The Housing Market Outlook for 2025 with HousingWire’s Logan Mohtashami

[@MaddieBr]

Mike always has the best RE interviews, and Logan rocks!

[@michellemendeztarpley]

Love this collaboration 😊 Logan’s amazing!

[@LoganMohtashami]

[@giniaa2707]

Thanks for asking the most important questions!

[@JeffTumbarello]

I agree on the early to mid 1980s. With an S and L type correction building up in CRE and large Multifamily. The effects of interest rate shocks and rent reductions take a while to play out.

[@JeffTumbarello]

Logan, that outfit is a bold statement

[@LoganMohtashami]

I’m different for sure

[@Marie-nd6mj]

One Rental At A Time on KZbin has mostly been spot on with the housing prediction since 2020. I wonder where the others get their facts from, it is so out of tune.

[@8675-__]

Im wondering too!😂

[@heidimaestretti7176]

⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️

[@nonexistent5030]

Mortgage rates going above 8% 😊

[@LoganMohtashami]

This is a very bullish economic take; I like it, with where the spreads are today, because that is easily north of 5.33% on the 10-year yield

[@JonSmith531]

Lol. If rates go up its because the economy is good and that's good for housing! If rates go down it's because the economy is softening but lower rates are good for housing!

[@LoganMohtashami]

No, rising rates from a high sales base are not positive for housing. While the economy may show improvement, housing is a rate-sensitive sector that requires careful consideration with higher rates

[@parkerbro1989]

Does price to income ratio matter at all for home prices? Why did home prices increase 50-100% during Covid?

[@LoganMohtashami]

Total active inventory fell to the lowest levels ever in history, early in 2020, and then it worsened. The entire team's higher-rates gig I was doing in 2021 and 2022 was the need to get higher rates to cool things off, and they have. It has allowed home price growth to cool down. Back in the early 1980's things were less affordable, and prices rose faster from 1977-1979 than 2020-2022, but prices didn't fall back then.

[@ronno1202]

of course it matters. that's why inventory has more than doubled in three years, and demand is at a 30 year low. it will remain that way until sellers lower their prices.

[@LoganMohtashami]

@@ronno1202 we have near 5,000,000 total home sales that’s only off by a million from the peak total home sale levels in the last decade

[@8675-__]

Because the American dollar became devalued during the previous Trump presidency. After he printed up several TRILLION US dollars. Our dollar lost its value worldwide, causing costs to go up on everything. Including houses

[@EricAtilano]

This is the DREAM TEAM of market analysts and hosts. For a simple mortgage broker like myself, it’s these leaders who help me navigate the market for my business and clients. ❤

[@mle3857]

Throw in a mild recession, and the tables will turn.

[@mle3857]

​​@@LoganMohtashaminot sure about 2012, but when the government spends like they did during covid a recession is likely. Can I borrow your rose colored glasses? 😄

[@LoganMohtashami]

We have had many recessions post-WWII Only once did home prices crash In fact, if you take 2007-2011 out of the data pool, home prices only fell one-year post 1942, and that was 1990, and that was 1%

[@LoganMohtashami]

For those asking about what I think now that President Trump won, this was my take on mortgage rates under a Trump Presidency. kzbin.info/www/bejne/fZ2ylniVbKmWprc

[@rsmard]

Based on your 2025 prediction for mostly sideways rates (5.75-7.25), any thoughts specific to what might change if anything for new construction in 2025?

[@LoganMohtashami]

@ Rates just heading toward 6% works for the builders, but 6.75%-7.5% is problematic for construction, especially for smaller builders

[@rsmard]

@@LoganMohtashami thanks for the response. I’ve been long on the builders. 6-6.25 does feel like the sweet spot, where buyer concessions are elevating their numbers, while still delivering good profits. Maybe this advantage they’re having starts to dwindle away as inventory normalizes..

[@LoganMohtashami]

@ Profit margins over 20% help the big publically traded builders, but not all builders have that advantage. The backlog of homes is being worked through, and permits are low

[@rsmard]

@@LoganMohtashami thanks for the insight Logan 🙂