Alfonso "Alf" Peccatiello on Dr. Yield Curve, Neighbor Tracking Error & The Emerging Markets Decade

Subscribe to The Meb Faber Show podcast on your favorite platform so you never miss an episode! pod.link/1128955736
Today’s guest today is Alfonso Peccatiello but you may know him as Alf! He’s the Founder & CEO of The Macro Compass, which provides financial education, macro insights and actionable investment ideas.
In today’s episode, Alf gives a masterclass on the bond market. He talks about Dr. Yield Curve and how yield curve inversions are related to recessions. He also talks about where he sees opportunity in the global equity markets, specifically emerging markets.
As we wind down, Alf shares some hot takes that most of his peers would disagree with, and you don’t want to miss what he says.
To see links or read the transcript of the episode, visit us at:
mebfaber.com/2023/12/13/alfon...
-----
This episode is sponsored by AcreTrader. AcreTrader is an investment platform that makes it simple to own shares of farmland and earn passive income, and you can start investing in just minutes online. If you're interested in a deeper understanding, and for more information on how to become a farmland investor through their platform, please visit www.acretrader.com/meb.
-----
Follow Meb:
Twitter: / mebfaber
LinkedIn: / mebanefaber
Website: mebfaber.com/
To learn more about our products and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list: theideafarm.us1.list-manage.c...
Listen and subscribe on the platform of your choice:
Apple: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast...
Spotify: open.spotify.com/show/6gEEIpE...
Google: podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0...
Follow The Idea Farm:
Subscribe (FREE!): www.theideafarm.com
Twitter: / theideafarm
LinkedIn: / theideafarm-co
Tik Tok: / mebfabershow
Instagram: / reels

[@edreeves121]

Excellent information here.

[@ryantinney]

Wonderful guest and discussion.

[@espawel]

Best wishes from Poland :)

[@HoneyBeeAlgo]

Alf is my macro buddy

[@russellkanning]

That was awesome. The only thing I disagree with Alf is that CPI will go down to 2% next year. Now ... just need a Carry Trade in 8 categories :)

[@user-bv4px3rt8k]

Surfs up!

[@__Dave__]

While QE might not directly create consumer price inflation, the overall theft from savers is still achieved by artificially boosting asset prices, assets that are now less affordable by those who still work for a living and save their money in anticipation of future asset purchases. The impact on the effective purchasing power of the currency is the same whether it’s QE or stimulus checks. This has happened everywhere QE has been tried.

[@HectorYague]

100% agreed. I feel that Alf gets lost in the semantics: while what he says is technically true, the reality is that QE lowers long term rates, inflates homes and financial assets, and encourages the investors' animal spirits pushing them up the risk curve. And, most importantly, the low rates excuses governaments to rely on as much deficit spending and fiscal support as they can, and that is indeed inflationary.

[@davidgardner4787]

Absolutelt love Alf. His strategy just sounds like classic "diworsification" though. Been down that road way too many times and either lost my butt cuz nearly everything correlates together in a crash or lost massively due to underperformance to the S&P 500 . Just buy great companies at good valuations or buy the S&P 500 when its below trend and you'll do much better over the long run. You just have to have patience which no seems to have any more.

[@zacharylockhart4550]

👌

[@ggttuuxx]

Wait! When CNBC said yields were going to 13%, you actually believe them?!? CNBC?

[@aleaiactaest8354]

But doesnt QE cause asset inflation?

[@Xmj202]

😂 this is the guy making wrong recession calls all year. Can’t believe people pay for the services of these broken clocks ⏰

[@bhaskar1303]

I don't know about FED but Alf has no credibility. He has been crying hoarse for doom and recession for last two years. His worst call was ' Soft landing my ass' and saying last June to go long, long duration bonds and short equity. People who believed his 'Macro' nonsense and went long TLT and short SPY must have lost their shirt and more. There is a lot of difference between selling courses or managing other people's money and actually putting your own money into your ideas.

[@HectorYague]

It is true that he was on the doom and gloom camp. Seems like he has changed his views. However, understand that he is a research analyst, not a money manager: his job is not to make market calls, but to explain how the different macro factos tie together so you can make your own calls based on your own interpretations.

[@bhaskar1303]

@@HectorYague you are right his job his not to make market calls. But he was making market calls all along and in his twitter bio he claims, he was actually managing money ( some billions of dollars). I think his past employer got lucky.