Updated Forecast for the 2024 Housing Market

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Featuring Mike Simonsen, President of Altos Research
A true data geek, Mike founded Altos Research in 2006 to bring data and insight on the U.S. housing market to those who need it most. Altos provides national and local real estate data to financial institutions, real estate professionals, and investors across the country, and the company is now part of HW Media, publisher of HousingWire and RealTrends. Mike uses Altos data to identify trends in the real estate market well before the headlines, and his work has been featured in the New York Times, The Atlantic, Fortune, Forbes and other publications.
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[@threemonkeys5441]

I have to say, I agree with your interpretation of the data available. However the macro picture is being completely ignored. If there is a recession and high unemployment, inventory will increase and demand will decrease

[@threemonkeys5441]

The only thing that will bring interest rates back down in the 5s is major economic stress and unemployment. If the rates go down this much, there will be significantly fewer qualified buyers. Buyers are already strapped with sky high delinquency in all credit areas and record low savings rates

[@House_hacker_619]

@@threemonkeys5441In the 80’s market. inflation rate was 8%, unemployment at 10.5% and interest rates at 20%. It didn’t crash the market instead some market had seen double in prices. What’s happening right now is not even as bad compared to the 80’s stagflation. Real estate is supply and demand. You need to stop listening to crashbros. Travis is a good guy but he’s been wrong for almost 3 years now.

[@aahashm86i]

Maybe. If there is a recession, they will cut rates and that will bring a lot of investors back i to the market. There is still a ton of excess liquidity looking for a home. This could potentially fill a good portion of demand. This would further change the real estate ownership dynamics in the us

[@fredi9204]

@@threemonkeys5441 Mortgage delinquency rate is under 4%, close to record low levels. Interest rates can go lower if inflation subsides without significant downturn. Mortage availability has already been severely restricted since the financial crisis; only those with high credit scores qualify.

[@Sonofawildanimal]

REAL ESTATE PRICES NEVER GO DOWN! DEFLATION DOES NOT EXIST! BUY! BUY! BUY! NOW IS THE BEST TIME! BEFORE IT IS TO LATE! 🇺🇸

[@thesoccertrotter1]

5:00 is all you need to know, the 2024 inventory line is doing the exact opposite of 2020. By 2025 we will be back at normal levels like 2019

[@ronno1202]

2019 inventory with 1970 levels of demand lol

[@JulianBurke]

@@ronno1202 this hurt

[@Tonehawkdawg]

When there is less than 3 months supply in your area, prices always go up. There is less than 3 months supply all over the USA. Prices are going up most everywhere this summer.

[@nataliedigiovanni4863]

Prices are going down. What planet are you on?

[@nonexistent5030]

Always the market is "trying" lol gonna have to try harder 😅

[@Zero_Zero_Zero_Zero]

Gratitude for sharing your expertise and analysis.

[@DsonicJ5672]

First. Not a realtor but love your content. Any chance under the median inventory in my area, Redondo beach, bumps up?

[@ws1825]

Redondo beach is in high demand. Good schools, good jobs and lots of buyers with cash. Supply will easily be absorbed. Bidding wars with high rates present justifies this

[@piRatCaptain]

This guy is such a panderer to realtors. He placates them like sheep. Real estate markets don't crash in a few months they crash over multiple years. Markets will be going down for 2 years before he finally realizes it or tells his minions. Why buy a house now when it will be 30% cheaper next year and50% cheaper the year after?

[@ColinCrawford]

In the Financial crash of 2008 - maximum falls were 30--50-% - today's market is quite different - while there may be some market softness over the next couple of years - there are lots of factors (taxes, lock-in low mortgage rates, transaction / moving cost, boomers passing down property to their heirs etc. resulting in low inventory. These factors will keep prices high (unless we have an economic or financial meltdown) - currently there is no evidence that a major collapse in real estate prices will occur. Some of this data is skewed by off market listings.

[@022100bmlotus]

@@ColinCrawford Boomers will sell their homes and spend the money because inflation will eat them up. Besides, all that paid for college and degrees are enough to keep the Millenials playin the latest greatest video games.

[@House_hacker_619]

In the 80’s market. inflation rate was 8%, unemployment at 10.5% and interest rates at 20%. It didn’t crash the market instead some market had seen double in prices. What’s happening right now is not even as bad compared to the 80’s stagflation. Real estate is supply and demand. You need to stop listening to crashbros. Travis is a good guy but he’s been wrong for almost 3 years now.

[@anetgrangeratlantarealtor5460]

Why would you supply comments with no research or studies to back your point of view. Only the ignorant would have any interest in what you have to say.

[@ColinCrawford]

Given the longtime need for residential property and a growing population the chances of a major fall in prices is remote unless there is a major economic upheaval. In the unlikely event of a significant fall in prices - long term investors will step in and buy up bargains pushing up prices. With the release of boomer capital and the attractiveness of owing property prices will continue to appreciate. Unfortunately tough for those of modest income trying to enter the market.