, Thanks a lot. Would love to know your thoughts on a scenario where costs increase for a sustained period. Specifically, how would Grasim Industries, which has a much higher debt level compared to Asian Paints, manage in such a situation?

[@debojit9639]

Wow..thanks for the scuttlebutt information

[@ankurmittal19]

Sir birla ko kya mileage fhir

[@sayandebghosh2681]

What is scuttlebutt ?

[@sureshkhandelwal3497]

Great Sir. I belong from Jaipur and live in Vaishali Nagar. ❤

[@samwise8333]

Thank you sir for sharing ur insightful knowledge and doing such priceless analysis

[@SamarthRajesh-iu9kn]

Very beautiful and in depth analysis, pls make analysis video for HDFC bank and IDFC first bank too

[@mtpatel90skid]

Great initiative (mangotown) sir. You are among the few successful people who really want to change the world for better.

[@vikskukreja]

It’s such an amazing session, absolute Masterclass. Returns on investing time on your videos is huge. Thanks a lot for sharing class knowledge 🙏🏼

[@ravilakhotia575]

Sir, what are your thoughts on paint companies hiking their prices?

[@raghudesh706]

Awesome episode 💗💗💗 My question is, if both biggies are looking & preparing for Export Market too (Blue Ocean Strategy)

[@1979arijitpaul]

Such a nice analysis... But you are not mentioned about quality, in continuation of this Tug of war should quality be compromised?

[@umeshshah9643]

Very good information. Can you make similar kind videos for telecom industry?

[@anishkumarsahoo7588]

I really wanna know in the paint industry which company has the best quality of paint??

[@hemantunadkat8684]

You have great analysis and correct in all what you have said; except that photos of QR codes can be taken by employees and sent over WhatsApp and those photos can be scanned to redeem the contractor benefits. This could probably be a loophole. I want to add a few more variables; raw material costs over the next 3 years, M&A, geopolitics, underestimating the volume growth of the sector. 1. Raw Material: I expect the cost of the main raw material to go down over the next 3 years because of shift to EVs and renewables; that may compensate for the margin that is impacted due to higher ad spends and discounts. 2. M&A: Can we see something similar to the Telecom sector over the next 10 years in the paint sector where the smaller companies will either die or be merged into 2-3 big players? 3. Geopolitics: This can impact in unimaginable ways which may be difficult to assess at this time. 4. Volume growth estimation: What if the volume growth of the sector beats expectations by a huge margin on upside because of Government policies regarding home for all? Could this be the reason why Birla entered the sector in the first place?

[@G2GAjaySharma]

Hemant, very interesting questions. 1) RM cost. I can't predict that, but whatever happens to RM cost, IT IMPACTS ALL PLAYERS. What will matter is whether they want to pass it on or not? Till a new Marketshare STRUCTURE is established, you will see price wars and margin compression. This is about MARKETSHARES 2) M&A : this happens only when the industry goes through a very tough phase of POOR CASH FLOWS for a long period of time. That is a DIRE state of affairs. The industry is very profitable and high ROCE today. If we are talking about consolidation forced by PAIN, then there is a lot of trouble coming our way. That is not my base case today. 3) Geopolitics : No idea 4) Volume Growth : It has been 10-12% last many years. Possible that it goes up, that will be a positive surprise :-)

[@Hans-dw5yo]

One thing you are missing, after knowing all this...Both companies are looking for business thro benifitting the sellers n intermediateries like contractors etc.....now someone should focus on customer the final buyer....i will look for my benifit n give my paint to the painter n not what he wants to apply....Customer, the final payer first

[@seshafarmspalmarosa1267]

Thank you Ajay sir, I gone through your website of mangotown, my humble request is to add ayurveda balaroga chikitsa department... It is much underated treatment but it makes big difference in child... My prayers for your initiatives... God bless you.....

[@G2GAjaySharma]

Thank you for your wishes. can you please email me at [e-mail]

[@kaushikchauhan3397]

Loved it, as always. Keep up the G2G work Ajay ji. :)

[@deepakpatel4186]

Ajaybhai Superb...Please in similar study of Bajaj Finance VS Jio Financial ...Humble Request

[@drhiraniclinic]

one more time... one of the best video..Grt going ajay sir

[@atharvadhokte6272]

Hello Sir, I am Atharva from IIM Kashipur. I searched for HHI index that you mentioned but didnt found any website which provided it directly. Do we have to individually calculate it as per the formula or is there anything I am missing. Thanks in advance for the reply

[@G2GAjaySharma]

You have to calculate on your own. Sum of square of marketshares

[@atharvadhokte6272]

@@G2GAjaySharma Sure sir, Thank you

[@ankurmittal19]

Pvt sectors banks analysis

[@damdaman-jk8bl]

Such a wonderdul analysis sir. Learnt a lot from this vedio. Thank you

[@Lifeisgudhh]

Bhai you're awesome quite drunk but efforts you put in the video are recommending!!! Lot's of love from Maharashtra! ❤❤❤ I've been introduced to you by Vivek!

[@shrikant4540]

Beta wo Bhai nahi sir hai pahle unka academic aur work experience dekho phir comment likho.

[@happyguy650]

तुत्छ मानव, ये 'sir' शब्द का प्रयोग बंद करो। ये अंग्रेज़ो का टाइटल है। *श्रीमान* बोलो और फिर कमेंट लिखो।

[@ShrenikBhura]

What about the potential from international market focus of Asian paints? Is that insignificant?

[@srir6844]

Birla can't discount for long as shareholders will want to see great Roce. Further, the capex impact on the balance sheet of Birla is large. Asian is also doing capex for new plants, but many of their factories are already set up so better balance sheet. Asian is bound to remain positive cash flow as there is strong internal cash generation. Does Birla know how to innovate in this sector? What type of people culture does it have versus Asian for sustainable momentum in execution and continuous improvements. Lovely analysis, but somewhat pessimistic towards Asian Paints , but grabs the attention as pessimism can have a seductive appeal. 😊

[@productheroe2006]

Thank You Sir for the detailed analysis. Lot of new things learnt today.

[@omprakashpandey3904]

Again Great insight sir I learned lots of things from your business analysis thank you very much sir❤❤🙏🙏🙏🙏

[@vikramadityagautam6950]

Sir, camera angle is not helping. If you could give some thought on it

[@tapanhati9158]

Very good information, God bless you uh🌷🌹💐

[@venkag]

As your channel name suggests, you are becoming Good --> Gr8

[@udaygaikwad5282]

How much period Birla will take to get decent ROCE ?

[@pavantadas30]

Sir , how do you source data like share of voice , dealer network etc

[@mngupta2711]

Again very insightful and great analysis ❤

[@ratiramsharma8713]

Very nice Knowledge for common man understanding

[@neerajgupta79]

Really good analysis. Thanks!!

[@kirannayak2160]

Nestle pe v banaiye

[@user-sq1qf3ko5n]

Best video sirji👌

[@sweetkarbhari7260]

Great learning..Thanks a lot sir

[@rishabhpatel1767]

ajay bhai you are amazing

[@Paint1Lovers]

Beautifully explained sir .... Thank u

[@Dhron_Unnithan]

Superb Analysis 👌🏾🤩🔥

[@debabratadey7696]

Very interesting analysis sir......

[@subhojeetchanda2776]

Birla opus is the newly excellent paint producer than asian paints now in the market.

[@user-fh1uz2kr8x]

How can we start paint manufacturing

[@kishorepanjabi5202]

Thanks for enlighten us ❤

[@jitenderbhatia1857]

Mind-blowing Analysis.

[@stockmarket4371]

Sir muje invest karna he kis me karu

[@basavarajmayi9667]

Super sir, thank you 🙏 ur my IIM.❤️

[@axaymalaviya1384]

Ajay bhai please share PPT

[@sumeetjain8445]

Hello Ajay sir .............great analysis.......... but not useful for investing ....bez AP 3 year return is 0 and next 3 years will be 0. sub ko pata hai ...grasim ko kya hoga......nobody knows

[@mayankraghuwanshi5312]

Thanks for sharing amazing insights

[@abhijitbasak6271]

Sir pidilite industries pe video banaya sir

[@investment413]

sir plz bajajfinace Ki analysis krodo next year k liye

[@jitenderbhatia1857]

Excellant Analysis

[@aftabchoudhary6103]

Berger, Nerolac be like : Khaya Piya khuch nhi Glass toda 12 Aana.😂😂😂

[@nileshkumar12388]

Sir, Tata pigments paint already in market

[@abdul-eq5ki]

birla pInts kerala markeing no ading compant 1 nodrying 2repainting noading beakround coplant

[@sarathkumar251]

Superb analysis.

[@puneetgu]

Sir i am a parent of special kid please open centre in east delhi or noida

[@sagimayank]

Birlas know about Indians a lot. Fool proof formula.

[@subhajithansda2523]

Thank you Sir...

[@satyen2122]

In 3 yrs it will like HUL.growth low but pe high.

[@jitenderbhatia1857]

Invite more merger or closure of few small companies

[@irfanbarmare6975]

What about the data ? What it takes years for asian paints cannot be easily done by birla.

[@AkashKumar-ip7br]

Pranam guruji ❤ like you very much

[@sandeepkumar-mk5ht]

Basant ji to kahte hai asian paint gira hai kyuki india me development nahi ho raha hai ,

[@islamajadul]

Berger Painter ko bahut pehle se de raha.... Isiliye mere area main kuch painter ye v kehete Berger ke alwa paint nahi karunga.

[@bsrikanth1261]

SIR, I AM FROM HYDERABAD. MY BOTH CHILDREN ARE AUTISTIC. I WANT TO OPEN CENTRE. HOW TO CONTACT YOU SIR

[@G2GAjaySharma]

Please email at [e-mail]

[@deveshmaheshwari6598]

very nice vdo

[@tushargaur8528]

Thanks sir ji 😊❤

[@goldenpaints2024]

Thanks for 66 subs

[@akshatlalka6696]

VI got disruption from jio Now birla doing the same to paints.

[@rajanpatadiya5428]

Beauty of Capitalism which will never be seen in socialism

[@ashadda]

Good sir ❤

[@pueriners714]

Don't include Asian Paints in paints, it will move to become another company wchich does home decor, it is on its path from zero to good to great in that regard

[@Gbhk5684]

Sir asian paint choro abhi kouncha stock me paisa lagaye

[@mrsaurabhkumar3771]

Nifty index me dal do 😂😂

[@himanshubohra5038]

Telecom industry

[@kandanuruvsrgopi5199]

wow

[@market_learner27]

ismain duba baanane wale paisa kumayengee yaa nahi?? or they will do backward integration

[@z2zugzwang]

Sahi soche

[@3ree238]

Sir birla ji ko semiconductor and ai industry me paisa lagana cahiye trillion dollars industry he aur ye billion dollars he.iss industry me ghus ke vo apne paise jala rahe he, vaise bhi unke paise he unki marji😅issi wajha se india piche rahata he aur piche rahe ga,log future industry me invest kerte he aur ye dying industry me invest ker rahe he

[@mrsaurabhkumar3771]

Paint dying business nahi hai , paints ka use tumare pensil se lekar bade bade bridge tak hote hai , semiconductor ye sab acha hai but don't ignore paints industry, Birla group Carbon black, Ultratech cement and Branded Apearal tak ka Empire khada kar rakha hai

[@3ree238]

@mrsaurabhkumar3771 stock market is all about growth in revenue then only stocks will perform and I dont think virtual world me paints use hota he,How much pains are affecting you when you use Internet or Instagram or youtube, Future me invest kara jata he past me nahi

[@soulisinsearchofpeace3423]

❤❤❤❤❤

[@manishbajpai5060]

❤❤

[@BALLU1977]

👋👋👌

[@islamajadul]

Ap ko batane kuch hi din bad bech Diya tha AP ko

[@jitenderbhatia1857]

Saam daam dhand bhed chalu ho gaya hai.