Forecasting Home Prices with Pulsenomics' Terry Loebs

[@giovannimario8363]

Thank you for this valuable information

[@PianoMatronNeeNee]

Great video ❤. Thanks for your insights.

[@giniaa2707]

2 very knowledgeable commenters without the usual hype!

[@Timandjulieharris]

very well done!

[@milestonesrealty]

Super episode, Mike! Extremely insightful and information-dense.

[@peterbedford2610]

Houses are fungible, but not easily. Being in a position of not having to sell from financial stress, has shown to create a very stable market.

[@christianrooney4428]

All depends a batting average of market predictors, who has best track record and what do they currently forecast?

[@AltosResearch]

Pulsenomics tracks that!

[@samharris82]

"In an experiment conducted by Duke University's John Graham and Campbell Harvey, when CFOs were asked to give their forecasts of the stock market, along with their 80% confidence interval, meaning the range in which they were 80% sure the result would fall, they did so, with intervals that were far too narrow. When told that the historical data implied much wider intervals, they persisted in giving the same narrow range. They were blind to and stubborn about the volatility." ~ "Fooled by Randomness" by Nassim Nicholas Taleb

[@AltosResearch]

Taleb was pointing out how futile it is to predict so many parts of the world. That's why when I started this conversation I asked Terry is it possible to forecast housing? I think Terry gives a great, insightful answer. And it distinguishes the conversation here from Taleb's thesis.

[@samharris82]

@@AltosResearchI just mean if you ask experts, the volatility of their projections is always too narrow. Like you said in the video there was expectation of a slight downside move in 2023 and then we had a massive surprise to the upside. Leading to the next Taleb quote: “the past, by bringing surprises, did not resemble the past previous to it (what I call the past's past), then why should our future resemble our current past?”

[@Tonehawkdawg]

4 million unit housing shortage. 5-6% price increases/year make sense.