Andrei Illarionov: What's at Stake in the Russia-Ukraine Conflict?

#Ukraine #Russia #Crimea
Andrei Illarionov is a Senior Fellow at the Center for Security Policy in Washington. From 2000 to 2005 he was the chief economic adviser of Russian President Vladimir Putin and the president’s personal representative in the G-8. Dr. Illarionov was the driving force behind the adoption of a 13% flat income tax, the Russia’s government’s creation of a Stabilization Fund for windfall oil revenues, reduction in the size of government and the early repayment of Russia’s foreign debt. At the end of 2005, he resigned from his post as a Presidential Advisor for what he said were three main reasons: the transformation of Russia into a politically non-free country, the capture of the Russian state by the corporation of secret police officers (“siloviki”), and horrific corruption within the Russian leadership. Earlier, in 1992, Dr. Illarionov had served as an Economic Advisor to Russia’s Acting Prime Minister Yegor Gaidar. And from 1993 to 94 he was Chief Economic Advisor to Prime Minister Victor Chernomyrdin.

[@Westminsterinstitute]

Read the full transcript: westminster-institute.org/events/whats-at-stake-in-the-russia-ukraine-conflict/

[@kennethward2537]

I had chills down my spine listening to Dr Andrei for the first 15 minutes. This man spoke in a kind of prophetic manner Putin's intentions about Ukraine. We living in interesting times.

[@TheBalterok]

since that occasion Illarionov gave a lot of interviews and his viewpoint is as insightful as then. We would like Westminster interview him again, May 2023.

[@111jow]

I love this Videos. Greetings from Brazil 🇧🇷🤓

[@randomgeographer4410]

Какой приятный традиционный англосаксонский формат интервью без всякого новояза, с аккуратной формулировкой вопросов, медленным темпом речи на нормальном американском английском. Таких журналистов и просто людей, говорящих на таком языке в США и Канаде, остаётся все меньше.

[@joseortiz7855]

Amazing info on behalf of Mr. Andrei regarding this conflict between Ukraine 🇺🇦/Russia 🇷🇺 .

[@Westminsterinstitute]

Thank you! Glad you enjoyed his talk. You might enjoy his other lecture on Putin.

[@dantepastro8465]

Many thanks to Dr. Andrei Illarionov for quite a credible insight to me. I can't say the same to about the host.

[@user-sg9fq8gp7q]

Андрей Илларионов, лучший аналитик!!!

[@patricksebopetsa5376]

Снова и снова перематываю на моменты, когда журналист произносит слово Pewtin.

[@davidgoddard5532]

Since the war began, it is now Poo tin! You would need to understand English to know that is an insult!

[@alexleibovici4834]

@@davidgoddard5532 > You would need to understand English to know that is an insult! It is highly unlikely that the director of the Westminster Institute would intentionally insult Putin - each and every time he pronounces his name.

[@yl9154]

So much assurance. Yet, talk about being proven wrong by events. At least on the short term.

[@RosieBaseball]

Wow, this is just really a very insightful and educational interview. I think half the video talked about the statistical number of military personnel that Russia would need to go into Ukraine based on 1939 and 1968, at least half a million troops required compare to the size of the civilian population, so at the time in 2021 during this "disinformation campaign", it was "inconceivable" for Russia to move into Ukraine with only 94,000 troops at Ukraine's border to take Ukraine. So, did Putin lost his mind? There were two good parts about Zelensky. At 12:06, "The comment came from Mr. Zelensky, President of Ukraine who was jokingly suggested that we are not relatives, you were relatively a very remote relatives, we're not brothers. We are probably cousins but very, very remote cousins and that is why probably it is not necessary for remote cousins to worry about this brotherly relations." 😂 At 1:08:21 "People genuinely hoped that this young person, maybe unexperienced, unexperienced politically, but not involved in political schemes, corruption schemes, bureaucratic schemes as they felt then would really bring a new era of not if not prosperity, but some kind of cleanliness and honesty and some kind of coherent behavior." Well, in retrospect, it appears that the people got the right person at the right time. It is not clear how Mr. Zelensky will govern post Russia's "special military operation" on 2/24/22.

[@shooter7a]

When these statements were made, Illarionov said 94,000 men was not nearly enough. By the time Putin invaded, it was over twice that. It would have been interesting to hear Illarionov's view two months after this interview was recorded. I think people are judging these statements of early December 2021 on a reality that continued to change for two more months, before the actual invasion occurred.

[@cantatanoir6850]

He addressed this issue in details some months ago and openly admitted that he had made a mistake.

[@riccardogentilucci5724]

and then after just three months... It didn't age well, ain't Andrei?

[@ericwedin4154]

To view Biden as a big helper of Putin was a new angle…🙄

[@rossr6616]

I was enthralled until western media was blamed

[@floret02]

Anyone who is remotely aware of military tactics and operations LUL would say that means to wage a war nowadays depend on artillery, bombs, aircraft warfare and air defence - NOT INFANTRY. Deep analysis that takes half of the interview is just POOF. As to comments like "Ukraine should not be in NATO" - a man does not choose where he is born. If one personally is ok that some other people will suffer continuously under social, cultural and military pressure just because they are living on world-created buffer zone between West and Russia, well this one has no soul. NATO is military organization that was created in response to the threat posed by the Soviet Union. The sole purpose of NATO is to fight back the russian aggression in Europe. So what we are seeing right now, is that little Ukraine is basically doing NATO job, while all of the world is hiding like a goddamn cowards. Check other interviews of people that were close to Putin - all as one say, that is if he knew that the world would answer his aggression in military way united, he would never started the war.

[@captainvardia9923]

so slavic nations have less lingvistic and other hystorical and religious bonds in common than americans have between them ???...

[@user-ze9vs1wu8i]

Так забавно слышать слово пьютин.

[@Thesebjustseb]

to the uploader of this video: consider disabling comments, this man's arguments speak for themselves, no need for second opinions from... interested parties

[@Westminsterinstitute]

We like even the rude comments. It helps with KZbin's algorithm. We would prefer intelligent, thoughtful responses though.

[@thomaswayneward]

Wow, another Neo Marxist that wants to shut down free speech.

[@Redfour5]

First, kudos to the moderator. He goes at the key points of weaknesses of Illarionov's argument. He makes good points on the ratio of forces needed to attack, but the hybrid approach he has discussed at other times are not as dependent upon raw troops. It is a new way of war in a digital age. If you can destroy the logistical and communication infrastructures of a military force at the level of societal disruption, you have a new paradigm of the use of military force against an enemy. He also only addresses forces on the essentially Donbas border. If you consider forces in Crimea and in Belarus then what do you have? The moderator addresses this calling it an encirclement. I would like to hear from the Ukrainians what they think of this guys point of view he. His defense of his points is to attack a high level Ukrainian officials who's position is supportive of a "real" military threat and so, imho is relatively...specious...particularly since he is NOT a military expert. He is very interesting. His position is well thought out, but tends to go off in odd directions imho. If you listen carefully, he essentially says that Biden and Putin are working together in common interests. I think that is a bridge too far... So, I listen to his arguments and agree to a point and then imho he kind of goes off into the ozone of specious logic. But then in the macro, I will then agree with him. From a purely geopolitical/strategic standpoint, long term, the real threat to Russia is China. From that standpoint, Russia moving back toward the west seems to resonate with me in relation to that part of his argument. Well, one thing for sure, he is an interesting person. But, he is NOT afraid to spin what he knows around what he thinks is important, and he's good at it. From that perspective, he can kind of go out there pushing borderline conspiracy theories... It is interesting to note his dearth of criticism for anything Trump did or said that was supportive of Russia/Putin. It would seem that blatant obvious support would have concerned him more than it did... There is a story here not told. This man is very sophisticated in his perspective. I have no clue where he is coming from, but always worth considering. I am a bit surprised that Putin hasn't made any attempts to whack him however. He could be as dangerous or more dangerous to Putin/Russia than people Putin has whacked. If anyone has information on threats to him by Russia, I'd be interested in hearing about them.

[@dranelemakol]

He has spoken in Russian-language interviews numerous times that while Trump spoke more diplomatically, he provided several times more defense aid to Ukraine than is now (which was cut by Biden IN SPITE OF Congress), and his presidency marked a far more peaceful period than either under Obama or Biden. With Bidens refusal to block Nord stream 2, Illarionov feels that he is in his deeds much more appeasing than Trump was.

[@dranelemakol]

He has also said that because he avoids discussing information shared to him in confidence and goes only off public record (and avoids directly saying Putin murdered somebody and things like that) he feels relatively safe. He was also never part of the FSB and was very much an outsider in Russian politics except for his advisor position and G-8 Sherpa role. He does not have many friends inside whom he is betraying now.

[@Redfour5]

@@dranelemakol You make interesting observations

[@elenan.7121]

Why would Putin want to expand the Russian territories? Don't they have enough of their own???

[@oliverabone4564]

The mainly Russian citizens in the 2 easternmost provinces were attacked and killed by the Ukrainians since 2014. These people begged Russia to protect them and make them part of Russia. There is a case of 4o or so Russians burnt to death in a clash in Odessa. Google the events since the U.S. overthrew the legitimately elected government in Ukraine.

[@elenan.7121]

Russians.Belarusians and Ukranians are a part of one! ethnic group, ancient Rutherian (Rus) russian peoples!

[@svetlanaproskurovska6795]

An agrument against Illarionov's point that 100,000 troops is not sufficient for a whole scale invasion. - For comparison: The U.S.-led coalition sent 177,194 troops into Iraq during the initial invasion phase, which lasted from 19 March to 1 May 2003. About 130,000 arrived from the U.S. alone, with about 45,000 British soldiers, 2,000 Australian soldiers, and 194 Polish soldiers. Thirty-six other countries were involved in its aftermath. - It is not to say that the invasion was victorious, but the war brought a lot of damage to Iraq

[@san3har]

This comment aged like milk eh...

[@Thom3748]

What a difference two months made. Illarionov's argument was on target. A full scale invasion.

[@MrDobberdude]

This hasn't aged well

[@shooter7a]

I don't agree. When he made these statements, in potential invasion force was only 94,000, and he argued it was not nearly enough to be serious. But it continued to change. This interview was not recorded Fed 26, 2022.

[@arimoff]

What he was trying to say, Russia had 90k troops and Ukraine had 500k troops... 500k couldn't stop 90k? Ukrainian generals sold the country for Brandon

[@margaritaviveros8017]

Funny how they tell one part of a story.

[@riverchoctaw9480]

Which part is this. I’m intrigued?

[@Redfour5]

Which part?

[@user-fg8xc8pq9g]

President Piuwtin

[@davidgoddard5532]

Poo tin!

[@oliverabone4564]

⁠@@davidgoddard5532Biden called Putin a “thug”. Those are the words you use when you have no brains, no argument and to boot, you are the most corrupt President that American has ever had. Did you know that Biiden was the greatest cheerleader for all the wars since Vietnam He is responsible for the deaths of hundreds of thousands of a Ukrainian soldiers and people of Ukraine. But he doesn’t care. His own son Joseph Beau Biden got a brain tumor while he was an administrator in Kosovo. A brain tumor due to the depleted uranium bombs used in Kosovo. Over 150 Italian peacekeepers also in Kosovo, asked the UN for compensation because of their cancers. Biden tells stories how Beau died fighting in Iraq. I have seen Putin talking about the sadness of the issues with Ukraine, after all, they all come from the same fraternity.

[@anilchauisms]

So right about Putin/ Ukraine, so wrong about Biden / Trump

[@balendas4511]

Ukraineshouldnotgonato