ANOTHER AI ADVENTURE | Draftsmith Deck #2 | Mythic | Throne of Eldraine | Magic Arena Premier Draft

[@TheDemonicTutorMTG]

POST-EDIT THOUGHTS: So I wanted to better assess Draftsmith's rankings by looking at 17lands's card-in-hand win rate data for pack 1, pick 1. So I have listed every card in pack 1, pick 1, in descending Draftsmith order, with the Draftsmith rating in parentheses, followed by 17lands's win rate percentage. 1. Ardenvale Tactician (45) - 57.0% 2. Merfolk Secretkeeper (44) - 62.6% 3. Rosethorn Acolyte (41) - 55.5% 4. Overwhelmed Apprentice (39) - 62.5% 5. Silverflame Squire (37) - 53.1% 6. Wishing Well (34) - 58.6% 7. Cauldron Familiar (25) - 61.2% 8. Gingerbread Cabin (21) - 55.8% 9. Embereth Paladin (18) - 56.1% 10: Mirrormade (9) - 56.0% 11. Elite Headhunter (7) - 50.7% 12. Eye Collector (4) - 53.2% 13. Locthwain Gargoyle (2) - 52.3% 14. Roving Keep (2) - N/A So according to 17lands, there were four cards that had higher win rates than Draftsmith's #1 pick (in descending win rate order: Merfolk Secretkeeper, Overwhelmed Apprentice, Cauldron Familiar, Wishing Well). I had passed up 3 Merfolk Secretkeepers in Pack 1, and the Overwhelmed Apprentice had wheeled, so I had missed out on a heavy mill deck. Furthermore, based on color archetype pairings, 17lands considers white inferior to blue. Blue has three 2-color pairings that have win rates higher than the average 2-color deck (55.7%): blue/black (56.8%), blue/green (56.9%), and blue/red (56.4%). Whereas white only has one: red/white (56.6%). And yet Draftsmith had me select a white card over three blue cards. So what could be causing the discrepancies? It's likely that 17lands is sampling from a significantly different population than untapped.gg. I cannot find the average Limited win rate of an untapped.gg user, but the average 17lands win rate for Premium Throne of Eldraine is 56.8%, significantly higher than the average MTGA player. Assuming that the average untapped.gg user has a lower Limited win rate than the average 17lands user, it could be that Ardenvale Tactician has a higher win rate among lower-ranked players. For future drafts, I'll continue to compare Draftsmith ratings with 17lands win rate data and see what could be going on. Any other observations from this draft? Would love to hear read your comments below!