Are China and India fueling Russia's war economy? Jeffrey Sonnenfeld interview | DW Business Special

Professor Jeffrey Sonnenfeld from the Yale School of Management joins us to discuss whether India and China are keeping the Russian economy alive and whether their support is enough to counter the blow of Western sanctions. Professor Sonnenfeld argues that the outlook for the Russian economy is far poorer than predictions from the International Monetary Fund suggest and that Russian oil exports are not boosting the economy because they are being sold at such a discounted price.
DW asked the IMF for its response to this interview. An IMF spokesperson issued the following statement:
“The IMF's GDP forecasts for Russia are based on a comprehensive analysis of official data as well as a wide range of third-party data sources, including trade data from Russia's trading partners. Although we anticipate Russia's growth at 0.7 percent in 2023, we expect fiscal and external pressures to emerge later this year. We also expect the Russian economy to lag behind in the medium-term. Specifically, we now project that the size of Russia's economy will be about 7 percent smaller in 2027 than in our pre-war forecasts.
Moreover, our projections are aligned with those of other international organizations and private sector institutions, most of whom have recently revised their short-term economic forecasts upwards. They, like us, also expect lower output prospects in the medium term than was the case before the war. Our projections for Russia, as with those for other members, are founded on a rigorous analysis of official and third-party data. Our work is based on facts.
In addition to Mr. Sonnenfeld’s misconceptions about the IMF’s economic forecasts, his assertions contain regrettable basic factual errors.”
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#Russia #Economy #JeffreySonnenfeld

[@dwnews]

DW asked the IMF for its response to this interview. An IMF spokesperson issued the following statement: “The IMF's GDP forecasts for Russia are based on a comprehensive analysis of official data as well as a wide range of third-party data sources, including trade data from Russia's trading partners. Although we anticipate Russia's growth at 0.7 percent in 2023, we expect fiscal and external pressures to emerge later this year. We also expect the Russian economy to lag behind in the medium-term. Specifically, we now project that the size of Russia's economy will be about 7 percent smaller in 2027 than in our pre-war forecasts. Moreover, our projections are aligned with those of other international organizations and private sector institutions, most of whom have recently revised their short-term economic forecasts upwards. They, like us, also expect lower output prospects in the medium term than was the case before the war. Our projections for Russia, as with those for other members, are founded on a rigorous analysis of official and third-party data. Our work is based on facts. In addition to Mr. Sonnenfeld’s misconceptions about the IMF’s economic forecasts, his assertions contain regrettable basic factual errors.”

[@alexhenry7443]

Guess we'll have to wait until 2027 to see the IMF proved wrong again.

[@wololocute]

Germany is second largest Russian importer at 25 billion dollars while China is first at 66 billion dollars Russian imports in financial year 2022.

[@wololocute]

Ukraine purchased 400 million dollars of Russian oil from Pakistan it's long standing ally and weapons buyer.

[@hape3862]

@@wololocute Germany's imports from Russia went down by 91% in Feb. 2023 ($300 Million) compared to Feb. 2022 ($3.7 Billion!). Our exports to Russia went down by 60% to $0.8 Billion. Thus, we have an export surplus of $0.5 Billion and Russia is loosing money as it imports far more from Germany than it exports to Germany. (Source: German Federal Statistical Office) I don't know where you get the idea that Russia is somehow profiting from Germany - the opposite is true.

[@joydeep3928]

*Legendary Hypocrisy exposed* 🤣 Ukraine has been 'using U.S. aid to buy' fuel from Russia, the country Kyiv is at war with, a report has said.

[@abc_cba]

India went to Guyana to purchase discounted oil which they refused. With US having restrictions on Venezuela, Cuba, Iran. Wheteas, the Algerian, Saudi and other Gulf Oil being expensive its not a joke for a country where 35%-48% of the income goes into taxes(direct or indirect) with an average income of less than $200/ month for its vast majority to suffice. US should allot some of its oil reserves, so, should Canada which also has massive oil reseves to India at the discounted rate, that would be helpful. Id appreciate a video on that.

[@anixes]

Guyana has offered India to buy oil blocks instead. Now India can drill its own oil after purchasing the oil blocks in Guyana. It's much better deal.

[@abc_cba]

@@anixes think about the transport, the machinery, the shipping? That's still gonna be expensive for us. I guess, India should break the US drama and purchase oil from Iran directly, that will be a game changer.

[@anixes]

@@abc_cba it's one time investment. Indian companies are always looking for oil blocks in other countries or to invest in oil blocks. India already has stake in oil blocks of Iran and Russia.

[@littlekeyb6352]

​@@abc_cba 😂 thinking like a master economist while thinking you can change the game.. When whoever in power to make it happen already bootlicking the US policy

[@narenchowdarymulpuri]

Yeah but did the cost of gas reduce in India after buying “cheap Russian oil for its poor population” the simple answer is no. Instead the profit goes into the pockets of corrupted officials sadly.

[@lukadundur8341]

Can you imagine prices of oil on world market if India an China are boycotting Russian Oil

[@ayush885]

150$ a barrel.

[@sneakymove]

R u kidding me....Europe bought more than India. Do your research

[@Ashish-no1ck]

@@sneakymove - Exactly, West wants India to fight it's war with Russia and turn friend against friend , brother against brother like in Ukraine.

[@BlackholeJET369]

Why are Europe and US still purchasing Russian oil through India...?

[@ayush885]

@@BlackholeJET369 why not? That way, India benefits, the west benefits, and Russia still has to sell cheap oil.

[@andrei1971]

I'm glad they let the professor complete his thoughts each time. This was a great interview. Very well done.

[@gfan83]

But real numbers say opposite to this "expert". Russia's export profits even under sanctions rise 20% in comparison with last year.

[@expat48]

@@gfan83 You state "Export profits" rise 20%. FYI, "exports" may in the best case rise 20% but profits NO.... eg. "export losses" have increased by 20 - 30% on their oil export which is their main export... Russia does not produce anything that would be interesting for the Western world. No wonder they are looting toilets, ovens and washing machines in Ukraine. (Now they are looting toilet paper.... Funny fact... They opened the first toilet paper factory in 1969 for their 130 million people those days)

[@gfan83]

@@expat48 it don't change the fact that after this sanctions export profits of Russia rised by 20%.

[@gfan83]

@@expat48 and you even lie about toilet paper in Russia. It was produced since 1912 in Saint-Petersburg. Also there was production in Kondrovo factory since 1939.

[@andersonlangosh6386]

Agreed. And his not wrong about this stuff, a lot of specialists from another countries have similar predictions about the future of russian economy. It's understandable to be honest, because a country which relies on selling its resources can't really grow its economy while they're selling these resources almost for free while also waging a full-scale war in another country. Just doesn't work like that.

[@minos99]

Who is "financing" Russia's war in Ukraine: 1. Ukraine: Diesel for it's tanks through third party 2. EU: still the biggest buyer of Russian oil 3. Germany, France, USA:(2023) bought enriched Uranium of about 3B Euros 4. South Korea and Japan: minerals 5. The usuals: China, India, Saudi Arabia buying Russian oil...but they should feel guilty, only Europe can import Russian oil guilt free. I STAND FOR HIPOCRISY😅

[@evgeniybastrykov]

this is nonsense because even Russian-neutral countries such as Turkey have reduced the purchase of Russian resources by more than 80%, not to mention the countries of Europe that have almost completely refused to buy anything from the aggressor, the Russian economy is now at a loss

[@andersonlangosh6386]

come up with better lies pls this is pretty boring

[@karna8658]

India is doing what is beneficial for its own people. India is neutral. I guess China is doing the same.

[@Neeleish_cr_gaawre]

Why dont usa allow iranian, Venezuela oil to market they stoped every source of oil then say dont buy oil which you can get a best deal for

[@karna8658]

@@Neeleish_cr_gaawre the west are hipocrit

[@bodavinay4420]

Why are you not talking about nuclear fuel that europe is getting from russia ?? Are you not fueling them ?

[@wololocute]

@@SegFault69 Germany imported 25 not million dollar from Russia. US 13 billion dollars.

[@jatin9070]

​​@Null Pointer what will you say about the record purchase of Russian LNG by EU countries according to latest data ?

[@vikashyadav7744]

@Null Pointer a few million for few people - look at the conumption per head then

[@vikashyadav7744]

@Null Pointer if we dont throw money for cheap oil ,then there will be more death becoz of the reccession which is going to hit after wards, look at indias population u fool , our farmers will more inclined towards sucide ,in reccssion.

[@bodavinay4420]

@Null Pointer it is irrelevant if you pay milllions or billions, all that matters is country's interest at the cost of its own citizens. when situations arise Nuclear plants that should be shut down will be prolonged, or constructed newly. Its upto each countries economics.

[@navalfa7291]

Well unlike Germany, Indian politicians still have answer to the people of India. So their actions reflect National interest.

[@kth6736]

Good point. The west is basically ruled by a uniparty. No matter if its flag is red or blue or green. All have same policies.

[@mariannabatz9733]

We pray for the victory of Ukraine. It will be a victory of good over evil a victory of the future over the past

[@majorblitz__5689]

​@@mariannabatz9733 lol 🤣 a hollow victory... Btw glory to Russia ❤

[@Neeleish_cr_gaawre]

@@mariannabatz9733 who are you to decide who is good and who is evil dont jude anyone after watching few western media report😂

[@peabase]

It's easier for the German electorate to vote out a government than it is for India's to do likewise. Me thinks you're making excuses for India's lack of morals. What kind of excuses should we come up with, when China and/or Pakistan invade India once more?

[@rohitmishra670]

He is a true expert, he has actual and factual knowledge and data. He did not exaggerate or talk BS like DW inhouse experts. So much knowledge gained and knew actual ground information from Sonnenfeld

[@danieldach4697]

Russian officials are unwilling to accept that the world economy can function without Russia, despite the fact that the Kremlin's expectations of Russia's production prospects are unrealistic.

[@mariannabatz9733]

We pray for the victory of Ukraine. It will be a victory of good over evil a victory of the future over the past

[@papastalin1543]

Well journalists in general are people with less intelligence, you should not expect anything good from them, professors on other hands are people of higher iq

[@y5chu]

Except Skoda is a Czech company, not Russian..... Fact checking is important, don't just believe it because the prof said it.

[@shamikghosh1131]

@@mariannabatz9733 keep praying for the foreseeable future. This war will not end in the next 10 years, in a year more you will forget all about it as media will fill your heads with the next crisis.

[@jeanneknight4791]

Professor Sonneneld is my favorite of the DW speakers. Thank you so much for bringing him back!. I recommend the episodes with him frequently.

[@vishalkhanna1476]

Good Evening..Natural gas now 3 years low... every dip is an opportunity looks attractive?? Pl ignore if you don't trade

[@hofnaerrchen]

As always with Professor Sonnenfeld: Far to short... could listen to what he has to say for hours.

[@buddy1155]

It is not just the professor, also the host: she asked good questions and gave him the time let him explain properly.

[@ghhghh8554]

looks like you like Fairy Tales .

[@dpelpal]

The value of the ruble is collapsing, and if one superimposed that graph over the price of a barrel of oil, the two are directly related 100%. Russia has very little high margin industries other than oil. Their gas market is decimated an d will likely not recover.

[@ghhghh8554]

@@dpelpal the bottom line is that Russia is still ok will not surrender and hundred of thousands of Ukrainians are dying.

[@scottkrater2131]

​@@ghhghh8554 If I liked fairy tales I'd be watching RT.😂😂.

[@shuilong52]

I opine that 1. India and China or any country has every right to buy the oil in the interest of their economy. 2. Whatever amount of oil that Russia sold, it is revenue to them.

[@user-hx2hi9oq7d]

你是正确的。德国人现在也很不务实了吗？目前看来确实如此。仅仅是因为高层被美国渗透严重，还是因为几万美国军队驻扎？我看各类因素都汇聚一起引起的严重后果。 德国人的通胀居高不下，其中工业用资源更是涨价到夸张的地步，以至于大量依赖大宗商品的企业，考虑搬迁到其他国家。 贸易顺差大幅度减少，物价飞涨，就是制裁俄罗斯的后果。

[@marnixbrugmans4181]

Yes and yes. But revenue doesn't equal profit. Interestingly, Russia needs to keep selling, even at a loss, at least some amount. If the Eastern wellheads are shut down, they can't be reactivated easily. The ones around the Caucasus can, but these are Russia's cheapest producing wells. So if they cut volume to drive up price, their own production cost goes up. If they keep pumping, global prices stay low and they still don't make a profit

[@garyeuscher4499]

WUMAO!!!

[@mynjeri5469]

@@marnixbrugmans4181 then why the west keep crying about India and China buying oil from Russia?

[@user-hx2hi9oq7d]

@@marnixbrugmans4181 欧佩克已经宣布减产，油价会持续在80美元一桶徘徊，最差也不会跌倒60以下，所以有时候别自慰。包括欧洲，日本现在依然在大量购买俄罗斯石油。自欺欺人可不是作为文明人的表现。这个世界离开谁都行，美国消失了，世界怎么运转继续怎么运转，别把自己看得太重要，你其实什么都不是。

[@trideep220280]

The lady couldn't get one bad thing out of the professor on India. Poor soul

[@pratikpatil6342]

😂

[@mohamadazamabdullah4191]

Because the US wants india to be on its side for the time being.

[@pratikpatil6342]

@Mohamad Azam Abdullah USA may be on India's side, but India has no sides. As a sovereign nation, we see Russia and USA with equal lenses.

[@trideep220280]

The war should teach any party that maximum self-sufficiency is the key. The closer you are, the more likely the outcome would be in your favour.

[@vickyyadav5723]

@@mohamadazamabdullah4191 India has never taken any side....nd will never take...

[@user-wy5ns3vo9t]

Вы за нас не переживайте, мы такие экономические ужасы пережили в 90ых, что эти проблемы кажутся незначительными.

[@hollystallworth7996]

Dr. Sonnenfeld is just the opposite of a politician: filled with facts and fact-based insights, devoid of rhetoric and platitudes. I loved this interview.

[@user-xh4uk1rh3b]

Dumbest I have ever seen😅

[@JL-tm3rc]

he got many thing wrong the marginal cost of production he mentioned already included the tax imposed by russia. No company will sell oil at a loss, that is why the oil price cap is at around 2019 price. even if the oil company breaks even, the russian government will still get the same revenue from oil per barrel. the total russian exports is higher in 2022 than 2021

[@xolonniexo180]

@@JL-tm3rc and exactly how much additional cash per barrel is the cost to transport that energy all the way around to China and India. It DOES take about a month for the energy to get to those new markets and the insurance, if they can get it’ doesn’t exist. Who would trust Russia if they suggest they will insure it themselves? Nobody! So please don’t even try to convince anybody with a map that Russia makes as much or more than they used to. Ridiculous.

[@adelatorremothelet]

Why is he measuring local oil production costs in dollars. Local costs are mostly measured in rubles, transport cost supplied by foreign companies are measured in dollars, that's correct.

[@dpelpal]

@@JL-tm3rc No they won't, and this is why the value of the ruble has been collapsing since the oil price cap has been imposed. Google a graph of the two, they're directly related.

[@S0ulinth3machin3]

This is some great information. Please have Professor Sonnenfeld on more often.

[@alejotrejozarco363]

He has ukrania flags 😅😅😅😅

[@kampfmuffin3535]

@@alejotrejozarco363 and?

[@chillxxx241]

India and China getting cheaper oil helps keep inflation at manageable levels for India and China.

[@chillxxx241]

@Apsoy Pike They are losing millions a day. They have to sell at a loss because they need cash flow and most importantly foreign reserves that can be used to get thing like microchips.

[@atulsodhi8985]

​@Apsoy Pike the *biggest* factor is if they don't keep the oil flowing out then it'll stop and freeze in the pipelines, and they will burst and it'll take years if not decades to repair and bring it back online.

[@asgglass2709]

Thank you DW for inviting Dr. Sonnenfeld as your guest. This was a very long wait since his last interview, with DW.

[@danieldach4697]

Demonstrating the actual economic condition is more challenging than claiming that production has not decreased and that the nation's economy is in high demand worldwide.

[@vishalkhanna1476]

Good Evening..Natural gas now 3 years low... every dip is an opportunity looks attractive?? Pl ignore this if you don't trade

[@JustinTimeEnglishClip]

Thank you to Professor Jeffrey Sonnenfeld for the clarity! Great interview; keep it coming 🙂

[@danieldach4697]

According to Professor Sonnenfeld, the outlook for the Russian economy is significantly more pessimistic than what the International Monetary Fund had anticipated. Furthermore, the nation's oil exports are not aiding in economic growth as they are being sold at undervalued prices.

[@harshajm843]

Same hypocrite EU countries buying refined oil from india, which oil coming from Russia n discounted oil

[@niwaka273]

He explains it quite well from 6:19 on. To illustrate the argument with an example: Imagine you sell cookies. Let's say preparing the dough costs 20 ct and baking them (heating up the oven etc) costs 10 ct. In total you need to sell the cookies for more than 30 ct to make profit- actually even more because selling them takes effort as well. Now back to Russia and oil. If India buys the oil very cheaply, Russia makes less profit and therefore has less money to spend on the war. I don't really see the hypocrisy because buying "Indian oil" is hurting the Russian economy. It's like buying cookies from someone who bought the original cookies only for 40 ct and reselling them for a higher price. The original cookie baker (analogy for Russia) is still making less profit which is in regard of the war a good thing.

[@harshajm843]

@@niwaka273 west countries intentionally prolonging war as to get cheap Russian refined oil from India. What thieves these western people r😁😁

[@anhconroy6172]

Haven't heard of it.

[@gouwkimdjoe2522]

Europe Problem 🇬🇧🇪🇺 Is Not World's Problems 🌍🌎🌏🗺

[@blackman7186]

EAM S. Jaishankar ?

[@anhconroy6172]

If you put it that way, then Ukraine's problems are not our problems either. But we all live on the same planet, and with such a terrible neighbor as Russia. So we must think about each other and help each other.

[@gouwkimdjoe2522]

Solving poverty🏚 and Homelessness 🤕 in Africa is The Real Human Rights and Especially soo many European countries 🇪🇺 for Scramble Africa and Nature's Resources for Their Needs 💰 and Development Countries 🚄 while African citizens Suffering impact Causes by European Countries 🇪🇺💰😈

[@raviku184]

@@anhconroy6172 what about helping Iraq , Syria, Afghanistan, Vietnam,...etc when USA invaded them? Is only White people's have Human rights ?

[@17kadiatou]

@@raviku184 the terrorist funded by Saudi Arabia who booms the twin towers hide in Iraq and Afghanistan 🇦🇫. Saudi Arabia is the front and back of the chaos in the middle east.

[@SouthernCom]

Always a treat to listen to Professor Sonnenfeld.

[@jpaul1871]

A very smart professor. All his analysis were spot on. Especially the way he defended buying of Russian oil by India and China.

[@simona4315]

For the whole of last year Germany was by and large the biggest importer of Russian oil. Although they might have moved swiftly we cannot ignore the initial momentum provided to Russia by European oil purchases which is magnitude higher, 10x higher than India or China.

[@justanotherperson2576]

They still are, the whole of Europe is. The same oil is just moving more hands before ultimately going to Europe. Russia>India>US. Si that they could say that they are buying US oil!! But US will never sell it's own oil. That's strategic reserve. This is one of the reason why the war is not gonna end anytime sooner, since it's in nobody's interest!!

[@chamarachan]

With cheaper energy resources from Russia Germany had good economic growth.

[@melolonthamelolontha9099]

​@@chamarachan And Russia too. That's over for Russia. The EU will build a lot more green energy. That is cheaper than russian energy sources.

[@cuc6410]

​@@melolonthamelolontha9099 there's nothing like greener energy

[@melolonthamelolontha9099]

@@cuc6410 😁👍

[@randalsaladbar]

Professor Sonnenfeld needs more time. Excellent overview crammed into 20 min

[@andersonlangosh6386]

Agreed, he's managed to put everything other experts are saying for hours in just 20 minutes. I think he's right about russian economy and russia as a whole having a very dark future because of the war Kremlin has started. Clearly russian people don't see it coming yet, but sooner or later they will.

[@vishalkhanna1476]

Good Evening..Natural gas now 3 years low... every dip is an opportunity looks attractive?? Pl ignore if you don't trade

[@movieklump]

The guest exerted expert analysis wrapped in a gentlemanly demeanor.

[@snaketeamnos]

Best person to listen to on this topic. Realistic on the good and the bad. And not just repeating numbers that a weird source published. More of this man please!

[@danieldach4697]

The global economy can function adequately without Russia's participation, and the Kremlin's requirement to deceive its citizens about this could lead to civil unrest in the coming days.

[@vishalkhanna1476]

Good Evening..Natural gas now 3 years low... every dip is an opportunity looks attractive?? Pl ignore this if you don't trade

[@lurven6666]

I love it when you have Prof. Sonnenfeld on. Would love to listen to him going more into detail about all of this. Its a joy to listen to his insight, knowledge and reasoning. Hope we can get an end to this war very shortly and that Russia's economy is punished for a long time after.

[@lurven6666]

Would love to hear more on his insights into the information war going on and Russian cyber terrorism as well !

[@dpelpal]

The ruble has collapsed almost 100% in line with the price cap on oil. Definitely not a good thing for russia, especially not pensioners.

[@Mimi-up5ro]

I wish for someone who knows how to do a reasonable and logical business and can rebuild Russia for Russian civilians, but everything else I totally agree.

[@dpelpal]

@@Mimi-up5ro In russia, Oligarchs and government officials come first. That's why the country doesn't have paved roads where it needs them, toilets, civil infrastructure, etc

[@halfnelson6115]

Yeah, he seems fair. No bias there...

[@s9ka972]

India 🇮🇳 buys Russian 🇷🇺 oil at fixed price, ie 70 usd per barrel . Then since USD can't be used for payment . India just pay Russia in Indian Ruppee equal to the sum of USD . Then India refine those oil and use 80% for internal use. Remaining 20% are for exporting to US which again bring USD to India

[@syjiang]

I think everyone is pretty happy to have the Indians make the profit then to let that flow to Russia.

[@JBEMultimediamadrid]

​@@syjiangthen why the complaint every now and then about India and China buying Russia oil?

[@flygonc3717]

Most countries are happy to buy Russian oil , G7 don't want we are happy to buy more 😅 oil

[@joydeep3928]

*Legendary Hypocrisy exposed* 🤣 Ukraine has been 'using U.S. aid to buy' fuel from Russia, the country Kyiv is at war with, a report has said.

[@hape3862]

​@@JBEMultimediamadrid Everyone who has understood the oil price cap knows that it is perfectly fine for India and China to buy and even resell(!) as much Russian oil as they want - as long as the price is lower than the cap. Make profits and prosper! But Putin shall not make profits.

[@estelleaustin9205]

great interview. It has left me with a few things to think over - Thanks!

[@paolopetrozzi2213]

A wonderful, Very informative interview, thanks. Always waiting for Prof. Sonnenfeld to be interviewed Just a note: Skodas are Czech cars, currently owned by VW, very good cars, nothing to do with Lada or any other Russian brand.

[@williamwilson6499]

Skoda has manufacturing plants in Russia. Currently suspended, though.

[@paolopetrozzi2213]

@@williamwilson6499 Yes, also Volkswagen and other European brands like Renault have (HAD) manufacturing plants in Russia where they assemble their cars 9Putin imposed a 50%-100% tax on imported cars some years ago), but neither Volkswagen nor Skoda (a VW brand) noRenaultul is Russian cars. Lada is a Russian car (made in collaboration with Renault-Nissan), UAZ is a Russian brand, and GAZ is a Russian brand, not Skoda. You cannot compare Lada with Skoda or VW. Prof Sonnenfeld was referring to the quality of Russian-made cars, like Lada, UAZ and GAZ, not to European cars built in Russia

[@MrtvyKenny]

@@paolopetrozzi2213 they terminated Skoda in Russia, at this moment, they are trying to sell the assets. And It is unfortunate with the error, because he mentions it multiple times.

[@denisgorjunov304]

I watched this interview and it made me laugh. No wonder citizens of western countries are so deluded - they believe all kind of lies people like this so called "professor" tell them.

[@andersonlangosh6386]

Russians can't produce a decent car, everything they have right now is mostly made in China. And they will keep lying that everything is fine, that's just how russians operate. They have a tradition of not saying the truth to their citizens. After all it's much easier to say it's all fine and it's going according to the plan instead of saying that it's going to be a rough couple years and it's only getting worse.

[@anakinskywalkerii4350]

More Jeffery Sonnenfeld! A 30-minute segment every month please! ¡Por favor! Bitte!

[@gfan83]

But real numbers say opposite to this "expert". Russia's export profits even under sanctions rise 20% in comparison with last year.

[@lukasbe4349]

@@gfan83 source?

[@gfan83]

@@lukasbe4349 Google. Export profits of Russia.

[@lukasbe4349]

@@gfan83 Google is not a source. And considering the desinformation campaign from Russia, it is really important which source you pick for your information.

[@denisgorjunov304]

I watched this interview and it made me laugh. No wonder citizens of western countries are so deluded - they believe all kind of lies people like this so called "professor" tell them.

[@GSSurry]

Clear precise interview without interruption and background music. 5 Stars

[@vishalkhanna1476]

Good Evening..Natural gas now 3 years low... every dip is an opportunity looks attractive?? Pl ignore this if you don't trade

[@aryanhu]

India has already become Europe's biggest oil supplier refining russian oil and selling in the EU...and Germany due to implementing harsh and quick energy diversification plan it impacted their economy and they are already in recession...

[@Brightly747]

Excellent analysis, thanks Professor Sonnenfeld!

[@danieldach4697]

Even countries that have amicable relations with Russia are imposing constraints and sanctions on the country. In the wake of the implementation of a price ceiling and a ban on tanker insurance, Turkey refused to accept 86% of the Russian oil it was offered.

[@vishalkhanna1476]

Good Evening..Natural gas now 3 years low... every dip is an opportunity looks attractive?? Pl

[@winfredcoorengel7203]

Ukraine flag prominently displayed behind him need I say more 😂😂

[@ayadav77]

You can spell out clearly what you mean. When our fellow "humans" are struck by a disaster, we fellow "humans" show solidarity with them. And the flag of Ukraine is the symbol of dogged resistance, against tyranny, that all freedom-loving humans are proud to display. You have an issue with that?

[@easternobolo8176]

​@@ayadav77 😂

[@whatevesike4478]

@@ayadav77 😂 the hypocrisy i can’t with y’all

[@richardmutabaruka4298]

I remember yu having a flag when Libya was struck,

[@cuc6410]

​@@ayadav77 where was the flag of Libya,serbia?

[@indiantiger4595]

I came here after india become largest supplier of Fuel to Europe 😂

[@Zaerki]

Just wanna say thanks for the quality content DW, you guys are the publication that all other news outlets should strive to emulate.

[@danieldach4697]

Russian gas exports have dipped to their lowest level in more than 20 years. In 2022, Gazprom, a major supplier of gas to key markets, exported only 100.9 billion cubic meters of gas, indicating a significant decline of 46 percent from the previous year's exports. This export volume had not fallen below 120 billion cubic meters annually since 2000.

[@vanshsapkal2826]

Go and Watch WION.... DW is nothing in comparison to it...

[@thecaptainz]

Did you know? India is the largest fuel supplier to Europe ( diesel) as now😂 3.7lakh+ barrel a day.. That is Russian oil...

[@Dialmi4Hotdogs]

@@vanshsapkal2826 you're a biased Indian who praises a biased Indian news channel. Go check their youtube page. They are shitting on every foreign country and have zero critique on India. WION is just another crappy 'news' outlet with already quite a list of scandals within their organisation.

[@vishalkhanna1476]

Good Evening..Natural gas now 3 years low... every dip is an opportunity looks attractive?? Pl ignore if you don't trade

[@richardsimms251]

Jeffrey Sonnenfeld is a very competent and reliable expert RS. Canada

[@robertschoening7769]

Great interview. A real eye-opener, especially on China-Russia dynamics. Thank you!

[@evgeniybastrykov]

even according to Chinese diplomats, China and Russia have nothing in common other than business relations, China uses Russia as a colonial to buy raw materials at low prices, because Russia no longer has anyone to sell its resources

[@planetcaravan2925]

​@@evgeniybastrykov surprised? For the first time in 500 years russia is being told what to do (by china in this case), so in that sense putin has made historic changes

[@evgeniybastrykov]

@@planetcaravan2925 you are right, Putin is again making historic changes, because the collapse of the Soviet Union was also a historic event, modern Russia is ready to repeat its fate

[@alexanderthegreat1506]

this mess wouldn't have happened if nato didn't expand towards the east.

[@Obsidian-Nebula]

@@alexanderthegreat1506 It has nothing to do with NATO and it's nobody's business what NATO does or does not

[@maximme]

Leaked document shows EU are buying Russian oil via Indian Ship destined for Indian Port but transshipment done in international waters and went to EU.

[@00nigirimeshi]

I love this professor! Please translate his interview to German so others can understand this too. Haven't seen this information in german language yet.

[@georgekung2003utube]

Russia will collapse, align with Ukraine Europe should send 1-2% of GDP to Ukraine to end Russia soon. Make America Great Again

[@PenskyMaterial]

You guys should really quit dubbing all your television programs and movies. English is not that hard to learn, if you just listen to tv in english.

[@williamwilson6499]

You can select translation into German subtitles.

[@Serbian1985]

This professor in march of 2022 predicted that “ within 6 months i see total collapse of Russian economy, it’s impossible for Russia to survive as a state with current sanctions “ He just a US government propagandist

[@jacobrandall4891]

I would really like a Japanese dub of Sonnenfeld. I feel it would be like a good intense anime

[@araara4746]

It's useless if you become a professor but your opinion is very biased. He said that Germany could build refineries at high speed, but he absolutely did not dare to say that Germany was buying at a price 4-5 times more expensive than before. The question is: How can Germany compete if energy costs are 4-5 times more expensive?

[@gijane2cantwaittoseeyou203]

By making quality products worth the price.

[@mohamadazamabdullah4191]

True

[@jaywatanabe4706]

I would love to sit and drink wine and chat global economics with Professor Sonnenfeld. I love his unpolished, colourful descriptions of the state of the Russian economy 😅 I’d love to hear his thoughts on the future of the Chinese economy.

[@yeniyeni5454]

Rusia economi flight like roket since war,China and India buy Rusia oil more than Europe. 😊😊😊

[@vishalkhanna1476]

Good Evening..Natural gas now 3 years low... every dip is an opportunity looks attractive?? Pl ignore this if you don't trade

[@JH-pv6rd]

I love videos with professor Sonnenfeld. Thank you DW

[@Kodakcompactdisc]

You’re welcome

[@vishalkhanna1476]

Good Evening..Natural gas now 3 years low... every dip is an opportunity looks attractive?? Pl ignore this if you don't trade

[@VinaySharma-xq6nw]

18:52 You have the audacity to mention if west can sanction India ?? Try that and see if west survives after sanctioning India else they would have done by now .

[@halfnelson6115]

Yeah, India will take down the west...🙄

[@pakde8002]

Always enjoy listening to Professor Sonnenfeld. These issues are complicated. Thanks DW for asking intelligent questions then giving guests time for at least a rudimentary explanation.

[@danieldach4697]

Despite maintaining cordial relations, nations are imposing restrictions and sanctions on Russia. Turkey, which historically has been a significant market for Russian oil, refused 86% of the oil it received after the introduction of a price ceiling and a ban on tanker insurance, indicating the adverse impact of these measures on Russia's exports.

[@luiso.6819]

Amazing contribution from professor Jeffrey Sonnenfeld, DW please invite him more often!

[@nithin909]

Y Western media is so worried about Russian economy. They will show their capacities on war field

[@aurumdeus1]

Their capabilities on the battlefield are directly tied to the condition of their economy. As long as Russia can keep conscripting and arming new troops, there will be an effectively endless supply of Russian troops coming forward to replace those wounded or killed. Once the economy can no longer support arming and sending out more troops, the casualties stop being replaced and the front collapses.

[@Aussie-Mocha]

We need our daily dose of msm so they have to keep producing more and more content. Good thing this 21mns was quality. 😊

[@Kodakcompactdisc]

Capacities on the battlefield, what war are you watching 😂

[@anhconroy6172]

Not worried, but probably just interested.

[@martinhartecfc]

I want to believe this but this guy thinks Skodas are Russian and when asked about India potentially signing a free trade agreement with Russia, repeated his assertion that Russia aren't making any money on the oil India is buying. Either he didn't understand this fairly basic question or he was avoiding answering it.

[@romanmoore4804]

lol its basic maths, i know russian bots arnt educated but still.... keep coping

[@martinhartecfc]

@@romanmoore4804 I'm neither Russian nor a bot. I'm happy for you to test me on that. Unless you think Russian AI is as advanced as the US and China's AI and that it can fool you.

[@javiermoya2801]

If you listen carefully he corrects it to Lada. You don't have to be pro west, doesn't mean you aren't allowed to call out Russia when they act in bad faith. Nation states are not moral entities, this is geopolitics and grand strategy. High stakes poker where everyone is cheating, Russia bluffed and got called.

[@kockleongng908]

I don't get the calculation - $45 to drill, $12 to ship, total is $57. If sell at $60, still making $3 profit. Why he kept saying not making money?

[@mohamadazamabdullah4191]

😊The oil is purchased at a much higher price but under invoiced. The amount above the price cap is paid to a local Russian entity.

[@kockleongng908]

@@mohamadazamabdullah4191 so if any incidence happen, who will pay for the portion not covered by insurance?

[@mohamadazamabdullah4191]

@@kockleongng908 Sovereign guarantees between 2 nations.

[@kockleongng908]

@@mohamadazamabdullah4191 Haha Russia and China, you trust their words? Good luck to you

[@mohamadazamabdullah4191]

@@kockleongng908 G to G at times do not have custom entries. It can be under special clearance. Payment not declared.

[@sigmundreiner3483]

Yes Prof. Sonnenfeld again. I could watch im 24/7.

[@MaryamofShomal]

When Sonnenfeld speaks, the whole world should be listening. Dude is a legend. Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦🇺🇸

[@vishalkhanna1476]

Good Evening..Natural gas now 3 years low... every dip is an opportunity looks attractive?? Pl

[@W_Bin]

Professor Jeffrey Sonnenfeld is superb. Excellent questions too, really helpful to understand what is happening. More please!

[@datrevmeister]

Awesome interview, DW! Loved and enjoyed every second of it!

[@ASH9366]

Pro Ukrainian bias professor 🤦‍♀👶🤷‍♂ Enjoy 👍

[@datrevmeister]

@@ASH9366 the world is pro-Ukranian, and anti russian, so enjoy

[@mariannabatz9733]

We pray for the victory of Ukraine. It will be a victory of good over evil a victory of the future over the past

[@GaganPreetSingh-wi8of]

خدا رحمت کنه روس ها و مرگ بر جوکر اوکراینی

[@praxxgodd203]

but Russia help india and we cannot forget that we will not break our friendship with Russia Or never cheat or betrayed any country Russia help us When whole world was against us 😢

[@RS-uh7rz]

Thanks to DW for giving this platform to the wonderful Prof. Sonnenfeld.

[@danieldach4697]

The global economy can thrive without Russia's involvement, and the Kremlin's necessity to mislead its populace regarding this fact may lead to civil dissatisfaction soon.

[@aznluvr7]

Love this guy from the first time you showed him (and cut him off quickly). Luckily DW had the good sense to listen to their viewers and continue to show his incisive analysis. There's a reason this guy teaches at Yale.

[@user-ic4ce8xb5v]

This yale professor is on the ball, best guest ever. He really knows his stuff.

[@Serbian1985]

This professor in march of 2022 predicted that “ within 6 months i see total collapse of Russian economy, it’s impossible for Russia to survive as a state with current sanctions “ He just a US government propagandist

[@paspa]

There’s 1 reply to this post. I can’t see it. I am being censored by 100%, on this particular post.

[@user-ic4ce8xb5v]

@@paspa I can't see it either it might have foul language or somethinf

[@paspa]

@@user-ic4ce8xb5v Not true. When they delete a message, it is deducted from the total replies.

[@paspa]

@@user-ic4ce8xb5v Also, if you delete your post, it is automatically deducted. You can test it. We are being censored.

[@JinX-so5yv]

Dr Sonnenfeld rocks!

[@vishalkhanna1476]

Good Evening..Natural gas now 3 years low... every dip is an opportunity looks attractive?? Pl ignore this if you don't trade

[@chensweeyew454]

If China and India is supporting Russia, so what?

[@jirachi-wishmaker9242]

"supporting" It's call trade

[@BlackholeJET369]

Why should India's 1.4 billion people suffer for Europe...?

[@101stairborne6]

@@BlackholeJET369 why should the west send medical help to India? Our company stopped sending medical supplies we donated to that country. India is NOT an ally. Let their people die, the pandemic is not over there yet. We get the hospital reports everyday from our mobile field hospital there, which we shut down. We are in country to track the numbers now

[@BlackholeJET369]

@@101stairborne6 more than that India helping the world. Go and search. Don't worry. India is the pharmacy of the world and we helping a lot of countries with free vaccines. India creating millions of jobs in Europe and Us. Maybe your country and your organizations are getting the benefit. Don't school us.

[@anhconroy6172]

Then they are sponsors of terrorism, with whom you can not do business and with whom you must crush with sanctions, as well as Russia

[@ROCKHITS572]

i could listen to jeff all day brilliant

[@mohamadazamabdullah4191]

Why is DW inviting the same person, is it for cherry picking.

[@user-st3im5ge7f]

What the professor said , for the flag behind him.

[@gaurav7333]

India has become the largest oil provider of Europe surpassing Saudi Arabia. It's only Europe which can make India rich and developed. We are really thankful to Europe

[@valetudan234]

Not really, Europe doesn't have the power to make any country "developed"

[@davidramsay7020]

The numbers on oil extraction are wrong. The full finding and producing cost is c. $42 but that includes sunk costs. The lifting cost is between $5 and $20 with an average close to $10/bbl. The transport cost sounds about right c.$12/bbl. Long short there is a net back of c. $20/bbl. This is a massive reduction in revenue to Russia which is reflected in the Q1 deficit of $29 billion. We should remember the EU blocked oil on February 5th so the Q2 deficit will likely be closer to $40 billion. Likely deficit for 2023 c. $150 billion. By that time the rouble will be down to R100:$

[@christopherscott8822]

Not wrong. I could listen to him all day

[@nae6ix]

He’s an excellent guest. I love to watch his facts and his segments on this show

[@Kodakcompactdisc]

The bringer of good news

[@evgeniybastrykov]

I like to listen to his Vell every word he says is confirmed by facts, despite the lies of the Russian government, we must understand that in the conditions of war, the Russian economy will not be able to struggle for a long time

[@mariannabatz9733]

We pray for the victory of Ukraine. It will be a victory of good over evil a victory of the future over the past

[@javanava8925]

Great interview! The professor is the man...

[@mattsapero1896]

Thanks for the fantastic, high-quality information about these issues!

[@danieldach4697]

The projections of most international organizations align with Sonnenfeld's assessment. The Kremlin's expectations of Russia's production potential are overstated.

[@mariannabatz9733]

We pray for the victory of Ukraine. It will be a victory of good over evil a victory of the future over the past

[@thecaptainz]

Did you know? India is the largest fuel supplier to Europe ( diesel) as now😂 3.7lakh+ barrel a day.. That is Russian oil...europe can't afford high price from opec...

[@vishalkhanna1476]

Good Evening..Natural gas now 3 years low... every dip is an opportunity looks attractive?? Pl ignore this if you don't trade

[@reginaldlagrone5082]

Do not fool yourself that liquefied gas, and oil is coming from Russia through a third party seller.

[@TheYomama21]

This is one of the best guests I have seen on this program

[@VitalityMassage]

I love that guy. He's SO on it!

[@vishalkhanna1476]

Good Evening..Natural gas now 3 years low... every dip is an opportunity looks attractive?? Pl

[@45641560456405640563]

Some really interesting insights.

[@ericgeorge7874]

DW News: Please find unbiased guests. Flying certain flags in the background, who is the viewer to believe? Whether real or imagined content, image counts.

[@ghhghh8554]

DW are looking for this people with this image as they are paid to do so.

[@isahauhnar3712]

they are west..so for joke i use to watch DW.😂

[@jxon6246]

jeffrey sonnenfeld has gotten grimmer with each new interview. It's like he is getting tired of telling everyone do not believe social media and these pseudo-institutions tell us. But at this point is much of a heavy topic to deal with. Stay Strong Jeffrey. time will show us, you were right all along.

[@askeladd60]

Exhausted of Russia proving him wrong about his calls of economic collapse 😂 😂

[@jxon6246]

@@askeladd60 have you been watching the news?

[@ThePedroski007]

@@askeladd60 that’s the point. Russia hasn’t been reporting to the imf since the start of the war, so the only thing Russia is proving, is that they have something to hide.

[@askeladd60]

@@jxon6246 have you been watching how even the IMF is forecasting Russia to outgrow countries like Germany or the UK. Not to mention the huge sovereign debt problems that the EU, the Us and Japan are going to face within the next couple of years

[@jxon6246]

@@askeladd60 Have you even watching how russian 3 weeks ago told their economy was doing well, and a week after that told that there was goina to be a hard hit. And we know Putler never backtracks, so things must be very wrong if even he has to ackowledge some kind of loses. And you should have seen Sonnenfeld interviews to understand why IMF is simply basing his statements on information gotten from the russian state, who doesn't want to look bad. Information coming from the Russian state is not reliable. period.

[@elizabethr4107]

Fantastic segment! Tysm

[@vishalkhanna1476]

Good Evening..Natural gas now 3 years low... every dip is an opportunity looks attractive?? P

[@oorzuis1419]

really find Jeffrey Sonnenfeld's comments great to hear his broad perspective is like fresh air, his insight is something I'll miss a lot in other geopolitical commentaries.

[@123saycheese]

Did he just slipped and said we “exploit” them (Africa) for metals… 😅

[@pedromiguellima4374]

Great interview! Professor deserves more time share. Congrats

[@vishalkhanna1476]

Good Evening..Natural gas now 3 years low... every dip is an opportunity looks attractive?? Pl ignore this if you don't trade

[@brunodepotter2890]

Excellent interview, but Skoda is a Czech company owned by VW and exports quite a lot of cars.

[@tomasnozka1]

Great interview

[@vishalkhanna1476]

Good Evening..Natural gas now 3 years low... every dip is an opportunity looks attractive?? Pl ignore this if you don't trade

[@lovyrituraj]

He says this every 3 months , if sanctions were that effective Iran would have been a failed state , bigger countries find ways , plus truly independent countries do not give a F about US sanctions

[@ThePedroski007]

Even Iran isn’t under sanctions the way Russia is. Closest would have been South Africa, and they collapsed.

[@postergmail6202]

So are u suggesting Iran is not a failed state? I mean really?

[@marilenaganea6578]

Nobody really tightened the screws on Iran... The sanctions on Russia are not on full applied either... Nobody want a country that has nukes in full disarray

[@ThePedroski007]

@@postergmail6202 it hasn’t collapsed, has it? In the short-term, the most probable outcome is for the political-economic status quo to remain in place.

[@Apjooz]

Iran is a docile puppy and so will Russia be.

[@fredcox961]

Thank you for conducting an informative interview. Thank you especially for letting Dr. Sonnenfeld speak freely and complete his statements. He is well worth hearing. You did much better this time than in a previous interview when DW shamed itself by the interviewer's repeatedly cutting Dr. Sonnenfeld off. This interview was vastly improved.

[@vishalkhanna1476]

Good Evening..Natural gas now 3 years low... every dip is an opportunity looks attractive?? Pl ignore if you don't trade

[@pak_anggoro]

I actually watch this twice. No sugar coating here. Def no BS Said is as it is. Straight to the facts and figures.

[@kennethlavigne1288]

Alot of great information... smart man

[@ShadowHawk99]

2 hour interview with the profresor!

[@gautruc]

Prof. Sonnenfeld was trying to speak as fast as he can to bring speedy information for audience. And especially for someone who absorbs information as much as I do, it's great.

[@vishalkhanna1476]

Good Evening..Natural gas now 3 years low... every dip is an opportunity looks attractive?? Pl ignore this if you don't trade

[@melidareichert6720]

Following the establishment of the price cap and tanker insurance ban, Turkey declined 86% of Russian oil. Professor Sonnenfeld asserts that the Russian economy's outlook is far more dismal than the International Monetary Fund's projections, and that Russian oil exports, sold at significantly reduced rates, do not promote economic expansion. Most international groups share Sonnenfeld's perspective on this issue.

[@Thelastsamurai4]

I want to ask a question, why European countries are buying the same Russian oil from india ??? They want india to stop buying oil from Russia while they are knowingly buying the oil. Isn’t that hypocritical?

[@cptgone]

Great to get the REAL lowdown from professor Sonnenfeld. DW rocks!

[@vishalkhanna1476]

Good Evening..Natural gas now 3 years low... every dip is an opportunity looks attractive?? Pl ignore this if you don't trade

[@CHMichael]

We keep on hearing that -.

[@ManyThanx]

Škoda company is 🇨🇿 owned by 🇩🇪 (Volkswagen) Not sure why he mentions it a few times as a 🇷🇺 product, probably just mixed up the names. The rest of the information which is more important might be 100% accurate, still reminds me to fact check everything you can.

[@KimB10M]

I think Professor Sonnenfeld is not strong on European car brands. 😅

[@eng.luizgustavo8153]

It's always a pleasure to find at least one Econominst on the Internet who is not afraid to tell the truth about Russian Economy.

[@Nanobrker]

Glad you found your safe space.

[@dpelpal]

@@Nanobrker No safe places anymore in russia, eh Karen?

[@Nanobrker]

@@dpelpal and that is based on what facts kiddo???? 🤣🤣😂😂 I know your kind isn't known to be educated and aware about anyone/anything other than your own race/immediate surroundings in your basement where you dwell, but perhaps not be so smug about it eh.... Peepee

[@David-en6ro]

In fact there are a lot who will analyse Russian economy and will tell u the truth…. The most surprising thing is however that they don’t discuss their own economy…. Just look at the numbers shared by Bloomberg economics about the countries who will be facing recession u will find the g7 countries at the top getting hit and Russia somewhere in the middle….. I am not siding with any country but Atleast look at yourselves first then onto your enemy…. But if these media channels tell u the truth the ppl in general are going to be furious and that’s something they can’t afford so it’s better for them to keep ppl in ignorance I guess….

[@dpelpal]

@@David-en6ro It's not better for them to keep their _own_ people in ignorance. Which they try hard to do, and are failing at.....😏

[@mburton6187]

I love Mr. Sonnefeld.

[@navalfa7291]

Do you want to hold his hands?

[@olaf3918]

Ok now India surpassed Saudi Arabia in exporting refined petroleum products to the Europe... 🤷🤷🤷🤷

[@freedoompictures6839]

Skoda is not a Russian car. It's a Czech brand and one of the oldest and most respected car producers in Europe. It's currently a part of Volkswagen Group.

[@moffig1]

I love this professor. Super interesting information. Please interview him more often!

[@danieldach4697]

Russian gas exports have plummeted to the lowest point in over two decades. In 2022, Gazprom, which is a major provider of gas to significant markets, exported only 100.9 billion cubic meters of gas, indicating a significant decline of 46 percent compared to the previous year's exports. Since 2000, this level of exports had never been lower than 120 billion cubic meters annually.

[@mariannabatz9733]

We pray for the victory of Ukraine. It will be a victory of good over evil a victory of the future over the past

[@vishalkhanna1476]

Good Evening..Natural gas now 3 years low... every dip is an opportunity looks attractive?? Pl ignore this if you don't trade

[@vitostan3134]

Bring him back more often

[@vishalkhanna1476]

Good Evening..Natural gas now 3 years low... every dip is an opportunity looks attractive?? Pl ignore this if you don't trade

[@TheyCallMeNewb]

Such console to be witnessed in this one.

[@axis_8]

Sonnenfeld is a revelation! Thank you for superb quality and clarity!

[@mohamadazamabdullah4191]

Revelation for the imbecilles.

[@anhconroy6172]

Agreed

[@BrilliantInvesting-jh4mb]

India 🇮🇳 has every right to buy Russian oil But, shameless EU is buying gas and oil from Russia Switzerland is going one step ahead and buying gold as well Poland banned Ukrainian grains and punishing Ukrainian farmers 😂😂😂

[@zeronim1965]

Japan can buy RU oil for any price All EU still have a lot of resources trades with RU And other countries in EU didn't ban UA grains and punishing their farmers 😂 And all this while someone trying to save faces as "independent" countries 🤣

[@np2917]

Yes this gas is 4x or more costly for Germany, and what about other commodities Germany was buying from Russia 😇

[@ghhghh8554]

Who cares ,the most important is that the women and the 'professor' are enjoying this comedy for which are getting good amount of money

[@youareliedtobythemedia]

Strange, because the border oil and gas prices are below pre war levels now.

[@NewBeginnings413]

@NP, It's not 4 times as much. You're saying that it went up 400% 😂. In reality, it's about 20% higher until the situation is fixed. And no one in Europe is complaining.

[@ElRabito]

Wrong. Gas is cheaper than before the war, look it up before you post bs.

[@np2917]

@@ElRabito good enjoy 😀