Arctic Air on the move, but where will it go?

[@kangzau1006]

Recently found out that the weather channel is a corporate hoarder of weather data. Laid off a lot of local meteorologists to streamline their cost of service, so this channel is especially precious. Thanks.

[@paulsorensen7110]

Wednesday will be 17 days without precip in Portland. That matches the record set in 1948 Hope the models all go snow. Thanks Michael!

[@davidtiessen7713]

There's little moisture in the snow, fog or clouds so unnaturally 17 days no rain when 17 day of rain normal. Expect the future to deliver the same cause effect anticyclonic doldrum weather we see today - stable, stagnant, dry, only more like LA. I'm Salmon Arm BC, experiencing the same unnatural, observing same everywhere practily. Here no snow pack to see, very low clouds, weird 2 tonne white tops, bottom dark grey, never rains, little snow more like ice particles with air suspension properties. Began observing then researching 1+yrs..... weather mod & dial in like on a timer..... for past few days no matter the time I looked, day or night, the temp was static at zero or 0.5. For 2 months its been +/-2 again hovering near zero.

[@coopersy]

Got books, stocking up on food. Snow is pretty, but as an old retired guy, lowland snow means not leaving the house…

[@mikespring9530]

Thank you for all you do! I hope we see at least one snow event this year! Keep your fingers crossed :) 🤞🌧️❄️🌧️☃️

[@___sevenseveneight]

Thanks for the update, hope that gfs run is true with those larger snow percentages. I will tune in again tomorrow.

[@hurricaneheather1420]

Happy Sunday Michael Thank you for the update 😊

[@ubiquitousLeees]

Give me that birthday week snow! 🤩

[@warrior64]

Yes to lowland snow. I don’t mind the shoveling

[@NancyAnn67]

My phone weather says SNOW next Sunday&Monday. 🤩😃❄️⛄️

[@brownwrench]

😐 lowland snow makes my job a living hell.

[@DanMoung-q8y]

Like I'm supposed to care? NO one asked you!

[@dane7539]

@@DanMoung-q8y HAHA let it snow!!!!

[@DogBeast221]

Ah, I remember back before the war when all that phones did was facilitate phone calls…

[@DogBeast221]

The determination of the arrival of arctic air appears to be indeterminate.

[@jonathanfriend4332]

Thanks for the update! It has been nice having so much sun in January, but I am ready for a pattern change! 20 degrees this morning here in Sammamish. Our coldest morning, yet this season.

[@violetdreams1799]

good morning! ☕🌞🥶 thanks for the report Michael! happy Sunday

[@Professor_Carl_Satan]

Remember, folks! All it takes is an inch or two of snow to throw the Puget Sound lowlands into utter chaos. Bring it! :)

[@suereams1904]

Same in the WV. Pretty wimpy winter drivers compared to the brave souls in the upper Midwest.

[@fleshhammer656]

Gonna be cold! For outdoor workers like me, it's going to be awful!

[@thomassmestead9905]

Although I'm retired, the brutality of having to work outside by younger folks crosses my mind, because I have experienced it, as a younger fellow.

[@jamesreding6336]

I know Tacoma dosnt get the conversion Zone like Everett does we get ripped off and we some times in rain shadow from North west flow

[@jaymontgomery3330]

Port Angeles and Sequim often get Straight affect snow at some point during these artic blasts. Amounts can be huge.

[@DonnaSmith-x3e]

What about Oregon?

[@draperone371]

Thank you ❤ 😊

[@LeeNelson-n3n]

Be nice if you could show the dates on the maps more prominently. I lose track!

[@debbienelson8013]

Thankyou Michael! You are the funnest and best!!❤❤❤❤❤

[@dottier3145]

It was beautiful at Willamette vineyard yesterday. Sat outside!

[@Kornatzz]

I want to drift around the streets!!! Bring all the snow to Washington!!!

[@Donny-does-it]

It's always a snow tease here in western WA. So frustrating. I want it to dump hard!!

[@joncomte6443]

Lexington Wa USA 🇺🇸🤠

[@peacedove9513]

KOKOPELLI RAIN ❄️🌨🌦❄️🌧🌨❄️🌦🌧DANCE 💃🕺FOR THE COLORADO RIVER

[@ktnsteve]

Thanks so much ~ be safe.

[@GailMagnuson-w7q]

Thanks, for all that! Hoping for snow, but, Pacific Northwest, we wait and see! 🙂 I'm ready to be done with freezing temperatures, and, no snow! 😄

[@greggutierrez6997]

Finally rain in San Diego.

[@ediewall6360]

Beware of the mud slides

[@stevebubbie1126]

Hi Mike most of the models are having trouble with the Pacific energy flow, not giving the high pressure over Alaska enough influence over the Pacific flow. Even the Canadian is showing this and now putting high pressure over Alaska. Now the ICON is the outlier(12Z run)as early as this Friday with very little Arctic intrusion into the Pac NorthWest. The European except for the AI is also giving the Pacific storms more attention, backing off from yesterday's run and the Arctic Air intrusion. GFS is the lone hold out. The PNA is all over the map after February 1st, half going negative the other half going positive. This winter, any forecast past 5 days is suspect.

[@stevebubbie1126]

Mike, Can you also show the ICON as well? Thanks

[@harrisonrutledge5]

Well said. I think we go back to southwest flow like the 12z ecmwf shows.

[@PacificNorthwestWeather]

All models show significant arctic air into British Columbia, all of them.

[@stevebubbie1126]

@@PacificNorthwestWeather - of course all have BC but Icon 12z is a little further East lessening the chance of any snow fall but how far south? 12Z ECMF as you pointed out takes the low far off the coast along with it the cold outbreak chances for Washington and definitely Oregon. BC gets hit while Washington and Oregon get spared?. Did you look at the PNA graphs? Wide discrepancies after Feb 1st.

[@herdbull]

Shovel and atv plow ready! Cannot complain about the last 10 days, been awesome! Thanks for always bringing the most legit forecast in the PNW👊🏻💯❄️

[@lauracochran3213]

👍 thx for the Info. I appreciate it.

[@katreniaclark]

Had 24 here in downtown Everett @7:am

[@pnwmotocross]

Snow dance everyone! Snow! Dance!!! Cmon!

[@JohnB-nr4qk]

Its gonna be a week of model anxiety!

[@suereams1904]

The suspense is killing me. At the minimum we will get snow in the mtns. Nice to see Oregon’s snowpack still in good shape.

[@leilaniunger1528]

Do we need a snow ❄️ hype video?..

[@archerfire77]

Bring it on Mother Nature 🙏☃️🕺

[@harrisonrutledge5]

There's no continuity in the two different models. One wants to insist on northwest flow, while another wants to insist on southerly flow. Great analysis. Long way to go for sure. At least we get a pattern change.

[@eddiebibler1174]

Please let's get snow in portland lol no one shows up to my job when it snows 😂

[@LonaPua_Pouliuli-Popoki]

🤙Aloha y'all mahalo Michael Manager: "We are all in this same boat." I be like, Ummm the Titanic?

[@lanevanderwaal1234]

Yeah all models did the flip flop and cuts off the extream cold arctic air for puget sound in extended. Gfs is the odd ball rn will see what that does next run in 6hrs..lets hope the jet heads off to the east like it showed yesterday and flips back to a gateway for arctic air to get west of cascades. still hope but not looking good like yesterdays runs . thanks for your update..

[@PacificNorthwestWeather]

ECMWF AIFS, GFS and ICON show arctic air into western WA, and ECMWF ENS are very close to it.

[@harrisonrutledge5]

This year about 3 days out is all i trust.

[@BigVine-m5i]

Michael, I'm going to Kauai soon. Who's channel do you recommend for up to date weather much like what you offer?

[@loveofit6498]

Thanks!

[@mikekimbrough7978]

It was 18 at my hiuse this am tenino wa

[@TJ-id6ee]

brrr

[@jaimehart5108]

Hey, Boss, what’s the deal with the AI data now used after the stand models? They all use the same data sources don’t they?

[@stevenkramer6217]

Could you please define “disruptive snowfall”? Disruptive to what? Modern life? Drought conditions? Travel?

[@LeoNation007]

Snow plzzz ❄️❄️❄️❤️❤️❤️

[@snohomishwawx1982]

I hope it snows Ty for uploading

[@davidtiessen7713]

Why is arctic air, polar vortex having an excursion weekly? What's displacing it?

[@highplainsdrifter9995]

16⁰ in Wilson Creek this morning.... 33⁰ now, clear and sun, 28.78 and rising, 67% humidity. Little wind outta the NW

[@hudsonfrank1121]

Snow flakes are appearing in our weather apps. But check participation chance 20%. Don't give your hopes up. Frosty mornings so be careful.

[@danielmoung9098]

I don't understand the gfs model Michael, the gfs model you show at 5:50 shows widespread lowland snow across the willamette valley and western washington. When I look at nws portland though it only shows rain for the willamette valley next weekend and under their forecast discussion they say only a 20% chance of snow below 500 ft. Why such a stark difference?

[@PacificNorthwestWeather]

Because thats just one deterministic run, and ensembles show it being very close right now, but by no means a slam dunk

[@danielmoung9098]

@@PacificNorthwestWeather I know you you like noaa, but this is why I doubt the accuracy of the national weather service sometimes. Because they don't even show any snow nest weekend and it's only one deterministic run

[@johnnyboyvan]

It will most likely rain 🌧 and not snow .

[@PacificNorthwestWeather]

For who? When? Based on what?

[@johnnyboyvan]

@PacificNorthwestWeather my experience with glorious Vancouver, Canada 🇨🇦.

[@RicardoM24]

Winter time 🎉

[@Myo24]

Gr8 M8! I have to agree tho w some that the social tags r a bit distracting!

[@DogBeast221]

Can a Rex block be countermanded by a Regina block?

[@Maxmcool]

What do you think the chances of us getting significant snowfall?

[@danielmoung9098]

I think like Michael said, too early to tell. Bound to change some and flip flop a lot too. I'm in Salem, OR and I want good snow too.

[@user-gj9cn7tn5r]

Is the AI model predicting the weather or controlling the weather?

[@PacificNorthwestWeather]

"The Weather" isnt a computer program that can be controlled.

[@pfcjamin]

Hopeful for no snow

[@tomjensen618]

The weather chanels 10 day forecast remains unconvinced about snow in the lowlands?

[@michaelclark7536]

What does twelve Z mean or refer to ?

[@stevebubbie1126]

the Time. "Zulu" or Greenwich Meridan Time. 12Z is midnight in England where Greenwich Meridan time is located

[@angelmacias2885]

Me and my homies like the GFS 😆

[@genehammond7239]

👍👍👍👍

[@Luckyduck10]

No snow until Monday! Gotta get past the mountains headed south out of Seattle on Saturday. No snow please!

[@johnp9988]

🍻

[@jamesreding6336]

I predict artic will hit some where in us ha ha

[@jamesreding6336]

Air

[@folee_edge]

🤞🤞🥶🥶🌨🌨🥶🥶🤞🤞

[@richard-cf8ce]

It didn't do anything that the computer said it would

[@PacificNorthwestWeather]

What didn't?

[@Mr_CGS]

It will snow

[@AndrewZelenka]

The pattern we've had this winter suggests it will disappoint the snow babies out there.

[@luccac6247]

Snow babies? I suggest you educate yourself a bit better on weather and why SNOW is actually needed going into the various seasons coming up. Civil discourse is sure spiraling the toilet bowl more and more these days.

[@AndrewZelenka]

Civil discourse? 😂 Snow baby: the people who love snow more than any thing else (my wife is one of them). As farmers of 40+ years experience and who live in the northern coastal mountains of Oregon I am fully aware of the importance of our precious snow pack. I am also very aware of the changing weather patterns that my area is currently going through. With that said I would like to say that your comment does suggest that you are a quick tempered judgy person who has no sense of humor. I hope it snows and you take the time to go out and play in it. Seems you need it.

[@briAction]

Suggestive thumbnail

[@johnschwartz8015]

22 in Hoodsport this am.😢